886 resultados para social processes - predictions
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The audiovisual as a tool for social change among youth in social exclusion situations in Guatemala (2004-2014)” is the title of this research paper which aims to study the organizations and projects that have worked with video tools and participatory methodology with young people in marginalized social sectors in order to improve their opportunities and social inclusion. The purpose of this study also includes the analysis of the finish video products as well as the impact of the projects on the youth participants. Guatemala is a country with deep rooted and historical social inequality. This situation is currently reflected by the high violence rates, the extreme poverty and the exclusion of populations, including youth. As social participants, young people have much to say about the construction of a future plan for the country, but they are not heard. That’s why it is so important to facilitate a youth voice and research the tools that can help reach that goal. The participatory methodologies are based on the popular education theories developed by the Latinamerican School with authors such as Paulo Freire, Juan Díaz Bordenave, Jesús Martín Barbero and Mario Kaplún, among others. These methodologies have proved to be a lateral way to face the educational process by promoting dialogue, analysis, consensus search and consciousness-raising. In addition, these methodologies provide a more democratic way to format educational processes that provide students tools to promote an active attitude towards social questions. They can develop their own role of responsibility in the improvement of their own lives and contribute to the progress of their community. This research is based on observation, an extensive bibliographical review, analysis protocols for the study of video materials and projects and closed structured interviews with facilitators and project coordinators. It includes open qualitative interviews with some selected participants and with other specialists in order to complete the necessary information to structure the historical, social and political context of Guatemala...
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Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.
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La migración española de la segunda mitad del siglo XX se ha caracterizado en un primer momento por su carácter masivo y poco cualificado, seguido por un interregno de procesos de retorno y finalmente por una migración estable, no masiva pero altamente cualificada. La atención prestada a la inmigración masiva que recibe España a finales del siglo XX relegó a un segundo plano esta emigración cualificada de españoles. En este artículo se considera la relación entre movilidad espacial (migración de españoles) y su posible consecuencia sobre la movilidad social ascendente que experimentan. Para ello se utilizan los datos procedentes de la encuesta internacional EIMSS (European Internal Migrations Social Survey) y los procedimientos de escalamiento de clase social basados en la ocupación de Goldthorpe. El análisis se complementa con una simulación sobre la movilidad de clase, con la finalidad de visualizar y comparar los efectos sobre la movilidad social de la emigración de españoles a Francia, Alemania, Italia y Gran Bretaña.
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Cuando un migrante llega a una sociedad distinta, debe elegir cómo vivir en ella. En esta elección cuentan su pasado, su presente y especialmente su futuro en términos de expectativas de movilidad. Comprender cómo viven los residentes extranjeros en su país de destino implica considerar conceptos clave como procesos de socialización, shock cultural, competencia intercultural o procesos de aculturación que implican aprender nuevas competencias culturales. A partir de los datos de la Encuesta Social de Migraciones Internas Europeas (EIMSS) este trabajo se centra en el análisis de dos dimensiones, la integración cultural y la integración social, que van a caracterizar el modo en que los migrantes europeos viven en su nuevo entorno social, y su relación con la percepción de la discriminación que tiene el migrante o su adaptación psicológica, en términos de nostalgia y satisfacción con la vida.
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Paper submitted to IRSES II Symposium, Kokaeli, Turkey, June 16-20, 2014.
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Current economic crisis together with the Internet revolution has had direct impacts on the franchise sector of Spain: in particular on its unique communication network. The aim of this research is to analyse how Spanish franchise companies have adapted to these changes through its corporate communications management. We want to determine whether the management of communications is ideal to the growth and consolidation of companies in the market. Corporate communications plans and organizational structures were analyzed to verify whether or not information technology (i.e. the use of the Internet) is maximized: the communications aspect being a critical area of company growth. We found that most franchise companies surveyed had adapted well to the changes in information technology, despite economic challenges. The Internet as a communications tool has been limited to its utility as a “bulletin board” for information. The marketing advantage of Internet communication, or its use as an avenue for customer exchange and exchange of goods and services has yet to be maximized. Future research may look into the details of how companies are able to maximize the communications-marketing advantage that Online/Internet can contribute to the franchise sector.
