Reputation Formation and the Evolution of Cooperation in Anonymous Online Markets

Theoretical propositions stressing the importance of trust, reciprocity, and reputation for cooperation in social exchange relations are deeply rooted in classical sociological thought. Today’s online markets provide a unique opportunity to test these theories using unobtrusive data. Our study investigates the mechanisms promoting cooperation in an online-auction market where most transactions can be conceived as one-time-only exchanges. We first give a systematic account of the theoretical arguments explaining the process of cooperative transactions. Then, using a large dataset comprising 14,627 mobile phone auctions and 339,517 DVD auctions, we test key hypotheses about the effects of traders’ reputations on auction outcomes and traders’ motives for leaving feedback. Our statistical analyses show that sellers with better reputations have higher sales and obtain higher prices. Furthermore, we observe a high rate of participation in the feedback system, which is largely consistent with strong reciprocity—a predisposition to unconditionally reward (or punish) one’s interaction partner’s cooperation (or defection)—and altruism—a predisposition to increase one’s own utility by elevating an interaction partner’s utility. Our study demonstrates how strong reciprocity and altruism can mitigate the free-rider problem in the feedback system to create reputational incentives for mutually beneficial online trade.

Treatment evolution in high-risk congenital diaphragmatic hernia: ten years' experience with diaphragmatic agenesis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of newer therapies on the highest risk patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH), those with agenesis of the diaphragm. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: CDH remains a significant cause of neonatal mortality. Many novel therapeutic interventions have been used in these infants. Those children with large defects or agenesis of the diaphragm have the highest mortality and morbidity. METHODS: Twenty centers from 5 countries collected data prospectively on all liveborn infants with CDH over a 10-year period. The treatment and outcomes in these patients were examined. Patients were followed until death or hospital discharge. RESULTS: A total of 1,569 patients with CDH were seen between January 1995 and December 2004 in 20 centers. A total of 218 patients (14%) had diaphragmatic agenesis and underwent repair. The overall survival for all patients was 68%, while survival was 54% in patients with agenesis. When patients with diaphragmatic agenesis from the first 2 years were compared with similar patients from the last 2 years, there was significantly less use of ECMO (75% vs. 52%) and an increased use of inhaled nitric oxide (iNO) (30% vs. 80%). There was a trend toward improved survival in patients with agenesis from 47% in the first 2 years to 59% in the last 2 years. The survivors with diaphragmatic agenesis had prolonged hospital stays compared with patients without agenesis (median, 68 vs. 30 days). For the last 2 years of the study, 36% of the patients with agenesis were discharged on tube feedings and 22% on oxygen therapy. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a change in the management of infants with CDH with less frequent use of ECMO and a greater use of iNO in high-risk patients with a potential improvement in survival. However, the mortality, hospital length of stay, and morbidity in agenesis patients remain significant.

Inherited and noninherited sources of variation in metastasis and the growth rate of tumors: Implications for tumor evolution and therapy

I have undertaken measurements of the genetic (or inherited) and nongenetic (or noninherited) components of the variability of metastasis formation and tumor diameter doubling time in more than 100 metastatic lines from each of three murine tumors (sarcoma SANH, sarcoma SA4020, and hepatocarcinoma HCA-I) syngeneic to C3Hf/Kam mice. These lines were isolated twice from lung metastases and analysed immediately thereafter to obtain the variance to spontaneous lung metastasis and tumor diameter doubling time. Additional studies utilized cells obtained from within 4 passages of isolation. Under the assumption that no genetic differences in metastasis formation or diameter doubling time existed among the cells of a given line, the variance within a line would estimate nongenetic variation. The variability derived from differences between lines would represent genetic origin. The estimates of the genetic contribution to the variation of metastasis and tumor diameter doubling time were significantly greater than zero, but only in the metastatic lines of tumor SANH was genetic variation the major source of metastatic variability (contributing 53% of the variability). In the tumor cell lines of SA4020 and HCA-I, however, the contribution of nongenetic factors predominated over genetic factors in the variability of the number of metastasis and tumor diameter doubling time. A number of other parameters examined, such as DNA content, karyotype, and selection and variance analysis with passage in vivo, indicated that genetic differences existed within the cell lines and that these differences were probably created by genetic instability. The mean metastatic propensity of the lines may have increased somewhat during their isolation and isotransplantation, but the variance was only slightly affected, if at all. Analysis of the DNA profiles of the metastatic lines of SA4020 and HCA-I revealed differences between these lines and their primary parent tumors, but not among the SANH lines and their parent tumor. Furthermore, there was a direct correlation between the extent of genetic influence on metastasis formation and the ability of the tumor cells to develop resistance to cisplatinum. Thus although nongenetic factors might predominate in contributing to metastasis formation, it is probably genetic variation and genetic instability that cause the progression of tumor cells to a more metastatic phenotype and leads to the emergence of drug resistance. ^

