Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scheduling tools to reduce the cost of cane railway transport

Cane railway systems provide empty bins for harvesters to fill and full bins of cane for the factory to process. These operations need to be conducted in a timely fashion to minimise delays to harvesters and the factory and to minimise the cut-to-crush delay, while also minimising the cost of providing this service. A range of tools has been provided over the years to assist in this process. This paper reviews the objectives of the cane transport system and the tools available to achieve those objectives. The facilities within these tools to assist in the control of costs are highlighted.

A systematic design of high-rate full-diversity space-frequency codes for MIMO-OFDM systems

This paper presents a systematic construction of high-rate and full-diversity space-frequency block codes for MIMO-OFDM systems. While all prior constructions offer only a maximum rate of one complex symbol per channel use, our construction yields rate equal to the number of transmit antennas and simultaneously achieves full-diversity. The proposed construction works for arbitrary number of transmit antennas and arbitrary channel power delay profile. A key step in this construction is the generalization of the stacked matrix code design criteria given by Bolcskei et.al., (IEEE WCNC 2000). Explicit equivalence of our generalized code design criteria with the Hadamard-product based criteria of W. Su et.al., (lEEE Trans. Sig. Proc. Nov 2003) is established and new high-rate codes are constructed using our criteria.

Delay optimal control algorithm for a multiaccess fading channel with peak power constraint

We consider an optimal power and rate scheduling problem for a multiaccess fading wireless channel with the objective of minimising a weighted sum of mean packet transmission delay subject to a peak power constraint. The base station acts as a controller which, depending upon the buffer lengths and the channel state of each user, allocates transmission rate and power to individual users. We assume perfect channel state information at the transmitter and the receiver. We also assume a Markov model for the fading and packet arrival processes. The policy obtained represents a form of Indexability.

A four-timescale algorithm for constrained stochastic optimization of RED

The overall performance of random early detection (RED) routers in the Internet is determined by the settings of their associated parameters. The non-availability of a functional relationship between the RED performance and its parameters makes it difficult to implement optimization techniques directly in order to optimize the RED parameters. In this paper, we formulate a generic optimization framework using a stochastically bounded delay metric to dynamically adapt the RED parameters. The constrained optimization problem thus formulated is solved using traditional nonlinear programming techniques. Here, we implement the barrier and penalty function approaches, respectively. We adopt a second-order nonlinear optimization framework and propose a novel four-timescale stochastic approximation algorithm to estimate the gradient and Hessian of the barrier and penalty objectives and update the RED parameters. A convergence analysis of the proposed algorithm is briefly sketched. We perform simulations to evaluate the performance of our algorithm with both barrier and penalty objectives and compare these with RED and a variant of it in the literature. We observe an improvement in performance using our proposed algorithm over RED, and the above variant of it.

New Evidence on the Properties of the Financial Statement Information Pricing Process

This study contributes to our knowledge of how information contained in financial statements is interpreted and priced by the stock market in two aspects. First, the empirical findings indicate that investors interpret some of the information contained in new financial statements in the context of the information of prior financial statements. Second, two central hypotheses offered in earlier literature to explain the significant connection between publicly available financial statement information and future abnormal returns, that the signals proxy for risk and that the information is priced with a delay, are evaluated utilizing a new methodology. It is found that the mentioned significant connection for some financial statement signals can be explained by that the signals proxy for risk and for other financial statement signals by that the information contained in the signals is priced with a delay.

On the maximal rate of (n+1) x n and (n+2) x n complex orthogonal designs

For p x n complex orthogonal designs in k variables, where p is the number of channels uses and n is the number of transmit antennas, the maximal rate L of the design is asymptotically half as n increases. But, for such maximal rate codes, the decoding delay p increases exponentially. To control the delay, if we put the restriction that p = n, i.e., consider only the square designs, then, the rate decreases exponentially as n increases. This necessitates the study of the maximal rate of the designs with restrictions of the form p = n+1, p = n+2, p = n+3 etc. In this paper, we study the maximal rate of complex orthogonal designs with the restrictions p = n+1 and p = n+2. We derive upper and lower bounds for the maximal rate for p = n+1 and p = n+2. Also for the case of p = n+1, we show that if the orthogonal design admit only the variables, their negatives and multiples of these by root-1 and zeros as the entries of the matrix (other complex linear combinations are not allowed), then the maximal rate always equals the lower bound.

An analytical model for capacity evaluation of VoIP on HCCA and TCP file transfers over EDCA in an IEEE 802.11e WLAN

In the context of the IEEE 802.11e standard for WLANs, we provide an analytical model for obtaining the maximum number of VoIP calls that can be supported on HCCA, such that the delay QoS constraint of the accepted calls is met, when TCP downloads are coexistent on EDCA. In this scenario, we derive the TCP download throughput by using an analytical model for the case where only TCP sessions are present in the WLAN. We show that the analytical model for combined voice and TCP transfers provides accurate results in comparison with simulations (using ns-2).

