Informatika, telekommunikáció és gazdasági stabilitás (Information technology, telecommunications and economic stability)

Fizikai példákon és matematikai modelleken bemutatjuk, hogy a rendszerek működésének hatékonyságnövekedése instabilitást eredményezhet. Megvizsgáljuk, hogy az informatika és a telekommunikáció fejlődése okozhat-e rendszerszintű instabilitást, illetve milyen gazdasági eszközök vannak a stabilitás fenntartására. / === / Using examples from physics and mathematical modeling, the paper shows that increasing efficiency in systems can lead to instability. The question thus arises whether the development of information and telecommunication technology can lead to instability in the economic system. The policy tools used to maintain stability are also discussed.

Eyewitness memory: Balancing the accuracy, precision, and quantity of information through metacognitive monitoring and control

Historically, memory has been evaluated by examining how much is remembered, however a more recent conception of memory focuses on the accuracy of memories. When using this accuracy-oriented conception of memory, unlike with the quantity-oriented approach, memory does not always deteriorate over time. A possible explanation for this seemingly surprising finding lies in the metacognitive processes of monitoring and control. Use of these processes allows people to withhold responses of which they are unsure, or to adjust the precision of responses to a level that is broad enough to be correct. The ability to accurately report memories has implications for investigators who interview witnesses to crimes, and those who evaluate witness testimony. ^ This research examined the amount of information provided, accuracy, and precision of responses provided during immediate and delayed interviews about a videotaped mock crime. The interview format was manipulated such that a single free narrative response was elicited, or a series of either yes/no or cued questions were asked. Instructions provided by the interviewer indicated to the participants that they should either stress being informative, or being accurate. The interviews were then transcribed and scored. ^ Results indicate that accuracy rates remained stable and high after a one week delay. Compared to those interviewed immediately, after a delay participants provided less information and responses that were less precise. Participants in the free narrative condition were the most accurate. Participants in the cued questions condition provided the most precise responses. Participants in the yes/no questions condition were most likely to say “I don’t know”. The results indicate that people are able to monitor their memories and modify their reports to maintain high accuracy. When control over precision was not possible, such as in the yes/no condition, people said “I don’t know” to maintain accuracy. However when withholding responses and adjusting precision were both possible, people utilized both methods. It seems that concerns that memories reported after a long retention interval might be inaccurate are unfounded. ^

"New" Social Movements: Alternative Modernities, (Trans)local Nationalisms, and Solidarity Economies

My dissertation is the first project on the Haitian Platform for Advocacy for an Alternative Development- PAPDA, a nation-building coalition founded by activists from varying sectors to coordinate one comprehensive nationalist movement against what they are calling an Occupation. My work not only provides information on this under-theorized popular movement but also situates it within the broader literature on the postcolonial nation-state as well as Latin American and Caribbean social movements. The dissertation analyzes the contentious relationship between local and global discourses and practices of citizenship. Furthermore, the research draws on transnational feminist theory to underline the scattered hegemonies that intersect to produce varied spaces and practices of sovereignty within the Haitian postcolonial nation-state. The dissertation highlights how race and class, gender and sexuality, education and language, and religion have been imagined and co-constituted by Haitian social movements in constructing ‘new’ collective identities that collapse the private and the public, the rural and the urban, the traditional and the modern. My project complements the scholarship on social movements and the postcolonial nation-state and pushes it forward by emphasizing its spatial dimensions. Moreover, the dissertation de-centers the state to underline the movement of capital, goods, resources, and populations that shape the postcolonial experience. I re-define the postcolonial nation-state as a network of local, regional, international, and transnational arrangements between different political agents, including social movement actors. To conduct this interdisciplinary research project, I employed ethnographic methods, discourse and textual analysis, as well as basic mapping and statistical descriptions in order to present a historically-rooted interpretation of individual and organizational negotiations for community-based autonomy and regional development.

Sources of nutrition information for persons living in Trinidad and Tobago

Health consumers worldwide obtain nutrition information from various sources; however, the sources Trinidadians and Tobagonians accessed were unclear. This cross-sectional, descriptive study ascertained from which sources Trinidadians and Tobagonians obtained nutrition information. Participants (n = 845) were surveyed with questions regarding demographics and nutrition information sources. Nearly 100% agreed nutrition information was important. Persons 18-64 years old mainly accessed print media (p<0.01) and ≥ 65years old predominantly accessed the non-print media. Significantly more tertiary educated people, ≥ 35 years old, retrieved information from print media (p=0.001), health care professionals (p=0.001), food labels (p=0.006), and non-print media (p=0.03) when compared to those < 35 years with similar education. Tertiary educated people (67%), selected the Internet when compared to those with without tertiary education (33%) (p<0.001). Knowing the nutrition information sources accessed, dietitians will be able to provide consistent, accurate, age specific nutrition information and promote healthy eating among Trinidadians and Tobagonians.