Selective elevation of c-{\it myc} RNA transcripts during clonal evolution of N-methyl-N-nitrosourea induced thymic lymphomas in AKR/J mice

Untreated AKR mice develop spontaneous thymic lymphomas by 6-12 months of age. Lymphoma development is accelerated when young mice are injected with the carcinogen N-methyl-N-nitrosourea (MNU). Selected molecular and cellular events were compared during the latent period preceding "spontaneous" (retrovirally-induced) and MNU-induced thymic lymphoma development in AKR mice. These studies were undertaken to test the hypothesis that thymic lymphomas induced in the same inbred mouse strain by endogenous retroviruses and by a chemical carcinogen develop by different mechanisms.^ Immunofluorescence analysis of differentiation antigens showed that most MNU-induced lymphomas express an immature CD4-8+ profile. In contrast, spontaneous lymphomas represent each of the major lymphocyte subsets. These data suggest involvement of different target populations in MNU-induced and spontaneous lymphomas. Analyses at intervals after MNU treatment revealed selective expansion of the CD4-8+ J11d+ thymocyte subset at 8-10 weeks post-MNU in 68% of the animals examined, suggesting that these cells are targets for MNU-induced lymphomagenesis. Untreated age-matched animals showed no selective expansion of thymocyte subsets.^ Previous data have shown that both spontaneous and MNU-induced lymphomas are monoclonal or oligoclonal. Distinct rearrangement patterns of the J$\sb2$ region of the T-cell receptor $\beta$-chain showed emergence of clonal thymocyte populations beginning at 6-7 weeks after MNU treatment. However, lymphocytes from untreated animals showed no evidence of clonal expansion at the time intervals investigated.^ Activation of c-myc frequently occurs during development of B- and T- cell lymphomas. Both spontaneous and MNU-induced lymphomas showed increased c-myc transcript levels. Increased c-myc transcription was first detected at 6 weeks post-MNU, and persisted throughout the latent period. However, untreated animals showed no increases in c-myc transcripts at the time intervals examined. Another nuclear oncogene, c-fos, did not display a similar change in RNA transcription during the latent period.^ These results supports the hypothesis that MNU-induced and spontaneous tumors develop by multi-step pathways which are distinct with respect to the target cell population affected. Clonal emergence and c-myc deregulation are important steps in the development of both MNU-induced and spontaneous tumors, but the onset of these events is later in spontaneous tumor development. ^

