Polarization in the chilean party system: changes and continuities, 1990-1999

The focus of this thesis is the evolution of programmatic polarization in the post-authoritarian Chilean party system at the elite level. It shows the distance/proximity between parties located along the left-right ideological continuum on three sets of issues. The paper demonstrates that important changes have taken place in the meaning of the right and, especially, left poles. This implies convergence on socio-economic issues between parties, but persistence of differences on religious-value issues, and on issues related to the authoritarian/democratic cleavage. Distance between the poles has been reduced, and as a result the center has lost its own political space. In addition, the paper shows that the pattern followed by programmatic polarization at the elite level is explained by the authoritarian experience, the institutional framework, and socio-economic transformations. Together with this factors, the degree of negotiability of the issues and the cross-cutting nature of the cleavages have also shaped polarization.

The third order Melnikov function of a quadratic center under quadratic perturbation

We study quadratic perturbations of the integrable system (1+x)dH; where H =(x²+y²)=2: We prove that the first three Melnikov functions associated to the perturbed system give rise at most to three limit cycles.

The Key party in the catalan government

This paper analyzes the different compositions of the catalan governing coalitions during the current democratic period, and offers some predictions about the coalitions that can be expected in the future. During this period, in catalan politics, there have been two main political issues over which the different parties have taken positions: rightist versus leftist with respect to economic policy, and sovereign versus centralist with respect to the power distribution within the state. I find that for any allocation of parliament seats there is a key party: a party that has a clear advantage in terms of being able to decide the composition of the governing coalition. I show the features that allow a party to become the key party and those that affect the size of the advantage of the key party.

Dynamics of the third order Lyness' difference equation

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt"

Fiscal insurance and debt management in OECD economies

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by variations in debt issuance? We consider these questions using OECD data on the market value of government debt between 1970 and 2000. Motivated by both the optimal taxation literature and broad considerations of debt stability we propose a range of performance indicators for debt management. We evaluate these using Monte Carlo analysis and find that those based on the relative persistence of debt perform best. Calculating these measures for OECD data provides only limited evidence that debt management has helped insulate policy against unexpected fiscal shocks. We also find that the degree of fiscal insurance achieved is not well connected to cross country variations in debt issuance patterns. Given the limited volatility observed in the yield curve the relatively small dispersion of debt management practices across countries makes little difference to the realised degree of fiscal insurance.

Third contribution to the knowledge of the Raviniini (Diptera, Sarcophagidae), based on observations of the larvae, using scanning electron microscope

L1, L2 and L3 of Oxysarcodexia paulistanensis (Mattos), L3 of O. confusa Lopes, L2 of Ravinia belforti (Prado & Fonseca) and L2 of Oxyvinia excisa (Lopes) were described and figured using scanning electron microscope.

El Derecho norteamericano como impulsor de la responsabilidad civil del fabricante por productos defectuosos

Investigación elaborada a partir de una estancia en la Columbia Law School of New York, Estados Unidos, entre los meses de septiembre y noviembre del 2006. El Derecho comunitario europeo y español regulan la reparación de los daños causados por el uso o la proximidad de un producto defectuoso mediante gracias al impulso ideológico ejercido por la jurisprudencia norteamericana. El principio de responsabilidad objetiva rector de la directiva europea es fruto de un transfondo operado en los Estados Unidos en los años sesenta, coincidiendo con la revolución tecnològica y el inicio de la producción y del consumo masivos. Tales fenómenos suscitaron la búsqueda de mecanismos jurídicos aptos para canalizar la reparación de los daños inherentes a las actividades industriales tecnológicamente avanzadas. Su principal efecto fue la preocupación por una más justa distribución social de los llamados “costes del progreso”, preocupación que, jurídicamente, desembocó en la solución de la responsabilidad aun sin culpa del fabricante por los daños derivados de su producción industrial. El mérito de tal solución corresponde a determinados teóricos norteamericanos de la responsabilidad empresarial, quienes, inspirándose en ideas formuladas a inicios del siglo XX por los especialistas en Derecho laboral, concluyeron que es la empresa productora quien está en mejor situación de soportar el coste del accidente industrial: al imponerse al fabricante una responsabildad desvinculada de su eventual culpa en la causación del accidente, repercutirá en el precio de sus productos el coste del seguro de responsabilidad civil que se verá abocado a contratar para hacer frente a su responsabilidad objetiva o por riesgo, de manera que el coste de los accidentes acabará siendo soportado por el público consumidor al pagar el sobreprecio de los productos que adquiere. Las repercusiones de tal construcción han sido tanto normativas como judiciales.

