Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Avaliação de projetos sociais: análise da metodologia utilizada pela petrobrás

On the aggravation of social problems and the shortage of resources, the improvement of evaluation methods and control of its application, requiring more efficiency, efficacy, effectiveness and participation in its management, has been growing. As a result, emerges the importance of studying and developing such methodologies. The overall goal of this dissertation is to know what are the difficults to incorporate the point of view of executers and beneficiaries in evaluation process. To do so, has been done a research characterized as qualitative, with a field strategy using the case study of two social projects called Petrobras Child Program, situated in the metropolitan region of Natal, and Content Analysis technique for analyze the data. The conclusions of this work can assist in improving the process of projects evaluation financed by Petrobras, contributing with its social role, besides the possibility of encouraging a greater participation of other society actors, such as beneficiaries, in the evaluation process

Processo de formulação estratégica sob a perspectiva dos decisores da CAERN

Os estudos sobre estratégia têm se difundido há muitos anos e seu processo de formulação também está inserido no cotidiano dos gestores. O objetivo do presente trabalho é constatar se há relação entre o pensamento, formulação e mudança estratégica e o nível acadêmico, hierárquico e tempo no cargo dos decisores da CAERN. A abordagem teórica é realizada com os seguintes pontos: estratégia, Decisão e liderança organizacional e o processo de formação da estratégia (Pensamento estratégico; Formulação da estratégia; Mudança estratégica). O estudo é de caráter exploratório descritivo. Para a tabulação e análise dos dados, utilizou-se um programa estatístico em que foi adotada a técnica de análise fatorial, e verificou-se a confiabilidade da escala de Likert utilizada no questionário através do teste Alfa de Cronbach e análise de Spearman a fim de constatar a correlação das variáveis e proporcionar uma abordagem quantitativa à pesquisa. Todos os respondentes da pesquisa são tomadores de decisão cujos níveis hierárquicos que obtiveram representatividade na amostra foram coordenadores, gerentes e chefes de seção. A partir das análises dos resultados do estudo, constatou-se que, das hipóteses levantadas, apenas uma se mostrou coerente com a realidade dos profissionais responsáveis pela estratégia organizacional da empresa: Há correlação entre a formulação estratégica e o nível acadêmico dos decisores (no constructo de formulação deliberada). Notouse também que o nível de formação acadêmica (nível superior) é importante e influencia diretamente no processo da formulação estratégica. Conclui-se que na organização em estudo o conhecimento dos gestores interfere na formulação estratégica

Tangibilidade, classe de ativos e estrutura de capital das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

This study aims to investigate the influence of the asset class and the breakdown of tangibility as determinant factors of the capital structure of companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in the period of 2008-2012. Two current assets classes were composed and once they were grouped by liquidity, they were also analyzed by the financial institutions for credit granting: current resources (Cash, Bank and Financial Applications) and operations with duplicates (Stocks and Receivables). The breakdown of the tangible assets was made based on its main components provided as warrantees for loans like Machinery & Equipment and Land & Buildings. For an analysis extension, three metrics for leverage (accounting, financial and market) were applied and the sample was divided into economic sectors, adopted by BM&FBOVESPA. The data model in dynamic panel estimated by a systemic GMM of two levels was used in this study due its strength to problems of endogenous relationship as well as the omitted variables bias. The found results suggest that current resources are determinants of the capital structure possibly because they re characterized as proxies for financial solvency, being its relationship with debt positive. The sectorial analysis confirmed the results for current resources. The tangibility of assets has inverse proportional relationship with the leverage. As it is disintegrated in its main components, the significant and negative influence of machinery & equipment was more marked in the Industrial Goods sector. This result shows that, on average, the most specific assets from operating activities of a company compete for a less use of third party resources. As complementary results, it was observed that the leverage has persistence, which is linked with the static trade-off theory. Specifically for financial leverage, it was observed that the persistence is relevant when it is controlled for the lagged current assets classes variables. The proxy variable for growth opportunities, measured by the Market -to -Book, has the sign of its contradictory coefficient. The company size has a positive relationship with debt, in favor of static trade-off theory. Profitability is the most consistent variable in all the performed estimations, showing strong negative and significant relationship with leverage, as the pecking order theory predicts

