The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis

Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MAT-LAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/(Mentaschi et al., 2016).

A non-enteric adenovirus A12 gastroenteritis outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

A gastroenteritis outbreak that occurred in 2013 in a low-income community in Rio de Janeiro was investigated for the presence of enteric viruses, including species A rotavirus (RVA), norovirus (NoV), astrovirus (HAstV), bocavirus (HBoV), aichivirus (AiV), and adenovirus (HAdV). Five of nine stool samples (83%) from patients were positive for HAdV, and no other enteric viruses were detected. Polymerase chain reaction products were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis, which revealed four strains and one strain of non-enteric HAdV-A12 and HAdV-F41, respectively. The HAdV-A12 nucleotide sequences shared 100% nucleotide similarity. Viral load was assessed using a TaqMan real-time PCR assay. Stool samples that were positive for HAdV-A12 had high viral loads (mean 1.9 X 107 DNA copies/g stool). All four patients with HAdV-A12 were < 25 months of age and had symptoms of fever and diarrhoea. Evaluation of enteric virus outbreaks allows the characterisation of novel or unique diarrhoea-associated viruses in regions where RVA vaccination is routinely performed.

Some misspecfication problems in long-memory time series models

Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics

Injuries of non-lethal child physical abuse to the crania and orofacial regions: a scientific review

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Improvements in Hardware Transactional Memory for GPU Architectures

In the multi-core CPU world, transactional memory (TM)has emerged as an alternative to lock-based programming for thread synchronization. Recent research proposes the use of TM in GPU architectures, where a high number of computing threads, organized in SIMT fashion, requires an effective synchronization method. In contrast to CPUs, GPUs offer two memory spaces: global memory and local memory. The local memory space serves as a shared scratch-pad for a subset of the computing threads, and it is used by programmers to speed-up their applications thanks to its low latency. Prior work from the authors proposed a lightweight hardware TM (HTM) support based in the local memory, modifying the SIMT execution model and adding a conflict detection mechanism. An efficient implementation of these features is key in order to provide an effective synchronization mechanism at the local memory level. After a quick description of the main features of our HTM design for GPU local memory, in this work we gather together a number of proposals designed with the aim of improving those mechanisms with high impact on performance. Firstly, the SIMT execution model is modified to increase the parallelism of the application when transactions must be serialized in order to make forward progress. Secondly, the conflict detection mechanism is optimized depending on application characteristics, such us the read/write sets, the probability of conflict between transactions and the existence of read-only transactions. As these features can be present in hardware simultaneously, it is a task of the compiler and runtime to determine which ones are more important for a given application. This work includes a discussion on the analysis to be done in order to choose the best configuration solution.

«Imagine, c’est le socialisme et personne ne s’en va» : l’intelligentsia littéraire est-allemande et la chute du mur de Berlin

En 1989, la Pologne, la Hongrie, la Tchécoslovaquie et la République démocratique allemande (RDA) furent secouées par des mouvements de protestations qui précipitèrent la dissolution de leur régime communiste. Il est souvent admis, dans l’historiographie comme dans la mémoire populaire, que les intellectuels, dont plusieurs écrivains, ont joué un rôle déterminant lors de ces bouleversements. Or, l’analyse de la révolution en Allemagne de l’Est et des prises de position de son intelligentsia littéraire démontre qu’une telle conclusion s’applique mal à cet État : les auteurs phares de la RDA, qui se sont pourtant présentés pendant et après la révolution comme des victimes et des opposants au régime, n’ont jamais partagé les revendications anticommunistes de leurs concitoyens et ont conservé un discours socialiste. Ce mémoire entend expliquer cette réaction particulière des écrivains les mieux établis de l’Allemagne de l’Est – soit Christa Wolf, Heiner Müller, Stefan Heym, Volker Braun et Christoph Hein. En étudiant leurs textes non fictifs et en analysant la relation qu’ils entretenaient avec le régime, la population et l’idéologie promue en RDA, nous démontrerons que ces auteurs avaient développé, avant l’ouverture du mur de Berlin, une stratégie d’action alliant loyauté socialiste et critique de l’autoritarisme, ce qui leur avait permis de cumuler un important capital social et culturel. À l’automne 1989 et lors du processus de réunification allemande, l’intelligentsia littéraire a en fait agi en fonction de cette même stratégie ; celle-ci, toutefois, n’était pas adaptée aux nouvelles conditions sociales.

