Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance predicts future falls in community-dwelling older adults

Background: a fall occurs when an individual experiences a loss of balance from which they are unable to recover. Assessment of balance recovery ability in older adults may therefore help to identify individuals at risk of falls. The purpose of this 12-month prospective study was to assess whether the ability to recover from a forward loss of balance with a single step across a range of lean magnitudes was predictive of falls. Methods: two hundred and one community-dwelling older adults, aged 65–90 years, underwent baseline testing of sensorimotor function and balance recovery ability followed by 12-month prospective falls evaluation. Balance recovery ability was defined by whether participants required either single or multiple steps to recover from forward loss of balance from three lean magnitudes, as well as the maximum lean magnitude participants could recover from with a single step. Results: forty-four (22%) participants experienced one or more falls during the follow-up period. Maximal recoverable lean magnitude and use of multiple steps to recover at the 15% body weight (BW) and 25%BW lean magnitudes significantly predicted a future fall (odds ratios 1.08–1.26). The Physiological Profile Assessment, an established tool that assesses variety of sensori-motor aspects of falls risk, was also predictive of falls (Odds ratios 1.22 and 1.27, respectively), whereas age, sex, postural sway and timed up and go were not predictive. Conclusion: reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance and physiological profile assessment are independent predictors of a future fall in community-dwelling older adults. Exercise interventions designed to improve reactive stepping behaviour may protect against future falls.

A natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin versus aqueous cream for managing radiation-induced skin reactions in patients with cancer : a phase III double-blind randomised controlled trial

Purpose To investigate the effects of a natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin versus aqueous cream for preventing and managing radiation induced skin reactions (RISR). Methods and Materials A total of 174 patients were randomised and participated in the study. Patients either received Cream 1 (the natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin) or Cream 2 (aqueous cream). Skin toxicity, pain, itching and skin-related quality of life scores were collected for up to four weeks after radiation treatment. Results Patients who received Cream 1 had a significantly lower average level of Common Toxicity Criteria at week 3 (p<0.05), but had statistically higher average levels of skin toxicity at weeks 7, 8 and 9 (all p<0.001). Similar results were observed when skin toxicity was analysed by grades. With regards to pain, patients in the Cream 2 group had a significantly higher average level of worst pain (p<0.05) and itching (p=0.046) compared to the Cream 1 group at week 3, however these differences were not observed at other weeks. In addition, there was a strong trend for Cream 2 to reduce the incidence of grade 2 or more skin toxicity in comparison to Cream 1 (p=0.056). Overall, more participants in the Cream 1 group were required to use another topical treatment at weeks 8 (p=0.049) and 9 (p=0.01). Conclusion The natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin appears to have similar effects for managing skin toxicity compared to aqueous cream up to week 5, however, it becomes significantly less effective at later weeks into the radiation treatment and beyond treatment completion (week 6 and beyond). There were no major differences in pain, itching and skin-related quality of life. In light of these results, clinicians and patients can base their decision on costs and preferences. Overall, aqueous cream appears to be a more preferred option.

The QUT innovation space : a trans-disciplinary learning environment for entrepreneurship education : final report

