The structure of the asteroid 4 Vesta as revealed by models of planet-scale collisions

Asteroid 4Vesta seems to be a major intact protoplanet, with a surface composition similar to that of the HED (howardite-eucrite-diogenite) meteorites. The southern hemisphere is dominated by a giant impact scar, but previous impact models have failed to reproduce the observed topography. The recent discovery that Vesta's southern hemisphere is dominated by two overlapping basins provides an opportunity to model Vesta's topography more accurately. Here we report three-dimensional simulations of Vesta's global evolution under two overlapping planet-scale collisions. We closely reproduce its observed shape, and provide maps of impact excavation and ejecta deposition. Spiral patterns observed in the younger basin Rheasilvia, about one billion years old, are attributed to Coriolis forces during crater collapse. Surface materials exposed in the north come from a depth of about 20kilometres, according to our models, whereas materials exposed inside the southern double-excavation come from depths of about 60-100kilometres. If Vesta began as a layered, completely differentiated protoplanet, then our model predicts large areas of pure diogenites and olivine-rich rocks. These are not seen, possibly implying that the outer 100kilometres or so of Vesta is composed mainly of a basaltic crust (eucrites) with ultramafic intrusions (diogenites).

Extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks.

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Molecular cross talk between misfolded proteins in animal models of Alzheimer's and prion diseases.

The central event in protein misfolding disorders (PMDs) is the accumulation of a misfolded form of a naturally expressed protein. Despite the diversity of clinical symptoms associated with different PMDs, many similarities in their mechanism suggest that distinct pathologies may cross talk at the molecular level. The main goal of this study was to analyze the interaction of the protein misfolding processes implicated in Alzheimer's and prion diseases. For this purpose, we inoculated prions in an Alzheimer's transgenic mouse model that develop typical amyloid plaques and followed the progression of pathological changes over time. Our findings show a dramatic acceleration and exacerbation of both pathologies. The onset of prion disease symptoms in transgenic mice appeared significantly faster with a concomitant increase on the level of misfolded prion protein in the brain. A striking increase in amyloid plaque deposition was observed in prion-infected mice compared with their noninoculated counterparts. Histological and biochemical studies showed the association of the two misfolded proteins in the brain and in vitro experiments showed that protein misfolding can be enhanced by a cross-seeding mechanism. These results suggest a profound interaction between Alzheimer's and prion pathologies, indicating that one protein misfolding process may be an important risk factor for the development of a second one. Our findings may have important implications to understand the origin and progression of PMDs.

Genetic and hormonal factors modulate spreading depression and transient hemiparesis in mouse models of familial hemiplegic migraine type 1.

Familial hemiplegic migraine type 1 (FHM1) is an autosomal dominant subtype of migraine with aura that is associated with hemiparesis. As with other types of migraine, it affects women more frequently than men. FHM1 is caused by mutations in the CACNA1A gene, which encodes the alpha1A subunit of Cav2.1 channels; the R192Q mutation in CACNA1A causes a mild form of FHM1, whereas the S218L mutation causes a severe, often lethal phenotype. Spreading depression (SD), a slowly propagating neuronal and glial cell depolarization that leads to depression of neuronal activity, is the most likely cause of migraine aura. Here, we have shown that transgenic mice expressing R192Q or S218L FHM1 mutations have increased SD frequency and propagation speed; enhanced corticostriatal propagation; and, similar to the human FHM1 phenotype, more severe and prolonged post-SD neurological deficits. The susceptibility to SD and neurological deficits is affected by allele dosage and is higher in S218L than R192Q mutants. Further, female S218L and R192Q mutant mice were more susceptible to SD and neurological deficits than males. This sex difference was abrogated by ovariectomy and senescence and was partially restored by estrogen replacement, implicating ovarian hormones in the observed sex differences in humans with FHM1. These findings demonstrate that genetic and hormonal factors modulate susceptibility to SD and neurological deficits in FHM1 mutant mice, providing a potential mechanism for the phenotypic diversity of human migraine and aura.

