Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Monitoring the vegetation start of season (SOS) across the island of Ireland using the MERIS global vegetation index

The aim of this study was to develop a methodology, based on satellite remote sensing, to estimate the vegetation Start of Season (SOS) across the whole island of Ireland on an annual basis. This growing body of research is known as Land Surface Phenology (LSP) monitoring. The SOS was estimated for each year from a 7-year time series of 10-day composited, 1.2 km reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data from 2003 to 2009, using the time series analysis software, TIMESAT. The selection of a 10-day composite period was guided by in-situ observations of leaf unfolding and cloud cover at representative point locations on the island. The MGVI time series was smoothed and the SOS metric extracted at a point corresponding to 20% of the seasonal MGVI amplitude. The SOS metric was extracted on a per pixel basis and gridded for national scale coverage. There were consistent spatial patterns in the SOS grids which were replicated on an annual basis and were qualitatively linked to variation in landcover. Analysis revealed that three statistically separable groups of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) classes could be derived from differences in the SOS, namely agricultural and forest land cover types, peat bogs, and natural and semi-natural vegetation types. These groups demonstrated that managed vegetation, e.g. pastures has a significantly earlier SOS than in unmanaged vegetation e.g. natural grasslands. There was also interannual spatio-temporal variability in the SOS. Such variability was highlighted in a series of anomaly grids showing variation from the 7-year mean SOS. An initial climate analysis indicated that an anomalously cold winter and spring in 2005/2006, linked to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index value, delayed the 2006 SOS countrywide, while in other years the SOS anomalies showed more complex variation. A correlation study using air temperature as a climate variable revealed the spatial complexity of the air temperature-SOS relationship across the Republic of Ireland as the timing of maximum correlation varied from November to April depending on location. The SOS was found to occur earlier due to warmer winters in the Southeast while it was later with warmer winters in the Northwest. The inverse pattern emerged in the spatial patterns of the spring correlates. This contrasting pattern would appear to be linked to vegetation management as arable cropping is typically practiced in the southeast while there is mixed agriculture and mostly pastures to the west. Therefore, land use as well as air temperature appears to be an important determinant of national scale patterns in the SOS. The TIMESAT tool formed a crucial component of the estimation of SOS across the country in all seven years as it minimised the negative impact of noise and data dropouts in the MGVI time series by applying a smoothing algorithm. The extracted SOS metric was sensitive to temporal and spatial variation in land surface vegetation seasonality while the spatial patterns in the gridded SOS estimates aligned with those in landcover type. The methodology can be extended for a longer time series of FAPAR as MERIS will be replaced by the ESA Sentinel mission in 2013, while the availability of full resolution (300m) MERIS FAPAR and equivalent sensor products holds the possibility of monitoring finer scale seasonality variation. This study has shown the utility of the SOS metric as an indicator of spatiotemporal variability in vegetation phenology, as well as a correlate of other environmental variables such as air temperature. However, the satellite-based method is not seen as a replacement of ground-based observations, but rather as a complementary approach to studying vegetation phenology at the national scale. In future, the method can be extended to extract other metrics of the seasonal cycle in order to gain a more comprehensive view of seasonal vegetation development.

Capturing the overarm throw in darts employing wireless inertial measurement

This work employs a custom built body area network of wireless inertial measurement technology to conduct a biomechanical analysis of precision targeted throwing in competitive and recreational darts. The solution is shown to be capable of measuring key biomechanical factors including speed, acceleration and timing. These parameters are subsequently correlated with scoring performance to determine the affect each variable has on outcome. For validation purposes an optical 3D motion capture system provides a complete kinematic model of the subject and enables concurrent benchmarking of the 'gold standard' optical inertial measurement system with the more affordable and proactive wireless inertial measurement solution developed as part of this work.

Similar T-cell immune responses induced by group M consensus env immunogens with wild-type or minimum consensus variable regions.

