Essays in the political economy of voting and reforms

This thesis presents four essays in the political economy of elections and reforms. The first study exploits discontinuities around school entry cut-off dates to show that early childhood conditions can impact the probability to become a top-flight politician. The second study provides empirical estimates of the effect of sequential voting on turnout and bandwagon voting outside the laboratory. The third work describes a novel nonparametric strategy to identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results using British election data. Finally, a study is put forward that examines the political feasibility of reforms.

Social media for libraries : with specific reference to SABC Media Libraries

The social media statistics of South Africa reveal an exponential increase in the use of social media. Libraries, as part of a community, cannot ignore this! Social media provide libraries instant and direct connection with their members regardless their geographical location. This paper explores social media use in libraries. The establishment of social media for the SABC Media Libraries is discussed to demonstrate a practical implementation of social media in libraries and archives. Tips and resources, with specific mention to Twitter and Facebook, as well as social media etiquette and social media policy guidelines are supplied. The literature of published articles and Infographic show the changing role of librarians in the social media era and the need for librarians to keep learning and update their skills to accommodate users’ needs. The focus should now be on how well we do social media for the library, not on whether we should do it or not!

Foreign direct investment and technology spillovers in sub-Saharan Africa

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an effective conduit for technology transfer through technology spillovers to domestically owned firms in the host country. This study analyses the significance of productivity externalities of FDI to local firms, in terms of both intra-industry and inter-industry spillovers, using firm-level data from Kenya, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. The results show evidences in support of intra- and inter-industry productivity spillovers from FDI for Kenya and Zimbabwe. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Participatory action research for civic engagement

The future of civic engagement is characterised by both technological innovation as well as new technological user practices that are fuelled by trends towards mobile, personal devices; broadband connectivity; open data; urban interfaces; and, cloud computing. These technology trends are progressing at a rapid pace, and have led global technology vendors to package and sell the ‘Smart City’ as a centralized service delivery platform predicted to optimize and enhance cities’ key performance indicators – and generate a profitable market. The top-down deployment of these large and proprietary technology platforms have helped sectors such as energy, transport, and healthcare to increase efficiencies. However, an increasing number of scholars and commentators warn of another ‘IT bubble’ emerging. Along with some city leaders, they argue that the top-down approach does not fit the governance dynamics and values of a liberal democracy when applied across sectors. A thorough understanding is required, of the socio-cultural nuances of how people work, live, play across different environments, and how they employ social media and mobile devices to interact with, engage in, and constitute public realms. Although the term ‘slacktivism’ is sometimes used to denote a watered down version of civic engagement and activism that is reduced to clicking a ‘Like’ button and signing online petitions, we believe that we are far from witnessing another Biedermeier period that saw people focus on the domestic and the non-political. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary, such as post-election violence in Kenya in 2008, the Occupy movements in New York, Hong Kong and elsewhere, the Arab Spring, Stuttgart 21, Fukushima, the Taksim Gezi Park in Istanbul, and the Vinegar Movement in Brazil in 2013. These examples of civic action shape the dynamics of governments, and in turn, call for new processes to be incorporated into governance structures. Participatory research into these new processes across the triad of people, place and technology is a significant and timely investment to foster productive, sustainable, and livable human habitats. With this chapter, we want to reframe the current debates in academia and priorities in industry and government to allow citizens and civic actors to take their rightful centerpiece place in civic movements. This calls for new participatory approaches for co-inquiry and co-design. It is an evolving process with an explicit agenda to facilitate change, and we propose participatory action research (PAR) as an indispensable component in the journey to develop new governance infrastructures and practices for civic engagement. This chapter proposes participatory action research as a useful and fitting research paradigm to guide methodological considerations surrounding the study, design, development, and evaluation of civic technologies. We do not limit our definition of civic technologies to tools specifically designed to simply enhance government and governance, such as renewing your car registration online or casting your vote electronically on election day. Rather, we are interested in civic media and technologies that foster citizen engagement in the widest sense, and particularly the participatory design of such civic technologies that strive to involve citizens in political debate and action as well as question conventional approaches to political issues (DiSalvo, 2012; Dourish, 2010; Foth et al., 2013). Following an outline of some underlying principles and assumptions behind participatory action research, especially as it applies to cities, we will critically review case studies to illustrate the application of this approach with a view to engender robust, inclusive, and dynamic societies built on the principles of engaged liberal democracy. The rationale for this approach is an alternative to smart cities in a ‘perpetual tomorrow,’ (cf. e.g. Dourish & Bell, 2011), based on many weak and strong signals of civic actions revolving around technology seen today. It seeks to emphasize and direct attention to active citizenry over passive consumerism, human actors over human factors, culture over infrastructure, and prosperity over efficiency. First, we will have a look at some fundamental issues arising from applying simplistic smart city visions to the kind of a problem a city is (cf. Jacobs, 1961). We focus on the touch points between “the city” and its civic body, the citizens. In order to provide for meaningful civic engagement, the city must provide appropriate interfaces.

