Observations on the dipteran fauna in a focus of dermal leishmaniasis in the State of Minas Gerais: II. The distribution of families in relation to their medical, veterinary and economic importance

Miniature light traps used to collect Phlebotominae in a focus of dermal leishmaniasis in the eastern part of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Over a period of seven months, the other Diptera captured in 179 light trap samples were identified to family level. The traps were placed in eight localities which constituted three different biotopes: three woodland aresas, cultivated land, and a peridomestic site. A comparison is made between the totals of Dipeterans collected in each biotope, the total numbers of families collected in each biotope and the estimated indices of diversity. Dendograms representing the degrees of association between families of Diptera in different biotopes are presented. Some families of Diptera are uniformly distributed throughout the study area; a few families seem to have become adapted to areas where human activity has induced the greatest ecological changes. The impact between Dipterans and human well-being is discussed. The availabel evidence indicates that transmission of dermal leishmaniasis does not occur in areas where sand flies can be captured in greatest densities.

The change of behavior of two strains of Leishmania after cultivation in a defined medium

Attempts have been made to characterize two strains of Leishmania that became infective to golden hamsters only after they had been maintained for several years in a chemically defined culture medium. Observations were made on the growth rates of promastigotes in vitro, course of infection in hamsters, morphology of amastigotes, and electrophoretic mobility patterns of eight isoenzymes. Information was obtained about the buoyant densities of n-DNA and k-DNA, and one strain was tested against monoclonal antibodies. The identity of both strains remains obscure.

Correlation of wear in vivo and six laboratory wear methods.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the correlation between clinical wear rates of restorative materials and enamel (TRAC Research Foundation, Provo, USA) and the results of six laboratory test methods (ACTA, Alabama (generalized, localized), Ivoclar (vertical, volumetric), Munich, OHSU (abrasion, attrition), Zurich). METHODS: Individual clinical wear data were available from clinical trials that were conducted by TRAC Research Foundation (formerly CRA) together with general practitioners. For each of the n=28 materials (21 composite resins for intra-coronal restorations [20 direct and 1 indirect], 5 resin materials for crowns, 1 amalgam, enamel) a minimum of 30 restorations had been placed in posterior teeth, mainly molars. The recall intervals were up to 5 years with the majority of materials (n=27) being monitored, however, only for up to 2 years. For the laboratory data, the databases MEDLINE and IADR abstracts were searched for wear data on materials which were also clinically tested by TRAC Research Foundation. Only those data for which the same test parameters (e.g. number of cycles, loading force, type of antagonist) had been published were included in the study. A different quantity of data was available for each laboratory method: Ivoclar (n=22), Zurich (n=20), Alabama (n=17), OHSU and ACTA (n=12), Munich (n=7). The clinical results were summed up in an index and a linear mixed model was fitted to the log wear measurements including the following factors: material, time (0.5, 1, 2 and 3 years), tooth (premolar/molar) and gender (male/female) as fixed effects, and patient as random effect. Relative ranks were created for each material and method; the same was performed with the clinical results. RESULTS: The mean age of the subjects was 40 (±12) years. The materials had been mostly applied in molars (81%) and 95% of the intracoronal restorations were Class II restorations. The mean number of individual wear data per material was 25 (range 14-42). The mean coefficient of variation of clinical wear data was 53%. The only significant correlation was reached by OHSU (abrasion) with a Spearman r of 0.86 (p=0.001). Zurich, ACTA, Alabama generalized wear and Ivoclar (volume) had correlation coefficients between 0.3 and 0.4. For Zurich, Alabama generalized wear and Munich, the correlation coefficient improved if only composites for direct use were taken into consideration. The combination of different laboratory methods did not significantly improve the correlation. SIGNIFICANCE: The clinical wear of composite resins is mainly dependent on differences between patients and less on the differences between materials. Laboratory methods to test conventional resins for wear are therefore less important, especially since most of them do not reflect the clinical wear.

Two's company, three's a crowd: experimental evaluation of the evolutionary maintenance of trioecy in Mercurialis annua (Euphorbiaceae).

