CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN VULNERABLE CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MGETA, TANZANIA

Increased occurrence of drought and dry spells during the growing season have resulted in increased interest in protection of tropical water catchment areas. In Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania, water used for vegetable and fruit production is provided through canals from the Uluguru South Forest Reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes in the area is causing severe land degradation, which is threatening the water catchment area, livelihoods, and food security of the local communities, as well as the major population centers in the lowlands. In this paper, the economic performance of a traditional cropping-livestock system with East African (EA)-goats and pigs and extensive vegetable production is compared with a more sustainable and environmentally friendly crop-dairy goat production system. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income considering the environmental constraints in the area was applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system. The model was worked out for the rainy and dry seasons and the analysis was conducted for a basic scenario representing the current situation, based on the variability in the 30 years period from 1982-2012, and in a scenario of both lower crop yields and increased crop variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a sample of 60 farmers that were interviewed using a questionnaire was used to develop and parameterize the model. The study found that in the steep slopes of the area, a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and multipurpose trees (MPTs) would do better than the traditional vegetable gardening with the EA goat production system. The crop-dairy goat system was superior both in the basic and in a climate change scenario since the yield variation of the grass and MPTs system was less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the use of perennial grasses. However, the goat milk production in the area was constrained by inadequate feeding and lack of an appropriate breeding program. Hence, farmers should enhance goat milk production by supplementing with more concentrate feed and by implementing goat-breeding principles. Moreover, policy measures to promote such a development are briefly discussed.

Aproximación al desarrollo de un sistema de transporte masivo a través de la dinámica de sistemas

El porvenir social y económico de una ciudad depende, en gran medida, de la eficiencia de su sistema de transporte; esto se ve reflejado en la capacidad de transportar personas y bienes de una forma sostenible, con los recursos disponibles. En la actualidad se encuentran en desarrollo sistemas de transporte masivo tipo Bus Rapid Transit [BRT] en siete ciudades colombianas, situación que genera la necesidad de dar seguimiento a su progreso y al crecimiento de su participación en la demanda de viajes unipersonales. El siguiente trabajo busca, a través de una simulación en dinámica de sistemas, describir el desarrollo de un sistema de transporte masivo, con el fin de otorgar una visión acerca del impacto de los parámetros operativos y la reinversión en el sistema y en el desarrollo e incremento de su demanda. Se plantean tres escenarios para evaluar diferentes políticas operativas y de reinversión en el sistema, analizando el comportamiento en su desarrollo.

Modeling the Effect of Vapor Wall Deposition on the Formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol in Chamber Studies

Laboratory chamber experiments are used to investigate formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from biogenic and anthropogenic precursors under a variety of environmental conditions. Simulations of these experiments test our understanding of the prevailing chemistry of SOA formation as well as the dynamic processes occurring in the chamber itself. One dynamic process occurring in the chamber that was only recently recognized is the deposition of vapor species to the Teflon walls of the chamber. Low-volatility products formed from the oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) deposit on the walls rather than forming SOA, decreasing the amount of SOA formed (quantified as the SOA yield: mass of SOA formed per mass of VOC reacted). In this work, several modeling studies are presented that address the effect of vapor wall deposition on SOA formation in chambers.

A coupled vapor-particle dynamics model is used to examine the competition among the rates of gas-phase oxidation to low volatility products, wall deposition of these products, and mass transfer to the particle phase. The relative time scales of these rates control the amount of SOA formed by affecting the influence of vapor wall deposition. Simulations show that an effect on SOA yield of changing the vapor-particle mass transfer rate is only observed when SOA formation is kinetically limited. For systems with kinetically limited SOA formation, increasing the rate of vapor-particle mass transfer by increasing the concentration of seed particles is an effective way to minimize the effect of vapor wall deposition.

This coupled vapor-particle dynamics model is then applied to α-pinene ozonolysis SOA experiments. Experiments show that the SOA yield is affected when changing the oxidation rate but not when changing the rate of gas-particle mass transfer by changing the concentration of seed particles. Model simulations show that the absence of an effect of changing the seed particle concentration is consistent with SOA formation being governed by quasi-equilibrium growth, in which gas-particle equilibrium is established much faster than the rate of change of the gas-phase concentration. The observed effect of oxidation rate on SOA yield arises due to the presence of vapor wall deposition: gas-phase oxidation products are produced more quickly and condense preferentially onto seed particles before being lost to the walls. Therefore, for α-pinene ozonolysis, increasing the oxidation rate is the most effective way to mitigate the influence of vapor wall deposition.

