Parameter-free extraction of the functional network topology from intracranial EEG recordings: a time-resolved study of graph properties in focal onset seizures

Rationale: Focal onset epileptic seizures are due to abnormal interactions between distributed brain areas. By estimating the cross-correlation matrix of multi-site intra-cerebral EEG recordings (iEEG), one can quantify these interactions. To assess the topology of the underlying functional network, the binary connectivity matrix has to be derived from the cross-correlation matrix by use of a threshold. Classically, a unique threshold is used that constrains the topology [1]. Our method aims to set the threshold in a data-driven way by separating genuine from random cross-correlation. We compare our approach to the fixed threshold method and study the dynamics of the functional topology. Methods: We investigate the iEEG of patients suffering from focal onset seizures who underwent evaluation for the possibility of surgery. The equal-time cross-correlation matrices are evaluated using a sliding time window. We then compare 3 approaches assessing the corresponding binary networks. For each time window: * Our parameter-free method derives from the cross-correlation strength matrix (CCS)[2]. It aims at disentangling genuine from random correlations (due to finite length and varying frequency content of the signals). In practice, a threshold is evaluated for each pair of channels independently, in a data-driven way. * The fixed mean degree (FMD) uses a unique threshold on the whole connectivity matrix so as to ensure a user defined mean degree. * The varying mean degree (VMD) uses the mean degree of the CCS network to set a unique threshold for the entire connectivity matrix. * Finally, the connectivity (c), connectedness (given by k, the number of disconnected sub-networks), mean global and local efficiencies (Eg, El, resp.) are computed from FMD, CCS, VMD, and their corresponding random and lattice networks. Results: Compared to FMD and VMD, CCS networks present: *topologies that are different in terms of c, k, Eg and El. *from the pre-ictal to the ictal and then post-ictal period, topological features time courses that are more stable within a period, and more contrasted from one period to the next. For CCS, pre-ictal connectivity is low, increases to a high level during the seizure, then decreases at offset. k shows a ‘‘U-curve’’ underlining the synchronization of all electrodes during the seizure. Eg and El time courses fluctuate between the corresponding random and lattice networks values in a reproducible manner. Conclusions: The definition of a data-driven threshold provides new insights into the topology of the epileptic functional networks.

Integration of Truncated Distributions in Exponential Family with Simulation Models of Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Truncated distributions of the exponential family have great influence in the simulation models. This paper discusses the truncated Weibull distribution specifically. The truncation of the distribution is achieved by the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method or combined with the expectation and variance expressions. After the fitting of distribution, the goodness-of-fit tests (the Chi-Square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) are executed to rule out the rejected hypotheses. Finally the distributions are integrated in various simulation models, e. g. shipment consolidation model, to compare the influence of truncated and original versions of Weibull distribution on the model.

Prediction of PA12 melt viscosity in Laser Sintering by a Time and Temperature dependent rheological model