Anomalies immunitaires chez les enfants exposés au VIH mais non infectés.

La thérapie antirétrovirale prévient la transmission mère-enfant du VIH dans plus de 98% des cas lorsqu’administrée pendant la grossesse, le travail et au nouveau-né. L’accessibilité à la thérapie antirétrovirale dans près de 70% des 1,5 millions cas de grossesses VIH+ dans le monde mène à la naissance de plus d’un million d’enfants exposés non infectés chaque année. Le nombre d’enfants exposés non infectés est à la hausse ainsi que les préoccupations concernant leur santé. En effet, plusieurs groupes ont signalé une augmentation de la morbidité et de la mortalité chez les enfants exposés non infectés. L’analyse des données rétrospectives de 705 enfants exposés non infectés de la cohorte mère-enfant du CMIS a révélé qu’à 2 mois d’âge, les enfants nés de mères ayant une charge virale supérieure à 1,000 copies d’ARN / ml avaient une fréquence de lymphocytes B significativement plus élevés par rapport aux enfants exposés non infectés nés de mères ayant une charge virale indétectable. L’objectif de cette étude est de caractériser ces anomalies. Les lymphocytes, provenant du sang de cordon ombilical et de sang veineux obtenu à 6 et 12 mois d’âge, ont été phénotypés par cytométrie en flux à l’aide des marqueurs CD3 / CD10 / CD14 / CD16 / CD19 / CD20 / CD21 / CD27 / IgM pour les lymphocytes B et CD4 / CD8 / CD3 / CCR7 / CD45RA pour les lymphocytes T. De plus, afin d’étudier les capacités fonctionnelles des lymphocytes B CD19+, la réponse antigène-spécifique au vaccin antitétanique a été mesurée par marquage avec des tétramères fluorescents de fragment C du toxoïde tétanique. Nos travaux ont mis en évidence des différences statistiquement significatives entre les enfants exposés non-infectés (ENI) nés de mères avec une charge virale détectable comparativement à ceux nés de mères avec une charge virale indétectable. À la naissance, les enfants ENI nés de mères avec une charge virale détectable avaient significativement moins de lymphocytes B totaux, plus de lymphocytes B mémoires classiques, activés, plasmablastes et lymphocytes T CD8+ mémoires centrales. À 6 mois, ils avaient significativement plus de lymphocytes B naïfs et significativement moins de lymphocytes T CD8+ effecteurs mémoires. À 12 mois d’âge, ils avaient significativement plus de lymphocytes B et T CD8+ totaux; significativement moins de lymphocytes T CD4+ totaux et leurs lymphocytes T affichaient un profil significativement plus activé (plus de cellules mémoires). L’analyse de la réponse antigène-spécifique a révélé une fréquence plus élevé de lymphocytes B mémoires IgM+ suggérant que les enfants nés de mères avec une virémie détectable ont plus de mal à établir une mémoire immunitaire efficace face au vaccin antitétanique. Nos données suggèrent qu’il y a exposition durant le premier trimestre de grossesse à la virémie maternelle et que cette exposition impacte le système immunitaire en développement du fœtus. Les mécanismes sous-jacents causant ces anomalies doivent encore être élucidés et l’épuisement du compartiment T à la naissance et à 6 mois reste à être investigué. Dans un pays industrialisé où l’accès aux soins est facilité, ces anomalies ont des conséquences modérées mais dans des pays à faible et moyen revenu, les conséquences peuvent être beaucoup plus tragiques voir fatales.