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Este trabajo profundiza en el potencial de la participación ciudadana como herramienta para el diagnóstico y planificación turística, así como fuente de conocimiento para el científico social. Se expone la metodología y principales resultados de un proceso participativo en un municipio turístico-residencial dirigido al diseño colaborado de propuestas de actuación a escala local. Este proceso ofreció un espacio para la reflexión ciudadana sobre las implicaciones del modelo turístico-urbanístico y sus posibilidades de futuro, y proporcionó un mecanismo para el acercamiento de las necesidades y opiniones ciudadanas a los procesos de planificación y toma de decisiones municipales. Además, a partir de un análisis de contenido de los documentos elaborados por los participantes, se demuestra la utilidad de la participación ciudadana como recurso de alta riqueza informativa para la investigación social en el ámbito del turismo.
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El pueblo romaní o gitano constituye la principal minoría étnica en España. Presente en el país desde hace más de 500 años, las estimaciones disponibles señalan que su población oscila entre 700.000 y 970.000 personas, lo cual supone entre el 1,5% y el 2,1% de la población total. Según diferentes informes publicados sobre sus condiciones de vida, el pueblo gitano sufre mayores niveles de exclusión social que el resto de la población.
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En este artículo analizamos el desarrollo de empresa social en España e Italia en el marco de la crisis económica y social, en términos de difusión y marco jurídico. De esta manera, definimos los confines del “ecosistema” de la empresa social en los dos países e identificamos elementos comunes y especifidades. La hipótesis es que la empresa social representa una herramienta de generación de respuestas proactivas a la crisis, impulsando trayectorias de innovación económica y social, y contribuyendo a un modelo de desarrollo económica y socialmente sostenible. La innovación surge de la capacidad de las empresas sociales de generar respuestas innovativas a demandas emergentes, de su capacidad de crear al mismo tiempo valor social y económico, de satisfacer necesidades individuales y colectivas, de activar dinámicas de cambio de medio y largo plazo, de estimular dinámicas de emprendimiento, de empoderamiento y de valorización en el territorio. Sin embargo, el carácter innovador de la empresa social no surge simplemente de una empresarializacción del Tercer Sector tradicional, y mucho menos como consecuencia de la transferencia de servicios fundamentales del estado a asociaciones, cooperativas y empresas sociales, si con eso se persigue el simple objetivo de reducción de los gastos públicos. Al contrario, detrás de la retórica de la innovación social se puedan esconder proyectos de reducción de los gastos de servicios a través de la reducción de los salarios y de la cualidad de los servicios. El artículo, a partir de la comparación de la difusión del fenómeno y de las perspectivas de desarrollo en España y en Italia, termina con una reflexión crítica sobre las luces y sombras, los riesgos y las oportunidades, relacionados con la difusión de la empresa social, o sea, de la integración de la acción solidaria y la acción económica en prácticas que son al mismo tiempo empresariales y con finalidades sociales.
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Este documento es un artículo inédito que ha sido aceptado para su publicación. Como un servicio a sus autores y lectores, Alternativas. Cuadernos de trabajo social proporciona online esta edición preliminar. El manuscrito puede sufrir alteraciones tras la edición y corrección de pruebas, antes de su publicación definitiva. Los posibles cambios no afectarán en ningún caso a la información contenida en esta hoja, ni a lo esencial del contenido del artículo.
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There has been very little research that has studied the capacities that can be fostered to mitigate the risk for involvement in electronic bullying or victimization and almost no research examining positive electronic behavior. The primary goal of this dissertation was to use the General Aggression Model and Anxious Apprehension Model of Trauma to explore the underlying cognitive, emotional, and self-regulation processes that are related to electronic bullying, victimization, and prosocial behavior. In Study 1, we explored several potential interpretations of the General Aggression Model that would accurately describe the relationship that electronic self-conscious appraisal, cognitive reappraisal, and activational control may have with electronic bullying and victimization. In Study 2, we used the Anxious Apprehension Model of Trauma to explore rejection cognitions as the mediator of the relationships among emotionality (emotionality, shame, state emotion responses, and physiological arousal) and electronic bullying and victimization using structural equation modelling. In addition, we explored the role of rejection cognitions in mediating the relationship of moral disengagement with electronic bullying. In Study 3, we examined predictors of electronic prosocial behavior, such as bullying, victimization, time online, electronic proficiency, electronic self-conscious appraisals, emotionality, and self-regulation. All three studies supported the General Aggression Model as a framework to guide the study of electronic behavior, and suggest the importance of cognitive, emotional, and behavioral means of regulation in shaping electronic behavior. In addition, each study has implications for the development of high quality electronic bullying prevention and intervention research.
