FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

EVALUATION OF NON-STATIONARITY IN ANNUAL MAXIMUM FLOOD SERIES OF MODERATELY IMPAIRED WATERSHEDS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

United States federal agencies assess flood risk using Bulletin 17B procedures which assume annual maximum flood series are stationary. This represents a significant limitation of current flood frequency models as the flood distribution is thereby assumed to be unaffected by trends or periodicity of atmospheric/climatic variables and/or anthropogenic activities. The validity of this assumption is at the core of this thesis, which aims to improve understanding of the forms and potential causes of non-stationarity in flood series for moderately impaired watersheds in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern US. Prior studies investigated non-stationarity in flood series for unimpaired watersheds; however, as the majority of streams are located in areas of increasing human activity, relative and coupled impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors need to be considered such that non-stationary flood frequency models can be developed for flood risk forecasting over relevant planning horizons for large scale water resources planning and management.

Efficient algorithms for beacon routing in polygons

In a paper by Biro et al. [7], a novel twist on guarding in art galleries is introduced. A beacon is a fixed point with an attraction pull that can move points within the polygon. Points move greedily to monotonically decrease their Euclidean distance to the beacon by moving straight towards the beacon or sliding on the edges of the polygon. The beacon attracts a point if the point eventually reaches the beacon. Unlike most variations of the art gallery problem, the beacon attraction has the intriguing property of being asymmetric, leading to separate definitions of attraction region and inverse attraction region. The attraction region of a beacon is the set of points that it attracts. For a given point in the polygon, the inverse attraction region is the set of beacon locations that can attract the point. We first study the characteristics of beacon attraction. We consider the quality of a "successful" beacon attraction and provide an upper bound of $\sqrt{2}$ on the ratio between the length of the beacon trajectory and the length of the geodesic distance in a simple polygon. In addition, we provide an example of a polygon with holes in which this ratio is unbounded. Next we consider the problem of computing the shortest beacon watchtower in a polygonal terrain and present an $O(n \log n)$ time algorithm to solve this problem. In doing this, we introduce $O(n \log n)$ time algorithms to compute the beacon kernel and the inverse beacon kernel in a monotone polygon. We also prove that $\Omega(n \log n)$ time is a lower bound for computing the beacon kernel of a monotone polygon. Finally, we study the inverse attraction region of a point in a simple polygon. We present algorithms to efficiently compute the inverse attraction region of a point for simple, monotone, and terrain polygons with respective time complexities $O(n^2)$, $O(n \log n)$ and $O(n)$. We show that the inverse attraction region of a point in a simple polygon has linear complexity and the problem of computing the inverse attraction region has a lower bound of $\Omega(n \log n)$ in monotone polygons and consequently in simple polygons.

Query routing in cooperative semi-structured peer-to-peer information retrieval networks

Conventional web search engines are centralised in that a single entity crawls and indexes the documents selected for future retrieval, and the relevance models used to determine which documents are relevant to a given user query. As a result, these search engines suffer from several technical drawbacks such as handling scale, timeliness and reliability, in addition to ethical concerns such as commercial manipulation and information censorship. Alleviating the need to rely entirely on a single entity, Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Information Retrieval (IR) has been proposed as a solution, as it distributes the functional components of a web search engine – from crawling and indexing documents, to query processing – across the network of users (or, peers) who use the search engine. This strategy for constructing an IR system poses several efficiency and effectiveness challenges which have been identified in past work. Accordingly, this thesis makes several contributions towards advancing the state of the art in P2P-IR effectiveness by improving the query processing and relevance scoring aspects of a P2P web search. Federated search systems are a form of distributed information retrieval model that route the user’s information need, formulated as a query, to distributed resources and merge the retrieved result lists into a final list. P2P-IR networks are one form of federated search in routing queries and merging result among participating peers. The query is propagated through disseminated nodes to hit the peers that are most likely to contain relevant documents, then the retrieved result lists are merged at different points along the path from the relevant peers to the query initializer (or namely, customer). However, query routing in P2P-IR networks is considered as one of the major challenges and critical part in P2P-IR networks; as the relevant peers might be lost in low-quality peer selection while executing the query routing, and inevitably lead to less effective retrieval results. This motivates this thesis to study and propose query routing techniques to improve retrieval quality in such networks. Cluster-based semi-structured P2P-IR networks exploit the cluster hypothesis to organise the peers into similar semantic clusters where each such semantic cluster is managed by super-peers. In this thesis, I construct three semi-structured P2P-IR models and examine their retrieval effectiveness. I also leverage the cluster centroids at the super-peer level as content representations gathered from cooperative peers to propose a query routing approach called Inverted PeerCluster Index (IPI) that simulates the conventional inverted index of the centralised corpus to organise the statistics of peers’ terms. The results show a competitive retrieval quality in comparison to baseline approaches. Furthermore, I study the applicability of using the conventional Information Retrieval models as peer selection approaches where each peer can be considered as a big document of documents. The experimental evaluation shows comparative and significant results and explains that document retrieval methods are very effective for peer selection that brings back the analogy between documents and peers. Additionally, Learning to Rank (LtR) algorithms are exploited to build a learned classifier for peer ranking at the super-peer level. The experiments show significant results with state-of-the-art resource selection methods and competitive results to corresponding classification-based approaches. Finally, I propose reputation-based query routing approaches that exploit the idea of providing feedback on a specific item in the social community networks and manage it for future decision-making. The system monitors users’ behaviours when they click or download documents from the final ranked list as implicit feedback and mines the given information to build a reputation-based data structure. The data structure is used to score peers and then rank them for query routing. I conduct a set of experiments to cover various scenarios including noisy feedback information (i.e, providing positive feedback on non-relevant documents) to examine the robustness of reputation-based approaches. The empirical evaluation shows significant results in almost all measurement metrics with approximate improvement more than 56% compared to baseline approaches. Thus, based on the results, if one were to choose one technique, reputation-based approaches are clearly the natural choices which also can be deployed on any P2P network.