Analysis of network architectures for zigbee sensor clusters

We provide a comparative performance analysis of network architectures for beacon enabled Zigbee sensor clusters using the CSMA/CA MAC defined in the IEEE 802.15.4 standard, and organised as (i) a star topology, and (ii) a two-hop topology. We provide analytical models for obtaining performance measures such as mean network delay, and mean node lifetime. We find that the star topology is substantially superior both in delay performance and lifetime performance than the two-hop topology.

Simple equidistant firing delay scheme for 3-phi thyristor converters

A simple firing delay circuit for 3-φ fully controlled bridge using a phase locked loop is described. The circuit uses very few components and is an improved scheme over the existing methods. The use of this circuit in three-phase thyristor converters and 'circulating current free' mode dual converters is described.

Multiple support excitations of open-plane frames by a filtered white noise and soil-structure interaction

Seismic structural design is essentially the estimation of structural response to a forced motion, which may be deterministic or stochastic, imposed on the ground. The assumption that the same ground motion acts at every point of the base of the structure (or at every support) is not always justifiable; particularly in case of very large structures when considerable spatial variability in ground motion can exist over significant distances example long span bridges. This variability is partly due to the delay in arrival of the excitation at different supports (which is called the wave passage effect) and due to heterogeneity in the ground medium which results in incoherency and local effects. The current study examines the influence of the wave passage effect (in terms of delay in arrival of horizontal ground excitation at different supports and neglecting transmission through the structure) on the response of a few open-plane frame building structures with soil-structure interaction. The ground acceleration has been modeled by a suitably filtered white noise. As a special case, the ground excitation at different supports has also been treated as statistically independent to model the extreme case of incoherence due to local effects and due to modifications to the ground motion resulting from wave reflections and refractions in heterogeneous soil media. The results indicate that, even for relatively short spanned building frames, wave passage effect can be significant. In the absence of soil-structure interaction, it can significantly increase the root mean square (rms) value of the shear in extreme end columns for the stiffer frames but has negligible effect on the flexible frames when total displacements are considered. It is seen that pseudo-static displacements increasingly contribute to the rms value of column shear as the time delay increases both for the stiffer and for the more flexible frames. When soil-structure interaction is considered, wave passage effect (in terms of total displacements) is significant only for low soil shear modulus, G. values (where soil-structure interaction significantly lowers the fundamental frequency) and for stiff frames. The contribution of pseudo-static displacement to these rms values is found to decrease with increase in G. In general, wave passage effect for most interactive frames is insignificant compared to the attenuating effect a decrease in G, has on the response of the interactive structure to uniform support excitation. When the excitations at different supports are statistically independent, it is seen that for both the stiff and flexible frames, the rms value of the column shear in extreme end columns is several times larger (more for the stiffer frames) than the value corresponding to uniform base excitation with the pseudo-static displacements contributing over 99% of the rms value of column shear. Soil-structure interaction has an attenuating effect on the rms value of the column shear, the effect decreasing with increase in G,. Here too, the pseudo-static displacements contribute very largely to the column shear. The influence of the wave passage effect on the response of three 2-bay frames with and without soil-structure interaction to a recorded horizontal accelerogram is also examined. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical Aspects of the Synergistic Hypergolic Ignition in Hybrid Systems with N2O4 as Oxidizer

Synergistic hypergolic ignition with nitrogen tetroxide ( N2O4) as oxidizer has been observed in hybrid systems comprising of a mixture of magnesium and Schiff bases as fuels. The ignition delays (IDs) measured using a modified device, have been compared with those of magnesium-Schiff base-WFNA systems under identical conditions. The ID has been found to vary with the nature of the substitution in both the benzene rings. A linear relationship emerges when the ignition delays are plotted against the Hammett substitution constants (σ). The preignition products of the reaction of N2O4 with magnesium and benzylidineaniline have been analysed to be Mg(NO3)2, benzenediazonium salt and benzaldehyde. Based on the preignition products isolated, a probable reaction mechanism has been proposed. The previously proposed preignition mechanism for the Schiff base-magnesium-WFNA system has been further supported from the present ignition delay data.

Systems Analysis of Tank Irrigation: II. Delayed Start and Water Deficit

Tank irrigation systems in the semiarid regions of India are discussed in this paper. To optimize the grain yield of rice, it is essential to start the agricultural operations in the second week of July so that favorable climatic conditions will prevail during flowering and yield formation stages. Because of low inflow during the initial few weeks of the crop season, often farmers are forced to delay planting until sufficient sowing rain and inflow have occurred or to adopt deficit irrigation during this period. The delayed start affects the grain yield, but will lead to an improved irrigation efficiency. A delayed start of agricultural operations with increased irrigation efficiency leads to the energy resources becoming critical during the peak requirement week, particularly those of female labor and animal power. This necessitates augmenting these resources during weeks of their peak use, either by reorganizing the traditional methods of cultivation or by importing from outside the system.

Energy dispersive backscattering of electrons from surface resonances of a disordered medium and 1/f noise

Anderson localised states in the bulk of a disordered medium appear as sharp resonances near the surface. The resonant backscattering leads to an energy-dependent random time delay for an incident electron. We derive an analytic expression for the delay-time probability distribution at a given energy. This is shown to give a 1/f noise for the surface currents in general.