Finally, the detailed model GECKO-A (Generator for Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere) is used to simulate α-pinene photooxidation SOA experiments. Unexpectedly, α-pinene OH oxidation experiments show no effect when changing either the oxidation rate or the vapor-particle mass transfer rate, whereas GECKO-A predicts that changing the oxidation rate should drastically affect the SOA yield. Sensitivity studies show that the assumed magnitude of the vapor wall deposition rate can greatly affect conclusions drawn from comparisons between simulations and experiments. If vapor wall loss in the Caltech chamber is of order 10^-5 s^-1, GECKO-A greatly overpredicts SOA during high UV experiments, likely due to an overprediction of second-generation products. However, if instead vapor wall loss in the Caltech chamber is of order 10^-3 s^-1, GECKO-A greatly underpredicts SOA during low UV experiments, possibly due to missing autoxidation pathways in the α-pinene mechanism.

Development of Physics-based Models and Design Optimization of Power Electronic Conversion Systems

The main objective for physics based modeling of the power converter components is to design the whole converter with respect to physical and operational constraints. Therefore, all the elements and components of the energy conversion system are modeled numerically and combined together to achieve the whole system behavioral model. Previously proposed high frequency (HF) models of power converters are based on circuit models that are only related to the parasitic inner parameters of the power devices and the connections between the components. This dissertation aims to obtain appropriate physics-based models for power conversion systems, which not only can represent the steady state behavior of the components, but also can predict their high frequency characteristics. The developed physics-based model would represent the physical device with a high level of accuracy in predicting its operating condition. The proposed physics-based model enables us to accurately develop components such as; effective EMI filters, switching algorithms and circuit topologies [7]. One of the applications of the developed modeling technique is design of new sets of topologies for high-frequency, high efficiency converters for variable speed drives. The main advantage of the modeling method, presented in this dissertation, is the practical design of an inverter for high power applications with the ability to overcome the blocking voltage limitations of available power semiconductor devices. Another advantage is selection of the best matching topology with inherent reduction of switching losses which can be utilized to improve the overall efficiency. The physics-based modeling approach, in this dissertation, makes it possible to design any power electronic conversion system to meet electromagnetic standards and design constraints. This includes physical characteristics such as; decreasing the size and weight of the package, optimized interactions with the neighboring components and higher power density. In addition, the electromagnetic behaviors and signatures can be evaluated including the study of conducted and radiated EMI interactions in addition to the design of attenuation measures and enclosures.

Modelos de sustentabilidade de empresas do setor petroquímico baseados no modelo orientado para a representação do pensamento humano

O objetivo desta pesquisa é descrever o conhecimento divulgado sobre sustentabilidade de um grupo de empresas do setor petroquímico. Para a estruturação dos modelos de gestão das empresas, foi utilizado o Modelo Orientado para a Representação do Pensamento Humano, MORPH. Foi realizada uma pesquisa descritiva de modelos de empresas representados por frames, com regras de extração para definição dos critérios e dos objetos. Para efeito de comparação, foram escolhidas três empresas de um mesmo setor, o Petroquímico. As quais fazem parte de um programa que compartilha projetos de sustentabilidade, o Programa Em Boa Companhia da BM&F BOVESPA. Foram extraídos objetos qualitativos de sustentabilidade, comparando, quantitativamente, com os lucros das empresas. Dentre os principais resultados, observou-se de 2011 a 2012 que a Braskem teve prejuízo, enquanto que a Comgas teve lucro, sendo a partir de ambos foi extraída a mesma quantidade de objetos. Dentre as três empresas, é analisado que a Ultrapar tem o maior lucro e mais objetos que divulgam o interesse sobre sustentabilidade.

Étude de la dynamique du ferrofluide appliquée sur une surface générée par plusieurs actionneurs

Le sujet de cette thèse est la caractérisation dynamique d’une surface générée par plusieurs actionneurs d’un miroir ferrofluidique intégré dans un montage d’optique adaptative. Elle conclut un projet de doctorat au sein du groupe Borra s’étant échelonné sur 4 années. Un bref portrait général de l’optique adaptative est d’abord présenté, suivi d’une section sur la théorie du contrôle. Les types de contrôleurs y sont abordés, soit PID et surcharge. L’effet de la viscosité sur la réponse dynamique du système, ainsi que les analyseurs de front d’onde utilisés sont ensuite expliqués. La section résultats est subdivisée en plusieurs sous-sections ordonnées de façon chronologique. Dans un premier temps, il est question des résultats obtenus dans le cadre d’une caractérisation d’un nouveau miroir de 91 actionneurs fabriqué au sein du groupe. Il est ensuite question des résultats obtenus avec diverses techniques telles le PSD et l’imagerie déclenchée. Il y aura toute une section sur les résultats en vitesse, en fonction de la viscosité du liquide, suivie d’une section sur les simulations réalisées avec Simulink afin de bien cibler les limites du système. Les résultats portant sur la technique de surcharge des actionneurs seront ensuite présentés avec des projections futures. La dernière partie de cette thèse portera sur une innovation apportée par un autre membre du groupe. Nous parlerons de la déposition d’une membrane élastomère réfléchissante et de ses effets sur la dynamique du système.

