How Scientists Retrieve Publications: An Empirical Study of How the Internet Is Overtaking Paper Media

The current mainstream scientific-publication process has so far been only marginally affected by the possibilities offered by the Internet, despite some pioneering attempts with free electronic-only journals and electronic preprint archives. Additional electronic versions of traditional paper journals for which one needs a subscription are not a solution. A clear trend, for young researchers in particular, is to go around subscription barriers (both for paper and electronic material) and rely almost exclusively on what they can find free on the Internet, which often includes working versions posted on the home pages of the authors. A survey of how scientists retrieve publications was conducted in February 2000, aimed at measuring to what extent the opportunities offered by the Internet are already changing the scientific information exchange and how researchers feel about this. This paper presents the results based on 236 replies to an extensive Web-based questionnaire, which was announced to around 3,000 researchers in the domains of construction information technology and construction management. The questions dealt with how researchers find, access, and read different sources; how many and what publications they read; how often and to which conferences they travel; how much they publish, and criteria for where they eventually decide to publish. Some of the questions confronted traditional and electronic publishing, with one final section dedicated to opinions about electronic publishing. According to the survey, researchers already download half of the material that they read digitally from the Web. The most popular method for retrieving an interesting publication is downloading it for free from the author's or publisher's Web site. Researchers are not particularly willing to pay for electronic scientific publications. There is much support for a scenario of electronic journals available freely in their entirety on the Web, where the costs could be covered by, for instance, professional societies or the publishing university.

Moment-Matched Lognormal Modeling of Uplink Interference with Power Control and Cell Selection

We develop an alternate characterization of the statistical distribution of the inter-cell interference power observed in the uplink of CDMA systems. We show that the lognormal distribution better matches the cumulative distribution and complementary cumulative distribution functions of the uplink interference than the conventionally assumed Gaussian distribution and variants based on it. This is in spite of the fact that many users together contribute to uplink interference, with the number of users and their locations both being random. Our observations hold even in the presence of power control and cell selection, which have hitherto been used to justify the Gaussian distribution approximation. The parameters of the lognormal are obtained by matching moments, for which detailed analytical expressions that incorporate wireless propagation, cellular layout, power control, and cell selection parameters are developed. The moment-matched lognormal model, while not perfect, is an order of magnitude better in modeling the interference power distribution.

Structural stability of slender aerospace vehicles: Part I Mathematical modeling

A detailed mechanics based model is developed to analyze the problem of structural instability in slender aerospace vehicles. Coupling among the rigid-body modes, the longitudinal vibrational modes and the transverse vibrational modes due to asymmetric lifting-body cross-section are considered. The model also incorporates the effects of aerodynamic pressure and the propulsive thrust of the vehicle. The model is one-dimensional, and it can be employed to idealized slender vehicles with complex shapes. Condition under which a flexible body with internal stress waves behaves like a perfect rigid body is derived. Two methods are developed for finite element discretization of the system: (1) A time-frequency Fourier spectral finite element method and (2) h-p finite element method. Numerical results using the above methods are presented in Part II of this paper. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Empirical Studies on Labor Market Matching (summary section only)

This thesis analyzes how matching takes place at the Finnish labor market from three different angles. The Finnish labor market has undergone severe structural changes following the economic crisis in the early 1990s. The labor market has had problems adjusting from these changes and hence a high and persistent unemployment has followed. In this thesis I analyze if matching problems, and in particular if changes in matching, can explain some of this persistence. The thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay Finnish Evidence of Changes in the Labor Market Matching Process the matching process at the Finnish labor market is analyzed. The key finding is that the matching process has changed thoroughly between the booming 1980s and the post-crisis period. The importance of the number of unemployed, and in particular long-term unemployed, for the matching process has vanished. More unemployed do not increase matching as theory predicts but rather the opposite. In the second essay, The Aggregate Matching Function and Directed Search -Finnish Evidence, stock-flow matching as a potential micro foundation of the aggregate matching function is studied. In the essay I show that newly unemployed match mainly with the stock of vacancies while longer term unemployed match with the inflow of vacancies. When aggregating I still find evidence of the traditional aggregate matching function. This could explain the huge support the aggregate matching function has received despite its odd randomness assumption. The third essay, How do Registered Job Seekers really match? -Finnish occupational level Evidence, studies matching for nine occupational groups and finds that very different matching problems exist for different occupations. In this essay also misspecification stemming from non-corresponding variables is dealt with through the introduction of a completely new set of variables. The new outflow measure used is vacancies filled with registered job seekers and it is matched by the supply side measure registered job seekers.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