Povoações, freguesias e vilas na Paraíba Colonial: Pombal e Sousa, 1697-1800

The towns presently named Pombal and Sousa, located in the hinterland of the State of Paraíba, Brazil, still keep vestiges of the colonization process they went through along the 18th and 19th centuries, when they both emerged as settlement nuclei in the extreme West of the then captaincy of Paraíba and attained the status of freguesia and vila in a later period. This research aims to comprehend the process of urban formation and development of the colonial urban nuclei of Pombal and Sousa as they became povoados (hamlets), freguesias (parishes) and vilas (small urban communities with a local government), according to territorial expansion policies implemented by the Portuguese government from 1697 to 1800. The choice of the two urban settlements for this survey lies in the fact that they were part of the great conquest and colonization program undertaken by the Portuguese Crown. Another aspect that was considered was the fact that those towns are the oldest urban nuclei of Paraíba s hinterland. They came into being as early as in the times of the colony, thus producing a favorable environment to the study of the changes that occurred in the captaincy s hinterland scenery resulting from the process of formation and development of the colonial urban space. Three fundamental categories of analysis were defined since they have a direct bearing upon the urban configuration of the two colonization nuclei: povoado, freguesia and vila. The three of them are related to civil and ecclesiastic jurisdictions. Field, documentation and bibliography surveys were undertaken in order to develop the study. They allowed for the finding of vestiges of the old, colonial urban structures and for the development of theoretical analysis based on present-day studies of issues relating to the colonial urban history. The study purposes were, therefore, to try to understand how the old urban nuclei of Pombal and Sousa fit in the territorial expansion policies undertaken by the Portuguese government; to relate the process of urban formation and development of such nuclei with the categories of analysis povoação-freguesia-vila by discussing the relations and influences they exert over one another and their territory, as well as to unveil, as much as possible, the configuration the urban spaces that were shaped along the 18th century

Muitas histórias, uma imagem: a percepção sócio-ambiental de alunos residentes da Escola Agrícola de Jundiaí

Tendo como base os conceitos de espaço, lugar, ambiente e imagem, sob as vertentes da Arquitetura e Urbanismo, Geografia e Psicologia Ambiental, esta pesquisa teve como objetivo averiguar a percepção de estudantes da Escola Agrícola de Jundiaí (EAJ UFRN) a fim de identificar aspectos das interrelações pessoa-ambiente que diferenciam tal escola de outras instituições. A coleta de dados utilizou multimétodos e investigou um grupo de alunos residentes na Escola que cursavam o ensino médio e técnico em agropecuária em 2006, analisando seus discursos, comportamentos e atitudes de modo a identificar os principais elementos da imagem sócio-ambiental da EAJ. Os resultados apontaram locais, práticas sociais e símbolos representativos da instituição, indicando espaços (construídos e naturais) adequados/inadequados às necessidades/expectativas dos estudantes incluindo a ampliação da interdisciplinaridade no conjunto de suas atividades. Além disso, a fim de incrementar a análise sócio-ambiental em instituições que promovem experiências exitosas, recomenda-se que os aspectos cotidiano e tempo sejam mais profundamente investigados em estudos futuros na área

Modos projetuais de simulação: uso de ferramentas de simulação térmica no processo projetual de arquitetura

This thesis aims to describe and demonstrate the developed concept to facilitate the use of thermal simulation tools during the building design process. Despite the impact of architectural elements on the performance of buildings, some influential decisions are frequently based solely on qualitative information. Even though such design support is adequate for most decisions, the designer will eventually have doubts concerning the performance of some design decisions. These situations will require some kind of additional knowledge to be properly approached. The concept of designerly ways of simulating focuses on the formulation and solution of design dilemmas, which are doubts about the design that cannot be fully understood nor solved without using quantitative information. The concept intends to combine the power of analysis from computer simulation tools with the capacity of synthesis from architects. Three types of simulation tools are considered: solar analysis, thermal/energy simulation and CFD. Design dilemmas are formulated and framed according to the architect s reflection process about performance aspects. Throughout the thesis, the problem is investigated in three fields: professional, technical and theoretical fields. This approach on distinct parts of the problem aimed to i) characterize different professional categories with regards to their design practice and use of tools, ii) investigate preceding researchers on the use of simulation tools and iii) draw analogies between the proposed concept, and some concepts developed or described in previous works about design theory. The proposed concept was tested in eight design dilemmas extracted from three case studies in the Netherlands. The three investigated processes are houses designed by Dutch architectural firms. Relevant information and criteria from each case study were obtained through interviews and conversations with the involved architects. The practical application, despite its success in the research context, allowed the identification of some applicability limitations of the concept, concerning the architects need to have technical knowledge and the actual evolution stage of simulation tools