Microscopy for the detection, identification and quantification of malaria parasites on stained thick and thin blood films in research settings

Summary This manual was developed to guide a move towards common standards for undertaking and reporting research microscopy for malaria parasite detection, identification and quantification. It contains procedures based on agreed quality assurance standards for research malaria microscopy defined at a consultation of: TDR, the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases; the Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN), United Kingdom; the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), Switzerland; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), USA; the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) and later expanded to include Amref Health Africa (Kenya); the Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit (EOCRU), Indonesia; Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (IPC); Institut de recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Senegal; the Global Good and Intellectual Ventures Laboratory (GG-IVL), USA; the Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Thailand; Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Australia, and the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit (SMRU), Thailand. These collaborating institutions commit to adhering to these standards in published research studies. It is hoped that they will form a solid basis for the wider adoption of standardized reference microscopy protocols for malaria research.

Mating compatibility between bactrocera invadens and bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The invasive fruit fly, Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White, is a highly polyphagous fruit pest that occurs predominantly in Africa yet has its origins in the Indian subcontinent. It is extremely morphologically and genetically similar to the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel); as such the specific relationship between these two species is unresolved. We assessed prezygotic compatibility between B. dorsalis and B. invadens using standardized field cage mating tests, which have proven effectiveness in tephritid cryptic species studies. These tests were followed by an assessment of postzygotic compatibility by examining egg viability, larval and pupal survival, and sex ratios of offspring produced from parental and subsequent F1 crosses to examine for hybrid breakdown as predicted under a two-species hypothesis. B. dorsalis was sourced from two countries (Pakistan and China), and each population was compared with B. invadens from its type locality of Kenya. B. invadens mated randomly with B. dorsalis from both localities, and there were generally high levels of hybrid viability and survival resulting from parental and F1 crosses. Furthermore, all but one hybrid cross resulted in equal sex ratios, with the single deviation in favor of males and contrary to expectations under Haldane's rule. These data support the hypothesis that B. dorsalis and B. invadens represent the same biological species, an outcome that poses significant implications for pest management and international trade for sub-Saharan Africa.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Twitter hashtags from ad hoc to calculated publics

As the use of Twitter has become more commonplace throughout many nations, its role in political discussion has also increased. This has been evident in contexts ranging from general political discussion through local, state, and national elections (such as in the 2010 Australian elections) to protests and other activist mobilisation (for example in the current uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen, as well as in the controversy around Wikileaks). Research into the use of Twitter in such political contexts has also developed rapidly, aided by substantial advancements in quantitative and qualitative methodologies for capturing, processing, analysing, and visualising Twitter updates by large groups of users. Recent work has especially highlighted the role of the Twitter hashtag – a short keyword, prefixed with the hash symbol ‘#’ – as a means of coordinating a distributed discussion between more or less large groups of users, who do not need to be connected through existing ‘follower’ networks. Twitter hashtags – such as ‘#ausvotes’ for the 2010 Australian elections, ‘#londonriots’ for the coordination of information and political debates around the recent unrest in London, or ‘#wikileaks’ for the controversy around Wikileaks thus aid the formation of ad hoc publics around specific themes and topics. They emerge from within the Twitter community – sometimes as a result of pre-planning or quickly reached consensus, sometimes through protracted debate about what the appropriate hashtag for an event or topic should be (which may also lead to the formation of competing publics using different hashtags). Drawing on innovative methodologies for the study of Twitter content, this paper examines the use of hashtags in political debate in the context of a number of major case studies.

Social media in selected Australian federal and state election campaigns, 2010-15

Campaigning in Australian election campaigns at local, state, and federal levels is fundamentally affected by the fact that voting is compulsory in Australia, with citizens who are found to have failed to cast their vote subject to fines. This means that - contrary to the situation in most other nations – elections are decided not by which candidate or party has managed to encourage the largest number of nominal supporters to make the effort to cast their vote, but by some 10-20% of genuine ‘swinging voters’ who change their party preferences from one election to the next. Political campaigning is thus aimed less at existing party supporters (so-called ‘rusted on’ voters whose continued support for the party is essentially taken for granted) than at this genuinely undecided middle of the electorate. Over the past decades, this has resulted in a comparatively timid, vague campaigning style from both major party blocs (the progressive Australian Labor Party [ALP] and the conservative Coalition of the Liberal and National Parties [L/NP]). Election commitments that run the risk of being seen as too partisan and ideological are avoided as they could scare away swinging voters, and recent elections have been fought as much (or more) on the basis of party leaders’ perceived personas as they have on stated policies, even though Australia uses a parliamentary system in which the Prime Minister and state Premiers are elected by their party room rather than directly by voters. At the same time, this perceived lack of distinctiveness in policies between the major parties has also enabled the emergence of new, smaller parties which (under Australia’s Westminster-derived political system) have no hope of gaining a parliamentary majority but could, in a close election, come to hold the balance of power and thus exert disproportionate influence on a government which relies on their support.