Relationship Drivers in Provider - Consumer Relationships. Empirical Studies of Customer Loyalty Programs (första upplagan slutsåld / first edition sold out, 'print on demand' 60 €)

The study addressed a phenomenon that has become common marketing practice, customer loyalty programs. Although a common type of consumer relationship, there is limited knowledge of its nature. The purpose of the study was to create structured understanding of the nature of customer relationships from both the provider’s and the consumer’s viewpoints by studying relationship drivers and proposing the concept of relational motivation as a provider of a common framework for the analysis of these views. The theoretical exploration focused on reasons for engaging in customer relationships for both the consumer and the provider. The themes of buying behaviour, industrial and network marketing and relationship marketing, as well as the concepts of a customer relationship, customer loyalty, relationship conditions, relational benefits, bonds and commitment were explored and combined in a new way. Concepts from the study of business-to-business relationships were brought over and their power in explaining the nature of consumer relationships examined. The study provided a comprehensive picture of loyalty programs, which is an important contribution to the academic as well as the managerial discussions. The consumer study provided deep insights into the nature of customer relationships. The study provides a new frame of reference to support the existing concepts of loyalty and commitment with the introduction of the relationship driver and relational motivation concepts. The result is a novel view of the nature of customer relationships that creates new understanding of the forces leading to loyal behaviour and commitment. The study concludes with managerial implications.

Perceived Value of Mobile Service Use and its Consequences

The thesis is positioned in the services marketing field. Previous mobile service research has identified perceived value or relative advantage as a stable predictor of use of services. However, a more detailed view of what customers value in mobile services is needed for marketing diverse types of mobile content and attracting committed customers. The direct relationships between multidimensional value and loyalty constructs have received limited attention in the previous literature, although a multidimensional view is needed for differentiating services. This thesis studies how perceived value of mobile service use affects customer commitment, repurchase intentions, word-of-mouth and willingness to pay. The doctoral thesis consists of three journal articles and one working paper. The four papers have different sub-aims and comprise individual empirical studies. Mixed methods including both personal interviews and survey data collected from end-users of different types of mobile content services are used. The conceptual mobile perceived value model that results from the first explorative empirical study supports a six- dimensional value view. The six dimensions are further categorized into two higher order constructs: content-related perceived value (emotional, social, convenience and monetary value) and context-related (epistemic and conditional value) perceived value. Structural equation modeling is used in the other three studies to validate this framework by analyzing the relationships between context- and content-related value, and how the individual perceived value dimensions affect commitment and behavioral outcomes. Analyzing the direct relationships revealed differences in the effect of perceived value dimensions between information and entertainment mobile service user groups, between effects on commitment, repurchase intentions and word-of-mouth intentions, as well as between effects on commitment to the provider and to the mobile channel as such. This thesis contributes to earlier perceived value literature by structuring the value dimensions into two groups. Most importantly, the thesis contributes to the value and loyalty literature by increasing understanding of how the different dimensions of perceived value directly affect commitment and post-purchase intentions. The results have implications for further theory development in the electronic services field using multidimensional latent constructs, and practical implications for enhancing commitment to content provider and for differentiated marketing strategies in the mobile field. The general conclusion of this thesis is that differentiated value-based marketing of mobile services is essential for attracting committed customers who will use the same providers’ content also in the future. Minna Pihlström is associated with the Centre for Relationship Marketing and Service Management (CERS) at Hanken.