Ein auf Basis von Prozessdaten kalibriertes Viskositätsmodell wird vorgeschlagen und zur Vorhersage der Viskosität einer Polyamid 12 (PA12) Kunststoffschmelze als Funktion von Zeit, Temperatur und Schergeschwindigkeit angewandt. Im ersten Schritt wurde das Viskositätsmodell aus experimentellen Daten abgeleitet. Es beruht hauptsächlich auf dem drei-parametrigen Ansatz von Carreau, wobei zwei zusätzliche Verschiebungsfaktoren eingesetzt werden. Die Temperaturabhängigkeit der Viskosität wird mithilfe des Verschiebungsfaktors aT von Arrhenius berücksichtigt. Ein weiterer Verschiebungsfaktor aSC (Structural Change) wird eingeführt, der die Strukturänderung von PA12 als Folge der Prozessbedingungen beim Lasersintern beschreibt. Beobachtet wurde die Strukturänderung in Form einer signifikanten Viskositätserhöhung. Es wurde geschlussfolgert, dass diese Viskositätserhöhung auf einen Molmassenaufbau zurückzuführen ist und als Nachkondensation verstanden werden kann. Abhängig von den Zeit- und Temperaturbedingungen wurde festgestellt, dass die Viskosität als Folge des Molmassenaufbaus exponentiell gegen eine irreversible Grenze strebt. Die Geschwindigkeit dieser Nachkondensation ist zeit- und temperaturabhängig. Es wird angenommen, dass die Pulverbetttemperatur einen Molmassenaufbau verursacht und es damit zur Kettenverlängerung kommt. Dieser fortschreitende Prozess der zunehmenden Kettenlängen setzt molekulare Beweglichkeit herab und unterbindet die weitere Nachkondensation. Der Verschiebungsfaktor aSC drückt diese physikalisch-chemische Modellvorstellung aus und beinhaltet zwei zusätzliche Parameter. Der Parameter aSC,UL entspricht der oberen Viskositätsgrenze, wohingegen k0 die Strukturänderungsrate angibt. Es wurde weiterhin festgestellt, dass es folglich nützlich ist zwischen einer Fließaktivierungsenergie und einer Strukturänderungsaktivierungsenergie für die Berechnung von aT und aSC zu unterscheiden. Die Optimierung der Modellparameter erfolgte mithilfe eines genetischen Algorithmus. Zwischen berechneten und gemessenen Viskositäten wurde eine gute Übereinstimmung gefunden, so dass das Viskositätsmodell in der Lage ist die Viskosität einer PA12 Kunststoffschmelze als Folge eines kombinierten Lasersinter Zeit- und Temperatureinflusses vorherzusagen. Das Modell wurde im zweiten Schritt angewandt, um die Viskosität während des Lasersinter-Prozesses in Abhängigkeit von der Energiedichte zu berechnen. Hierzu wurden Prozessdaten, wie Schmelzetemperatur und Belichtungszeit benutzt, die mithilfe einer High-Speed Thermografiekamera on-line gemessen wurden. Abschließend wurde der Einfluss der Strukturänderung auf das Viskositätsniveau im Prozess aufgezeigt.

Efficiency of risk-based vs . random sampling for the monitoring of tetracycline residues in slaughtered calves in Switzerland

In all European Union countries, chemical residues are required to be routinely monitored in meat. Good farming and veterinary practice can prevent the contamination of meat with pharmaceutical substances, resulting in a low detection of drug residues through random sampling. An alternative approach is to target-monitor farms suspected of treating their animals with antimicrobials. The objective of this project was to assess, using a stochastic model, the efficiency of these two sampling strategies. The model integrated data on Swiss livestock as well as expert opinion and results from studies conducted in Switzerland. Risk-based sampling showed an increase in detection efficiency of up to 100% depending on the prevalence of contaminated herds. Sensitivity analysis of this model showed the importance of the accuracy of prior assumptions for conducting risk-based sampling. The resources gained by changing from random to risk-based sampling should be transferred to improving the quality of prior information.

Statistical inference for the optimal approximating model

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive (point) estimation, the construction of adaptive confidence regions is severely limited (cf. Li in Ann Stat 17:1001–1008, 1989). The present paper sheds new light on this gap. We develop exact and adaptive confidence regions for the best approximating model in terms of risk. One of our constructions is based on a multiscale procedure and a particular coupling argument. Utilizing exponential inequalities for noncentral χ2-distributions, we show that the risk and quadratic loss of all models within our confidence region are uniformly bounded by the minimal risk times a factor close to one.

Robust Proximal Femur Segmentation in Conventional X-Ray Images via Random Forest Regression on Multi-resolution Gradient Features

In this paper, we propose a fully automatic, robust approach for segmenting proximal femur in conventional X-ray images. Our method is based on hierarchical landmark detection by random forest regression, where the detection results of 22 global landmarks are used to do the spatial normalization, and the detection results of the 59 local landmarks serve as the image cue for instantiation of a statistical shape model of the proximal femur. To detect landmarks in both levels, we use multi-resolution HoG (Histogram of Oriented Gradients) as features which can achieve better accuracy and robustness. The efficacy of the present method is demonstrated by experiments conducted on 150 clinical x-ray images. It was found that the present method could achieve an average point-to-curve error of 2.0 mm and that the present method was robust to low image contrast, noise and occlusions caused by implants.

Characterization of the 9L gliosarcoma implanted in the Fischer rat: an orthotopic model for a grade IV brain tumor.