STATE OF CHARGE BALANCING DROOP CONTROL

This thesis presents a load sharing method applied in a distributed micro grid system. The goal of this method is to balance the state-of-charge (SoC) of each parallel connected battery and make it possible to detect the average SoC of the system by measuring bus voltage for all connected modules. In this method the reference voltage for each battery converter is adjusted by adding a proportional SoC factor. Under such setting the battery with a higher SoC will output more power, whereas the one with lower SoC gives out less. Therefore the higher SoC battery will use its energy faster than the lower ones, and eventually the SoC and output power of each battery will converge. And because the reference voltage is related to SoC status, the information of the average SoC in this system could be shared for all modules by measuring bus voltage. The SoC balancing speed is related to the SoC droop factors. This SoC-based load sharing control system is analyzed in feasibility and stability. Simulations in MATLAB/Simulink are presented, which indicate that this control scheme could balance the battery SoCs as predicted. The observation of SoC sharing through bus voltage was validated in both software simulation and hardware experiments. It could be of use to non-communicated distributed power system in load shedding and power planning.

Can Intersensory Redundancy and Social Contingency Enhance Memory in Bobwhite Quail Hatchlings?

Recent findings indicate that bimodal-redundant stimulation promotes perceptual learning and recruits attention to amodal properties in non-human as well as human infants. However it is not clear if bimodal-redundant stimulation can also facilitate memory during the postnatal period. Moreover, most animal and human studies have employed an operant paradigm to study memory, but have not compared the effectiveness of contingent versus passive presentation of information on memory. The current study investigated the role of unimodal versus bimodal presentation and, the role of a contingent versus passive exposure in memory retention in the bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus). Results revealed that contingently trained chicks demonstrated a preference for the familiarized call under both unimodal and bimodal conditions. Between-group analyses revealed that the contingent-bimodal group preferred the familiarized call as compared to the passive-bimodal group. These results indicate that the contingency paradigm accompanied with the bimodal stimulus type facilitated memory during early development.

Hybrid Power System Intelligent Operation and Protection Involving Distributed Architectures and Pulsed Loads

Efficient and reliable techniques for power delivery and utilization are needed to account for the increased penetration of renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such methods are also required for current and future demands of plug-in electric vehicles and high-power electronic loads. Distributed control and optimal power network architectures will lead to viable solutions to the energy management issue with high level of reliability and security. This dissertation is aimed at developing and verifying new techniques for distributed control by deploying DC microgrids, involving distributed renewable generation and energy storage, through the operating AC power system. To achieve the findings of this dissertation, an energy system architecture was developed involving AC and DC networks, both with distributed generations and demands. The various components of the DC microgrid were designed and built including DC-DC converters, voltage source inverters (VSI) and AC-DC rectifiers featuring novel designs developed by the candidate. New control techniques were developed and implemented to maximize the operating range of the power conditioning units used for integrating renewable energy into the DC bus. The control and operation of the DC microgrids in the hybrid AC/DC system involve intelligent energy management. Real-time energy management algorithms were developed and experimentally verified. These algorithms are based on intelligent decision-making elements along with an optimization process. This was aimed at enhancing the overall performance of the power system and mitigating the effect of heavy non-linear loads with variable intensity and duration. The developed algorithms were also used for managing the charging/discharging process of plug-in electric vehicle emulators. The protection of the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system was studied. Fault analysis and protection scheme and coordination, in addition to ideas on how to retrofit currently available protection concepts and devices for AC systems in a DC network, were presented. A study was also conducted on the effect of changing the distribution architecture and distributing the storage assets on the various zones of the network on the system’s dynamic security and stability. A practical shipboard power system was studied as an example of a hybrid AC/DC power system involving pulsed loads. Generally, the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system, besides most of the ideas, controls and algorithms presented in this dissertation, were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed, Energy Systems Research Laboratory. All the developments in this dissertation were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed.

Exploring Hidden Coherent Feature Groups and Temporal Semantics for Multimedia Big Data Analysis

