Käyttöpääoman mittaaminen ja hallinta valmistavassa teollisuusyrityksessä

Diplomityön päätavoitteena on vapauttaa pääomaa kohdeyrityksen käyttöpääoman komponenteista tuottavia investointeja varten. Tutkimus on toteutettu konstruktiivisena case-tutkimuksena. Aineistona on tieteellisen kirjallisuuden lisäksi käytetty tilinpäätösraportteja, tuotannossa käytettävien komponenttien ja valmistettavien tuotteiden tuote- ja tuoteryhmäkohtaisia tietoja sekä yrityksen avainhenkilöiden haastatteluja. Kysynnän epävarmuus ja liiketoiminnan kausiluonteisuus aiheuttavat vaihteluita yrityksen käyttöpääomatarpeeseen, ja näihin vaihteluihin yrityksen tulisi kyetä vastaamaan. Työn tuloksia ovat käyttöpääoman ennuste- ja optimimittaristot sekä 16 yritykselle räätälöityä käyttöpääoman hallinnan keinoa. Keinoja ovat muun muassa tilauspisteiden jatkuva päivittäminen ja tiiviimpi toimittajayhteistyö. Mittaaminen, optimitason määrittäminen ja hallintakeinojen määritys ja toteutus muodostavat käyttöpääoman hallinnan syklin, jonka tulisi toistua käyttöpääoman hallinnassa. Käyttöpääomasta vapautunut pääoma tulee sijoittaa yrityksen tuottaviin investointeihin. Investointien myötä yrityksen kannattavuus ja maksuvalmius paranevat. Tulevaisuudessa, parantuneen maksuvalmiuden myötä on käyttöpääoman hallinnan strategia määritettävä uudelleen.

The industrial equilibrium exchange rate in Brazil: an estimation

This paper presents a methodology for calculating the industrial equilibrium exchange rate, which is defined as the one enabling exporters of state-of-the-art manufactured goods to be competitive abroad. The first section highlights the causes and problems of overvalued exchange rates, particularly the Dutch disease issue, which is neutralized when the exchange rate strikes the industrial equilibrium level. This level is defined by the ratio between the unit labor cost in the country under consideration and in competing countries. Finally, the evolution of this exchange rate in the Brazilian economy is estimated.

Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: empirical estimation

The aim of this paper is to discuss the trend of overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s, presenting an econometric model to estimate the real exchange rate (RER) and which should be a reference level of the RER to guide long-term economic policy. In the econometric model, we consider long-term structural and short-term components, both of which may be responsible for explaining overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency. Our econometric exercise confirms that the Brazilian currency had been persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis, and we suggest that the long-term reference level of the real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In July 2014, the average nominal exchange rate should have been around 2.90 Brazilian reais per dollar (against an observed nominal rate of 2.22 Brazilian reais per dollar) to achieve the 2004 real reference level (average of the year). That is, according to our estimates, in July 2014 the Brazilian real was overvalued at 30.6 per cent in real terms relative to the reference level. Based on these findings we conclude the paper suggesting a mix of policy instruments that should have been used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching a real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run which would favor resource allocation toward more technological intensive sectors.

Parameter estimation for Chaotic or Stochastic Dynamics

Since its discovery, chaos has been a very interesting and challenging topic of research. Many great minds spent their entire lives trying to give some rules to it. Nowadays, thanks to the research of last century and the advent of computers, it is possible to predict chaotic phenomena of nature for a certain limited amount of time. The aim of this study is to present a recently discovered method for the parameter estimation of the chaotic dynamical system models via the correlation integral likelihood, and give some hints for a more optimized use of it, together with a possible application to the industry. The main part of our study concerned two chaotic attractors whose general behaviour is diff erent, in order to capture eventual di fferences in the results. In the various simulations that we performed, the initial conditions have been changed in a quite exhaustive way. The results obtained show that, under certain conditions, this method works very well in all the case. In particular, it came out that the most important aspect is to be very careful while creating the training set and the empirical likelihood, since a lack of information in this part of the procedure leads to low quality results.

Offshoring and outsourcing under demand uncertainty -a supply chain management analysis