In the current climate of global economic volatility, there are increasing calls for training in enterprising skills and entrepreneurship to underpin the systemic innovation required for even medium-term business sustainability. The skills long-recognised as the essential for entrepreneurship now appear on the list of employability skills demanded by industry. The QUT Innovation Space (QIS) was an experiment aimed at delivering entrepreneurship education (EE), as an extra-curricular platform across the university, to the undergraduate students of an Australian higher education institute. It was an ambitious project that built on overseas models of EE studied during an Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC) Teaching Fellowship (Collet, 2011) and implemented those approaches across an institute. Such EE approaches have not been attempted in an Australian university. The project tested resonance not only with the student population, from the perspective of what worked and what didn’t work, but also with every level of university operations. Such information is needed to inform the development of EE in the Australian university landscape. The QIS comprised a physical co-working space, virtual sites (web, Twitter and Facebook) and a network of entrepreneurial mentors, colleagues, and students. All facets of the QIS enabled connection between like-minded individuals that underpins the momentum needed for a project of this nature. The QIS became an innovation community within QUT. This report serves two purposes. First, as an account of the QIS project and its evolution, the report serves to identify the student demand for skills and training as well as barriers and facilitators of the activities that promote EE in an Australian university context. Second, the report serves as a how-to manual, in the tradition of many tomes on EE, outlining the QIS activities that worked as well as those that failed. The activities represent one measure of QIS outcomes and are described herein to facilitate implementation in other institutes. The QIS initially aimed to adopt an incubation model for training in EE. The ‘learning by doing’ model for new venture creation is a highly successful and high profile training approach commonly found in overseas contexts. However, the greatest demand of the QUT student population was not for incubation and progression of a developed entrepreneurial intent, but rather for training that instilled enterprising skills in the individual. These two scenarios require different training approaches (Fayolle and Gailly, 2008). The activities of the QIS evolved to meet that student demand. In addressing enterprising skills, the QIS developed the antecedents of entrepreneurialism (i.e., entrepreneurial attitudes, motivation and behaviours) including high-level skills around risk-taking, effective communication, opportunity recognition and action-orientation. In focusing on the would-be entrepreneur and not on the (initial) idea per se, the QIS also fostered entrepreneurial outcomes that would never have gained entry to the rigid stage-gated incubation model proposed for the original QIS framework. Important lessons learned from the project for development of an innovation community include the need to: 1. Evaluate the context of the type of EE program to be delivered and the student demand for the skills training (as noted above). 2. Create a community that builds on three dimensions: a physical space, a virtual environment and a network of mentors and partners. 3. Supplement the community with external partnerships that aid in delivery of skills training materials. 4. Ensure discovery of the community through the use of external IT services to deliver advertising and networking outlets. 5. Manage unrealistic student expectations of billion dollar products. 6. Continuously renew and rebuild simple activities to maintain student engagement. 7. Accommodate the non-university end-user group within the community. 8. Recognise and address the skills bottlenecks that serve as barriers to concept progression; in this case, externally provided IT and programming skills. 9. Use available on-line and published resources rather than engage in constructing project-specific resources that quickly become obsolete. 10. Avoid perceptions of faculty ownership and operate in an increasingly competitive environment. 11. Recognise that the continuum between creativity/innovation and entrepreneurship is complex, non-linear and requires different training regimes during the different phases of the pipeline. One small entity, such as the QIS, cannot address them all. The QIS successfully designed, implemented and delivered activities that included events, workshops, seminars and services to QUT students in the extra-curricular space. That the QIS project can be considered successful derives directly from the outcomes. First, the QIS project changed the lives of emerging QUT student entrepreneurs. Also, the QIS activities developed enterprising skills in students who did not necessarily have a business proposition, at the time. Second, successful outcomes of the QIS project are evidenced as the embedding of most, perhaps all, of the QIS activities in a new Chancellery-sponsored initiative: the Leadership Development and Innovation Program hosted by QUT Student Support Services. During the course of the QIS project, the Brisbane-based innovation ecosystem underwent substantial change. From a dearth of opportunities for the entrepreneurially inclined, there is now a plethora of entities that cater for a diversity of innovation-related activities. While the QIS evolved with the landscape, the demand endpoint of the QIS activities still highlights a gap in the local and national innovation ecosystems. The freedom to experiment and to fail is not catered for by the many new entities seeking to build viable businesses on the back of the innovation push. The onus of teaching the enterprising skills, which are the employability skills now demanded by industry, remains the domain of the higher education sector.

Entrepreneurship education in non-business schools : best practice for Australian contexts of knowledge and innovation communities (Final Report)

In the current era of global economic instability, business and industry have already identified a widening gap between graduate skills and employability. An important element of this is the lack of entrepreneurial skills in graduates. This Teaching Fellowship investigated two sides of a story about entrepreneurial skills and their teaching. Senior players in the innovation commercialisation industry, a high profile entrepreneurial sector, were surveyed to gauge their needs and experiences of graduates they employ. International contexts of entrepreneurship education were investigated to explore how their teaching programs impart the skills of entrepreneurship. Such knowledge is an essential for the design of education programs that can deliver the entrepreneurial skills deemed important by industry for future sustainability. Two programs of entrepreneurship education are being implemented at QUT that draw on the best practice exemplars investigated during this Fellowship. The QUT Innovation Space (QIS) focuses on capturing the innovation and creativity of students, staff and others. The QIS is a physical and virtual meeting and networking space; a connected community enhancing the engagement of participants. The Q_Hatchery is still embryonic; but it is intended to be an innovation community that brings together nascent entrepreneurial businesses to collaborate, train and support each other. There is a niche between concept product and business incubator where an experiential learning environment for otherwise isolated ‘garage-at-home’ businesses could improve success rates. The QIS and the Q_Hatchery serve as living research laboratories to trial the concepts emerging from the skills survey. The survey of skills requirements of the innovation commercialisation industry has produced a large and high quality data set still being explored. Work experience as an employability factor has already emerged as an industry requirement that provides employee maturity. Exploratory factor analysis of the skills topics surveyed has led to a process-based conceptual model for teaching and learning higher-order entrepreneurial skills. Two foundational skills domains (Knowledge, Awareness) are proposed as prerequisites which allow individuals with a suite of early stage entrepreneurial and behavioural skills (Pre-leadership) to further leverage their careers into a leadership role in industry with development of skills around higher order elements of entrepreneurship, management in new business ventures and progressing winning technologies to market. The next stage of the analysis is to test the proposed model through structured equation modelling. Another factor that emerged quickly from the survey analysis broadens the generic concept of team skills currently voiced in Australian policy documents discussing the employability agenda. While there was recognition of the role of sharing, creating and using knowledge in a team-based interdisciplinary context, the adoption and adaptation of behaviours and attitudes of other team members of different disciplinary backgrounds (interprofessionalism) featured as an issue. Most undergraduates are taught and undertake teamwork in silos and, thus, seldom experience a true real-world interdisciplinary environment. Enhancing the entrepreneurial capacity of Australian industry is essential for the economic health of the country and can only be achieved by addressing the lack of entrepreneurial skills in graduates from the higher education system. This Fellowship has attempted to address this deficiency by identifying the skills requirements and providing frameworks for their teaching.