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A growing body of research focuses on the expanding roles of NGOs in global and supranational governance. The research emphasizes the increasing number of participation patterns of NGOs in policymaking and cross-national cooperation. It has produced important insights into the evolving political role of NGOs and their growing involvement in governance. The focus on activities at a transnational level has, however, lead to the virtual exclusion of research on other levels of governance. It has not been possible to tell whether the locus of their political activity is shifting from the national to the transnational environment, or whether it is simply broadening. Missing from the literature is an examination of the variety of cooperative relationships, including those between NGOs, which impact policy involvement across different levels of governance. To bridge this gap, I address two key questions: 1) Is the strategy of cooperation among NGOs a common feature of social movement activity across levels of governance, and if so, what does the structure of cooperation look like? 2) What impact, if any, does cooperation have on the expanding political involvement of NGOS, both within and across levels of governance? Using data from an original survey of migrant and refugee organizations across much of Europe, I test several hypotheses that shed light on these issues. The findings broadly indicate that 1) Cooperation is a widely-used strategy across levels of governance, 2) Cooperation with specific sets of actors increases the likelihood of NGO involvement at different levels of governance. Specifically, cooperation with EU-level actors increases the likelihood of national-level involvement, and 3) NGOs are more likely to extend their involvement across a range of institutions if they cooperate with a broad range of actors.
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The EU has become a loose kind ofsocial federation, a fact that has not been adequately taken into account due to the peculiarities ofthe Maastricht strategy for monetary integration. Yet, a new approach to the economic theory offederalism is required ifone wants to analyze the most pressing issues ofEU social policy. The social insurance view of redistribution and stabilization provides for such an approach. This view supports laboratory federalism in which it is the role ofthe EU Commission to contain systems competition in order to preserve "stability in diversity." The role ofthe EU level would be to promote horizontal and vertical learning processes and to make sure that stability concerns ofthe EU are taken seriously by member countries' governments. The minimum requirements framework for social policy that the EU Commission has adopted must be taken as a point of departure, even though it is a less than satisfactory approach from this point of view. Laboratory standardization, in contrast, would not set specific minimum requirements but meta-standards that protect systems functions and safeguard against systems failures.
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Although androgens are commonly seen as male sex hormones, it has been established over the years that in both sexes, androgens also respond to social challenges. To explain the socially driven changes in androgens, two theoretical models have been proposed: the biosocial model and the challenge hypothesis. These models are typically seen as partly overlapping; however, they generate different predictions that are clarified here. In humans, sports competition and nonmetabolic competitive tasks have been used in the laboratory setting, as a proxy for agonistic interactions in animals. The results reviewed here show that the testosterone (T) response to competition in humans is highly variable – the studies present postcompetition T levels and changes in T that depend on the contest outcome and that cannot be predicted by the current theoretical models. These conflicting results bring to the foreground the importance of considering cognitive factors that could moderate the androgen response to competition. Among these variables, we elect cognitive appraisal and its components as a key candidate modulating factor. It is known that T also modulates the cognitive processes that are relevant to performance in competition. In this article, we reviewed the evidence arising from studies investigating the effect of administering exogenous T and compare those results with the findings from studies that measured endogenous T levels. Finally, we summarized the importance of also considering the interaction between androgens and other hormones, such as cortisol, when investigating the social modulation of T, as proposed by the dual-hormone hypothesis.
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In most Western countries, the media are said to exert an increasing influence on the political game. This development, which has been described variably as a shift towards an 'audience democracy' (Manin 1995) or the 'mediatization of politics' (Mazzoleni and Schulz 1999), emphasizes the increasing importance of the media for political actors and political decision-making. In such a context, political actors need to communicate with both the media and the public in order to gain support for their policy plans and to influence decision-making. The media were noticeably absent from Kriesi's (1980) in-depth analysis of political decision-making in Switzerland. This suggests that in the early 1970s, the media did not matter or mattered far less than they do today.