Customer Value in E-Service: Conceptual Foundation and Empirical Evidence

Customer value has been identified as “the reason” for customers to patronize a firm, and as one of the fundamental blocks that market exchanges build upon. Despite the importance of customer value, it is often poorly defined, or seems to refer to different phenomena. This dissertation contributes to current marketing literature by subjecting the value concept to a critical investigation, and by clarifying its conceptual foundation. Based on the literature review, it is proposed that customer value can be divided into two separate, but interrelated aspects: value creation processes, and value outcome determination. This means that on one hand, it is possible to examine those activities through which value is created, and on the other hand, investigate how customers determine the value outcomes they receive. The results further show that customers may determine value in four different ways: value as a benefit/sacrifice ratio, as experience outcomes, as means-end chains, and value as phenomenological. In value as benefit/sacrifice ratio, customers are expected to calculate the ratio between service benefits (e.g. ease of use) and sacrifices (e.g. price). In value as experience outcomes, customers are suggested to experience multiple value components, such as functional, emotional, or social value. Customer value as means-ends chains in turn models value in terms of the relationships between service characteristics, use value, and desirable ends (e.g. social acceptance). Finally, value as phenomenological proposes that value emerges from lived, holistic experiences. The empirical papers investigate customer value in e-services, including online health care and mobile services, and show how value in e-service stems from the process and content quality, use context, and the service combination that a customer uses. In conclusion, marketers should understand that different value definitions generate different types of understanding of customer value. In addition, it is clear that studying value from several perspectives is useful, as it enables a richer understanding of value for the different actors. Finally, the interconnectedness between value creation and determination is surprisingly little researched, and this dissertation proposes initial steps towards understanding the relationship between the two.

Strategic Priorities, Company Performance and Attitudes Towards Management Accounting Techniques: an Empirical Study

The study investigates whether there is an association between different combinations of emphasis on generic strategies (product differentiation and cost efficiency) and perceived usefulness of management accounting techniques. Previous research has found that cost leadership is associated with traditional accounting techniques and product differentiation with a variety of modern management accounting approaches. The present study focuses on the possible existence of a strategy that mixes these generic strategies. The empirical results suggest that (a) there is no difference in the attitudes towards the usefulness of traditional management accounting techniques between companies that adhere either to a single strategy or a mixed strategy; (b) there is no difference in the attitudes towards modern and traditional techniques between companies that adhere to a single strategy, whether this is product differentiation or cost efficiency, and c) companies that favour a mixed strategy seem to have a more positive attitude towards modern techniques than companies adhering to a single strategy

Factors Driving Stock Option Grants - Empirical Evidence from Finland

This study contributes to the executive stock option literature by looking at factors driving the introduction of such a compensation form on a firm level. Using a discrete decision model I test the explanatory power of several agency theory based variables and find strong support for predictability of the form of executive compensation. Ownership concentration and liquidity are found to have a significant negative effect on the probability of stock option adoption. Furtermore, I find evidence of CEO ownership, institutional ownership, investment intensity, and historical market return having a significant and a positive relationship to the likelihood of adopting a executive stock option program.

An Empirical Investigation of Value-at-Risk in Long and Short Trading Positions

This paper uses the Value-at-Risk approach to define the risk in both long and short trading positions. The investigation is done on some major market indices(Japanese, UK, German and US). The performance of models that takes into account skewness and fat-tails are compared to symmetric models in relation to both the specific model for estimating the variance, and the distribution of the variance estimate used as input in the VaR estimation. The results indicate that more flexible models not necessarily perform better in predicting the VaR forecast; the reason for this is most probably the complexity of these models. A general result is that different methods for estimating the variance are needed for different confidence levels of the VaR, and for the different indices. Also, different models are to be used for the left respectively the right tail of the distribution.

Examining and Modeling the Dynamics of the Volatility Surface

The objective of this paper is to investigate and model the characteristics of the prevailing volatility smiles and surfaces on the DAX- and ESX-index options markets. Continuing on the trend of Implied Volatility Functions, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model is introduced and fitted to historical data. The model replaces the constant volatility parameter of the Black & Scholes pricing model with a matrix of volatilities with respect to moneyness and maturity and is tested out-of-sample. Considering the dynamics, the results show support for the hypotheses put forward in this study, implying that the smile increases in magnitude when maturity and ATM volatility decreases and that there is a negative/positive correlation between a change in the underlying asset/time to maturity and implied ATM volatility. Further, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model indicates an improvement to pricing accuracy compared to previous Implied Volatility Function models, however indicating that the parameters of the models are to be re-estimated continuously for the models to fully capture the changing dynamics of the volatility smiles.