Managing Ethical Dilemmas

This chapter reviews almost a decade of research and writing undertaken by the authors into ethical dilemmas faced by leaders in a number of different operational contexts, including schools, universities and the public sector. The importance of this body of work is emphasised by one of our research participants who argued that ethical dilemmas were the 'bread and butter' of what leaders do. The chapter comprises four main sections. The first section overviews key theoretical aspects as background to the chapter, including relevant discussions about ethics and ethical decision-making. The second section synthesises the research findings from our work in the three contexts noted above, drawing out a set of learnings that contribute to better understandings of the nature, complexities and challenges of ethical dilemmas. This section is followed by a discussion of an explanatory conceptual model of ethical dilemmas that was developed initially from the literature and confirmed by our research. The model reminds us of some of the critical issues at play in ethical dilemmas, and some of the consequences and implications for organisational culture building they can generate. By way of a short scenario, the final section provides a theory-to-practice illustration of an ethical dilemma in action. A set of recommendations, drawn from the ideas of school leaders who have worked with this and similar dilemmas, is offered as a way forward to better understanding and resolution of such dilemmas so prevalent in our schools today.

Study Protocol - Alcohol Management Plans (AMPs) in remote indigenous communities in Queensland: their impacts on injury, violence, health and social indicators and their cost-effectiveness

Background In 2002/03 the Queensland Government responded to high rates of alcohol-related harm in discrete Indigenous communities by implementing alcohol management plans (AMPs), designed to include supply and harm reduction and treatment measures. Tighter alcohol supply and carriage restrictions followed in 2008 following indications of reductions in violence and injury. Despite the plans being in place for over a decade, no comprehensive independent review has assessed to what level the designed aims were achieved and what effect the plans have had on Indigenous community residents and service providers. This study will describe the long-term impacts on important health, economic and social outcomes of Queensland’s AMPs. Methods/Design The project has two main studies, 1) outcome evaluation using de-identified epidemiological data on injury, violence and other health and social indicators for across Queensland, including de-identified databases compiled from relevant routinely-available administrative data sets, and 2) a process evaluation to map the nature, timing and content of intervention components targeting alcohol. Process evaluation will also be used to assess the fidelity with which the designed intervention components have been implemented, their uptake and community responses to them and their perceived impacts on alcohol supply and consumption, injury, violence and community health. Interviews and focus groups with Indigenous residents and service providers will be used. The study will be conducted in all 24 of Queensland’s Indigenous communities affected by alcohol management plans. Discussion This evaluation will report on the impacts of the original aims for AMPs, what impact they have had on Indigenous residents and service providers. A central outcome will be the establishment of relevant databases describing the parameters of the changes seen. This will permit comprehensive and rigorous surveillance systems to be put in place and provided to communities empowering them with the best credible evidence to judge future policy and program requirements for themselves. The project will inform impending alcohol policy and program adjustments in Queensland and other Australian jurisdictions. The project has been approved by the James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number H4967 & H5241).