"O que é que há? O que é que está se passando" nessas cabeças? : um estudo sobre a concepção de projetos recentes da arquitetura residencial unifamiliar em Natal

L étude se fonde sur la recherche du processus inhérent à la conception du projet par le biais de l approche architecturologique proposée par Philippe Boudon et al (2000) ; un modèle théorique qui sert de fondement à la construction d une connaissance de l architecture au moyen d une étude de la nature des opérations mentales de chaque architecte lorsqu il organise son travail de conception. La modélisation de l architecturologie concentre son étude sur le travail qui a lieu avant même la confection matérielle du projet (représentation graphique finale). De cette façon, douze projets furent analysés d architecture résidencielle unifamiliale; conçus récemment par six architectes « potiguares » pour Natal et sa région périphérique. Les résultats mettent en évidence un ensemble de modèles substrats (comme point de départ) et téléologiques (comme point d arrivée) adoptés par les auteurs au cours de la conception de leurs projets. Ces modèles, de façon générale, sont liés aux pertinences socio-culturelles (conventions, formes traditionnelles ou coutumes) du contexte pour lesquels ils sont conçus (lotissements privés de co-propriété des classes moyennes et moyennes-supérieures) et en même temps, ils sont le fruit de croyances, d idéologies et d expériences antérieures propres à l espace de la conception de chaque architecte

Análise bioclimática do bairro do Renascença II São Luis-MA: realidade e perspectiva do conforto térmico em espaços externos

The present research concerns about outdoor s thermal comfort conditions in hot-humid climate cities, understanding that life quality is a result of the urban object s type built for the human being in an environment with specific climate and morphological characteristics. It is presented as object of study the correlation between the neighborhood Renascença II s microclimate in São Luis /MA-Brazil, hot-humid climate city, and its urban morphological changes. As well as the thermal comfort s satisfaction level of its outdoor users. The research has as general goal to diagnosis the way these transformations caused by the urbanization influence the Renascença II s microclimate, identifying critical spots of the studied area, in order to contribute with land use recommendations based on bioclimatic architecture concepts and supply bases to urban design decisions adequate to the São Luis climate. It is presented as theoretical bases the urban climate, its concepts and elements. After that, the thermal comfort conditioners and its prediction models of thermal comfort sensation in outdoor are presented. The predictive models are presented along with bioclimatic assessment methods. Finally the use of bioclimatic assessment as an effective tool to identify places that need changes or preservation in order to seek environment quality. The applied methodology was based on the studies of Katzschner (1997), complemented by Oliveira s (1988) and Bustos Romero s (2001) studies that suggest an analysis and evaluation of maps of topography, buildings floors, land use, green areas and land covering, in order to overlap their characteristics and identify climate variable s measurements points; then a quantitative analysis of the climate variables (air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction) of the chosen points takes place. It was perceived that Renaissance II has no permanence areas as squares or parks, its outdoor has little vegetation and presets high land impermeability and built density levels. The majority of the people interviewed said that was comfortable in a range of air temperature between 27,28ºC and 30,71ºC. The elaboration of a neighborhood master plan is important, which defines strategies for improvement of the life quality of its inhabitants

Yes, nós temos arquitetura moderna! Reconstituição e análise da arquitetura residencial moderna em Natal das décadas de 50 e 60

Brazilian architecture was recognized because of the consecration of the icons of the Carioca and Paulista schools which are represented nationally and internationally by names like Niemeyer, Lucio Costa and Vilanova Artigas, among others. Because of this, classic studies dedicated to the Brazilian case look to present the Southeastern region with the title of father of modern Brazil, at the cost of subjugating various other modern movements and peripheral sayings, whether their values are known or forgotten. On the other hand, there has been an effort, in the sense of registering and analyzing these regional productions of modern Brazilian architecture, an assignment that DOCOMOMO Brasil participates firmly through initiatives like the creation of a Library to aid in the documentation and registration of modernity in Brazil. Inside this context of insertions of the National-Modern scheme, this work has as its objective to present modern potiguar (northern Brazil) architecture through its contemporary residential examples, investigating specifically its constructive, formal aspects, that together that together demonstrate one more architectural emphasis of modern Brazilian architecture: the potiguar. This way, by contributing to the work of the register and the documentation of the Modern Movement and attributing to the modern architecture of Natal it s real worth, we can say: Yes, we have modern architecture