Thanks to the advanced technologies and social networks that allow the data to be widely shared among the Internet, there is an explosion of pervasive multimedia data, generating high demands of multimedia services and applications in various areas for people to easily access and manage multimedia data. Towards such demands, multimedia big data analysis has become an emerging hot topic in both industry and academia, which ranges from basic infrastructure, management, search, and mining to security, privacy, and applications. Within the scope of this dissertation, a multimedia big data analysis framework is proposed for semantic information management and retrieval with a focus on rare event detection in videos. The proposed framework is able to explore hidden semantic feature groups in multimedia data and incorporate temporal semantics, especially for video event detection. First, a hierarchical semantic data representation is presented to alleviate the semantic gap issue, and the Hidden Coherent Feature Group (HCFG) analysis method is proposed to capture the correlation between features and separate the original feature set into semantic groups, seamlessly integrating multimedia data in multiple modalities. Next, an Importance Factor based Temporal Multiple Correspondence Analysis (i.e., IF-TMCA) approach is presented for effective event detection. Specifically, the HCFG algorithm is integrated with the Hierarchical Information Gain Analysis (HIGA) method to generate the Importance Factor (IF) for producing the initial detection results. Then, the TMCA algorithm is proposed to efficiently incorporate temporal semantics for re-ranking and improving the final performance. At last, a sampling-based ensemble learning mechanism is applied to further accommodate the imbalanced datasets. In addition to the multimedia semantic representation and class imbalance problems, lack of organization is another critical issue for multimedia big data analysis. In this framework, an affinity propagation-based summarization method is also proposed to transform the unorganized data into a better structure with clean and well-organized information. The whole framework has been thoroughly evaluated across multiple domains, such as soccer goal event detection and disaster information management.

Temporal solitonic crystals and non-Hermitian informational lattices

Clusters of temporal optical solitons—stable self-localized light pulses preserving their form during propagation—exhibit properties characteristic of that encountered in crystals. Here, we introduce the concept of temporal solitonic information crystals formed by the lattices of optical pulses with variable phases. The proposed general idea offers new approaches to optical coherent transmission technology and can be generalized to dispersion-managed and dissipative solitons as well as scaled to a variety of physical platforms from fiber optics to silicon chips. We discuss the key properties of such dynamic temporal crystals that mathematically correspond to non-Hermitian lattices and examine the types of collective mode instabilities determining the lifetime of the soliton train. This transfer of techniques and concepts from solid state physics to information theory promises a new outlook on information storage and transmission.

Adaptive edge analytics for distributed networked control of water systems

Over the last decade, there has been a trend where water utility companies aim to make water distribution networks more intelligent in order to improve their quality of service, reduce water waste, minimize maintenance costs etc., by incorporating IoT technologies. Current state of the art solutions use expensive power hungry deployments to monitor and transmit water network states periodically in order to detect anomalous behaviors such as water leakage and bursts. However, more than 97% of water network assets are remote away from power and are often in geographically remote underpopulated areas, facts that make current approaches unsuitable for next generation more dynamic adaptive water networks. Battery-driven wireless sensor/actuator based solutions are theoretically the perfect choice to support next generation water distribution. In this paper, we present an end-to-end water leak localization system, which exploits edge processing and enables the use of battery-driven sensor nodes. Our system combines a lightweight edge anomaly detection algorithm based on compression rates and an efficient localization algorithm based on graph theory. The edge anomaly detection and localization elements of the systems produce a timely and accurate localization result and reduce the communication by 99% compared to the traditional periodic communication. We evaluated our schemes by deploying non-intrusive sensors measuring vibrational data on a real-world water test rig that have had controlled leakage and burst scenarios implemented.

«Imagine, c’est le socialisme et personne ne s’en va» : l’intelligentsia littéraire est-allemande et la chute du mur de Berlin

En 1989, la Pologne, la Hongrie, la Tchécoslovaquie et la République démocratique allemande (RDA) furent secouées par des mouvements de protestations qui précipitèrent la dissolution de leur régime communiste. Il est souvent admis, dans l’historiographie comme dans la mémoire populaire, que les intellectuels, dont plusieurs écrivains, ont joué un rôle déterminant lors de ces bouleversements. Or, l’analyse de la révolution en Allemagne de l’Est et des prises de position de son intelligentsia littéraire démontre qu’une telle conclusion s’applique mal à cet État : les auteurs phares de la RDA, qui se sont pourtant présentés pendant et après la révolution comme des victimes et des opposants au régime, n’ont jamais partagé les revendications anticommunistes de leurs concitoyens et ont conservé un discours socialiste. Ce mémoire entend expliquer cette réaction particulière des écrivains les mieux établis de l’Allemagne de l’Est – soit Christa Wolf, Heiner Müller, Stefan Heym, Volker Braun et Christoph Hein. En étudiant leurs textes non fictifs et en analysant la relation qu’ils entretenaient avec le régime, la population et l’idéologie promue en RDA, nous démontrerons que ces auteurs avaient développé, avant l’ouverture du mur de Berlin, une stratégie d’action alliant loyauté socialiste et critique de l’autoritarisme, ce qui leur avait permis de cumuler un important capital social et culturel. À l’automne 1989 et lors du processus de réunification allemande, l’intelligentsia littéraire a en fait agi en fonction de cette même stratégie ; celle-ci, toutefois, n’était pas adaptée aux nouvelles conditions sociales.