Análisis sobre la destrucción y creación de valor dentro del sector de la salud en Bogotá

Una de las maneras que existen para lograr niveles de ingreso mayores y a su vez incrementar las posibilidades de perdurabilidad de las empresas es la generación de valor, el cual permite que las compañías tengan la capacidad de adaptarse a su entorno y así sacar provecho del mismo. Sin embargo, son pocas las herramientas con las que dichas empresas cuentan para determinar de manera efectiva la creación o destrucción de valor que se genera a través del tiempo. El presente proyecto tiene como fin utilizar la herramienta del Valor Económico Agregado (EVA, por sus siglas en inglés) para analizar específicamente la creación de valor en un periodo de cinco años en el sector de la salud en Bogotá, tomando como base de investigación los hospitales pertenecientes al nivel III de atención dentro del total de la red hospitalaria de la capital del país. De igual manera, el análisis permitirá realizar proyecciones acerca de la creación de valor, cuyos resultados serán utilizados como base para evaluar estrategias que permitan a las empresas de este sector mantener dicho valor a través del tiempo o revertir una situación desfavorable en el caso que los resultados arrojados evidencien una destrucción de valor dentro de las instituciones prestadoras de salud. Para llegar a comprender el alcance de estos resultados, este proyecto explicará en qué consiste el valor, cómo se mide en las empresas y la viabilidad y aplicación de estas medidas en el caso específico de las sociedades colombianas pertenecientes al sector de la salud.

Assessing the role of small farms in sustainable Food and Nutrition Security: What to consider t what scale?,

The AgroMed International Conference 2016 aims to discuss the current land use changes, with a particular interest on farm and land system dynamics, also considering the possible competition with other uses (urban and/or natural land uses). It is focused on “Farm and land system dynamics in the Mediterranean basin: integrating spatial scales, from the local to the global one”. Teresa Pinto Correia presented H2020 project SALSA “Small farms, small food businesses and sustainable food security”

Molecular Dynamics Investigation of Structure and Transport in the K2O-2SiO2 System Using a Partial Charge Based Model Potential

Potassium disilicate glass and melt have been investigated by using a new partial charge based potential model in which nonbridging oxygens are differentiated from bridging oxygens by their charges. The model reproduces the structural data pertaining to the coordination polyhedra around potassium and the various bond angle distributions excellently. The dynamics of the glass has been studied by using space and time correlation functions. It is found that K ions migrate by a diffusive mechanism in the melt and by hops below the glass transition temperature. They are also found to migrate largely through nonbridging oxygenrich sites in the silicate matrix, thus providing support to the predictions of the modified random network model.

Molecular dynamics Investigation of structure and transport in the K2O-2SiO2 system using a partial charge based model potential

Potassium disilicate glass and melt have been investigated by using anew partial charge based potential model in which nonbridging oxygens are differentiated from bridging oxygens by their charges. The model reproduces the structural data pertaining to the coordination polyhedra around potassium and the various bond angle distributions excellently. The dynamics of the glass has been studied by using space and time correlation functions. It is found that K ions migrate by a diffusive mechanism in the melt and by hops below the glass transition temperature. They are also found to migrate largely through nonbridging oxygen-rich sites in the silicate matrix, thus providing support to the predictions of the modified random network model.

Influence of system size on spatiotemporal dynamics of a model for plastic instability: Projecting low-dimensional and extensive chaos

This work is a continuation of our efforts to quantify the irregular scalar stress signals from the Ananthakrishna model for the Portevin-Le Chatelier instability observed under constant strain rate deformation conditions. Stress related to the spatial average of the dislocation activity is a dynamical variable that also determines the time evolution of dislocation densities. We carry out detailed investigations on the nature of spatiotemporal patterns of the model realized in the form of different types of dislocation bands seen in the entire instability domain and establish their connection to the nature of stress serrations. We then characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of the model equations by computing the Lyapunov dimension as a function of the drive parameter. The latter scales with the system size only for low strain rates, where isolated dislocation bands are seen, and at high strain rates, where fully propagating bands are seen. At intermediate applied strain rates corresponding to the partially propagating bands, the Lyapunov dimension exhibits two distinct slopes, one for small system sizes and another for large. This feature is rationalized by demonstrating that the spatiotemporal patterns for small system sizes are altered from the partially propagating band types to isolated burst type. This in turn allows us to reconfirm that low-dimensional chaos is projected from the stress signals as long as there is a one-to-one correspondence between the bursts of dislocation bands and the stress drops. We then show that the stress signals in the regime of partially to fully propagative bands have features of extensive chaos by calculating the correlation dimension density. We also show that the correlation dimension density also depends on the system size. A number of issues related to the system size dependence of the Lyapunov dimension density and the correlation dimension density are discussed.