In conversation with the Honourable Ian Callinan AC

When, in 1977, the Australian electorate provided a double majority to effect a change of section 72 of the Commonwealth Constitution requiring judges of the High Court of Australia to retire at the age of 70 years old, I doubt we understood the continuing capacity of these esteemed members of the judiciary. For the opportunity to sit and talk with Ian Callinan AC who, in compliance with that amendment, retired from the High Court in September 2007, I needed to wait until he returned from The Hague where he was sitting as a Judge ad hoc on the International Court of Justice. Although a native of Casino, New South Wales, Mr Callinan is regarded as a Queenslander. Indeed, he grew up in Brisbane, finished high school at Brisbane Grammar and graduated in law at The University of Queensland. Appointed in 1978 as a Queen’s Counsel, Mr Callinan enjoyed this period of his legal career and we discussed an aspect of the Christopher Skase case, which reinforced my belief that Mr Callinan is an incredibly skilful advocate. On 14 September 1998, ABC Four Corners broadcasted the views of some prominent Australians on the appointment of Mr Callinan to the High Court. In assessing the type of person Mr Callinan is, Tony Morris QC said: “Ian Callinan isn't a coward”, while former Commonwealth Attorney-General, Michael Lavarch, said: “He was regarded as an absolutely outstanding criminal lawyer within the Queensland legal profession, I mean really a top-notch advocate”. I was not interested in raising any of the controversial issues that Mr Callinan has encountered as an advocate in high profile matters. I wanted to know how he felt about his time on the High Court, what his thoughts are on the operation of the High Court, the IP cases he decided, the real life issues that he feels impact on counsel who are appearing before the High Court and the people he regarded as role models. During our conversation, Mr Callinan laughed often and when he did his eyes lit up, revealing his passion for life. He is an incredibly genuine Australian who loved his time as a barrister, enjoyed his role on the High Court, enjoys his current job as mediator, loves writing novels, has a great desire for continual improvement in the quality of legal education and legal advocacy and sees a need for change in IP law. When I asked: “So, what might the future hold for you?”, he laughed and said: “Well, at my age I don’t have a long horizon time”. I said: “Just enjoy the journey?”, to which Mr Callinan responded: “Exactly”.

The Pareto regret frontier

Performance guarantees for online learning algorithms typically take the form of regret bounds, which express that the cumulative loss overhead compared to the best expert in hindsight is small. In the common case of large but structured expert sets we typically wish to keep the regret especially small compared to simple experts, at the cost of modest additional overhead compared to more complex others. We study which such regret trade-offs can be achieved, and how. We analyse regret w.r.t. each individual expert as a multi-objective criterion in the simple but fundamental case of absolute loss. We characterise the achievable and Pareto optimal trade-offs, and the corresponding optimal strategies for each sample size both exactly for each finite horizon and asymptotically.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Inhibition of the JAK2/STAT3 pathway in ovarian cancer results in the loss of cancer stem cell-like characteristics and a reduced tumor burden

Background Current treatment of ovarian cancer patients with chemotherapy leaves behind a residual tumor which results in recurrent ovarian cancer within a short time frame. We have previously demonstrated that a single short-term treatment of ovarian cancer cells with chemotherapy in vitro resulted in a cancer stem cell (CSC)-like enriched residual population which generated significantly greater tumor burden compared to the tumor burden generated by control untreated cells. In this report we looked at the mechanisms of the enrichment of CSC-like residual cells in response to paclitaxel treatment. Methods The mechanism of survival of paclitaxel-treated residual cells at a growth inhibitory concentration of 50% (GI50) was determined on isolated tumor cells from the ascites of recurrent ovarian cancer patients and HEY ovarian cancer cell line by in vitro assays and in a mouse xenograft model. Results Treatment of isolated tumor cells from the ascites of ovarian cancer patients and HEY ovarian cancer cell line with paclitaxel resulted in a CSC-like residual population which coincided with the activation of Janus activated kinase 2 (JAK2) and signal transducer and activation of transcription 3 (STAT3) pathway in paclitaxel surviving cells. Both paclitaxel-induced JAK2/STAT3 activation and CSC-like characteristics were inhibited by a low dose JAK2-specific small molecule inhibitor CYT387 (1 μM) in vitro. Subsequent, in vivo transplantation of paclitaxel and CYT387-treated HEY cells in mice resulted in a significantly reduced tumor burden compared to that seen with paclitaxel only-treated transplanted cells. In vitro analysis of tumor xenografts at protein and mRNA levels demonstrated a loss of CSC-like markers and CA125 expression in paclitaxel and CYT387-treated cell-derived xenografts, compared to paclitaxel only-treated cell-derived xenografts. These results were consistent with significantly reduced activation of JAK2 and STAT3 in paclitaxel and CYT387-treated cell-derived xenografts compared to paclitaxel only-treated cell derived xenografts. Conclusions This proof of principle study demonstrates that inhibition of the JAK2/STAT3 pathway by the addition of CYT387 suppresses the ‘stemness’ profile in chemotherapy-treated residual cells in vitro, which is replicated in vivo, leading to a reduced tumor burden. These findings have important implications for ovarian cancer patients who are treated with taxane and/or platinum-based therapies. Keywords: Ovarian carcinoma, Cancer stem cell, Metastasis, Ascites, Chemoresistance, Recurrence, JAK2/STAT3 pathway