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

Vehicle routing and location routing problems with minimum latency: algorithms and models

Latency can be defined as the sum of the arrival times at the customers. Minimum latency problems are specially relevant in applications related to humanitarian logistics. This thesis presents algorithms for solving a family of vehicle routing problems with minimum latency. First the latency location routing problem (LLRP) is considered. It consists of determining the subset of depots to be opened, and the routes that a set of homogeneous capacitated vehicles must perform in order to visit a set of customers such that the sum of the demands of the customers assigned to each vehicle does not exceed the capacity of the vehicle. For solving this problem three metaheuristic algorithms combining simulated annealing and variable neighborhood descent, and an iterated local search (ILS) algorithm, are proposed. Furthermore, the multi-depot cumulative capacitated vehicle routing problem (MDCCVRP) and the multi-depot k-traveling repairman problem (MDk-TRP) are solved with the proposed ILS algorithm. The MDCCVRP is a special case of the LLRP in which all the depots can be opened, and the MDk-TRP is a special case of the MDCCVRP in which the capacity constraints are relaxed. Finally, a LLRP with stochastic travel times is studied. A two-stage stochastic programming model and a variable neighborhood search algorithm are proposed for solving the problem. Furthermore a sampling method is developed for tackling instances with an infinite number of scenarios. Extensive computational experiments show that the proposed methods are effective for solving the problems under study.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.

Message-oriented Middleware per Routing Acceleration basato su eBPF/XDP in Contesto Serverless

Negli ultimi anni la necessità di processare e mantenere dati di qualsiasi natura è aumentata considerevolmente, in aggiunta a questo, l’obsolescenza del modello centralizzato ha contribuito alla sempre più frequente adozione del modello distribuito. Inevitabile dunque l’aumento di traffico che attraversa i nodi appartenenti alle infrastrutture, un traffico sempre più in aumento e che con l’avvento dell’IoT, dei Big Data, del Cloud Computing, del Serverless Computing etc., ha raggiunto picchi elevatissimi. Basti pensare che se prima i dati erano contenuti in loco, oggi non è assurdo pensare che l’archiviazione dei propri dati sia completamente affidata a terzi. Così come cresce, quindi, il traffico che attraversa i nodi facenti parte di un’infrastruttura, cresce la necessità che questo traffico sia filtrato e gestito dai nodi stessi. L’obbiettivo di questa tesi è quello di estendere un Message-oriented Middleware, in grado di garantire diverse qualità di servizio per la consegna di messaggi, in modo da accelerarne la fase di routing verso i nodi destinazione. L’estensione consiste nell’aggiungere al Message-oriented Middleware, precedentemente implementato, la funzione di intercettare i pacchetti in arrivo (che nel caso del middleware in questione possono rappresentare la propagazione di eventi) e redirigerli verso un nuovo nodo in base ad alcuni parametri. Il Message-oriented Middleware oggetto di tesi sarà considerato il message broker di un modello pub/sub, pertanto la redirezione deve avvenire con tempi molto bassi di latenza e, a tal proposito, deve avvenire senza l’uscita dal kernel space del sistema operativo. Per questo motivo si è deciso di utilizzare eBPF, in particolare il modulo XDP, che permette di scrivere programmi che eseguono all’interno del kernel.

