977 resultados para seasonal climate prediction
Resumo:
The brief interaction of precipitation with a forest canopy can create a high spatial variability of both throughfall and solute deposition. We hypothesized that (i) the variability in natural forest systems is high but depends on system-inherent stability, (ii) the spatial variability of solute deposition shows seasonal dynamics depending on the increase in rainfall frequency, and (iii) spatial patterns persist only in the short-term. The study area in the north-western Brazilian state of Rondonia is subject to a climate with a distinct wet and dry season. We collected rain and throughfall on an event basis during the early wet season (n = 14) and peak of the wet season (n = 14) and analyzed the samples for pH and concentrations of NH4+, Na+, K+, Ca2+ Mg2+,, Cl-, NO3-, SO42- and DOC. The coefficient 3 4 cient of variation for throughfall based on both sampling intervals was 29%, which is at the lower end of values reported from other tropical forest sites, but which is higher than in most temperate forests. Coefficients of variation of solute deposition ranged from 29% to 52%. This heterogeneity of solute deposition is neither particularly high nor particularly tow compared with a range of tropical and temperate forest ecosystems. We observed an increase in solute deposition variability with the progressing wet season, which was explained by a negative correlation between heterogeneity of solute deposition and antecedent dry period. The temporal stability of throughfall. patterns was Low during the early wet season, but gained in stability as the wet season progressed. We suggest that rapid plant growth at the beginning of the rainy season is responsible for the lower stability, whereas less vegetative activity during the later rainy season might favor the higher persistence of ""hot"" and ""cold"" spots of throughfall. quantities. The relatively high stability of throughfall patterns during later stages of the wet season may influence processes at the forest floor and in the soil. Solute deposition patterns showed less clear trends but all patterns displayed a short-term stability only. The weak stability of those patterns is apt to impede the formation of solute deposition -induced biochemical microhabitats in the soil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Concentrations of cations (Na(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), K(+), NH(4) (+)), anions (HCO(3) (-), Cl(-), NO(3) (-), SO(4) (2-), PO(4) (3-)) and suspended sediments in the Madeira River water were determined near the city of Porto Velho (RO), in order to assess variation in water chemistry from 2004 to 2007. Calcium and bicarbonate were the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Significant seasonal differences were found, with highest concentrations occurring during the dry season, as expected from the drainage of Andean carbonate-rich substratum. Interannual variations were also observed, but became significant only when annual average discharge was 25% less than normal. Under this atypical discharge condition, bicarbonate was replaced by sulfate, and higher suspended sediment concentrations and loads were also observed. Compared to previously published studies, it appears that no significant changes in water chemistry have occurred during the last 20-30 years, although differences in approaches and sampling designs among this and previous studies may not allow detection of modest changes. The calculated suspended sediment load reported here is close to the values presented elsewhere, reinforcing the relative importance of this river as a sediment supplier for the Amazon Basin. Seasonality has a significant control on the chemistry of Madeira River waters, and severe decrease in discharge due to anthropogenic changes, such as construction of reservoirs or the occurrence of drier years-a plausible consequence of global climate change-may lead to modification in the chemical composition as well in the sediment deliver to the Amazon River.
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During the past 40 years colluvial and alluvial deposits have been used in Brazil as good indicators of regional landscape sensitivity to Quaternary environmental changes. In spite of the low resolution of most of the continental sedimentary record, geomorphology and sedimentology may favor palaeoenvironmental interpretation when supported by independent proxy data. This paper presents results obtained from pedostratigraphic sequences, in near-valley head sites of southern Brazilian highlands, based on geomorphologic. sedimentologic, micromorphologic, isotopic and palynologic data. Results point to environmental changes, with ages that coincide with Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) 5b; 3; 2 and 1. During the late Pleistocene, although under temperatures and precipitation lower than today, the local record points to relatively wet local environments, where shallow soil-water saturated zones contributed to erosion and sedimentation during periods of climatic change, as during the transition between MIS 2 and MIS 1. Late Pleistocene events with ages that coincide with the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas are also depicted. During the mid Holocene, slope-wash deposits suggest a climate drier than today, probably under the influence of seasonally contrasted precipitation regimes. The predominance of overland flow-related sedimentary deposits suggests an excess of precipitation over evaporation that influenced local palaeohydrology. This environmental condition seems to be recurrent and explains how slope morphology had influenced pedogenesis and sedimentation in the study area. Due to relative sensitiveness, resilience and short source-to-sink sedimentary pathways, near-valley head sites deserve further attention in Quaternary studies in the humid tropics. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.A. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
