Shale gas in Europe: much ado about little? Egmont Paper No. 64, March 2014

Introduction. Shale gas is an unconventional form of gas1 because its extraction is more difficult or less economical than that of conventional natural gas. It has become an important item of energy policy during the last years since new processes have allowed its extraction. In the medium term, shale gas should foster a reinforcement of the gas part in the world’s energy mix. In 2011, the IEA released an influential report entitled “Are we entering a golden age of gas?” This report suggests that shale gas could help substantially boost global gas use.2 It also warns at the same time that this success could bring into question the international goal of limiting the long-term increase in the global temperature to 2° C above pre-industrial levels. In the world economy, the impact of shale gas is increasing rapidly (especially in the USA, albeit apparently not as significantly as expected3). In the EU, its perspectives remain uncertain, for many reasons. Estimates are not reliable. Shale gas exploitation remains a controversial issue due to geology, lack of infrastructure and also fears for the environment and public health. The EU institutions seem to have a favorable attitude towards shale gas development while the Member States’ attitude seems to vary from enthusiasm to hesitation or opposition. Public opinion on the issue appears quite divided everywhere. This brief paper will examine various estimations of potential resources in the EU (§ 1), the potential costs and benefits (§ 2), the initiatives taken by the EU institutions (§ 3) and the national authorities (§ 4), and finally the emerging EU framework (§ 5). The conclusion is, rather surprisingly, that whatever happens on this front, this will not modify the present structural challenges of the EU in the domains of climate and energy.4

Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of globally distributed benthic stable oxygen isotope records

We present a 5.3-Myr stack (the ''LR04'' stack) of benthic d18O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic delta18O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka, and we use its improved signal quality to identify 24 new marine isotope stages in the early Pliocene. We also present a new LR04 age model for the Pliocene-Pleistocene derived from tuning the delta18O stack to a simple ice model based on 21 June insolation at 65 N. Stacked sedimentation rates provide additional age model constraints to prevent overtuning. Despite a conservative tuning strategy, the LR04 benthic stack exhibits significant coherency with insolation in the obliquity band throughout the entire 5.3 Myr and in the precession band for more than half of the record. The LR04 stack contains significantly more variance in benthic delta18O than previously published stacks of the late Pleistocene as the result of higher resolution records, a better alignment technique, and a greater percentage of records from the Atlantic. Finally, the relative phases of the stack's 41- and 23-kyr components suggest that the precession component of delta18O from 2.7-1.6 Ma is primarily a deep-water temperature signal and that the phase of d18O precession response changed suddenly at 1.6 Ma.

Productive parameters of seawater and epipelagic plankton and mesozooplankton biomass at stations of R/V Akademik Mstislav Keldysh during 1994-1998

Calculated and measured estimations of biomass of small (<3 mm), large (3-30 mm), and total zooplankton were verified (compared). These integral parameters of epipelagic communities were estimated by two methods. We used previously obtained regression equations, which correlate these parameters with water transparency. Measured values of aforesaid parameters were compared with their mean values in waters of different productivity estimated from NASA satellite maps. We compared data collected at fifteen stations in September-December in regions of different productivity in the North Atlantic. In warm regions (to the south of 40°N) measured and calculated values coincide well. In boreal regions in autumn bulk of mesozooplankton descends to deep layers due to seasonal migrations; hence correlation between measured and calculated values is disrupted. It is evident that correlation between water transparency and mesozooplankton biomass (integral index of water productivity) obtained before should be corrected for seasonal variations.

Sea surface productivity and temperature detected by coccolith accumulation rates from the southeastern Pacific off Chile

Recent coccoliths from 74 surface sediment samples recovered from the southeastern Pacific off Chile were examined quantitatively to investigate modern regional gradients of sea surface productivity and temperature. All findings are based on coccolith accumulation rates. Therefore an approach was designed to estimate recent sedimentation rates based on 210Pb and bulk chemistry analyses of the same set of surface samples. Highest total coccolith accumulation rates were found off north-central Chile, where seasonal upwelling takes place. Based on amultiple linear regression between calculated coccolith accumulation rates andWorld Ocean Atlas derived sea surface temperatures, a calibrationmodel to reconstruct annual average temperatures of the uppermost 75 mof thewater column is provided. Themodelwas cross-validated and the SST estimateswere compared with SST observed and SST estimates based on diatoms and planktonic foraminifera, showing a good correlation.