Sviluppo e validazione di un algoritmo di Vehicle Routing per un caso di logistica distributiva in collaborazione con Toyota Material Handling Italia

L’elaborato descrive le fasi di progettazione, programmazione e validazione di un programma sviluppato in ambiente Java per il Vehicle Routing Problem. L’algoritmo implementato è di tipo euristico costruttivo primal e presenta funzionalità specifiche per la gestione di un elevato numero di vincoli e l’applicazione a casistiche reali. La validazione è stata effettuata su una base dati reale e in confronto a dataset di cui è nota la soluzione ottima. Il programma è stato progettato per risultare flessibile alle richieste dell’utente e utilizzabile per valutazioni economiche in ambito consulenziale.

Validation of an intermediate-complexity flood risk model for climate change adaptation

In questo lavoro di tesi viene presentato e validato un modello di rischio di alluvione a complessità intermedia per scenari climatici futuri. Questo modello appartiene a quella categoria di strumenti che mirano a soddisfare le esigenze identificate dal World Climate Research Program (WRCP) per affrontare gli effetti del cambiamento climatico. L'obiettivo perseguito è quello di sviluppare, seguendo un approccio ``bottom-up" al rischio climatico regionale, strumenti che possano aiutare i decisori a realizzare l'adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Il modello qui presentato è interamente basato su dati open-source forniti dai servizi Copernicus. Il contributo di questo lavoro di tesi riguarda lo sviluppo di un modello, formulato da (Ruggieri et al.), per stimare i danni di eventi alluvionali fluviali per specifici i livelli di riscaldamento globale (GWL). Il modello è stato testato su tre bacini idrografici di medie dimensioni in Emilia-Romagna, Panaro, Reno e Secchia. In questo lavoro, il modello viene sottoposto a test di sensibilità rispetto a un'ipotesi enunciata nella formulazione del modello, poi vengono effettuate analisi relative all'ensemble multi-modello utilizzato per le proiezioni. Il modello viene quindi validato, confrontando i danni stimati nel clima attuale per i tre fiumi con i danni osservati e confrontando le portate simulate con quelle osservate. Infine, vengono stimati i danni associati agli eventi alluvionali in tre scenari climatici futuri caratterizzati da GWL di 1.5° C, 2.0° C e 3.0°C.

Analisi e studio computazionale di solver per problemi di routing di interesse industriale

Il Routing rappresenta uno dei problemi più studiati nell’ambito della Ricerca Operativa in quanto offre molteplici possibilità di ottimizzazione da cui possono derivare altrettanti vantaggi per le aziende che decidono di gestirlo in maniera strutturata. Uno dei principali ambiti di applicazione del routing è la pianificazione operativa del trasporto merci a clienti sparsi in un determinato territorio. Ci sono aziende che devono organizzare la loro Logistica distributiva ogni giorno. Ormai è diventato evidente che la realizzazione di questo processo mediante modalità “standard”, senza l’utilizzo di appositi strumenti di ottimizzazione, non solo porta alla perdita di occasioni importanti in termini di vantaggi raggiungibili, ma è anche molto più dispendiosa a livello di tempo richiesto. Molte aziende si stanno quindi affidando a soluzioni SW che si vadano ad integrare con i loro processi decisionali. Questi sistemi hanno alla base delle componenti algoritmiche in grado di trovare la migliore soluzione possibile per la tipologia specifica di Routing da affrontare. Per questi motivi, lo sviluppo di algoritmi in grado di risolvere questo problema rappresenta una parte consistente della letteratura scientifica in ambito di ottimizzazione. In questo elaborato si andranno a definire le principali caratteristiche di un problema di Routing in forma base e nelle sue varianti principali. Si descriveranno le caratteristiche dei problemi di Routing incontrati da Optit S.r.l, un’azienda che opera nel settore dello sviluppo di soluzioni SW di ottimizzazione. Nel fare ciò, si cercherà di trovare sovrapposizione con quanto descritto in letteratura. Infine, si descriveranno alcuni solver Open-Source per risolvere problemi di Routing e si mostreranno i risultati da essi ottenuti su alcuni casi di interesse industriale.

Germinação e crescimento de Calophyllum brasiliense (Clusiaceae), uma espécie típica de florestas inundadas

Soil waterlogging and the subsequent reduction in the amount of oxygen available for the respiration of the root system selected, along the evolutive process, plants able to thrive in seasonally or permanently flooded areas. In neotropical plants there are many types of adaptations to flooding. In this paper we present the results of the work carried out with seeds and seedlings of C brasiliense subjected to hypoxia during germination and early development. C brasiliense seeds are not photoblastic and survive up to three months burried in a water saturated substrate, but germination only takes place in well-drained soils. Soil waterlogging does not inhibit seedling growth and there are no apparent morphological changes of the aerial part of flooded plants. New and aerated roots that make plant survival possible replace old and spoiled roots. In contrast to many typical species of flood-prone areas where growth is inhibited by oxygen stress. C. brasiliense seedlings seem to be well adapted to their waterlogged environment. Seed dispersion, the absence of photoblastic response as well as seed and seedling capacity of surviving and growing in waterlogged soils contribute to the wide geographic distribution of C. brasiliense always associated with areas subjected to soil waterlogging.