It has been shown that cover crops can enhance soil nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions, but the magnitude of increase depends on the quantity and quality of the crop residues. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of long-term (19 and 21 years) no-till maize crop rotations including grass [black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb)] and legume cover crops [vetch (Vigna sativa L), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp), pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan L. Millsp.) and lablab (Dolichos lablab)] on annual soil N(2)O emissions in a subtropical Acrisol in Southern Brazil. Greater soil N(2)O emissions were observed in the first 45 days after the cover crop residue management in all crop rotations, varying from -20.2 +/- 1.9 to 163.9 +/- 24.3 mu g N m(-2) h(-1). Legume-based crop rotations had the largest cumulative emissions in this period, which were directly related to the quantity of N (r(2) = 0.60, p = 0.13)and inversely related to the lignin:N ratio(r(2) = 0.89,p = 0.01) of the cover crop residues. After this period, the mean fluxes were smaller and were closely related to the total soil N stocks (r(2) = 0.96, p = 0.002). The annual soil N(2)O emission represented 0.39-0.75% of the total N added by the legume cover crops. Management-control led soil variables such as mineral N (NO(3)(-) and NH(4)(+)) and dissolved organic C influenced more the N(2)O fluxes than environmental-related variables as water-filled pore space and air and soil temperature. Consequently, the synchronization between N mineralization and N uptake by plants seems to be the main challenge to reduce N(2)O emissions while maintaining the environmental and agronomic services provided by legume cover crops in agricultural systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This paper deals with the problem of state prediction for descriptor systems subject to bounded uncertainties. The problem is stated in terms of the optimization of an appropriate quadratic functional. This functional is well suited to derive not only the robust predictor for descriptor systems but also that for usual state-space systems. Numerical examples are included in order to demonstrate the performance of this new filter. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The results of a combined experimental program and numerical modeling program to evaluate the behavior of ungrouted hollow concrete blocks prisms under uniaxial compression are addressed. In the numerical program, three distinct approaches have been considered using a continuum model with a smeared approach, namely plane-stress, plane-strain and three-dimensional conditions. The response of the numerical simulations is compared with experimental data of masonry prisms using concrete blocks specifically designed for this purpose. The elastic and inelastic parameters were acquired from laboratory tests on concrete and mortar samples that constitute the blocks and the bed joint of the prisms. The results from the numerical simulations are discussed with respect to the ability to reproduce the global response of the experimental tests, and with respect to the failure behavior obtained. Good agreement between experimental and numerical results was found for the peak load and for the failure mode using the three-dimensional model, on four different sets of block/mortar types. Less good agreement was found for plain stress and plain strain models.
Resumo:
Aquatic humic substances (AHS) isolated from two characteristic seasons of the Negro river, winter and summer corresponding to floody and dry periods, were structurally characterized by (13)C nuclear magnetic ressonance. Subsequently, AHS aqueous solutions were irradiated with a polychromatic lamp (290-475 nm) and monitored by its total organic carbon (TOC) content, ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) absorbance, fluorescence and Fourier transformed infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). As a result, a photobleaching upto 80% after irradiation of 48 h was observed. Conformational rearrangements and formation of low molecular complexity structures were formed during the irradiation, as deduced from the pH decrement and the fluorescence shifting to lower wavelengths. Additionally a significant mineralization with the formation Of CO(2), CO, and inorganic carbon compounds was registered, as assumed by TOC losses of up to 70%. The differences in photodegradation between samples expressed by photobleaching efficiency were enhanced in the summer sample and related to its elevated aromatic content. Aromatic structures are assumed to have high autosensitization capacity effects mediated by the free radical generation from quinone and phenolic moieties.