Radiolarian-based bransfer function for the estimation of sea surface temperatures in the Southern Ocean (Atlantic Sector)

A new radiolarian-based transfer function for sea surface temperature (SST) estimations has been developed from 23 taxa and taxa groups in 53 surface sediment samples recovered between 35° and 72°S in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. For the selection of taxa and taxa groups ecological information from water column studies was considered. The transfer function allows the estimation of austral summer SST (December-March) ranging between -1 and 18°C with a standard error of estimate of 1.2°C. SST estimates from selected late Pleistocene squences were sucessfully compared with independend paleotemperature estimates derived from a diatom transfer function. This shows that radiolarians provide an excellent tool for paleotemperature reconstructions in Pleistocene sediments of the Southern Ocean.

Sea-surface temperature reconstructions for the Quaternary western Atlantic

Paleotemperature estimates calculated by the SIMMAX Modern Analog Technique are presented for two gravity cores from the Rio Grande Rise, one from the Brazil Slope, and one from the Ceara Rise. The estimates are based on comparisons between modern and fossil planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and were carried out on samples from Quaternary sediments. Estimated warm-season temperatures from the Rio Grande Rise (at approx. 30° S) range from around 19°C to 24°C, with some coincidence of warm peaks with interglacial stages. The temperature estimates (also warm-season) from the more tropical Brazil Slope (at approx. 8° S) and Ceara Rise (at approx. 4° N) cores are more stable, remaining between 26°C and 28°C throughout most of their lengths. This fairly stable situation in the tropical western Atlantic is interrupted in oxygen isotope stage 6 by a significant drop of 2-3°C in both of these cores. Temperature estimates from the uppermost samples in all cores compare very well to the modern-day measured values. Affinities of some foraminiferal species for warmer or cooler surface temperatures are identified within the temperature range of the examined samples based on their abundance values. Especially notable among the warmer species are, Globorotalia menardii, Globigerinita glutinata, Globigerinoides ruber, and Globigerinoides sacculifer. Species indicative of cooler surface temperatures include Globorotalia inflata, Globigerina bulloides, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, and Globigerina falconensis. A cluster analysis was carried out to assist in understanding the degree of variation which occurs in the foraminiferal assemblages, and how temperature differences influence the faunal compositions of the samples. It is demonstrated that fairly similar samples may have unexpectedly different estimated temperatures due to small differences in key species and, conversely, quite different assemblages can result in similar or identical temperature estimates which confirms that other parameters than just temperature affect faunal content.

A 20 m spatial resolution seamless multisource Digital Elevation/Depth Model for Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef

Hydrographers have traditionally referred to the nearshore area as the "white ribbon" area due to the challenges associated with the collection of elevation data in this highly dynamic transitional zone between terrestrial and marine environments. Accordingly, available information in this zone is typically characterised by a range of datasets from disparate sources. In this paper we propose a framework to 'fill' the white ribbon area of a coral reef system by integrating multiple elevation and bathymetric datasets acquired by a suite of remote-sensing technologies into a seamless digital elevation model (DEM). A range of datasets are integrated, including field-collected GPS elevation points, terrestrial and bathymetric LiDAR, single and multibeam bathymetry, nautical chart depths and empirically derived bathymetry estimations from optical remote sensing imagery. The proposed framework ranks data reliability internally, thereby avoiding the requirements to quantify absolute error and results in a high resolution, seamless product. Nested within this approach is an effective spatially explicit technique for improving the accuracy of bathymetry estimates derived empirically from optical satellite imagery through modelling the spatial structure of residuals. The approach was applied to data collected on and around Lizard Island in northern Australia. Collectively, the framework holds promise for filling the white ribbon zone in coastal areas characterised by similar data availability scenarios. The seamless DEM is referenced to the horizontal coordinate system MGA Zone 55 - GDA 1994, mean sea level (MSL) vertical datum and has a spatial resolution of 20 m.