A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

The use of mannan antigen and anti-mannan antibodies in the diagnosis of invasive candidiasis: recommendations from the Third European Conference on Infections in Leukemia.

INTRODUCTION: Timely diagnosis of invasive candidiasis (IC) remains difficult as the clinical presentation is not specific and blood cultures lack sensitivity and need a long incubation time. Thus, non-culture-based methods for diagnosing IC have been developed. Mannan antigen (Mn) and anti-mannan antibodies (A-Mn) are present in patients with IC. On behalf of the Third European Conference on Infections in Leukemia, the performance of these tests was analysed and reviewed. METHODS: The literature was searched for studies using the commercially available sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Platelia™, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Marnes-la-Coquette, France) for detecting Mn and A-Mn in serum. The target condition of this review was IC defined according to 2008 European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group criteria. Sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) were calculated for Mn, A-Mn and combined Mn/A-Mn testing. RESULTS: Overall, 14 studies that comprised 453 patients and 767 controls were reviewed. The patient populations included in the studies were mainly haematological and cancer cases in seven studies and mainly intensive care unit and surgery cases in the other seven studies. All studies but one were retrospective in design. Mn sensitivity was 58% (95% confidence interval [CI], 53-62); specificity, 93% (95% CI, 91-94) and DOR, 18 (95% CI 12-28). A-Mn sensitivity was 59% (95% CI, 54-65); specificity, 83% (95% CI, 79-97) and DOR, 12 (95% CI 7-21). Combined Mn/A-Mn sensitivity was 83% (95% CI, 79-87); specificity, 86% (95% CI, 82-90) and DOR, 58 (95% CI 27-122). Significant heterogeneity of the studies was detected. The sensitivity of both Mn and A-Mn varied for different Candida species, and it was the highest for C. albicans, followed by C. glabrata and C. tropicalis. In 73% of 45 patients with candidemia, at least one of the serological tests was positive before the culture results, with mean time advantage being 6 days for Mn and 7 days for A-Mn. In 21 patients with hepatosplenic IC, 18 (86%) had Mn or A-Mn positive test results at a median of 16 days before radiological detection of liver or spleen lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Mn and A-Mn are useful for diagnosis of IC. The performance of combined Mn/A-Mn testing is superior to either Mn or A-Mn testing.

Changes in the demand for private medical insurance following a shift in tax incentives

The 1998 Spanish reform of the Personal Income Tax eliminated the 15% deduction for private medical expenditures including payments on private health insurance (PHI) policies. To avoid an undesirable increase in the demand for publicly funded health care, tax incentives to buy PHI were not completely removed but basically shifted from individual to group employer-paid policies. In a unique fiscal experiment, at the same time that the tax relief for individually purchased policies was abolished, the government provided for tax allowances on policies taken out through employment. Using a bivariate probit model on data from National Health Surveys, we estimate the impact of said reform on the demand for PHI and the changes occurred within it. Our findings suggest that the total probability of buying PHI was not significantly affected. Indeed, the fall in the demand for individual policies (by 10% between 1997 and 2001) was offset by an increase in the demand for group employer-paid ones, so that the overall size of the market remained virtually unchanged. We also briefly discuss the welfare effects on the state budget, the industry and society at large.