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An updated flow pattern map was developed for CO2 on the basis of the previous Cheng-Ribatski-Wojtan-Thome CO2 flow pattern map [1,2] to extend the flow pattern map to a wider range of conditions. A new annular flow to dryout transition (A-D) and a new dryout to mist flow transition (D-M) were proposed here. In addition, a bubbly flow region which generally occurs at high mass velocities and low vapor qualities was added to the updated flow pattern map. The updated flow pattern map is applicable to a much wider range of conditions: tube diameters from 0.6 to 10 mm, mass velocities from 50 to 1500 kg/m(2) s, heat fluxes from 1.8 to 46 kW/m(2) and saturation temperatures from -28 to +25 degrees C (reduced pressures from 0.21 to 0.87). The updated flow pattern map was compared to independent experimental data of flow patterns for CO2 in the literature and it predicts the flow patterns well. Then, a database of CO2 two-phase flow pressure drop results from the literature was set up and the database was compared to the leading empirical pressure drop models: the correlations by Chisholm [3], Friedel [4], Gronnerud [5] and Muller-Steinhagen and Heck [6], a modified Chisholm correlation by Yoon et al. [7] and the flow pattern based model of Moreno Quiben and Thome [8-10]. None of these models was able to predict the CO2 pressure drop data well. Therefore, a new flow pattern based phenomenological model of two-phase flow frictional pressure drop for CO2 was developed by modifying the model of Moreno Quiben and Thome using the updated flow pattern map in this study and it predicts the CO2 pressure drop database quite well overall. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Corresponding to the updated flow pattern map presented in Part I of this study, an updated general flow pattern based flow boiling heat transfer model was developed for CO2 using the Cheng-Ribatski-Wojtan-Thome [L. Cheng, G. Ribatski, L. Wojtan, J.R. Thome, New flow boiling heat transfer model and flow pattern map for carbon dioxide evaporating inside horizontal tubes, Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 49 (2006) 4082-4094; L. Cheng, G. Ribatski, L. Wojtan, J.R. Thome, Erratum to: ""New flow boiling heat transfer model and flow pattern map for carbon dioxide evaporating inside tubes"" [Heat Mass Transfer 49 (21-22) (2006) 4082-4094], Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 50 (2007) 391] flow boiling heat transfer model as the starting basis. The flow boiling heat transfer correlation in the dryout region was updated. In addition, a new mist flow heat transfer correlation for CO2 was developed based on the CO2 data and a heat transfer method for bubbly flow was proposed for completeness sake. The updated general flow boiling heat transfer model for CO2 covers all flow regimes and is applicable to a wider range of conditions for horizontal tubes: tube diameters from 0.6 to 10 mm, mass velocities from 50 to 1500 kg/m(2) s, heat fluxes from 1.8 to 46 kW/m(2) and saturation temperatures from -28 to 25 degrees C (reduced pressures from 0.21 to 0.87). The updated general flow boiling heat transfer model was compared to a new experimental database which contains 1124 data points (790 more than that in the previous model [Cheng et al., 2006, 2007]) in this study. Good agreement between the predicted and experimental data was found in general with 71.4% of the entire database and 83.2% of the database without the dryout and mist flow data predicted within +/-30%. However, the predictions for the dryout and mist flow regions were less satisfactory due to the limited number of data points, the higher inaccuracy in such data, scatter in some data sets ranging up to 40%, significant discrepancies from one experimental study to another and the difficulties associated with predicting the inception and completion of dryout around the perimeter of the horizontal tubes. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The effect of Pigment Volume Content (PVC) on fungal growth on acrylic paint formulations with and without biocide, exposed to weathering in three different climatic regions in Brazil for four years, was studied Latex paints. with PVC of 30%, 35% and 50%, were applied to autoclaved aerated concrete blocks pre-covered with acrylic sealer and acrylic plaster They were exposed to equatorial, tropical and temperate climates in north, south-east, and south Brazil Cladosporium was the most abundant fungal genus detected in the biofilm on the surfaces of all paint formulations at all sites after four years Heaviest fungal colonization occurred in the tropical south-east and lightest in the temperate south of the country, but more phototrophs, principally cyanobacteria, were detected in the equatorial region PVC and presence of biocides were shown to be of less importance than environmental conditions (irradiance, humidity and temperature) for biofilm formation and consequent discolouration These results have important implications for testing of paint formulations (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved
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Ecological niche modelling combines species occurrence points with environmental raster layers in order to obtain models for describing the probabilistic distribution of species. The process to generate an ecological niche model is complex. It requires dealing with a large amount of data, use of different software packages for data conversion, for model generation and for different types of processing and analyses, among other functionalities. A software platform that integrates all requirements under a single and seamless interface would be very helpful for users. Furthermore, since biodiversity modelling is constantly evolving, new requirements are constantly being added in terms of functions, algorithms and data formats. This evolution must be accompanied by any software intended to be used in this area. In this scenario, a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an appropriate choice for designing such systems. According to SOA best practices and methodologies, the design of a reference business process must be performed prior to the architecture definition. The purpose is to understand the complexities of the process (business process in this context refers to the ecological niche modelling problem) and to design an architecture able to offer a comprehensive solution, called a reference