Outsourcing and offshoring or any combinations of these have not just become a popular phenomenon, but are viewed as one of the most important management strategies due to the new possibilities from globalization. They have been seen as a possibility to save costs and improve customer service. Executing offshoring and offshore outsourcing successfully can be more complex than initially expected. Potential cost savings resulting from of offshoring and offshore outsourcing are often based on lower manufacturing costs. However, these benefits might be conflicted by a more complex supply chain with service level challenges that can respectively increase costs. Therefore analyzing the total cost effects of offshoring and outsourcing is necessary. The aim of this Master´s Thesis was to to construct a total cost model using academic literature to calculate the total costs and analyze the reasonability of offshoring and offshore outsourcing production of a case company compared to insourcing production. The research data was mainly quantitative and collected mainly from the case company past sales and production records. In addition management level interviews from the case company were conducted. The information from these interviews was used for the qualification of the necessary quantitative data and adding supportive information that could not be gathered from the quantitative data. Both data collection and analysis were guided by a theoretical frame of reference that was based on academic literature concerning offshoring and outsourcing, statistical calculation of demand and total costs. The results confirm the theories that offshoring and offshore outsourcing would reduce total costs as both offshoring and offshore outsourcing options result in lower total annual costs than insourcing mainly due to lower manufacturing costs. However, increased demand uncertainty would make the alternative of offshore outsourcing more risky and difficult to manage. Therefore when assessing the overall impact of the alternatives, offshoring is the most preferable option. As the main cost savings in offshore outsourcing came from lower manufacturing costs, more specifically labour costs, the logistics costs in this case company did not have an essential effect in total costs. The management should therefore pay attention initially to manufacturing costs and then logistics costs when choosing the best production sourcing option for the company.

Opportunity meets uncertainty. Towards sustainable business in the Arctic region

The Arctic region is experiencing a significant change in terms of climate change and a growing economic interest towards its natural resources and emerging business opportunities. The purpose of this study is to explore how can Finnish companies create sustainable business in the Arctic. This is done by examining the arctic business environment, identifying sectors with growth potential, addressing challenges related to operating in the Arctic and suggesting how to ensure sustainability and succeed in the globally competed arctic market. The theoretical framework is based on theories of sustainable development, corporate social responsibility and the role of strategy in creating sustainable business. Empirical data was collected by using qualitative research methods: first, background knowledge was formed based on written documents and, secondly, six expert interviews were conducted in early 2014. The interviewees represented the viewpoints of companies, political decision makers and NGO’s. The analysis of the data was conducted using thematic categorization. The empirical findings of the study suggest that in order to create sustainable business in the Arctic companies should adopt a long-term perspective, embrace a holistic approach to sustainability, understand interdependencies between the dimensions of sustainability and aim at high-level engagement in responsible behavior. To succeed in the arctic market core competencies, customer needs, multivendor cooperation and long-term presence need to be invested in on a company level. In addition, to promote and advance arctic development on a national level support is needed in terms of investments in infrastructure, funding research and design, creating a regulative framework and removing barriers of trade.

« Inventaire, prisée et estimation des livres trouvés à St-Mandé, appartenant ci-devant à Mr Fouquet... 1665 ».

Original.

Variational Monte Carlo estimation of the dissociation energy of CuH using correlated sampling

A new approach to treating large Z systems by quantum Monte Carlo has been developed. It naturally leads to notion of the 'valence energy'. Possibilities of the new approach has been explored by optimizing the wave function for CuH and Cu and computing dissociation energy and dipole moment of CuH using variational Monte Carlo. The dissociation energy obtained is about 40% smaller than the experimental value; the method is comparable with SCF and simple pseudopotential calculations. The dipole moment differs from the best theoretical estimate by about 50% what is again comparable with other methods (Complete Active Space SCF and pseudopotential methods).

Exact property estimation from diffusion Monte Carlo with minimal stochastic reconfiguration /

Our objective is to develop a diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm to estimate the exact expectation values, ($o|^|^o), of multiplicative operators, such as polarizabilities and high-order hyperpolarizabilities, for isolated atoms and molecules. The existing forward-walking pure diffusion Monte Carlo (FW-PDMC) algorithm which attempts this has a serious bias. On the other hand, the DMC algorithm with minimal stochastic reconfiguration provides unbiased estimates of the energies, but the expectation values ($o|^|^) are contaminated by ^, an user specified, approximate wave function, when A does not commute with the Hamiltonian. We modified the latter algorithm to obtain the exact expectation values for these operators, while at the same time eliminating the bias. To compare the efficiency of FW-PDMC and the modified DMC algorithms we calculated simple properties of the H atom, such as various functions of coordinates and polarizabilities. Using three non-exact wave functions, one of moderate quality and the others very crude, in each case the results are within statistical error of the exact values.

Scales, networks and uncertainty : an examination of environmental policy-making in Ontario

Through a case-study analysis of Ontario's ethanol policy, this thesis addresses a number of themes that are consequential to policy and policy-making: spatiality, democracy and uncertainty. First, I address the 'spatial debate' in Geography pertaining to the relevance and affordances of a 'scalar' versus a 'flat' ontoepistemology. I argue that policy is guided by prior arrangements, but is by no means inevitable or predetermined. As such, scale and network are pragmatic geographical concepts that can effectively address the issue of the spatiality of policy and policy-making. Second, I discuss the democratic nature of policy-making in Ontario through an examination of the spaces of engagement that facilitate deliberative democracy. I analyze to what extent these spaces fit into Ontario's environmental policy-making process, and to what extent they were used by various stakeholders. Last, I take seriously the fact that uncertainty and unavoidable injustice are central to policy, and examine the ways in which this uncertainty shaped the specifics of Ontario's ethanol policy. Ultimately, this thesis is an exercise in understanding sub-national environmental policy-making in Canada, with an emphasis on how policy-makers tackle the issues they are faced with in the context of environmental change, political-economic integration, local priorities, individual goals, and irreducible uncertainty.