Family models of independence/interdependence and their intergenerational similarity in Germany, Turkey, and India

Family change theory suggests three ideal-typical family models characterized by different combinations of emotional and material interdependencies in the family. Its major proposition is that in economically developing countries with a collectivistic background a family model of emotional interdependence emerges from a family model of complete interdependence. The current study aims to identify and compare patterns of family-related value orientations related to family change theory across three cultures and two generations. Overall, N = 919 dyads of mothers and their adolescent children from Germany, Turkey, and India participated in the study. Three clusters were identified representing the family models of independence, interdependence, and emotional interdependence, respectively. Especially the identification of an emotionally interdependent value pattern using a person-oriented approach is an important step in the empirical validation of family change theory. The preference for the three family models differed across as well as within cultures and generations according to theoretical predictions. Dyadic analyses pointed to substantial intergenerational similarities and also to differences in family models, reflecting both cultural continuity as well as change in family-related value orientations.

Values of children and family models of adolescents: An eleven-culture study

Starting from Kagitcibasi's (2007) conceptualization of family models, this study compared N = 2961 adolescents' values across eleven cultures and explored whether patterns of values were related to the three proposed family models through cluster analyses. Three clusters with value profiles corresponding to the family models of interdependence, emotional interdependence, and independence were identified on the cultural as well as on the individual level. Furthermore, individual-level clusters corresponded to culture-level clusters in terms of individual cluster membership. The results largely support Kagitcibasi's proposition of changing family models and demonstrate their representation as individual-level value profiles across cultures.

THE MECHANISM OF TUMORIGENESIS IN THE IMMORTALIZED HUMAN PANCREATIC CELL LINES: CELL CULTURE MODELS OF HUMAN PANCREATIC CANCER

The mechanism of tumorigenesis in the immortalized human pancreatic cell lines: cell culture models of human pancreatic cancer Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the most lethal cancer in the world. The most common genetic lesions identified in PDAC include activation of K-ras (90%) and Her2 (70%), loss of p16 (95%) and p14 (40%), inactivation p53 (50-75%) and Smad4 (55%). However, the role of these signature gene alterations in PDAC is still not well understood, especially, how these genetic lesions individually or in combination contribute mechanistically to human pancreatic oncogenesis is still elusive. Moreover, a cell culture transformation model with sequential accumulation of signature genetic alterations in human pancreatic ductal cells that resembles the multiple-step human pancreatic carcinogenesis is still not established. In the present study, through the stepwise introduction of the signature genetic alterations in PDAC into the HPV16-E6E7 immortalized human pancreatic duct epithelial (HPDE) cell line and the hTERT immortalized human pancreatic ductal HPNE cell line, we developed the novel experimental cell culture transformation models with the most frequent gene alterations in PDAC and further dissected the molecular mechanism of transformation. We demonstrated that the combination of activation of K-ras and Her2, inactivation of p16/p14 and Smad4, or K-ras mutation plus p16 inactivation, was sufficient for the tumorigenic transformation of HPDE or HPNE cells respectively. We found that these transformed cells exhibited enhanced cell proliferation, anchorage-independent growth in soft agar, and grew tumors with PDAC histopathological features in orthotopic mouse model. Molecular analysis showed that the activation of K-ras and Her2 downstream effector pathways –MAPK, RalA, FAK, together with upregulation of cyclins and c-myc were involved in the malignant transformation. We discovered that MDM2, BMP7 and Bmi-1 were overexpressed in the tumorigenic HPDE cells, and that Smad4 played important roles in regulation of BMP7 and Bmi-1 gene expression and the tumorigenic transformation of HPDE cells. IPA signaling pathway analysis of microarray data revealed that abnormal signaling pathways are involved in transformation. This study is the first complete transformation model of human pancreatic ductal cells with the most common gene alterations in PDAC. Altogether, these novel transformation models more closely recapitulate the human pancreatic carcinogenesis from the cell origin, gene lesion, and activation of specific signaling pathway and histopathological features.