architecture, that can be further detailed when implementing specific systems. This paper presents a reference business process for ecological niche modelling, as part of a major work focused on the definition of a reference architecture based on SOA concepts that will be used to evolve the openModeller software package for species modelling. The basic steps that are performed while developing a model are described, highlighting important aspects, based on the knowledge of modelling experts. In order to illustrate the steps defined for the process, an experiment was developed, modelling the distribution of Ouratea spectabilis (Mart.) Engl. (Ochnaceae) using openModeller. As a consequence of the knowledge gained with this work, many desirable improvements on the modelling software packages have been identified and are presented. Also, a discussion on the potential for large-scale experimentation in ecological niche modelling is provided, highlighting opportunities for research. The results obtained are very important for those involved in the development of modelling tools and systems, for requirement analysis and to provide insight on new features and trends for this category of systems. They can also be very helpful for beginners in modelling research, who can use the process and the experiment example as a guide to this complex activity. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this work, the applicability of a new algorithm for the estimation of mechanical properties from instrumented indentation data was studied for thin films. The applicability was analyzed with the aid of both three-dimensional finite element simulations and experimental indentation tests. The numerical approach allowed studying the effect of the substrate on the estimation of mechanical properties of the film, which was conducted based on the ratio h(max)/l between maximum indentation depth and film thickness. For the experimental analysis, indentation tests were conducted on AISI H13 tool steel specimens, plasma nitrated and coated with TiN thin films. Results have indicated that, for the conditions analyzed in this work, the elastic deformation of the substrate limited the extraction of mechanical properties of the film/substrate system. This limitation occurred even at low h(max)/l ratios and especially for the estimation of the values of yield strength and strain hardening exponent. At indentation depths lower than 4% of the film thickness, the proposed algorithm estimated the mechanical properties of the film with accuracy. Particularly for hardness, precise values were estimated at h(max)/l lower than 0.1, i.e. 10% of film thickness. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Resumo:
The objective of the present work is to propose a numerical and statistical approach, using computational fluid dynamics, for the study of the atmospheric pollutant dispersion. Modifications in the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and additional equations for the calculation of the variance of concentration are introduced to enhance the prediction of the flow field and scalar quantities. The flow field, the mean concentration and the variance of a flow over a two-dimensional triangular hill, with a finite-size point pollutant source, are calculated by a finite volume code and compared with published experimental results. A modified low Reynolds k-epsilon turbulence model was employed in this work, using the constant of the k-epsilon model C(mu)=0.03 to take into account the inactive atmospheric turbulence. The numerical results for the velocity profiles and the position of the reattachment point are in good agreement with the experimental results. The results for the mean and the variance of the concentration are also in good agreement with experimental results from the literature. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A multiphase deterministic mathematical model was implemented to predict the formation of the grain macrostructure during unidirectional solidification. The model consists of macroscopic equations of energy, mass, and species conservation coupled with dendritic growth models. A grain nucleation model based on a Gaussian distribution of nucleation undercoolings was also adopted. At some solidification conditions, the cooling curves calculated with the model showed oscillations (""wiggles""), which prevented the correct prediction of the average grain size along the structure. Numerous simulations were carried out at nucleation conditions where the oscillations are absent, enabling an assessment of the effect of the heat transfer coefficient on the average grain size and columnar-to-equiaxed transition.
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Steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence measurements are reported for several crude oils and their saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA) fractions (saturates, aromatics and resins), isolated from maltene after pentane precipitation of the asphaltenes. There is a clear relationship between the American Petroleum Institute (API) grade of the crude oils and their fluorescence emission intensity and maxima. Dilution of the crude oil samples with cyclohexane results in a significant increase of emission intensity and a blue shift, which is a clear indication of the presence of energy-transfer processes between the emissive chromophores present in the crude oil. Both the fluorescence spectra and the mean fluorescence lifetimes of the three SARA fractions and their mixtures indicate that the aromatics and resins are the major contributors to the emission of crude oils. Total synchronous fluorescence scan (TSFS) spectral maps are preferable to steady-state fluorescence spectra for discriminating between the fractions, making TSFS maps a particularly interesting choice for the development of fluorescence-based methods for the characterization and classification of crude oils. More detailed studies, using a much wider range of excitation and emission wavelengths, are necessary to determine the utility of time-resolved fluorescence (TRF) data for this purpose. Preliminary models constructed using TSFS spectra from 21 crude oil samples show a very good correlation (R(2) > 0.88) between the calculated and measured values of API and the SARA fraction concentrations. The use of models based on a fast fluorescence measurement may thus be an alternative to tedious and time-consuming chemical analysis in refineries.