Stochastic game theory: For playing games, not just for doing theory

Recent theoretical advances have dramatically increased the relevance of game theory for predicting human behavior in interactive situations. By relaxing the classical assumptions of perfect rationality and perfect foresight, we obtain much improved explanations of initial decisions, dynamic patterns of learning and adjustment, and equilibrium steady-state distributions.

Learning and recall of form discriminations during reversible cooling deactivation of ventral-posterior suprasylvian cortex in the cat.

Extrastriate visual cortex of the ventral-posterior suprasylvian gyrus (vPS cortex) of freely behaving cats was reversibly deactivated with cooling to determine its role in performance on a battery of simple or masked two-dimensional pattern discriminations, and three-dimensional object discriminations. Deactivation of vPS cortex by cooling profoundly impaired the ability of the cats to recall the difference between all previously learned pattern and object discriminations. However, the cats' ability to learn or relearn pattern and object discriminations while vPS was deactivated depended upon the nature of the pattern or object and the cats' prior level of exposure to them. During cooling of vPS cortex, the cats could neither learn the novel object discriminations nor relearn a highly familiar masked or partially occluded pattern discrimination, although they could relearn both the highly familiar object and simple pattern discriminations. These cooling-induced deficits resemble those induced by cooling of the topologically equivalent inferotemporal cortex of monkeys and provides evidence that the equivalent regions contribute to visual processing in similar ways.

Determining departure times in dynamic and stochastic maritime routing and scheduling problem

In maritime transportation, decisions are made in a dynamic setting where many aspects of the future are uncertain. However, most academic literature on maritime transportation considers static and deterministic routing and scheduling problems. This work addresses a gap in the literature on dynamic and stochastic maritime routing and scheduling problems, by focusing on the scheduling of departure times. Five simple strategies for setting departure times are considered, as well as a more advanced strategy which involves solving a mixed integer mathematical programming problem. The latter strategy is significantly better than the other methods, while adding only a small computational effort.

Improved solutions to dynamic and stochastic maritime pick-up and delivery problems using local search.

Heuristics for stochastic and dynamic vehicle routing problems are often kept relatively simple, in part due to the high computational burden resulting from having to consider stochastic information in some form. In this work, three existing heuristics are extended by three different local search variations: a first improvement descent using stochastic information, a tabu search using stochastic information when updating the incumbent solution, and a tabu search using stochastic information when selecting moves based on a list of moves determined through a proxy evaluation. In particular, the three local search variations are designed to utilize stochastic information in the form of sampled scenarios. The results indicate that adding local search using stochastic information to the existing heuristics can further reduce operating costs for shipping companies by 0.5–2 %. While the existing heuristics could produce structurally different solutions even when using similar stochastic information in the search, the appended local search methods seem able to make the final solutions more similar in structure.

Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional Long memory stochastic volatility models

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the statistical properties of the new model, suggest using the spectral likelihood estimation for long memory processes, and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the model to three exchange rate return series. Overall, the results of the out-of-sample forecasts show the adequacy of the new GLMSV model.

The SEIQS stochastic epidemic model with external source of infection

This paper deals with a stochastic epidemic model for computer viruses with latent and quarantine periods, and two sources of infection: internal and external. All sojourn times are considered random variables which are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. For this model extinction and hazard times are analyzed, giving results for their Laplace transforms and moments. The transient behavior is considered by studying the number of times that computers are susceptible, exposed, infectious and quarantined during a period of time (0, t] and results for their joint and marginal distributions, moments and cross moments are presented. In order to give light this analysis, some numerical examples are showed.

Stochastic choice analysis of tourism destinations

The analysis of tourist destination choice, defined by intra-country administrative units and by product types “coastal/inland and village/city”, permits the characterisation of tourist flow behaviour, which is fundamental for public planning and business management. In this study, we analyse the determinant factors of tourist destination choice, proposing various research hypotheses relative to the impact of destination attributes and the personal characteristics of tourists. The methodology applied estimates Nested and Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Models, which allow control over possible correlations among different destinations. The empirical application is realised in Spain on a sample of 3,781 individuals and allows us to conclude that prices, distance to the destination and personal motivations are determinants in destination choice.

Description of the ITER Tokamak Cooling Water System

In questa tesi ho inizialmente esposto cenni teorici sulle reazioni di fusione nucleare e le motivazioni che hanno spinto la comunità scientifica verso la ricerca di questa nuova fonte energetica. Ho descritto il progetto ITER nei suoi obiettivi e nei principi di funzionamento di un reattore di tipo Tokamak e di tutti i componenti principali dell'intero impianto. In primo piano, mi sono focalizzato sul sistema di raffreddamento primario ad acqua del Tokamak (TCWS), con una prima panoramica sui suoi sottosistemi descrivendo i loro obiettivi, quali asportazione di calore e sicurezza dell'impianto. Successivamente ho analizzato nello specifico i particolari tecnici dei principali sottosistemi quali i vari circuiti di asportazione primaria del calore (PHTS Loops) dei diversi componenti del Tokamak, il Vacuum Vessel, il First Wall Blanket, il Divertor e il Neutral Beam Injector; ho esaminato i processi di controllo della qualità e del volume del fluido refrigerante nei circuiti (CVCS); ed infine le funzioni e le caratteristiche dei sistemi di drenaggio e di riempimento dei circuiti con i propri serbatoi ordinari e di sicurezza, e del sistema di asciugatura del fluido refrigerante con le sue diverse modalità operative.

Coral communities exposed to differential large amplitude internal waves cooling and a severe heat stress in 2010 in the Andaman Sea

Tropical scleractinian corals are particularly vulnerable to global warming as elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) disrupt the delicate balance between the coral host and their algal endosymbionts, leading to symbiont expulsion, mass bleaching and mortality. While satellite sensing of SST has proven a good predictor of coral bleaching at the regional scale, there are large deviations in bleaching severity and mortality on the local scale, which are only poorly understood. Here, we show that internal waves play a major role in explaining local coral bleaching and mortality patterns in the Andaman Sea. In spite of a severe region-wide SST anomaly in May 2010, frequent upslope intrusions of cold sub-pycnocline waters due to breaking large amplitude internal waves (LAIW) alleviated heating and mitigated coral bleaching and mortality in shallow LAIW-exposed waters. In LAIW-sheltered waters, by contrast, bleaching susceptible species suffered severe bleaching and total mortality. These findings suggest that LAIW, which are ubiquitous in tropical stratified waters, benefit coral reefs during thermal stress and provide local refugia for bleaching susceptible corals. The swash zones of LAIW may thus be important, so far overlooked, conservation areas for the maintainance of coral diversity in a warming climate. The consideration of LAIW can significantly improve coral bleaching predictions and can provide a valuable tool for coral reef conservation and management.

Power plant cooling water chlorination in northern California /

Issued March 1978.

Cooling efficiency of different air velocities in hot environments /

Mode of access: Internet.