Electrophysiological constituents of the P100 and N170 ERP complex: De-constructing of face processing using independent component analysis and robust estimation.

The initial timing of face-specific effects in event-related potentials (ERPs) is a point of contention in face processing research. Although effects during the time of the N170 are robust in the literature, inconsistent effects during the time of the P100 challenge the interpretation of the N170 as being the initial face-specific ERP effect. The interpretation of the early P100 effects are often attributed to low-level differences between face stimuli and a host of other image categories. Research using sophisticated controls for low-level stimulus characteristics (Rousselet, Husk, Bennett, & Sekuler, 2008) report robust face effects starting at around 130 ms following stimulus onset. The present study examines the independent components (ICs) of the P100 and N170 complex in the context of a minimally controlled low-level stimulus set and a clear P100 effect for faces versus houses at the scalp. Results indicate that four ICs account for the ERPs to faces and houses in the first 200ms following stimulus onset. The IC that accounts for the majority of the scalp N170 (icNla) begins dissociating stimulus conditions at approximately 130 ms, closely replicating the scalp results of Rousselet et al. (2008). The scalp effects at the time of the P100 are accounted for by two constituent ICs (icP1a and icP1b). The IC that projects the greatest voltage at the scalp during the P100 (icP1a) shows a face-minus-house effect over the period of the P100 that is less robust than the N 170 effect of icN 1 a when measured as the average of single subject differential activation robustness. The second constituent process of the P100 (icP1b), although projecting a smaller voltage to the scalp than icP1a, shows a more robust effect for the face-minus-house contrast starting prior to 100 ms following stimulus onset. Further, the effect expressed by icP1 b takes the form of a larger negative projection to medial occipital sites for houses over faces partially canceling the larger projection of icP1a, thereby enhancing the face positivity at this time. These findings have three main implications for ERP research on face processing: First, the ICs that constitute the face-minus-house P100 effect are independent from the ICs that constitute the N170 effect. This suggests that the P100 effect and the N170 effect are anatomically independent. Second, the timing of the N170 effect can be recovered from scalp ERPs that have spatio-temporally overlapping effects possibly associated with low-level stimulus characteristics. This unmixing of the EEG signals may reduce the need for highly constrained stimulus sets, a characteristic that is not always desirable for a topic that is highly coupled to ecological validity. Third, by unmixing the constituent processes of the EEG signals new analysis strategies are made available. In particular the exploration of the relationship between cortical processes over the period of the P100 and N170 ERP complex (and beyond) may provide previously unaccessible answers to questions such as: Is the face effect a special relationship between low-level and high-level processes along the visual stream?

How health organizations can apply scenario based planning and analytic technologies to make strategic consequential decisions in a time of uncertainty

The magnitude of the cervical cancer problem, coupled with the potential for prevention with recent technological advances, made it imperative to step back and reassess strategic options for dealing with cervical cancer screening in Kenya. The purpose of this qualitative study was: 1) to explore the extent to which the Participatory Action Research (PAR) methodology and the Scenario Based Planning (SBP) method, with the application of analytics, could enable strategic, consequential, informed decision making, and 2) to determine how influential Kenyan decision makers could apply SBP with analytic tools and techniques to make strategic, consequential decisions regarding the implementation of a Cervical Self Sampling Program (CSSP) in both urban and rural settings. The theoretical paradigm for this study was action research; it was experiential, practical, and action oriented, and resulted in co-created knowledge that influenced study participants’ decision making. Action Africa Help International (AAHI) and Brock University collaborated with Local Decision Influencing Participants (LDIP’s) to develop innovative strategies on how to implement the CSSP. SBP tools, along with traditional approaches to data collection and analysis, were applied to collect, visualize and analyze predominately qualitative data. Outputs from the study included: a) a generic implementation scenario for a CSSP (along with scenarios unique to urban and rural settings), and b) 10 strategic directions and 22 supporting implementation strategies that address the variables of: 1) technical viability, 2) political support, 3) affordability, 4) logistical feasibility, 5) social acceptability, and 6) transformation/sustainability. In addition, study participants’ capacity to effectively engage in predictive/prescriptive strategic decision making was strengthened.

Comparaison des performances relatives de différents modèles d'estimation de la valeur à risque.

Rapport de recherche