Consensus HIV-1 genes can decrease the genetic distances between candidate immunogens and field virus strains. To ensure the functionality and optimal presentation of immunologic epitopes, we generated two group-M consensus env genes that contain variable regions either from a wild-type B/C recombinant virus isolate (CON6) or minimal consensus elements (CON-S) in the V1, V2, V4, and V5 regions. C57BL/6 and BALB/c mice were primed twice with CON6, CON-S, and subtype control (92UG37_A and HXB2/Bal_B) DNA and boosted with recombinant vaccinia virus (rVV). Mean antibody titers against 92UG37_A, 89.6_B, 96ZM651_C, CON6, and CON-S Env protein were determined. Both CON6 and CON-S induced higher mean antibody titers against several of the proteins, as compared with the subtype controls. However, no significant differences were found in mean antibody titers in animals immunized with CON6 or CON-S. Cellular immune responses were measured by using five complete Env overlapping peptide sets: subtype A (92UG37_A), subtype B (MN_B, 89.6_B and SF162_B), and subtype C (Chn19_C). The intensity of the induced cellular responses was measured by using pooled Env peptides; T-cell epitopes were identified by using matrix peptide pools and individual peptides. No significant differences in T-cell immune-response intensities were noted between CON6 and CON-S immunized BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice. In BALB/c mice, 10 and eight nonoverlapping T-cell epitopes were identified in CON6 and CON-S, whereas eight epitopes were identified in 92UG37_A and HXB2/BAL_B. In C57BL/6 mice, nine and six nonoverlapping T-cell epitopes were identified after immunization with CON6 and CON-S, respectively, whereas only four and three were identified in 92UG37_A and HXB2/BAL_B, respectively. When combined together from both mouse strains, 18 epitopes were identified. The group M artificial consensus env genes, CON6 and CON-S, were equally immunogenic in breadth and intensity for inducing humoral and cellular immune responses.

Bayesian variable selection in structured high-dimensional covariate spaces with applications in genomics

We consider the problem of variable selection in regression modeling in high-dimensional spaces where there is known structure among the covariates. This is an unconventional variable selection problem for two reasons: (1) The dimension of the covariate space is comparable, and often much larger, than the number of subjects in the study, and (2) the covariate space is highly structured, and in some cases it is desirable to incorporate this structural information in to the model building process. We approach this problem through the Bayesian variable selection framework, where we assume that the covariates lie on an undirected graph and formulate an Ising prior on the model space for incorporating structural information. Certain computational and statistical problems arise that are unique to such high-dimensional, structured settings, the most interesting being the phenomenon of phase transitions. We propose theoretical and computational schemes to mitigate these problems. We illustrate our methods on two different graph structures: the linear chain and the regular graph of degree k. Finally, we use our methods to study a specific application in genomics: the modeling of transcription factor binding sites in DNA sequences. © 2010 American Statistical Association.

Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Effect of primary care physicians' use of estimated glomerular filtration rate on the timing of their subspecialty referral decisions.

BACKGROUND: Primary care providers' suboptimal recognition of the severity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may contribute to untimely referrals of patients with CKD to subspecialty care. It is unknown whether U.S. primary care physicians' use of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) rather than serum creatinine to estimate CKD severity could improve the timeliness of their subspecialty referral decisions. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 154 United States primary care physicians to assess the effect of use of eGFR (versus creatinine) on the timing of their subspecialty referrals. Primary care physicians completed a questionnaire featuring questions regarding a hypothetical White or African American patient with progressing CKD. We asked primary care physicians to identify the serum creatinine and eGFR levels at which they would recommend patients like the hypothetical patient be referred for subspecialty evaluation. We assessed significant improvement in the timing [from eGFR < 30 to ≥ 30 mL/min/1.73m(2)) of their recommended referrals based on their use of creatinine versus eGFR. RESULTS: Primary care physicians recommended subspecialty referrals later (CKD more advanced) when using creatinine versus eGFR to assess kidney function [median eGFR 32 versus 55 mL/min/1.73m(2), p < 0.001]. Forty percent of primary care physicians significantly improved the timing of their referrals when basing their recommendations on eGFR. Improved timing occurred more frequently among primary care physicians practicing in academic (versus non-academic) practices or presented with White (versus African American) hypothetical patients [adjusted percentage(95% CI): 70% (45-87) versus 37% (reference) and 57% (39-73) versus 25% (reference), respectively, both p ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Primary care physicians recommended subspecialty referrals earlier when using eGFR (versus creatinine) to assess kidney function. Enhanced use of eGFR by primary care physicians' could lead to more timely subspecialty care and improved clinical outcomes for patients with CKD.

A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses.

Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.

The impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on PTSD symptoms and psychosocial functioning among older adults.