Treatment with the vascular disruptive agent OXi4503 induces an immediate and widespread epithelial to mesenchymal transition in the surviving tumor

Epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) is considered an important mechanism in tumor resistance to drug treatments; however, in vivo observation of this process has been limited. In this study we demonstrated an immediate and widespread EMT involving all surviving tumor cells following treatment of a mouse model of colorectal liver metastases with the vascular disruptive agent OXi4503. EMT was characterized by significant downregulation of E-cadherin, relocation and nuclear accumulation of b-catenin as well as significant upregulation of ZEB1 and vimentin. Concomitantly, significant temporal upregulation in hypoxia and the pro-angiogenic growth factors hypoxia-inducible factor 1-alpha, hepatocyte growth factor, vascular endothelial growth factor and transforming growth factor-beta were seen within the surviving tumor. The process of EMT was transient and by 5 days after treatment tumor cell reversion to epithelial morphology was evident. This reversal, termed mesenchymal to epithelial transition (MET) is a process implicated in the development of new metastases but has not been observed in vivo histologically. Similar EMT changes were observed in response to other antitumor treatments including chemotherapy, thermal ablation, and antiangiogenic treatments in our mouse colorectal metastasis model and in a murine orthotopic breast cancer model after OXi4503 treatment. These results suggest that EMT may be an early mechanism adopted by tumors in response to injury and hypoxic stress, such that inhibition of EMT in combination with other therapies could play a significant role in future cancer therapy.

Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of IODP Site U1396 and compiled chronology offshore of south and south west Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Marine sediments around volcanic islands contain an archive of volcaniclastic deposits, which can be used to reconstruct the volcanic history of an area. Such records hold many advantages over often incomplete terrestrial datasets. This includes the potential for precise and continuous dating of intervening sediment packages, which allow a correlatable and temporally-constrained stratigraphic framework to be constructed across multiple marine sediment cores. Here, we discuss a marine record of eruptive and mass-wasting events spanning ~250 ka offshore of Montserrat, using new data from IODP Expedition 340, as well as previously collected cores. By using a combination of high-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy, AMS radiocarbon dating, biostratigraphy of foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils and clast componentry, we identify five major events at Soufriere Hills volcano since 250 ka. Lateral correlation of these events across sediment cores collected offshore of the south and south west of Montserrat, have improved our understanding of the timing, extent and associations between events in this area. Correlations reveal that powerful and potentially erosive density-currents travelled at least 33 km offshore, and demonstrate that marine deposits, produced by eruption-fed and mass-wasting events on volcanic islands, are heterogeneous in their spatial distribution. Thus, multiple drilling/coring sites are needed to reconstruct the full chronostratigraphy of volcanic islands. This multidisciplinary study will be vital to interpreting the chaotic records of submarine landslides at other sites drilled during Expedition 340 and provides a framework that can be applied to the stratigraphic analysis of sediments surrounding other volcanic islands.

Drosophila 3′ UTRs are more complex than protein-coding sequences

The 3′ UTRs of eukaryotic genes participate in a variety of post-transcriptional (and some transcriptional) regulatory interactions. Some of these interactions are well characterised, but an undetermined number remain to be discovered. While some regulatory sequences in 3′ UTRs may be conserved over long evolutionary time scales, others may have only ephemeral functional significance as regulatory profiles respond to changing selective pressures. Here we propose a sensitive segmentation methodology for investigating patterns of composition and conservation in 3′ UTRs based on comparison of closely related species. We describe encodings of pairwise and three-way alignments integrating information about conservation, GC content and transition/transversion ratios and apply the method to three closely related Drosophila species: D. melanogaster, D. simulans and D. yakuba. Incorporating multiple data types greatly increased the number of segment classes identified compared to similar methods based on conservation or GC content alone. We propose that the number of segments and number of types of segment identified by the method can be used as proxies for functional complexity. Our main finding is that the number of segments and segment classes identified in 3′ UTRs is greater than in the same length of protein-coding sequence, suggesting greater functional complexity in 3′ UTRs. There is thus a need for sustained and extensive efforts by bioinformaticians to delineate functional elements in this important genomic fraction. C code, data and results are available upon request.