Nonplanar distortions and strain energies of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

On the basis of HF/6-31G(d) optimized structures, the nonplanar distortions of 135 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been classified as splitting (S-) and arching (A-) distortions. Three bay structures are proposed as the structural origin of S-distortion. Due to the limitation of sample molecules, a set of universal motifs for molecules containing A-distortions is not available; however, a set of motifs and parameters are developed for the semiquantitative estimation of the nonplanar strain energies of PAHs containing the corannulene structure, and the differences between the E, values from quantum calculations and those from these estimations vary from -5.60 to 5.51 kcal/mol. The above results are fundamentally important for the understanding of nonplanar distortion of PAHs and fullerenes, and this method can also be employed to semiquantitatively estimate strain energies of such molecules containing hundreds of carbon atoms.

Reliably estimating the effect of toxicants on fertilization success in marine broadcast spawners

Recently, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of ecotoxicological studies examining the effects of toxicants on fertilization success in marine broadcast spawners and it appears that this life-history stage is one of the most vulnerable to toxicants. Most of the studies examining this issue use single sperm concentrations in their assays. Here, I discuss recent advances in fertilization ecology that suggest this technique has some severe limitations resulting in unreliable estimations of the size and direction of toxicant effects. I present an alternative assay technique and two metrics (F-max and [Sperm](max)) that will reliably estimate the size of a toxicant's effect on fertilization success. This technique has the added advantage of making comparisons among species and studies easier without an impractical increase in effort. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the excretion rate of endogenous purine derivatives in the urine of Bos indicus and Bos taurus steers

Estimates of microbial crude protein (MCP) production by ruminants, using a method based on the excretion of purine derivatives in urine, require an estimate of the excretion of endogenous purine derivatives (PD) by the animal. Current methods allocate a single value to all cattle. An experiment was carried out to compare the endogenous PD excretion in Bos taurus and high-content B. indicus ( hereafter, B. indicus) cattle. Five Holstein - Friesian ( B. taurus) and 5 Brahman (> 75% B. indicus) steers ( mean liveweight 326 +/- 3.0 kg) were used in a fasting study. Steers were fed a low-quality buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris; 59.4 g crude protein/kg dry matter) hay at estimated maintenance requirements for 19 days, after which hay intake was incrementally reduced for 2 days and the steers were fasted for 7 days. The excretion of PD in urine was measured daily for the last 6 days of the fasting period and the mean represented the daily endogenous PD excretion. Excretion of endogenous PD in the urine of B. indicus steers was less than half that of the B. taurus steers ( 190 mu mol/kg W-0.75. day v. 414 mu mol/kg W-0.75. day; combined s.e. 37.2 mu mol/kg W-0.75. day; P< 0.001). It was concluded that the use of a single value for endogenous PD excretion is inappropriate for use in MCP estimations and that subspecies-specific values would improve precision.

Variability in heart rate estimates from different pulse oximeters

Since its introduction, pulse oximetry has become a conventional clinical measure. Besides being arterial blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) measure, pulse oximeters can be used for other cardiovascular measurements, like heart rate (HR) estimations, derived from its photo plethysmographic (PPG) signals. The temporal coherence of the PPG signals and thereby HR estimates are heavily dependent on its minimal phase variability. A Masimo SET Rad-9TM, Novametrix Oxypleth and a custom designed PPG system were investigated for their relative phase variation. R-R intervals from electro-cardiogram (ECG) were recorded concurrently as reference. PPG signals obtained from the 3 systems were evaluated by comparing their respective beat-to-beat (B-B) intervals with the corresponding R-R estimates during a static test. For their relative B-B comparison to the ECG, Novametrix system differed 0.680.52% (p

Model specification and forecasting foreign exchange rates with vector autoregressions

This study examines the forecasting accuracy of alternative vector autoregressive models each in a seven-variable system that comprises in turn of daily, weekly and monthly foreign exchange (FX) spot rates. The vector autoregressions (VARs) are in non-stationary, stationary and error-correction forms and are estimated using OLS. The imposition of Bayesian priors in the OLS estimations also allowed us to obtain another set of results. We find that there is some tendency for the Bayesian estimation method to generate superior forecast measures relatively to the OLS method. This result holds whether or not the data sets contain outliers. Also, the best forecasts under the non-stationary specification outperformed those of the stationary and error-correction specifications, particularly at long forecast horizons, while the best forecasts under the stationary and error-correction specifications are generally similar. The findings for the OLS forecasts are consistent with recent simulation results. The predictive ability of the VARs is very weak.