Trioecy is an uncommon sexual system in which males, females, and hermaphrodites co-occur as three clearly different gender classes. The evolutionary stability of trioecy is unclear, but would depend on factors such as hermaphroditic sex allocation and rates of outcrossing vs. selfing. Here, trioecious populations of Mercurialis annua are described for the first time. We examined the frequencies of females, males and hermaphrodites across ten natural populations and evaluated the association between the frequency of females and plant densities. Previous studies have shown that selfing rates in this species are density-dependent and are reduced in the presence of males, which produce substantially more pollen than hermaphrodites. Accordingly, we examined the evolutionary stability of trioecy using an experiment in which we (a) indirectly manipulated selfing rates by altering plant densities and the frequency of males in a fully factorial manner across 20 experimental plots and (b) examined the effect of these manipulations on the frequency of the three sex phenotypes in the next generation of plants. In the parental generation, we measured the seed and pollen allocations of hermaphrodites and compared them with allocations by unisexual plants. In natural populations, females occurred at higher frequencies in denser patches, a finding consistent with our expectations. Under our experimental conditions, however, no combination of plant densities and male frequencies was associated with increased frequencies of females. Our results suggest that the factors that regulate female frequencies in trioecious populations of M. annua are independent of those regulating male frequencies (density), and that the stable co-existence of all three sex phenotypes within populations is unlikely.

Niche conservatism in non-native birds in Europe: niche unfilling rather than niche expansion

Aim Niche conservatism, or the extent to which niches are conserved across space and time, is of special concern for the study of non-native species as it underlies predictions of invasion risk. Based on the occurrence of 28 non-native birds in Europe, we assess to what extent Grinnellian realized niches are conserved during invasion, formulate hypotheses to explain the variation in observed niche changes and test how well species distribution models can predict non-native bird occurrence in Europe. Location Europe. Methods To quantify niche changes, a recent method that applies kernel smoothers to densities of species occurrence in a gridded environmental space was used. This corrects for differences in the availability of environments between study areas and allows discrimination between 'niche expansion' into environments new to the species and 'niche unfilling', whereby the species only partially fills its niche in the invaded range. Predictions of non-native bird distribution in Europe were generated using several distribution modelling techniques. Results Niche overlap between native and non-native bird populations is low, but niche changes are smaller for species having a higher propagule pressure and that were introduced longer ago. Non-native birds in Europe occupy a subset of the environments they inhabit in their native ranges. Niche expansion into novel environments is rare for most species, allowing species distribution models to accurately predict invasion risk. Main conclusions Because of the recent nature of most bird introductions, species occupy only part of the suitable environments available in the invaded range. This signals that apart from purely ecological factors, patterns of niche conservatism may also be contingent on population-specific historical factors. These results also suggest that many claims of niche differences may be due to a partial filling of the native niche in the invaded range and thus do not represent true niche changes.

Challenging recommended oral and intravenous voriconazole doses for improved efficacy and safety: population pharmacokinetics-based analysis of adult patients with invasive fungal infections.

BACKGROUND: Recommended oral voriconazole (VRC) doses are lower than intravenous doses. Because plasma concentrations impact efficacy and safety of therapy, optimizing individual drug exposure may improve these outcomes. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic analysis (NONMEM) was performed on 505 plasma concentration measurements involving 55 patients with invasive mycoses who received recommended VRC doses. RESULTS: A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best fitted the data. VRC clearance was 5.2 L/h, the volume of distribution was 92 L, the absorption rate constant was 1.1 hour(-1), and oral bioavailability was 0.63. Severe cholestasis decreased VRC elimination by 52%. A large interpatient variability was observed on clearance (coefficient of variation [CV], 40%) and bioavailability (CV 84%), and an interoccasion variability was observed on bioavailability (CV, 93%). Lack of response to therapy occurred in 12 of 55 patients (22%), and grade 3 neurotoxicity occurred in 5 of 55 patients (9%). A logistic multivariate regression analysis revealed an independent association between VRC trough concentrations and probability of response or neurotoxicity by identifying a therapeutic range of 1.5 mg/L (>85% probability of response) to 4.5 mg/L (<15% probability of neurotoxicity). Population-based simulations with the recommended 200 mg oral or 300 mg intravenous twice-daily regimens predicted probabilities of 49% and 87%, respectively, for achievement of 1.5 mg/L and of 8% and 37%, respectively, for achievement of 4.5 mg/L. With 300-400 mg twice-daily oral doses and 200-300 mg twice-daily intravenous doses, the predicted probabilities of achieving the lower target concentration were 68%-78% for the oral regimen and 70%-87% for the intravenous regimen, and the predicted probabilities of achieving the upper target concentration were 19%-29% for the oral regimen and 18%-37% for the intravenous regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Higher oral than intravenous VRC doses, followed by individualized adjustments based on measured plasma concentrations, improve achievement of the therapeutic target that maximizes the probability of therapeutic response and minimizes the probability of neurotoxicity. These findings challenge dose recommendations for VRC.

