Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Large-system analysis of a CDMA dynamic channel under a Markovian input process

We study the minimum mean square error (MMSE) and the multiuser efficiency η of large dynamic multiple access communication systems in which optimal multiuser detection is performed at the receiver as the number and the identities of active users is allowed to change at each transmission time. The system dynamics are ruled by a Markov model describing the evolution of the channel occupancy and a large-system analysis is performed when the number of observations grow large. Starting on the equivalent scalar channel and the fixed-point equation tying multiuser efficiency and MMSE, we extend it to the case of a dynamic channel, and derive lower and upper bounds for the MMSE (and, thus, for η as well) holding true in the limit of large signal–to–noise ratios and increasingly large observation time T.

Correlations between imatinib pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, adherence, and clinical response in advanced metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST): An emerging role for drug blood level testing?

Imatinib is the standard of care for patients with advanced metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), and is also approved for adjuvant treatment in patients at substantial risk of relapse. Studies have shown that maximizing benefit from imatinib depends on long-term administration at recommended doses. Pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic factors, adherence, and drug-drug interactions can affect exposure to imatinib and impact clinical outcomes. This article reviews the relevance of these factors to imatinib's clinical activity and response in the context of what has been demonstrated in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), and in light of new data correlating imatinib exposure to response in patients with GIST. Because of the wide inter-patient variability in drug exposure with imatinib in both CML and GIST, blood level testing (BLT) may play a role in investigating instances of suboptimal response, unusually severe toxicities, drug-drug interactions, and suspected non-adherence. Published clinical data in CML and in GIST were considered, including data from a PK substudy of the B2222 trial correlating imatinib blood levels with clinical responses in patients with GIST. Imatinib trough plasma levels <1100ng/mL were associated with lower rates of objective response and faster development of progressive disease in patients with GIST. These findings have been supported by other analyses correlating free imatinib (unbound) levels with response. These results suggest a future application for imatinib BLT in predicting and optimizing therapeutic response. Nevertheless, early estimates of threshold imatinib blood levels must be confirmed prospectively in future studies and elaborated for different patient subgroups.

Pédiatrie. 3. Le score de McIsaac: une aide à l'indication des tests de diagnostic rapide dans tes angines à streptocoques A [Pediatrics. Using the McIsaac score for the indication of rapid diagnostic testing in children with streptococcal pharyngitis].

The McIsaac scoring system is a tool designed to predict the probability of streptococcal pharyngitis in children aged 3 to 17 years with a sore throat. Although it does not allow the physician to make the diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngitis, it enables to identify those children with a sore throat in whom rapid antigen detection tests have a good predictive value.

Testing for local adaptation in brown trout using reciprocal transplants.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Local adaptation can drive the divergence of populations but identification of the traits under selection remains a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Reciprocal transplant experiments are ideal tests of local adaptation, yet rarely used for higher vertebrates because of the mobility and potential invasiveness of non-native organisms. Here, we reciprocally transplanted 2500 brown trout (Salmo trutta) embryos from five populations to investigate local adaptation in early life history traits. Embryos were bred in a full-factorial design and raised in natural riverbeds until emergence. Customized egg capsules were used to simulate the natural redd environment and allowed tracking the fate of every individual until retrieval. We predicted that 1) within sites, native populations would outperform non-natives, and 2) across sites, populations would show higher performance at 'home' compared to 'away' sites. RESULTS: There was no evidence for local adaptation but we found large differences in survival and hatching rates between sites, indicative of considerable variation in habitat quality. Survival was generally high across all populations (55% +/- 3%), but ranged from 4% to 89% between sites. Average hatching rate was 25% +/- 3% across populations ranging from 0% to 62% between sites. CONCLUSION: This study provides rare empirical data on variation in early life history traits in a population network of a salmonid, and large-scale breeding and transplantation experiments like ours provide powerful tests for local adaptation. Despite the recently reported genetic and morphological differences between the populations in our study area, local adaptation at the embryo level is small, non-existent, or confined to ecological conditions that our experiment could not capture.

Alliance patterns over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: The shape of productive relationships.

The shape of alliance processes over the course of psychotherapy has already been studied in several process-outcome studies on very brief psychotherapy. The present study applies the shape-of-change methodology to short-term dynamic psychotherapies and complements this method with hierarchical linear modeling. A total of 50 psychotherapies of up to 40 sessions were included. Alliance was measured at the end of each session. The results indicate that a linear progression model is most adequate. Three main patterns were found: stable, linear, and quadratic growth. The linear growth pattern, along with the slope parameter, was related to treatment outcome. This study sheds additional light on alliance process research, underscores the importance of linear alliance progression for outcome, and also fosters a better understanding of its limitations.