Anomalies immunitaires chez les enfants exposés au VIH mais non infectés

La thérapie antirétrovirale prévient la transmission mère-enfant du VIH dans plus de 98% des cas lorsqu’administrée pendant la grossesse, le travail et au nouveau-né. L’accessibilité à la thérapie antirétrovirale dans près de 70% des 1,5 millions cas de grossesses VIH+ dans le monde mène à la naissance de plus d’un million d’enfants exposés non infectés chaque année. Le nombre d’enfants exposés non infectés est à la hausse ainsi que les préoccupations concernant leur santé. En effet, plusieurs groupes ont signalé une augmentation de la morbidité et de la mortalité chez les enfants exposés non infectés. L’analyse des données rétrospectives de 705 enfants exposés non infectés de la cohorte mère-enfant du CMIS a révélé qu’à 2 mois d’âge, les enfants nés de mères ayant une charge virale supérieure à 1,000 copies d’ARN / ml avaient une fréquence de lymphocytes B significativement plus élevés par rapport aux enfants exposés non infectés nés de mères ayant une charge virale indétectable. L’objectif de cette étude est de caractériser ces anomalies. Les lymphocytes, provenant du sang de cordon ombilical et de sang veineux obtenu à 6 et 12 mois d’âge, ont été phénotypés par cytométrie en flux à l’aide des marqueurs CD3 / CD10 / CD14 / CD16 / CD19 / CD20 / CD21 / CD27 / IgM pour les lymphocytes B et CD4 / CD8 / CD3 / CCR7 / CD45RA pour les lymphocytes T. De plus, afin d’étudier les capacités fonctionnelles des lymphocytes B CD19+, la réponse antigène-spécifique au vaccin antitétanique a été mesurée par marquage avec des tétramères fluorescents de fragment C du toxoïde tétanique. Nos travaux ont mis en évidence des différences statistiquement significatives entre les enfants exposés non-infectés (ENI) nés de mères avec une charge virale détectable comparativement à ceux nés de mères avec une charge virale indétectable. À la naissance, les enfants ENI nés de mères avec une charge virale détectable avaient significativement moins de lymphocytes B totaux, plus de lymphocytes B mémoires classiques, activés, plasmablastes et lymphocytes T CD8+ mémoires centrales. À 6 mois, ils avaient significativement plus de lymphocytes B naïfs et significativement moins de lymphocytes T CD8+ effecteurs mémoires. À 12 mois d’âge, ils avaient significativement plus de lymphocytes B et T CD8+ totaux; significativement moins de lymphocytes T CD4+ totaux et leurs lymphocytes T affichaient un profil significativement plus activé (plus de cellules mémoires). L’analyse de la réponse antigène-spécifique a révélé une fréquence plus élevé de lymphocytes B mémoires IgM+ suggérant que les enfants nés de mères avec une virémie détectable ont plus de mal à établir une mémoire immunitaire efficace face au vaccin antitétanique. Nos données suggèrent qu’il y a exposition durant le premier trimestre de grossesse à la virémie maternelle et que cette exposition impacte le système immunitaire en développement du fœtus. Les mécanismes sous-jacents causant ces anomalies doivent encore être élucidés et l’épuisement du compartiment T à la naissance et à 6 mois reste à être investigué. Dans un pays industrialisé où l’accès aux soins est facilité, ces anomalies ont des conséquences modérées mais dans des pays à faible et moyen revenu, les conséquences peuvent être beaucoup plus tragiques voir fatales.