Eliciting and Aggregating Forecasts When Information is Shared

Using the wisdom of crowds---combining many individual forecasts to obtain an aggregate estimate---can be an effective technique for improving forecast accuracy. When individual forecasts are drawn from independent and identical information sources, a simple average provides the optimal crowd forecast. However, correlated forecast errors greatly limit the ability of the wisdom of crowds to recover the truth. In practice, this dependence often emerges because information is shared: forecasters may to a large extent draw on the same data when formulating their responses.

To address this problem, I propose an elicitation procedure in which each respondent is asked to provide both their own best forecast and a guess of the average forecast that will be given by all other respondents. I study optimal responses in a stylized information setting and develop an aggregation method, called pivoting, which separates individual forecasts into shared and private information and then recombines these results in the optimal manner. I develop a tailored pivoting procedure for each of three information models, and introduce a simple and robust variant that outperforms the simple average across a variety of settings.

In three experiments, I investigate the method and the accuracy of the crowd forecasts. In the first study, I vary the shared and private information in a controlled environment, while the latter two studies examine forecasts in real-world contexts. Overall, the data suggest that a simple minimal pivoting procedure provides an effective aggregation technique that can significantly outperform the crowd average.

Surviving and Thriving in a Hostile Religious Culture

The present study explored a minority oppositional religious culture, which continued practicing despite overt hostilities to their practices. The qualitative research project utilized interviews and observations of the Gardnerian Wiccans in Broward County, Florida. The narrative data were transcribed, coded, and categorized into three themes related to the following research questions: Why would individuals create a secretive religion? Given they had to practice in secret, what about this religion had people seeking out information and joining Covens? What would keep this group together despite opposition from dominant culture? As a microcosm for religious conflict in society, the study showed differences in the culture’s religious paradigm structure as a major factor for religious conflict.

Eyewitness Memory: Balancing the Accuracy, Precision, and Quantity of Information through Metacognitive Monitoring and Control

Historically, memory has been evaluated by examining how much is remembered, however a more recent conception of memory focuses on the accuracy of memories. When using this accuracy-oriented conception of memory, unlike with the quantity-oriented approach, memory does not always deteriorate over time. A possible explanation for this seemingly surprising finding lies in the metacognitive processes of monitoring and control. Use of these processes allows people to withhold responses of which they are unsure, or to adjust the precision of responses to a level that is broad enough to be correct. The ability to accurately report memories has implications for investigators who interview witnesses to crimes, and those who evaluate witness testimony. This research examined the amount of information provided, accuracy, and precision of responses provided during immediate and delayed interviews about a videotaped mock crime. The interview format was manipulated such that a single free narrative response was elicited, or a series of either yes/no or cued questions were asked. Instructions provided by the interviewer indicated to the participants that they should either stress being informative, or being accurate. The interviews were then transcribed and scored. Results indicate that accuracy rates remained stable and high after a one week delay. Compared to those interviewed immediately, after a delay participants provided less information and responses that were less precise. Participants in the free narrative condition were the most accurate. Participants in the cued questions condition provided the most precise responses. Participants in the yes/no questions condition were most likely to say “I don’t know”. The results indicate that people are able to monitor their memories and modify their reports to maintain high accuracy. When control over precision was not possible, such as in the yes/no condition, people said “I don’t know” to maintain accuracy. However when withholding responses and adjusting precision were both possible, people utilized both methods. It seems that concerns that memories reported after a long retention interval might be inaccurate are unfounded.

Children’s access to beneficial information in Arab states: Implementation of Article 17 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child in Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates

In theory, the multiple platforms and transnational nature of digital media, along with a related proliferation of diverse forms of content, make it easier for children’s right to access socially and culturally beneficial information and material to be realised, as required by Article 17 of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC). Drawing on data collected during research on children’s screen content in the Arab world, combined with scrutiny of documents collated by the Committee on the Rights of the Child, which monitors compliance with the CRC, this paper explores how three Arab countries, Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates, presented their efforts to implement Article 17 as part of their periodic reporting on their overall performance in putting the CRC into effect. It uncovers tensions over the relationship between provision, participation and protection in relation to media, reveals that Article 17 is liable to get less attention than it deserves in contexts where governments keep a tight grip on media, and that, by appearing to give it a lower priority, all parties neglect the intersection between human rights in relation to media and children’s rights.

Myanmar DIL WORKSHOP SERIES Unit 4: Working Online and Using Information

The Mobile Information Literacy curriculum is a growing collection of training materials designed to build literacies for the millions of people worldwide coming online every month via a mobile phone. Most information information and digital literacy curricula were designed for a PC age, and public and private organizations around the world have used these curricula to help newcomers use computers and the internet effectively and safely. The better curricula address not only skills, but also concepts and attitudes. The central question for this project is: what are the relevant skills, concepts, and attitudes for people using mobiles, not PCs, to access the internet? As part of the Information Strategies for Societies in Transition project, we developed a six-module curriculum for mobile-first users. The project is situated in Myanmar, a country undergoing massive political, economic, and social changes, and where mobile penetration is expected to reach 80% by the end of 2015 from just 4% in 2014. Combined with the country’s history of media censorship, Myanmar presents unique challenges for addressing the needs of people who need the ability to find and evaluate the quality and credibility of information obtained online, understand how to create and share online information effectively, and participate safely and securely.