Models of DNA sequence evolution

Models of DNA sequence evolution and methods for estimating evolutionary distances are needed for studying the rate and pattern of molecular evolution and for inferring the evolutionary relationships of organisms or genes. In this dissertation, several new models and methods are developed.^ The rate variation among nucleotide sites: To obtain unbiased estimates of evolutionary distances, the rate heterogeneity among nucleotide sites of a gene should be considered. Commonly, it is assumed that the substitution rate varies among sites according to a gamma distribution (gamma model) or, more generally, an invariant+gamma model which includes some invariable sites. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach was developed for estimating the shape parameter of the gamma distribution $(\alpha)$ and/or the proportion of invariable sites $(\theta).$ Computer simulation showed that (1) under the gamma model, $\alpha$ can be well estimated from 3 or 4 sequences if the sequence length is long; and (2) the distance estimate is unbiased and robust against violations of the assumptions of the invariant+gamma model.^ However, this ML method requires a huge amount of computational time and is useful only for less than 6 sequences. Therefore, I developed a fast method for estimating $\alpha,$ which is easy to implement and requires no knowledge of tree. A computer program was developed for estimating $\alpha$ and evolutionary distances, which can handle the number of sequences as large as 30.^ Evolutionary distances under the stationary, time-reversible (SR) model: The SR model is a general model of nucleotide substitution, which assumes (i) stationary nucleotide frequencies and (ii) time-reversibility. It can be extended to SRV model which allows rate variation among sites. I developed a method for estimating the distance under the SR or SRV model, as well as the variance-covariance matrix of distances. Computer simulation showed that the SR method is better than a simpler method when the sequence length $L>1,000$ bp and is robust against deviations from time-reversibility. As expected, when the rate varies among sites, the SRV method is much better than the SR method.^ The evolutionary distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies: The statistical properties of the paralinear and LogDet distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies were studied. First, I developed formulas for correcting the estimation biases of the paralinear and LogDet distances. The performances of these formulas and the formulas for sampling variances were examined by computer simulation. Second, I developed a method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the paralinear distance, so that statistical tests of phylogenies can be conducted when the nucleotide frequencies are nonstationary. Third, a new method for testing the molecular clock hypothesis was developed in the nonstationary case. ^

Origin and evolution of reactive and noble gases dissolved in matrix pore water

Reactive and noble gases dissolved in matrix pore water of low permeable crystalline bedrock were successfully extracted and characterized for the fist time based on drillcore samples from the Olkiluoto investigation site (SW Finland). Interaction between matrix pore water and fracture groundwater occurs predominately by diffusion. Changes in the chemical and isotopic composition of gases dissolved in fracture groundwater are transmitted and preserved in the pore water. Absolute concentrations, their ratios and the stable carbon isotope signature of hydrocarbon gases dissolved in pore water give valuable indications about the evolution of these gases in the nearby-flowing fracture groundwaters. Inert noble gases dissolved in matrix pore water and their isotopes combined with their in-situ production and accumulation rates deliver information about the residence time of pore water.

Cultural Diversity as a Concept of Global Law : Origins, Evolution and Prospects

“Cultural diversity” has become one of the latest buzzwords on the international policymaking scene. It is employed in various contexts – sometimes as a term close to “biological diversity”, at other times as correlated to the “exception culturelle” and most often, as a generic concept that is mobilised to counter the perceived negative effects of economic globalisation. While no one has yet provided a precise definition of what cultural diversity is, what we can observe is the emergence of the notion of cultural diversity as incorporating a distinct set of policy objectives and choices at the global level. These decisions are not confined, as one might have expected, to cultural policymaking, but rather spill over to multiple governance domains because of the complex linkages inherent to the simultaneous pursuit of economic and other societal goals that cultural diversity encompasses and has effects on. Accounting for these intricate interdependencies, the present article clarifies the origins of the concept of cultural diversity as understood in global law and traces its evolution over time. Observing the dynamics of the concept and the surrounding political and legal developments, the article explores its justification and overall impact on the global legal regime, as well as its discrete effects on different domains of policymaking, such as media, intellectual property and culture. While the analysis is legal in essence, the article is meant to speak also to a broader transdisciplinary public. The article is part of the speacial issue on ethnic diversity and cultural pluralism, which is available under the creative commons licence: http://www.mdpi.com/journal/diversity/special_issues/ethnic-diversity/.

The Trade Versus Culture Discourse: Tracing its Evolution in Global Law

The intensified flows of goods, services, peoples and ideas across borders intrinsic to globalization have had numerous and multi-faceted effects. Those affecting culture have been perhaps the most controversial, as it is more often than not difficult to identify the spill-overs across economic and non-economic areas and across borders, as it is equally hard to qualify the effects of these spill-overs as positive or negative. The debate also tends to be politically and even emotionally charged, which has so far not proven advantageous to establishing a genuine dialogue, nor to finding solutions. This contention and the divergent interests of major players in the international community have been reflected in the institutions and rules of global law. It is the objective of this chapter to explore this institutional architecture, in particular its main (and opposing) constituent fora of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Educational Social and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The chapter traces the evolution of these institutions and their interaction over time, as well as the underlying objectives, demands and strategies of the key proponents in the trade versus culture discourse, which ultimately shaped the existent law and policy. The chapter concludes with an appraisal of the present state of affairs situating the discussion into the contemporary global governance landscape.