Increasing respiratory dead space improves sleep disordered breathing and hypoxemia in patients with chronic mountain sickness

Background: Chronic mountain sickness (CMS), which is characterised by hypoxemia, erythrocytosis and pulmonary hypertension, is a major public health problem in high-altitude dwellers. The only existing treatment is descent to low altitude, an option that for social reasons almost never exists. Sleep disordered breathing may represent an underlying mechanism. We recently found that in mountaineers increasing the respiratory dead space markedly improves sleep disordered breathing. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of this procedure on sleep disordered breathing in patients with CMS. Methods: In 10 male Bolivian high-altitude dwellers (mean ± SD age, 59 ± 9 y) suffering from CMS (haemoglobin >20 g/L) full night sleep recordings (Embletta, RespMed) were obtained in La Paz (3600 m). In random order, one night was spent with a 500 ml increase in dead space through a custom designed full face mask and the other night without it. Exclusion criteria were: secondary erythrocytosis, smoking, drug intake, acute infection, cardio- pulmonary or neurologic disease and travelling to low altitude in the preceding 6 months. Results: The major new finding was that added dead space dramatically improved sleep disordered breathing in patients suffering from CMS. The apnea/hypopnea index decreased by >50% (from 34.5 ± 25.0 to 16.8 ± 14.9, P = 0.003), the oxygen desaturation index decreased from 46.2 ± 23.0 to 27.2 ± 20.0 (P = 0.0004) and hypopnea index from 28.8 ± 20.9 to 16.3 ± 14.0 (P = 0.01), whereas nocturnal oxygen saturation increased from 79.8 ± 3.6 to 80.9 ± 3.0% (P = 0.009). The procedure was easily accepted and well tolerated. Conclusion: Here, we show for the very first time that an increase in respiratory dead space through a fitted mask dramatically improves nocturnal breathing in high-altitude dwellers suffering from CMS. We speculate that when used in the long-term, this procedure will improve erythrocytosis and pulmonary hypertension and offer an inexpensive and easily implementable treatment for this major public health problem.

Point-occurrence self-similarity in crackling-noise systems and in other complex systems

It has been recently found that a number of systems displaying crackling noise also show a remarkable behavior regarding the temporal occurrence of successive events versus their size: a scaling law for the probability distributions of waiting times as a function of a minimum size is fulfilled, signaling the existence on those systems of self-similarity in time-size. This property is also present in some non-crackling systems. Here, the uncommon character of the scaling law is illustrated with simple marked renewal processes, built by definition with no correlations. Whereas processes with a finite mean waiting time do not fulfill a scaling law in general and tend towards a Poisson process in the limit of very high sizes, processes without a finite mean tend to another class of distributions, characterized by double power-law waiting-time densities. This is somehow reminiscent of the generalized central limit theorem. A model with short-range correlations is not able to escape from the attraction of those limit distributions. A discussion on open problems in the modeling of these properties is provided.

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Nylon wool column: a tool for obtaining monokine-rich eluates in the absence of serum

Diverse conditions for stimulating human mononuclear cells to release thymocyte costimulatory factors were tested for their contribution to the generation of supernatants high titers of these monokines. Activity titers increased with LPS concentration, reaching a plateau between 1 and 10 microng/ml. Indomethacin did not modify the monokine, but the assay for thymocyte costimulatory activity was substantially affected by inhibitory substances produced by the monocytes in the absence of indomethacin. The use of nylon wool columns to trap the cells was shown to be effective in raising cellular densities without decreasing activity titers. As result, the yield per cell could be maintained even in the absence of serum, an important step toward the goal of purifiying bioactive from crude broths.