Representation via Probabilities: Models of Probabilistic Modeling

How do probabilistic models represent their targets and how do they allow us to learn about them? The answer to this question depends on a number of details, in particular on the meaning of the probabilities involved. To classify the options, a minimalist conception of representation (Su\'arez 2004) is adopted: Modelers devise substitutes (``sources'') of their targets and investigate them to infer something about the target. Probabilistic models allow us to infer probabilities about the target from probabilities about the source. This leads to a framework in which we can systematically distinguish between different models of probabilistic modeling. I develop a fully Bayesian view of probabilistic modeling, but I argue that, as an alternative, Bayesian degrees of belief about the target may be derived from ontic probabilities about the source. Remarkably, some accounts of ontic probabilities can avoid problems if they are supposed to apply to sources only.

Cultural models of healing and health: An ethnography of professional nurses and healers

Cultural models of the domains healing and health are important in how people understand health and their behavior regarding it. The biomedicine model has been predominant in Western society. Recent popularity of holistic health and alternative healing modalities contrasts with the biomedical model and the assumptions upon which that model has been practiced. The holistic health movement characterizes an effort by health care providers and others such as nurses to expand the biomedical model and has often incorporated alternative modalities. This research described and compared the cultural models of healing of professional nurses and alternative healers. A group of nursing faculty who promote a holistic model were compared to a group of healers using healing touch. Ethnographic methods of participant observation, free listing and pile sort were used. Theoretical sampling in the free listings reached saturation at 18 in the group of nurses and 21 in the group of healers. Categories consistent for both groups emerged from the data. These were: physical, mental, attitude, relationships, spiritual, self management, and health seeking including biomedical and alternative resources. The healers had little differentiation between the concepts health and healing. The nurses, however, had more elements in self management for health and in health seeking for healing. This reflects the nurse's role in facilitating the shift in locus of responsibility between health and healing. The healers provided more specific information regarding alternative resources. The healer's conceptualization of health was embedded in a spiritual belief system and contrasted dramatically with that of biomedicine. The healer's models also contrasted with holistic health in the areas of holism, locus of responsibility, and dealing with uncertainty. The similarity between the groups and their dissimilarity to biomedicine suggest a larger cultural shift in beliefs regarding health care. ^

Models of DNA sequence evolution

Models of DNA sequence evolution and methods for estimating evolutionary distances are needed for studying the rate and pattern of molecular evolution and for inferring the evolutionary relationships of organisms or genes. In this dissertation, several new models and methods are developed.^ The rate variation among nucleotide sites: To obtain unbiased estimates of evolutionary distances, the rate heterogeneity among nucleotide sites of a gene should be considered. Commonly, it is assumed that the substitution rate varies among sites according to a gamma distribution (gamma model) or, more generally, an invariant+gamma model which includes some invariable sites. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach was developed for estimating the shape parameter of the gamma distribution $(\alpha)$ and/or the proportion of invariable sites $(\theta).$ Computer simulation showed that (1) under the gamma model, $\alpha$ can be well estimated from 3 or 4 sequences if the sequence length is long; and (2) the distance estimate is unbiased and robust against violations of the assumptions of the invariant+gamma model.^ However, this ML method requires a huge amount of computational time and is useful only for less than 6 sequences. Therefore, I developed a fast method for estimating $\alpha,$ which is easy to implement and requires no knowledge of tree. A computer program was developed for estimating $\alpha$ and evolutionary distances, which can handle the number of sequences as large as 30.^ Evolutionary distances under the stationary, time-reversible (SR) model: The SR model is a general model of nucleotide substitution, which assumes (i) stationary nucleotide frequencies and (ii) time-reversibility. It can be extended to SRV model which allows rate variation among sites. I developed a method for estimating the distance under the SR or SRV model, as well as the variance-covariance matrix of distances. Computer simulation showed that the SR method is better than a simpler method when the sequence length $L>1,000$ bp and is robust against deviations from time-reversibility. As expected, when the rate varies among sites, the SRV method is much better than the SR method.^ The evolutionary distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies: The statistical properties of the paralinear and LogDet distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies were studied. First, I developed formulas for correcting the estimation biases of the paralinear and LogDet distances. The performances of these formulas and the formulas for sampling variances were examined by computer simulation. Second, I developed a method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the paralinear distance, so that statistical tests of phylogenies can be conducted when the nucleotide frequencies are nonstationary. Third, a new method for testing the molecular clock hypothesis was developed in the nonstationary case. ^

A comparison of Markov and generalized linear models of hospital mortality

This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^