A Wavelet Analysis of Pliopleistocene Climate Indicators: A New View of Periodicity Evolution

Wavelet analysis offers an alternative to Fourier based time-series analysis, and is particularly useful when the amplitudes and periods of dominant cycles are time dependent. We analyse climatic records derived from oxygen isotopic ratios of marine sediment cores with modified Morlet wavelets. We use a normalization of the Morlet wavelets which allows direct correspondence with Fourier analysis. This provides a direct view of the oscillations at various frequencies, and illustrates the nature of the time-dependence of the dominant cycles.

Landscape Evolution of the Dry Valleys, Transantarctic Mountains: Tectonic Implications

There are different views about the amount and timing of surface uplift in the Transantarctic Mountains and the geophysical mechanisms involved. Our new interpretation of the landscape evolution and tectonic history of the Dry Valleys area of the Transantarctic Mountains is based on geomorphic mapping of an area of 10,000 km(2). The landforms are dated mainly by their association with volcanic ashes and glaciomarine deposits and this permits a reconstruction of the stages and timing of landscape evolution. Following a lowering of base level about 55 m.y. ago, there was a phase of rapid denudation associated with planation and escarpment retreat, probably under semiarid conditions. Eventually, downcutting by rivers, aided in places by glaciers, graded valleys to near present sea level. The main valleys were flooded by the sea in the Miocene during a phase of subsidence before experiencing a final stage of modest upwarping near the coast. There has been remarkably little landform change under the stable, cold, polar conditions of the last 15 m.y. It is difficult to explain the Sirius Group deposits, which occur at high elevations in the area, if they are Pliocene in age. Overall, denudation may have removed a wedge of rock with a thickness of over 4 km at the coast declining to 1 km at a point 75 km inland, which is in good agreement with the results of existing apatite fission track analyses. It is suggested that denudation reflects the differences in base level caused by high elevation at the time of extension due to underplating and the subsequent role of thermal uplift and flexural isostasy. Most crustal uplift (2-4 km) is inferred to have occurred in the early Cenozoic with 400 m of subsidence in the Miocene followed by 300 m of uplift in the Pliocene.

Hide-and-seek in vegetation: time-to-detection is an efficient design for estimating detectability and occurrence

Ecology and conservation require reliable data on the occurrence of animals and plants. A major source of bias is imperfect detection, which, however, can be corrected for by estimation of detectability. In traditional occupancy models, this requires repeat or multi-observer surveys. Recently, time-to-detection models have been developed as a cost-effective alternative, which requires no repeat surveys and hence costs could be halved. We compared the efficiency and reliability of time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models under varying survey effort. Two observers independently searched for 17 plant species in 44100m(2) Swiss grassland quadrats and recorded the time-to-detection for each species, enabling detectability to be estimated with both time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models. In addition, we gauged the relative influence on detectability of species, observer, plant height and two measures of abundance (cover and frequency). Estimates of detectability and occupancy under both models were very similar. Rare species were more likely to be overlooked; detectability was strongly affected by abundance. As a measure of abundance, frequency outperformed cover in its predictive power. The two observers differed significantly in their detection ability. Time-to-detection models were as accurate as traditional occupancy models, but their data easier to obtain; thus they provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional occupancy models for detection-corrected estimation of occurrence.

Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate

Modeling of future water systems at the regional scale is a difficult task due to the complexity of current structures (multiple competing water uses, multiple actors, formal and informal rules) both temporally and spatially. Representing this complexity in the modeling process is a challenge that can be addressed by an interdisciplinary and holistic approach. The assessment of the water system of the Crans-Montana-Sierre area (Switzerland) and its evolution until 2050 were tackled by combining glaciological, hydrogeological, and hydrological measurements and modeling with the evaluation of water use through documentary, statistical and interview-based analyses. Four visions of future regional development were co-produced with a group of stakeholders and were then used as a basis for estimating future water demand. The comparison of the available water resource and the water demand at monthly time scale allowed us to conclude that for the four scenarios socioeconomic factors will impact on the future water systems more than climatic factors. An analysis of the sustainability of the current and future water systems based on four visions of regional development allowed us to identify those scenarios that will be more sustainable and that should be adopted by the decision-makers. The results were then presented to the stakeholders through five key messages. The challenges of communicating the results in such a way with stakeholders are discussed at the end of the article.

Eco-Evolutionary Spatial Dynamics. Rapid Evolution and Isolation Explain Food Web Persistence

One of the current challenges in evolutionary ecology is understanding the long-term persistence of contemporary-evolving predator–prey interactions across space and time. To address this, we developed an extension of a multi-locus, multi-trait eco-evolutionary individual-based model that incorporates several interacting species in explicit landscapes. We simulated eco-evolutionary dynamics of multiple species food webs with different degrees of connectance across soil-moisture islands. A broad set of parameter combinations led to the local extinction of species, but some species persisted, and this was associated with (1) high connectance and omnivory and (2) ongoing evolution, due to multi-trait genetic variability of the embedded species. Furthermore, persistence was highest at intermediate island distances, likely because of a balance between predation-induced extinction (strongest at short island distances) and the coupling of island diversity by top predators, which by travelling among islands exert global top-down control of biodiversity. In the simulations with high genetic variation, we also found widespread trait evolutionary changes indicative of eco-evolutionary dynamics. We discuss how the ever-increasing computing power and high-resolution data availability will soon allow researchers to start bridging the in vivo–in silico gap.

Temporal evolution of strut light intensity after implantation of bioresorbable polymeric intracoronary scaffolds in the ABSORB cohort B trial-an application of a new quantitative method based on optical coherence tomography.

BACKGROUND Quantitative light intensity analysis of the strut core by optical coherence tomography (OCT) may enable assessment of changes in the light reflectivity of the bioresorbable polymeric scaffold from polymer to provisional matrix and connective tissues, with full disappearance and integration of the scaffold into the vessel wall. The aim of this report was to describe the methodology and to apply it to serial human OCT images post procedure and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months in the ABSORB cohort B trial. METHODS AND RESULTS In serial frequency-domain OCT pullbacks, corresponding struts at different time points were identified by 3-dimensional foldout view. The peak and median values of light intensity were measured in the strut core by dedicated software. A total of 303 corresponding struts were serially analyzed at 3 time points. In the sequential analysis, peak light intensity increased gradually in the first 24 months after implantation and reached a plateau (relative difference with respect to baseline [%Dif]: 61.4% at 12 months, 115.0% at 24 months, 110.7% at 36 months), while the median intensity kept increasing at 36 months (%Dif: 14.3% at 12 months, 75.0% at 24 months, 93.1% at 36 months). CONCLUSIONS Quantitative light intensity analysis by OCT was capable of detecting subtle changes in the bioresorbable strut appearance over time, and could be used to monitor the bioresorption and integration process of polylactide struts.

Evolution of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)

In 2009, a monitoring survey on the prevalence and genetic diversity of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in slaughter pigs in Switzerland was started and revealed the presence of an unusual Multi Locus Sequence Type (ST49), which was detected for the first time in slaughter pigs worldwide. In addition to ST49, pigs also harboured ST398 and ST1. The prevalence of MRSA in slaughter pigs in Switzerland increased from 2.0% (95%CI 0.9-3.9) in 2009 to 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-8.7) in 2010, and remained stable in 2011 with 5,6% (95% CI 3.6-8.4). The increase was mainly due to the spread of ST398-t034, whereas ST49 was less frequently detected in 2010 and 2011. The presence of a specific sequence type (ST49) in MRSA from Switzerland suggests that it has been selected in local pig husbandry. However, MRSA of this lineage seems to have a lower potential for dissemination than ST398, which is increasingly detected in Swissslaughter pigs.