May the best Tweeter win : The Twitter strategies of key campaign accounts in the 2012 US election

The 2008 US election has been heralded as the first presidential election of the social media era, but took place at a time when social media were still in a state of comparative infancy; so much so that the most important platform was not Facebook or Twitter, but the purpose-built campaign site my.barackobama.com, which became the central vehicle for the most successful electoral fundraising campaign in American history. By 2012, the social media landscape had changed: Facebook and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Twitter are now well-established as the leading social media platforms in the United States, and were used extensively by the campaign organisations of both candidates. As third-party spaces controlled by independent commercial entities, however, their use necessarily differs from that of home-grown, party-controlled sites: from the point of view of the platform itself, a @BarackObama or @MittRomney is technically no different from any other account, except for the very high follower count and an exceptional volume of @mentions. In spite of the significant social media experience which Democrat and Republican campaign strategists had already accumulated during the 2008 campaign, therefore, the translation of such experience to the use of Facebook and Twitter in their 2012 incarnations still required a substantial amount of new work, experimentation, and evaluation. This chapter examines the Twitter strategies of the leading accounts operated by both campaign headquarters: the ‘personal’ candidate accounts @BarackObama and @MittRomney as well as @JoeBiden and @PaulRyanVP, and the campaign accounts @Obama2012 and @TeamRomney. Drawing on datasets which capture all tweets from and at these accounts during the final months of the campaign (from early September 2012 to the immediate aftermath of the election night), we reconstruct the campaigns’ approaches to using Twitter for electioneering from the quantitative and qualitative patterns of their activities, and explore the resonance which these accounts have found with the wider Twitter userbase. A particular focus of our investigation in this context will be on the tweeting styles of these accounts: the mixture of original messages, @replies, and retweets, and the level and nature of engagement with everyday Twitter followers. We will examine whether the accounts chose to respond (by @replying) to the messages of support or criticism which were directed at them, whether they retweeted any such messages (and whether there was any preferential retweeting of influential or – alternatively – demonstratively ordinary users), and/or whether they were used mainly to broadcast and disseminate prepared campaign messages. Our analysis will highlight any significant differences between the accounts we examine, trace changes in style over the course of the final campaign months, and correlate such stylistic differences with the respective electoral positioning of the candidates. Further, we examine the use of these accounts during moments of heightened attention (such as the presidential and vice-presidential debates, or in the context of controversies such as that caused by the publication of the Romney “47%” video; additional case studies may emerge over the remainder of the campaign) to explore how they were used to present or defend key talking points, and exploit or avert damage from campaign gaffes. A complementary analysis of the messages directed at the campaign accounts (in the form of @replies or retweets) will also provide further evidence for the extent to which these talking points were picked up and disseminated by the wider Twitter population. Finally, we also explore the use of external materials (links to articles, images, videos, and other content on the campaign sites themselves, in the mainstream media, or on other platforms) by the campaign accounts, and the resonance which these materials had with the wider follower base of these accounts. This provides an indication of the integration of Twitter into the overall campaigning process, by highlighting how the platform was used as a means of encouraging the viral spread of campaign propaganda (such as advertising materials) or of directing user attention towards favourable media coverage. By building on comprehensive, large datasets of Twitter activity (as of early October, our combined datasets comprise some 3.8 million tweets) which we process and analyse using custom-designed social media analytics tools, and by using our initial quantitative analysis to guide further qualitative evaluation of Twitter activity around these campaign accounts, we are able to provide an in-depth picture of the use of Twitter in political campaigning during the 2012 US election which will provide detailed new insights social media use in contemporary elections. This analysis will then also be able to serve as a touchstone for the analysis of social media use in subsequent elections, in the USA as well as in other developed nations where Twitter and other social media platforms are utilised in electioneering.