The present study examined the impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and psychosocial functioning in a large sample of community-dwelling older adults (N = 1,995). Specifically, we investigated whether the negative consequences of exposure to traumatic events were greater for traumas experienced during childhood, adolescence, young adulthood, midlife, or older adulthood. Each of these developmental periods is characterized by age-related changes in cognitive and social processes that may influence psychological adjustment following trauma exposure. Results revealed that older adults who experienced their currently most distressing traumatic event during childhood exhibited more severe symptoms of PTSD and lower subjective happiness compared with older adults who experienced their most distressing trauma after the transition to adulthood. Similar findings emerged for measures of social support and coping ability. The differential effects of childhood compared with later life traumas were not fully explained by differences in cumulative trauma exposure or by differences in the objective and subjective characteristics of the events. Our findings demonstrate the enduring nature of traumatic events encountered early in the life course and underscore the importance of examining the developmental context of trauma exposure in investigations of the long-term consequences of traumatic experiences.

Are the reference values of B cell subpopulations used in adults for classification of common variable immunodeficiencies appropriate for children?

Detailed phenotypic characterization of B cell subpopulations is of utmost importance for the diagnosis and management of humoral immunodeficiencies, as they are used for classification of common variable immunodeficiencies. Since age-specific reference values remain scarce in the literature, we analysed by flow cytometry the proportions and absolute values of total, memory, switched memory and CD21(-/low) B cells in blood samples from 168 healthy children (1 day to 18 years) with special attention to the different subpopulations of CD21(low) B cells. The percentages of total memory B cells and their subsets significantly increased up to 5-10 years. In contrast, the percentages of immature CD21(-) B cells and of immature transitional CD21(low)CD38(hi) B cells decreased progressively with age, whereas the percentage of CD21(low) CD38(low) B cells remained stable during childhood. Our data stress the importance of age-specific reference values for the correct interpretation of B cell subsets in children as a diagnostic tool in immunodeficiencies.

Evaluación de las calidades de sitio para Eucalyptus camaldulensis en suelos hidrohalomórficos de la región de la Cuenca del Río Salado, provincia de Buenos Aires

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El dominio de la variable: variable didáctica en el álgebra escolar

En el análisis del discurso matemático manifiesto en un texto de álgebra escolar, hemos encontrado que el dominio de la variable es un concepto presente desde la aparición de las expresiones generalizadoras de operaciones, relaciones y propiedades de los números reales, que tan sólo se explicita en el estudio del álgebra de las expresiones algebraicas. Este concepto, junto con el de conjunto de referencia de una expresión y con el de conjunto solución, juega un papel protagónico en diferentes contextos del álgebra escolar, que le permiten configurarse como una variable didáctica imprescindible en la significación de muchos otros conceptos algebraicos.

La construcción social de la noción de variable

Este documento centra su atención en la noción de variable como elemento básico de la construcción de conceptos relacionados a fenómenos de variación y cambio. Partimos de que la variable no es una idea construida como un objeto o proceso aislado, sino que surge necesariamente de la relación de al menos dos entidades cambiantes que en la mayoría de los casos una de ellas es la variable tiempo. Pretendemos realizar el estudio de la variable desde diferentes dimensiones: la epistemológica, la cognitiva, la didáctica y la sociocultural, para poder tener elementos que nos permitan determinar qué procesos favorecen la construcción de esta noción y asimismo realizar su caracterización.

Acerca de la enseñanza de inecuaciones de una variable

En el artículo se exponen dos métodos de resolución de inecuaciones. Se comparan desde varios puntos de vista y se comentan algunos aspectos del trabajo realizado a partir de 1983 en la enseñanza de dicho tópico en la facultad de ciencias de la Universidad Central de Venezuela.

Performance analysis of a register insertion ring with a variable size buffer

There has been a recent revival of interest in the register insertion (RI) protocol because of its high throughput and low delay characteristics. Several variants of the protocol have been investigated with a view to integrating voice and data applications on a single local area network (LAN). In this paper the performance of an RI ring with a variable size buffer is studied by modelling and simulation. The chief advantage of the proposed scheme is that an efficient but simple bandwidth allocation scheme is easily incorporated. Approximate formulas are derived for queue lengths, queueing times, and total end-to-end transfer delays. The results are compared with previous analyses and with simulation estimates. The effectiveness of the proposed protocol in ensuring fairness of access under conditions of heavy and unequal loading is investigated.