Ituglanis mambai, a new subterranean catfish from a karst area of Central Brazil, rio Tocantins basin (Siluriformes: Trichomycteridae)

Ituglanis mambai, new species, is described from a cave in the Mambaí karst area, State of Goiás, Central Brazil. The new species distinguishes from epigean and cave congeners by the combination of the following characteristics: posterior supraoccipital fontanel absent; pectoral-fin rays usually i,7; six pleural ribs; total vertebrae 37-38 behind Weberian apparatus; shorter predorsal length (65.1-70.8% SL); shorter caudal peduncle length (8.4-11.9% SL); shorter dorsal-fin base length (7.7-11.3% SL); wider interobital width (29.2-36.5% HL); larger mouth width (43.4-64.0% HL); intermediate between epigean and other cave Ituglanis species as regards to both eyes (diameter varying from 0.5 to1.0 mm in adults, 7.8-10.1 % HL) and pigmentation, composed by irregular light brown spots along the body. The latter indicate the troglobitic status for I. mambai. In addition, this species has the maxillae with a discrete medial-posterior projection; fronto-lacrimal one half-length of the maxillae and pointed backwards; posterior process of palatine half its length, with a tenuous medial concavity; 14 dorsal and 12 ventral procurrent rays. In the natural habitat, I. mambai displayed cryptobiotic habits, trying to hide in the graveled bottom or under boulders when disturbed, apparently showing a negative response to light. It was observed a preference to slow-moving waters. Recent flood marks were observed in the stream conduit in March/April 2007 (end of the rainy season) when less individuals were observed on 300 m of the subterranean stream compared to September 2004 (end of the dry season).

Alluvial-eolian interaction in a Cambrian rift margin: the Pedra das Torrinhas and Pedra Pintada formations (Guaritas Group, RS)

This work presents a study of selected outcrops from the Pedra das Torrinhas Formation of the Guaritas Group (Cambrian, Camaquã Basin), near the basin bordering Encantadas Fault Zone. The studied succession includes alluvial fan deposits that pass laterally into eolian deposits. Sedimentary facies and architectural element analysis were performed, followed by sedimentary petrography and microscopic porosity analysis, aiming to characterize the porosity of the deposits and its spatial distribution. The main objective was to contribute to a better understanding of the porosity spatial distribution in depositional systems characterized by the interaction between alluvial and eolian processes, with special reference to deposits formed prior to the development of terrestrial plants. Porosity values are related to depositional processes, with higher porosities associated to eolian dune deposits (mean of 8.4%), and lower porosity related to interdunes (mean of 3.4%) and alluvial fans (mean of 4.3%). Architectural elements analysis revealed the spatial relationships of these deposits, a response to the interplay of the eolian and alluvial processes. The integration of porosity data reveals that the interaction of alluvial and eolian processes results in heterogeneous distribution of porosity at the facies association scale. Eolian reworking of alluvial facies increases porosity whereas sheet-flood and other alluvial processes in the interdune areas reduce porosity.

Circulation and suspended particulate matter transport in a tidally dominated estuary: caravelas estuary, Bahia, Brazil

The circulation and transport of suspended particulate matter in the Caravelas Estuary are assessed. Nearly-synoptic hourly hydrographic, current (ADCP velocity and volume transport) and suspended particulate matter data were collected during a full semidiurnal spring tide, on the two transects Boca do Tomba and Barra Velha and on longitudinal sections at low and high tide. On the first transect the peak ebb currents (-1.5 ms-1) were almost twice as strong as those of the wider and shallow Barra Velha inlet (-0.80 ms-1) and the peak flood currents were 0.75 and 0.60 ms-1, respectively. Due to the strong tidal currents both inlets had weak vertical salinity stratification and were classified with the Stratification-circulation Diagram as Type 2a (partially mixed-weakly stratified) and Type 1a (well mixed). Volume transports were very close, ranging from -3,500 to 3,100 m³s-1 at the ebb and flood, respectively, with a residual -630 m³s-1. The concentration of the suspended particulate matter was closely related to the tidal variation and decreased landwards from 50 mg.L-1 at the estuary mouth, to 10 mg.L-1 at distances of 9 and 16 km for the low and high tide experiments, respectively. The total residual SPM transport was out of the estuary at rates of -18 tons per tidal cycle.