Mapinduzi Daima – Revolution Forever : Using the 1964 Revolution in Nationalistic Political Discourses in Zanzibar

This Master's thesis examines two opposite nationalistic discourses on the revolution of Zanzibar. Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the party in power since the 1964 revolution defends its revolutionary and "African" heritage in the current multi-party system. New nationalists, including among others the main opposition party Civic United Front (CUF), question both the 1964 revolution and the post-revolution period and blame CCM for empty promises, corruption and ethnic discrimination. This study analyzes the role of a significant historical event in the creation of nationalistic ideology and national identity. The 1964 revolution forms the nucleus of various debates related to the history of Zanzibar: slavery, colonialism, racial discrimination and political violence. Representations of these Social constructivist principles form the basis of this study, and central concepts in the theoretical framework are nationalism, national identity, ethnicity and race. I use critical discourse analysis as my research method, lean on the work by Teun A. van Dijk and Norman Fairclough as the most significant researchers in this field. I examine particularly the ways in which linguistic methods, such as stereotypes and metaphors are used to form in- and out-groups ("us" vs. "others"). My material, both in Swahili and English, was collected mainly in Tanzania in the fall of 2007 and from online sources in the spring of 2009. It includes publications by the Zanzibari government between the years of 1964-2000 (12), official speeches for the Revolution Day or the Union Day (12), articles from Tanzanian newspapers from the 1990s until the year of 2009 (15), memoirs and political pamphlets (10), blog posts and opinion pieces from four different websites (8), and interviews or personal communication in Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam and Uppsala (8). Nationalistic rhetoric often creates enemy images by using binary good-bad oppositions. Both discourses in this study build identities on the basis of "otherness" and exclusion, with the intent of emphasizing the particularity of the own group and excluding "evilness" outside the own reference group. These opposite views on the 1964 revolution as the main axis of the history of Zanzibar build different portraits of the nation and Zanzibari-ness (Uzanzibari). CCM still relies on the pre-revolutionary enemy images of Arabs as selfish rulers and cruel slave traders. For CCM, Zanzibar is primarily an "African" nation and a part of Tanzania which is threatened by "Arabs", the outsiders. In contrast, the new nationalists stress the long history of Zanzibar as multi-racial, cosmopolitan and formerly independent country which has its own, separate culture and identity from mainland Tanzanians. Heshima, honour/respect, one of the basic values of Swahili culture, occupies a central role in both discourses: the main party emphasizes that the revolution returned "heshima" to the Zanzibari Africans after centuries of humiliation, whereas the new nationalists claim that ever since the revolution all "non-Africans" have been humiliated and lost their "heshima". According to the new nationalists, true Zanzibari values which include tolerance and harmony between different "races" were lost when the "foreign" revolutionaries arrived from the mainland. Consequently, they see the 1964 revolution as Tanganyikan colonialism which began with the help of Western countries, and maintain that this "colonialism" still continues in the violent multi-party elections.

Acacia nilotica ssp. indica (L.) Willd. ex Del. (Mimosaceae)

Prickly acacia, a Weed of National Significance or WONS, is a serious problem in Queensland particularly the Mitchell grass downs where it was once planted to provide shade for livestock. The chapter summarises current knowledge about the taxonomy, biology, distribution, ecology, impacts and biological control of the weed. Queensland has been trying to achieve biological control of prickly acacia since 1980 when it began foreign exploration in Pakistan. Since then further exploration was undertaken in Kenya, South Africa and presently India. Six insects have been released in Queensland but only two of these are established. Greater emphasis is being placed on climate matching, plant response to herbivory and genotype matching in present work and it is hoped that this approach will allow more rigorous evaluations of agent performance and better understanding of reasons for success or failure of agents.

The introduction and release of Chiasmia inconspicua and C. assimilis (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) for the biological control of Acacia nilotica in Australia

Two geometrid moths Chiasmia inconspicua and Chiasmia assimilis, identified as potential biological control agents for prickly acacia Acacia nilotica subsp. indica, were collected in Kenya and imported into quarantine facilities in Australia where laboratory cultures were established. Aspects of the biologies of both insects were studied and CLIMEX® models indicating the climatically favourable areas of Australia were developed. Host range tests were conducted using an approved test list of 74 plant species and no-choice tests of neonate larvae placed on both cut foliage and potted plants. C. inconspicua developed through to adult on prickly acacia and, in small numbers, Acacia pulchella. C. assimilis developed through to adult on prickly acacia and also in very small numbers on A. pulchella, A. deanei, A. decurrens, and A. mearnsii. In all experiments, the response on prickly acacia could be clearly differentiated from the responses on the non-target species. Both insects were approved for release in Australia. Over a three-year period releases were made at multiple sites in north Queensland, almost all in inland areas. There was no evidence of either insect's establishment and both colonies were terminated. A new colony of C. assimilis was subsequently established from insects collected in South Africa and releases of C. assimilis from this new colony were made into coastal and inland infestations of prickly acacia. Establishment was rapid at one coastal site and the insect quickly spread to other infestations. Establishment at one inland area was also confirmed in early 2006. The establishment in coastal areas supported a CLIMEX model that indicated that the climate of coastal areas was more suitable than inland areas.