Opportunistic testing for urogenital infection with Chlamydia trachomatis in south-western Switzerland, 2012 : a feasibility study

The feasibility of opportunistic screening of urogenital infections with Chlamydia trachomatis was assessed in a cross-sectional study in 2012, in two cantons of south-western Switzerland: Vaud and Valais. Sexually active persons younger than 30 years, not tested for C. trachomatis in the last three months, were invited for free C. trachomatis testing by PCR in urine or self-applied vaginal swabs. Of 2,461 consenting participants, 1,899 (77%) were women and all but six (0.3%) submitted a sample. Forty-seven per cent of female and 25% of male participants were younger than 20 years. Overall, 134 (5.5%) of 2,455 tested participants had a positive result and were followed up. Seven per cent of all candidates for screening were not invited, 10% of invited candidates were not eligible, 15% of the eligible candidates declined participation, 5% of tested participants testing positive were not treated, 29% of those treated were not retested after six months and 9% of those retested were positive for C. trachomatis. Opportunistic C. trachomatis testing proved technically feasible and acceptable, at least if free of charge. Men and peripheral rural regions were more difficult to reach. Efforts to increase testing and decrease dropout at all stages of the screening procedure are necessary.

Immunoscintigraphic localization of inflammatory lesions: concept, radiolabelling and in vitro testing of a granulocyte specific antibody.

Current nuclear medicine techniques for the localization of inflammatory processes are based on injection of 111In labelled autologous granulocytes which need to be isolated and radiolabelled in vitro before reinjection. A new technique is presented here that obviates the need for cell isolation by the direct intravenous injection of a granulocyte specific 123I labelled monoclonal antibody. In this publication the basic parameters of the antibody granulocyte interaction are described. Antibody binding does not inhibit vital functions of the granulocytes, such as chemotaxis and superoxide generation. Scatchard analysis of binding data reveals an apparent affinity of the antibody for granulocytes of 6.8 X 10(9) l/mol and approximately 7.1 X 10(4) binding sites per cell. Due to the high specificity of the antibody, the only expected interference is from CEA producing tumors.

Taajuusmuuttajien suorituskyvyn automaattinen testausympäristö

Tämä insinöörityö tehtiin ABB Oy, Drivesin Product AC -tulosyksikön tuotekehitysosastolle Helsingissä. Työssä kehitettiin taajuusmuuttajien suorituskyvyn automaattinen testausympäristö. ABB:n taajuusmuuttajien suorituskykytestejä ei ole aikaisemmin automatisoitu. Testit on tehty käsin ja niiden suorittamiseen ja tulosten käsittelyyn on kulunut paljon aikaa. Automaattisella testauksella pyrittiin testien suorittamiseen ja tulosten käsittelyyn kuluvan ajan huomattavaan pienentymiseen. Työssä ei ollut tarkoituksena tehdä suorituskykytestejä vaan kehittää automaattinen testausympäristö eli suorituskykytestipenkki, jossa suorituskykytestit on mahdollista suorittaa. Työssä keskityttiin taajuusmuuttajan nopeus- ja momenttisäätäjien suorituskykyyn. Työ toteutettiin suunnittelu- ja ohjelmointityönä. Testausympäristön laitteisto perustuu ABB:n tuotekehityslaboratorioiden olemassaoleviin testipaikkoihin. Testausympäristössä käytetään taajuusmuuttajien lisäksi pääasiassa kolmivaiheisia oikosulkumoottoreita. Lisäksi laitteistoon kuuluu ACS800-sarjan taajuusmuuttaja kuormakäyttönä, momenttianturi ja takometri eli kierrosnopeusmittari. Ohjelmointi tehtiin National Instrumentsin LabVIEW-ohjelmointiympäristön versiolla 8.0. Testausympäristön käyttöliittymänä toimii saman yrityksen TestStand-testausohjelmiston versio 3.5. Testattavien taajuusmuuttajien ohjausta ja momenttianturin lukemista varten ohjelmoitiin virtuaali-instrumentteja. Virtuaali-instrumentteja kutsutaan TestStand-testisekvensseistä. Testisekvenssit luodaan TestStandin sekvenssieditorilla ja suoritetaan sekvenssieditorissa tai operaattorin käyttöliittymässä. Työn tuloksena syntyi taajuusmuuttajien suorituskyvyn automaattinen testausympäristö. Testausympäristöä voidaan hyödyntää sekä nykyisen että seuraavan sukupolven taajuusmuuttajien testauksessa. Sillä on mahdollista suorittaa yleisimmät taajuusmuuttajien suorituskykytestit, kuten nopeus- ja momenttisäätöjen staattinen ja dynaaminen tarkkuus, hyvin kattavasti. Testit voidaan automaattisesti suorittaa koko testikäytön sallimalla pyörimisnopeus- ja kuormitusalueella. Näytteenottotaajuus voi olla enintään 1 kHz luettaessa pyörimisnopeutta ACS800-sarjan taajuusmuuttajan kautta ja momenttianturia samanaikaisesti. Virtuaali-instrumenteista koostuvia testisekvenssejä voidaan vapaasti muokata ja kehittää testejä edelleen tai luoda kokonaan uusia testejä. Testausympäristö perustuu teollisuudessa yleisesti käytettyihin ohjelmistoihin ja tarjoaa hyvät mahdollisuudet jatkokehitykselle.

Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliary regression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d ∈ [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d & 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 ≤ d & 1,, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributed tests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.

Testing the predictive adaptive response in a host-parasite system

1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.

Genetic testing in patients with obesity.

The obesity epidemic is associated with the recent availability of highly palatable and inexpensive caloric food as well as important changes in lifestyle. Genetic factors, however, play a key role in regulating energy balance and numerous twin studies have estimated the BMI heritability between 40 and 70%. While common variants, identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) point toward new pathways, their effect size are too low to be of any use in the clinic. This review therefore concentrates on genes and genomic regions associated with very high risks of human obesity. Although there are no consensus guidelines, we review how the knowledge on these "causal factors" can be translated into the clinic for diagnostic purposes. We propose genetic workups guided by clinical manifestations in patients with severe early-onset obesity. While etiological diagnoses are unequivocal in a minority of patients, new genomic tools such as Comparative Genomic Hybridization (CGH) array, have allowed the identification of novel "causal" loci and next-generation sequencing brings the promise of accelerated pace for discoveries relevant to clinical practice.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Controlled dynamic generation of standard 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate aerosols

A procedure for the dynamic generation of 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) aerosol atmospheres of 70 micrograms m-3 (0.01 ppm) to 1.75 mg m-3 (0.25 ppm), based on the precise control of the evaporation of pure liquid HDI and subsequent dilution with air, was developed. The apparatus consisted of a home-made glass nebulizer coupled with a separation stage to exclude non-respirable droplets (greater than 10 microns). The aerosol concentrations were achieved by passing air through the nebulizer at 1.5-4.5 l. min-1 to generate dynamically 0.01-0.25 ppm of diisocyanate in an experimental chamber of 8.55 m3. The distribution of the liquid aerosol was established with an optical counter and the diisocyanate concentration was determined from samples collected in impingers by a high-pressure liquid chromatographic method. The atmospheres generated were suitable for the evaluation both of sampling procedures full scale, and of analytical methods: at 140 micrograms m-3 (0.02 ppm) they remained stable for 15-min provocation tests in clinical asthma, as verified by breath-zone sampling of exposed patients.

Condom use with steady partners among heterosexual people living with HIV in Europe: testing the information-motivation-behavioral skills model.

Guided by a modified information-motivation-behavioral skills model, this study identified predictors of condom use among heterosexual people living with HIV with their steady partners. Consecutive patients at 14 European HIV outpatient clinics received an anonymous, standardized, self-administered questionnaire between March and December 2007. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and two-step backward elimination regression analyses stratified by gender. The survey included 651 participants (n = 364, 56% women; n = 287, 44%). Mean age was 39 years for women and 43 years for men. Most had acquired HIV sexually and more than half were in a serodiscordant relationship. Sixty-three percent (n = 229) of women and 59% of men (n = 169) reported at least one sexual encounter with a steady partner 6 months prior to the survey. Fifty-one percent (n = 116) of women and 59% of men (n = 99) used condoms consistently with that partner. In both genders, condom use was positively associated with subjective norm conducive to condom use, and self-efficacy to use condoms. Having a partner whose HIV status was positive or unknown reduced condom use. In men, higher education and knowledge about condom use additionally increased condom use, while the use of erectile-enhancing medication decreased it. For women, HIV disclosure to partners additionally reduced the likelihood of condom use. Positive attitudes to condom use and subjective norm increased self-efficacy in both genders, however, a number of gender-related differences appeared to influence self-efficacy. Service providers should pay attention to the identified predictors of condom use and adopt comprehensive and gender-related approaches for preventive interventions with people living with HIV.