Among rodent models for brain tumors, the 9L gliosarcoma is one of the most widely used. Our 9L-European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF) model was developed from cells acquired at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (NY, USA) in 1997 and implanted in the right caudate nucleus of syngeneic Fisher rats. It has been largely used by the user community of the ESRF during the last decade, for imaging, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy, including innovative treatments based on particular irradiation techniques and/or use of new drugs. This work presents a detailed study of its characteristics, assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), histology, immunohistochemistry, and cytogenetic analysis. The data used for this work were from rats sampled in six experiments carried out over a 3-year period in our lab (total number of rats = 142). The 9L-ESRF tumors were induced by a stereotactic inoculation of 10(4) 9L cells in the right caudate nucleus of the brain. The assessment of vascular parameters was performed by MRI (blood volume fraction and vascular size index) and by immunostaining of vessels (rat endothelial cell antigen-1 and type IV collagen). Immunohistochemistry and regular histology were used to describe features such as tumor cell infiltration, necrosis area, nuclear pleomorphism, cellularity, mitotic characteristics, leukocytic infiltration, proliferation, and inflammation. Moreover, for each of the six experiments, the survival of the animals was assessed and related to the tumor growth observed by MRI or histology. Additionally, the cytogenetic status of the 9L cells used at ESRF lab was investigated by comparative genomics hybridization analysis. Finally, the response of the 9L-ESRF tumor to radiotherapy was estimated by plotting the survival curves after irradiation. The median survival time of 9L-ESRF tumor-bearing rats was highly reproducible (19-20 days). The 9L-ESRF tumors presented a quasi-exponential growth, were highly vascularized with a high cellular density and a high proliferative index, accompanied by signs of inflammatory responses. We also report an infiltrative pattern which is poorly observed on conventional 9 L tumor. The 9L-ESRF cells presented some cytogenetic specificities such as altered regions including CDK4, CDKN2A, CDKN2B, and MDM2 genes. Finally, the lifespan of 9L-ESRF tumor-bearing rats was enhanced up to 28, 35, and 45 days for single doses of 10, 20, and 2 × 20 Gy, respectively. First, this report describes an animal model that is used worldwide. Second, we describe few features typical of our model if compared to other 9L models worldwide. Altogether, the 9L-ESRF tumor model presents characteristics close to the human high-grade gliomas such as high proliferative capability, high vascularization and a high infiltrative pattern. Its response to radiotherapy demonstrates its potential as a tool for innovative radiotherapy protocols.

Mechanisms of perceptual learning of depth discrimination in random dot stereograms.

Perceptual learning is a training induced improvement in performance. Mechanisms underlying the perceptual learning of depth discrimination in dynamic random dot stereograms were examined by assessing stereothresholds as a function of decorrelation. The inflection point of the decorrelation function was defined as the level of decorrelation corresponding to 1.4 times the threshold when decorrelation is 0%. In general, stereothresholds increased with increasing decorrelation. Following training, stereothresholds and standard errors of measurement decreased systematically for all tested decorrelation values. Post training decorrelation functions were reduced by a multiplicative constant (approximately 5), exhibiting changes in stereothresholds without changes in the inflection points. Disparity energy model simulations indicate that a post-training reduction in neuronal noise can sufficiently account for the perceptual learning effects. In two subjects, learning effects were retained over a period of six months, which may have application for training stereo deficient subjects.

Effect of nonnormal random components on level and power in group-randomized trials

The use of group-randomized trials is particularly widespread in the evaluation of health care, educational, and screening strategies. Group-randomized trials represent a subset of a larger class of designs often labeled nested, hierarchical, or multilevel and are characterized by the randomization of intact social units or groups, rather than individuals. The application of random effects models to group-randomized trials requires the specification of fixed and random components of the model. The underlying assumption is usually that these random components are normally distributed. This research is intended to determine if the Type I error rate and power are affected when the assumption of normality for the random component representing the group effect is violated. ^ In this study, simulated data are used to examine the Type I error rate, power, bias and mean squared error of the estimates of the fixed effect and the observed intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) when the random component representing the group effect possess distributions with non-normal characteristics, such as heavy tails or severe skewness. The simulated data are generated with various characteristics (e.g. number of schools per condition, number of students per school, and several within school ICCs) observed in most small, school-based, group-randomized trials. The analysis is carried out using SAS PROC MIXED, Version 6.12, with random effects specified in a random statement and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation specified. The results from the non-normally distributed data are compared to the results obtained from the analysis of data with similar design characteristics but normally distributed random effects. ^ The results suggest that the violation of the normality assumption for the group component by a skewed or heavy-tailed distribution does not appear to influence the estimation of the fixed effect, Type I error, and power. Negative biases were detected when estimating the sample ICC and dramatically increased in magnitude as the true ICC increased. These biases were not as pronounced when the true ICC was within the range observed in most group-randomized trials (i.e. 0.00 to 0.05). The normally distributed group effect also resulted in bias ICC estimates when the true ICC was greater than 0.05. However, this may be a result of higher correlation within the data. ^