A assistência técnica nos habitats do MST e o papel do arquiteto e urbanista

This dissertation is about Architect and town planner inserts in the technical support of the Rural establishment and of the possibilities of changes in their habitat. It also looks for its participation through the production of those spaces with or without its performance through two references cases, in Rio Grande do Norte , one called settlement Eldorado de Carajás and another one called Maria da Paz. At first the process represents the model that was adopted systematically by Incra until the middle of the year 2000 with the sub-contracting of their construction work through small companies. These standardized projects which are executed without registration in the system CONFEA/CREA without demand of professional authorship and of technical responsibility of the work. But the process taken place at Maria da Paz s area was configured as one of the first initiatives that stopped with those practices. Consolidated through a partnership among UFRN MST and INCRA/RN, the Architect s technical support and town planner brought new technician-scientific organization and execution of the soil parcels and its habitat. The participation of UFRN was done through a group of studies in land reform and Habitat (GERAH) being this author and coordinator of the methodological proposal, based on the regressive-progressive method and in the inclusion of the conflict as responsible of the ruptures and transductions both done by Henry Léfèbvre and in the research action approached by Carlos Brandão. Therefore it included the process of social learning and collective production of new knowledge and attitudes in relation to the environment in the process called as attended self management in spite of the transformations happened with this new agent s participation. The people re-located to the new areas that got involved in the process and finished their constructions reelaborating the daily practice of the collective effort passed to the self management without technical support. Years later the implantation of those two experiences our research verified that there is a positive image concerning the Architect and town planner, related, most of all to the conception of the activities, orientation and execution of constructions projects and of acceptance of those professionals to the processes of implementation of the Habitats of the Rural establishments. This dissertation analyses this form of performance, from and beyond these images trying to find the professional, specificities or methodological in such a way to demonstrate the importance of its insertion in the formulation and attendance of the more of 100.000 habitats of Rural establishments of the land reform of the country that correspond to most of the housing social interest in the country side

Bibliotecas digitais em Arquitetura e urbanismo: um estudo sobre a arquitetura da informação digital

The goal of this paper was to search the state of the art from the Digital Libraries in Architecture and Urbanism in the Higher Education Institutions (IES) through conceptualizations and showing the importance of Digital Libraries in the disclosure and easing of information transferring. Questions about digital information architecture, usability, digital preservation and accessibility were approached. The research was made in the websites of Brazilian Universities, firstly to identify the institutions which offered the Architecture and Urbanism course, focusing on postgraduate education. After identifying the offering, the research was done by analyzing the contents, storage and dissemination and access to information, these libraries. It was found that the digital libraries are increasingly and taking part of organizations and educational institutions focusing on the knowledge dissemination releasing digitally information that may be needed for institution or the individual. A monitoring was done over of the physical and computational restructuring of the Board of Studies and Research in Architecture and Urbanism (Câmara de Estudos e Pesquisa em Arquitetura e Urbanismo, CEPAU), from the Architecture and Urbanism Course of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), showing the need of installing a Digital Library to integrate the databases of PPGAU s research groups, which today remain independent, with no interface among themselves. The research chosen area was Architecture and Urbanism, because there is a gap and little documentation about digital libraries in this area

Análise de métodos para aplicação de ventilação natural em projetos de edificações em Natal-RN