German Eel Model (GEM II) for describing eel, Anguilla anguilla (L.), stock dynamics in the river Elbe system

The eel, Anguilla anguilla (L.), stock of the river Elbe severely decreased during the last decades. Detailed knowledge of the stock dynamics in freshwater and especially of the impact factors is necessary to take effective measures for stock conservation and improvement. The dynamics of the eel stock are modelled based on immigration, stocking, natural mortality and mortalities caused by fishing, angling, cormorants and hydropower plants. The model estimates the number of emigrating eel. Moreover, it enables to study the sensitivity of the estimates related to the uncertainty of the source data of the different influencing factors. The model may be used to develop management strategies and to assess the effi ciency of different management options. Zusammenfassung Der Aalbestand im Elbesystem ist in den letzten Jahrzehnten stark zur

On nonlinear dynamics behavior and control of a new model of a magnetically levitated vibrating system, excited by an unbalanced DC motor of limited power supply

We analyze new results on a magnetically levitated body (a block including a magnet whose bottom pole is set in such a way as to repel the upper pole of a magnetic base) excited by a non-ideal energy source (an unbalanced electric motor of limited power supply). These new results are related to the jump phenomena and increase of power required of such sources near resonance are manifestations of a non-ideal system and they are referred as the Sommerfeld effect, which emulates an energy sink. In this work, we also discuss control strategies to be applied to this system, in resonance conditions, in order to decrease its vibration amplitude and avoiding this apparent energy sink.

Non-equilibrium molecular dynamics study of an amphiphilic model system

Diese Doktorarbeit untersucht das Verhalten von komplexenFluidenunter Scherung, insbesondere den Einfluss von Scherflüssenauf dieStrukturbildung.Dazu wird ein Modell dieser entworfen, welches imRahmen von Molekulardynamiksimulationen verwendet wird.Zunächst werden Gleichgewichtseigenschaften dieses Modellsuntersucht.Hierbei wird unter anderem die Lage desOrdnungs--Unordnungsübergangs von derisotropen zur lamellaren Phase der Dimere bestimmt.Der Einfluss von Scherflüssen auf diese lamellare Phase wirdnununtersucht und mit analytischen Theorien verglichen. Die Scherung einer parallelen lamellaren Phase ruft eineNeuausrichtung des Direktors in Flussrichtung hervor.Das verursacht eine Verminderung der Schichtdicke mitsteigender Scherrateund führt oberhalb eines Schwellwertes zu Ondulationen.Ein vergleichbares Verhalten wird auch in lamellarenSystemengefunden, an denen in Richtung des Direktors gezogen wird.Allerdings wird festgestellt, dass die Art der Bifurkationenin beidenFällen unterschiedlich ist.Unter Scherung wird ein Übergang von Lamellen parallelerAusrichtung zu senkrechter gefunden.Dabei wird beoachtet, dass die Scherspannung in senkrechterOrientierungniedriger als in der parallelen ist.Dies führt unter bestimmten Bedingungen zum Auftreten vonScherbändern, was auch in Simulationen beobachtet wird. Es ist gelungen mit einem einfachen Modell viele Apsekte desVerhalten vonkomplexen Fluiden wiederzugeben. Die Strukturbildung hängt offensichtlich nurbedingt von lokalen Eigenschaften der Moleküle ab.

Interpersonal pattern dynamics and adaptive behavior in multiagent neurobiological systems : conceptual model and data

Ecological dynamics characterizes adaptive behavior as an emergent, self-organizing property of interpersonal interactions in complex social systems. The authors conceptualize and investigate constraints on dynamics of decisions and actions in the multiagent system of team sports. They studied coadaptive interpersonal dynamics in rugby union to model potential control parameter and collective variable relations in attacker–defender dyads. A videogrammetry analysis revealed how some agents generated fluctuations by adapting displacement velocity to create phase transitions and destabilize dyadic subsystems near the try line. Agent interpersonal dynamics exhibited characteristics of chaotic attractors and informational constraints of rugby union boxed dyadic systems into a low dimensional attractor. Data suggests that decisions and actions of agents in sports teams may be characterized as emergent, self-organizing properties, governed by laws of dynamical systems at the ecological scale. Further research needs to generalize this conceptual model of adaptive behavior in performance to other multiagent populations.