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Preference Structure and Random Paths to Stability in Matching Markets

This paper examines how preference correlation and intercorrelation combine to influence the length of a decentralized matching market's path to stability. In simulated experiments, marriage markets with various preference specifications begin at an arbitrary matching of couples and proceed toward stability via the random mechanism proposed by Roth and Vande Vate (1990). The results of these experiments reveal that fundamental preference characteristics are critical in predicting how long the market will take to reach a stable matching. In particular, intercorrelation and correlation are shown to have an exponential impact on the number of blocking pairs that must be randomly satisfied before stability is attained. The magnitude of the impact is dramatically different, however, depending on whether preferences are positively or negatively intercorrelated.

Extracting more out of relocation data: building movement models as mixtures of random walks

We present a framework for fitting multiple random walks to animal movement paths consisting of ordered sets of step lengths and turning angles. Each step and turn is assigned to one of a number of random walks, each characteristic of a different behavioral state. Behavioral state assignments may be inferred purely from movement data or may include the habitat type in which the animals are located. Switching between different behavioral states may be modeled explicitly using a state transition matrix estimated directly from data, or switching probabilities may take into account the proximity of animals to landscape features. Model fitting is undertaken within a Bayesian framework using the WinBUGS software. These methods allow for identification of different movement states using several properties of observed paths and lead naturally to the formulation of movement models. Analysis of relocation data from elk released in east-central Ontario, Canada, suggests a biphasic movement behavior: elk are either in an "encamped" state in which step lengths are small and turning angles are high, or in an "exploratory" state, in which daily step lengths are several kilometers and turning angles are small. Animals encamp in open habitat (agricultural fields and opened forest), but the exploratory state is not associated with any particular habitat type.

Simulation study of joint transition and Weibull survival model with shared parameters

This study investigates a theoretical model where a longitudinal process, that is a stationary Markov-Chain, and a Weibull survival process share a bivariate random effect. Furthermore, a Quality-of-Life adjusted survival is calculated as the weighted sum of survival time. Theoretical values of population mean adjusted survival of the described model are computed numerically. The parameters of the bivariate random effect do significantly affect theoretical values of population mean. Maximum-Likelihood and Bayesian methods are applied on simulated data to estimate the model parameters. Based on the parameter estimates, predicated population mean adjusted survival can then be calculated numerically and compared with the theoretical values. Bayesian method and Maximum-Likelihood method provide parameter estimations and population mean prediction with comparable accuracy; however Bayesian method suffers from poor convergence due to autocorrelation and inter-variable correlation. ^

An empirical model to estimate the demand for primary care in urban settings

Objective. To measure the demand for primary care and its associated factors by building and estimating a demand model of primary care in urban settings.^ Data source. Secondary data from 2005 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS 2005), a population-based random-digit dial telephone survey, conducted by the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research in collaboration with the California Department of Health Services, and the Public Health Institute between July 2005 and April 2006.^ Study design. A literature review was done to specify the demand model by identifying relevant predictors and indicators. CHIS 2005 data was utilized for demand estimation.^ Analytical methods. The probit regression was used to estimate the use/non-use equation and the negative binomial regression was applied to the utilization equation with the non-negative integer dependent variable.^ Results. The model included two equations in which the use/non-use equation explained the probability of making a doctor visit in the past twelve months, and the utilization equation estimated the demand for primary conditional on at least one visit. Among independent variables, wage rate and income did not affect the primary care demand whereas age had a negative effect on demand. People with college and graduate educational level were associated with 1.03 (p < 0.05) and 1.58 (p < 0.01) more visits, respectively, compared to those with no formal education. Insurance was significantly and positively related to the demand for primary care (p < 0.01). Need for care variables exhibited positive effects on demand (p < 0.01). Existence of chronic disease was associated with 0.63 more visits, disability status was associated with 1.05 more visits, and people with poor health status had 4.24 more visits than those with excellent health status. ^ Conclusions. The average probability of visiting doctors in the past twelve months was 85% and the average number of visits was 3.45. The study emphasized the importance of need variables in explaining healthcare utilization, as well as the impact of insurance, employment and education on demand. The two-equation model of decision-making, and the probit and negative binomial regression methods, was a useful approach to demand estimation for primary care in urban settings.^

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^