An investigation of thin amorphous carbon-based sputtered coatings for MEMS and micro-engineering applications

The work presented in this thesis describes an investigation into the production and properties of thin amorphous C films, with and without Cr doping, as a low wear / friction coating applicable to MEMS and other micro- and nano-engineering applications. Firstly, an assessment was made of the available testing techniques. Secondly, the optimised test methods were applied to a series of sputtered films of thickness 10 - 2000 nm in order to: (i) investigate the effect of thickness on the properties of coatingslcoating process (ii) investigate fundamental tribology at the nano-scale and (iii) provide a starting point for nanotribological coating optimisation at ultra low thickness. The use of XPS was investigated for the determination of Sp3/Sp2 carbon bonding. Under C 1s peak analysis, significant errors were identified and this was attributed to the absence of sufficient instrument resolution to guide the component peak structure (even with a high resolution instrument). A simple peak width analysis and correlation work with C KLL D value confirmed the errors. The use of XPS for Sp3/Sp2 was therefore limited to initial tentative estimations. Nanoindentation was shown to provide consistent hardness and reduced modulus results with depth (to < 7nm) when replicate data was suitably statistically processed. No significant pile-up or cracking of the films was identified under nanoindentation. Nanowear experimentation by multiple nanoscratching provided some useful information, however the conditions of test were very different to those expect for MEMS and micro- / nano-engineering systems. A novel 'sample oscillated nanoindentation' system was developed for testing nanowear under more relevant conditions. The films were produced in an industrial production coating line. In order to maximise the available information and to take account of uncontrolled process variation a statistical design of experiment procedure was used to investigate the effect of four key process control parameters. Cr doping was the most significant control parameter at all thicknesses tested and produced a softening effect and thus increased nanowear. Substrate bias voltage was also a significant parameter and produced hardening and a wear reducing effect at all thicknesses tested. The use of a Cr adhesion layer produced beneficial results at 150 nm thickness, but was ineffective at 50 nm. Argon flow to the coating chamber produced a complex effect. All effects reduced significantly with reducing film thickness. Classic fretting wear was produced at low amplitude under nanowear testing. Reciprocating sliding was produced at higher amplitude which generated three body abrasive wear and this was generally consistent with the Archard model. Specific wear rates were very low (typically 10-16 - 10-18 m3N-1m-1). Wear rates reduced exponentially with reduced film thickness and below (approx.) 20 nm, thickness was identified as the most important control of wear.

Pricing-to-market for UK export sector

This thesis investigates the pricing-to-market (PTM) behaviour of the UK export sector. Unlike previous studies, this study econometrically tests for seasonal unit roots in the export prices prior to estimating PTM behaviour. Prior studies have seasonally adjusted the data automatically. This study’s results show that monthly export prices contain very little seasonal unit roots implying that there is a loss of information in the data generating process of the series when estimating PTM using seasonally-adjusted data. Prior studies have also ignored the econometric properties of the data despite the existence of ARCH effects in such data. The standard approach has been to estimate PTM models using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). For this reason, both EGARCH and GJR-EGARCH (hereafter GJR) estimation methods are used to estimate both a standard and an Error Correction model (ECM) of PTM. The results indicate that PTM behaviour varies across UK sectors. The variables used in the PTM models are co-integrated and an ECM is a valid representation of pricing behaviour. The study also finds that the price adjustment is slower when the analysis is performed on real prices, i.e., data that are adjusted for inflation. There is strong evidence of auto-regressive condition heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effects – meaning that the PTM parameter estimates of prior studies have been ineffectively estimated. Surprisingly, there is very little evidence of asymmetry. This suggests that exporters appear to PTM at a relatively constant rate. This finding might also explain the failure of prior studies to find evidence of asymmetric exposure in foreign exchange (FX) rates. This study also provides a cross sectional analysis to explain the implications of the observed PTM of producers’ marginal cost, market share and product differentiation. The cross-sectional regressions are estimated using OLS, Generalised Method of Moment (GMM) and Logit estimations. Overall, the results suggest that market share affects PTM positively.Exporters with smaller market share are more likely to operate PTM. Alternatively, product differentiation is negatively associated with PTM. So industries with highly differentiated products are less likely to adjust their prices. However, marginal costs seem not to be significantly associated with PTM. Exporters perform PTM to limit the FX rate effect pass-through to their foreign customers, but they also avoided exploiting PTM to the full, since to do so can substantially reduce their profits.