Natural ventilation is an efficient bioclimatic strategy, one that provides thermal comfort, healthful and cooling to the edification. However, the disregard for quality environment, the uncertainties involved in the phenomenon and the popularization of artificial climate systems are held as an excuse for those who neglect the benefits of passive cooling. The unfamiliarity with the concept may be lessened if ventilation is observed in every step of the project, especially in the initial phase in which decisions bear a great impact in the construction process. The tools available in order to quantify the impact of projected decisions consist basically of the renovation rate calculations or computer simulations of fluids, commonly dubbed CFD, which stands for Computational Fluid Dynamics , both somewhat apart from the project s execution and unable to adapt for use in parametric studies. Thus, we chose to verify, through computer simulation, the representativeness of the results with a method of simplified air reconditioning rate calculation, as well as making it more compatible with the questions relevant to the first phases of the project s process. The case object consists of a model resulting from the recommendations of the Código de Obras de Natal/ RN, customized according to the NBR 15220. The study has shown the complexity in aggregating a CFD tool to the process and the need for a method capable of generating data at the compatible rate to the flow of ideas and are discarded during the project s development. At the end of our study, we discuss the necessary concessions for the realization of simulations, the applicability and the limitations of both the tools used and the method adopted, as well as the representativeness of the results obtained

Utilização de um aplicativo de simulação computacional na avaliação de desempenho térmico de protótipo de habitação de interesse social (his)

This Masters Degree dissertation seeks to make a comparative study of internal air temperature data, simulated through the thermal computer application DesignBuilder 1.2, and data registered in loco through HOBO® Temp Data Logger, in a Social Housing Prototype (HIS), located at the Central Campus of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte UFRN. The prototype was designed and built seeking strategies of thermal comfort recommended for the local climate where the study was carried out, and built with panels of cellular concrete by Construtora DoisA, a collaborator of research project REPESC Rede de Pesquisa em Eficiência Energética de Sistemas Construtivos (Research Network on Energy Efficiency of Construction Systems), an integral part of Habitare program. The methodology employed carefully examined the problem, reviewed the bibliography, analyzing the major aspects related to computer simulations for thermal performance of buildings, such as climate characterization of the region under study and users thermal comfort demands. The DesignBuilder 1.2 computer application was used as a simulation tool, and theoretical alterations were carried out in the prototype, then they were compared with the parameters of thermal comfort adopted, based on the area s current technical literature. Analyses of the comparative studies were performed through graphical outputs for a better understanding of air temperature amplitudes and thermal comfort conditions. The data used for the characterization of external air temperature were obtained from the Test Reference Year (TRY), defined for the study area (Natal-RN). Thus the author also performed comparative studies for TRY data registered in the years 2006, 2007 and 2008, at weather station Davis Precision Station, located at the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE-CRN (National Institute of Space Research), in a neighboring area of UFRN s Central Campus. The conclusions observed from the comparative studies performed among computer simulations, and the local records obtained from the studied prototype, point out that the simulations performed in naturally ventilated buildings is quite a complex task, due to the applications limitations, mainly owed to the complexity of air flow phenomena, the influence of comfort conditions in the surrounding areas and climate records. Lastly, regarding the use of the application DesignBuilder 1.2 in the present study, one may conclude that it is a good tool for computer simulations. However, it needs some adjustments to improve reliability in its use. There is a need for continued research, considering the dedication of users to the prototype, as well as the thermal charges of the equipment, in order to check sensitivity

UBS RN-7: proposta arquitetônica para um padrão flexível de unidade básica de saúde para a zona bioclimática 7 do RN, com ênfase na sustentabilidade ambiental

Standardization and sustainability: these two apparently antagonistic words find the challenge of uniting in a flexible architectonic proposal. This was the idea that motivated the proposal of this assignment, whose appearing is bound up with the necessity of thinking about standardized spaces that attend on functional criterias and environmental sustainability, in reply to an existing real demand. The assignment consists of an architectonic proposal for a flexible standard of a Basic Unit of Health for the bioclimatic zone 7 of RN (UBS RN-7), with emphasis in the environmental sustainability. The project contemplates innumerable involved variables, such as: obedience to the current law of the Health Ministry for the UBSs; formal/aesthetic aspects; criterias of expansiveness of the UBS I for the UBS II; relative aspects to the constructive rationality and, mainly, sustainability aspects. With the intention to unite the variables and, also, glimpsing a proposal that could reach a good functional performance, aesthetic, of environment comfort and energetic efficiency, it was also necessary to consider concepts about the flexibility of the envelopment. The elaboration of the architecture first draft was based on bibliographical research, conceptual studies and references, elaboration of the architectonic program and the draft development for the UBS port I and the UBS port II. To the end, an implantation data sheet for the project is proposed for the UBS standard project, where strategies of thermal isolation, shadowing and thermal inertia are adopted and combined to three possible types of lot, resulting in 24 possibilities of implantation