Observations on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with particular reference to the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi

A study was made on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with special emphasis on the principal malaria vector Anopheles darlingi and on the occurrence of other possible vector species. Peridomestic human bait collections of adult mosquitoes and collections of larvae were made in many localities with a recent history of malaria transmission. Stable population of An. darlingi were only found in the interior, south of the limit of tidal influence, due to year-round availability of breeding habitats in quietly sunlit places in flooded forest areas and along river banks. In the area with tidal movement of the rivers, breeding is limited to flooded areas in the west season. Anopheles darlingi was only incidentally collected in low densities. In the interior, malaria transmission occurred in all places where An. darlingi was found. The absence of malaria transmission along the Upper Suriname River could be explained by the absence of An. darlingi. In the malaria endemic areas, An darlingi was the most numerous mosquito biting on man. In the tidal region, malaria outbreak are infrequent and might be explained by the temporary availability of favourable beeding habitats for An. darlingi. However, evidence is insufficient to incriminate an. darlingi as the vector of malaria in this region and the possible vectorial role of other anophelines is discussed.

Potent synergism of the combination of fluconazole and cyclosporine in Candida albicans.

Several types of drugs currently used in clinical practice were screened in vitro for their potentiation of the antifungal effect of the fungistatic agent fluconazole (FLC) on Candida albicans. These drugs included inhibitors of multidrug efflux transporters, antimicrobial agents, antifungal agents, and membrane-active compounds with no antimicrobial activity, such as antiarrhythmic agents, proton pump inhibitors, and platelet aggregation inhibitors. Among the drugs tested in an agar disk diffusion assay, cyclosporine (Cy), which had no intrinsic antifungal activity, showed a potent antifungal effect in combination with FLC. In a checkerboard microtiter plate format, however, it was observed that the MIC of FLC, as classically defined by the NCCLS recommendations, was unchanged when FLC and Cy were combined. Nevertheless, if a different reading endpoint corresponding to the minimal fungicidal concentration needed to decrease viable counts by at least 3 logs in comparison to the growth control was chosen, the combination was synergistic (fractional inhibitory concentration index of &lt;1). This endpoint fitted to the definition of MIC-0 (optically clear wells) and reflected the absence of the trailing effect, which is the result of a residual growth at FLC concentrations greater than the MIC. The MIC-0 values of FLC and Cy tested alone in C. albicans were &gt;32 and &gt;10 microg/ml, respectively, and decreased to 0.5 and 0.625 microg/ml when the two drugs were combined. The combination of 0.625 microg of Cy per ml with supra-MICs of FLC resulted in a potent antifungal effect in time-kill curve experiments. This effect was fungicidal or fungistatic, depending on the C. albicans strain used. Since the Cy concentration effective in vitro is achievable in vivo, the combination of this agent with FLC represents an attractive perspective for the development of new management strategies for candidiasis.

Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

Introduced freshwater blenny influences the diet and body condition of the invasive dice snake in Lake Geneva

Non-indigenous species can have strong impacts on biodiversity by affecting trophic relationships in their new environments. The piscivorous dice snake (Natrix tessellata) has been introduced to Geneva Lake, western Switzerland, where the endangered viperine snake (Natrix maura) is native. Local, dramatic declines in the viperine snake population might be associated with the appearance of the dice snake through dietary overlap between these 2 species, which mainly feed on bullhead (Cottus gobio). In response to this decline, a control program for dice snake was implemented in 2007 to reduce numbers of this introduced snake. In 2010, a new species of fish, the freshwater blenny (Salaria fluviatilis), which shares the same habitat as the bullhead, was introduced into Lake Geneva and has since reached high densities. We determined the impact of freshwater blenny on diet composition and body condition of dice snakes. In addition, we tested for effects of the control program on the body condition of dice snakes and viperine snakes. We collected 294 dice snakes between 2007 and 2013. Based on morphology and a genetic marker (cytochrome b gene), we determined the ®sh species contained in these snakes' stomachs. We found a drastic switch in dice snake diet following the arrival of freshwater blenny, as consumption of bullhead declined by 68% and was replaced by the blenny. In addition, the body condition of dice snakes increased significantly after the arrival of freshwater blenny. The body condition of both snake species was positively correlated with the number of dice snakes removed from the study area. This finding has important implications concerning the conservation of the endangered viperine snake, and suggests that the control program of dice snakes should be continued.