Evaluating New Matrix Pooled Testing Methods for Detecting HIV Treatment Failure with and without Covariate Information

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Sense-making in theory and practice: a metatheoretical foundation and application for health information seeking

This thesis attempts to provide deeper historical and theoretical grounding for sense-making, thereby illustrating its applicability to practical information seeking research. In Chapter One I trace the philosophical origins of Brenda Dervin’s theory known as “sense making,” reaching beyond current scholarship that locates the origins of sense-making in twentieth-century Phenomenology and Communication theory and find its rich ontological, epistemological, and etymological heritage that dates back to the Pre-Socratics. After exploring sense-making’s Greek roots, I examine sense-making’s philosophical undercurrents found in Hegel’s Phenomenology of Spirit (1807), where he also returns to the simplicity of the Greeks for his concept of sense. With Chapter Two I explore sense-making methodology and find, in light of the Greek and Hegelian dialectic, a dialogical bridge connecting sense-making’s theory with pragmatic uses. This bridge between Dervin’s situation and use occupies a distinct position in sense-making theory. Moreover, building upon Brenda Dervin’s model of sense-making, I use her metaphors of gap and bridge analogy to discuss the dialectic and dialogic components of sense making. The purpose of Chapter Three is pragmatic – to gain insight into the online information-seeking needs, experiences, and motivation of first-degree relatives (FDRs) of breast cancer survivors through the lens of sense-making. This research analyses four questions: 1) information-seeking behavior among FDRs of cancer survivors compared to survivors and to undiagnosed, non-related online cancer information seekers in the general population, 2) types of and places where information is sought, 3) barriers or gaps and satisfaction rates FDRs face in their cancer information quest, and 4) types and degrees of cancer information and resources FDRs want and use in their information search for themselves and other family members. An online survey instrument designed to investigate these questions was developed and pilot tested. Via an email communication, the Susan Love Breast Cancer Research Foundation distributed 322,000 invitations to its membership to complete the survey, and from March 24th to April 5th 10,692 women agreed to take the survey with 8,804 volunteers actually completing survey responses. Of the 8,804 surveys, 95% of FDRs have searched for cancer information online, and 84% of FDRs use the Internet as a sense-making tool for additional information they have received from doctors or nurses. FDRs report needing much more information than either survivors or family/friends in ten out of fifteen categories related to breast and ovarian cancer. When searching for cancer information online, FDRs also rank highest in several of sense-making’s emotional levels: uncertainty, confusion, frustration, doubt, and disappointment than do either survivors or friends and family. The sense-making process has existed in theory and praxis since the early Greeks. In applying sense–making’s theory to a contemporary problem, the survey reveals unaddressed situations and gaps of FDRs’ information search process. FDRs are a highly motivated group of online information seekers whose needs are largely unaddressed as a result of gaps in available online information targeted to address their specific needs. Since FDRs represent a quarter of the population, further research addressing their specific online information needs and experiences is necessary.

Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Managing and utilizing information flow for new products’ periodic account sales process

The goal was to understand, document and module how information is currently flown internally in the largest dairy organization in Finland. The organization has undergone radical changes in the past years due to economic sanctions between European Union and Russia. Therefore, organization’s ultimate goal would be to continue its growth through managing its sales process more efficiently. The thesis consists of a literature review and an empirical part. The literature review consists of knowledge management and process modeling theories. First, the knowledge management discusses how data, information and knowledge are exchanged in the process. Knowledge management models and processes are describing how knowledge is created, exchanged and can be managed in an organization. Secondly, the process modeling is responsible for visualizing information flow through discussion of modeling approaches and presenting different methods and techniques. Finally, process’ documentation procedure was presented. In the end, a constructive research approach was used in order to identify process’ related problems and bottlenecks. Therefore, possible solutions were presented based on this approach. The empirical part of the study is based on 37 interviews, organization’s internal data sources and theoretical framework. The acquired data and information were used to document and to module the sales process in question with a flowchart diagram. Results are conducted through construction of the flowchart diagram and analysis of the documentation. In fact, answers to research questions are derived from empirical and theoretical parts. In the end, 14 problems and two bottlenecks were identified in the process. The most important problems are related to approach and/or standardization for information sharing, insufficient information technology tool utilization and lack of systematization of documentation. The bottlenecks are caused by the alarming amount of changes to files after their deadlines.

National Information Networks and International

We can categorically state that the information is the main ingredient of the culture of a people. Defining information as a set of processed data that are needed, have value and meaning for individuals and for developing countries where data is any fact.The information could also be considered as an international resource indispensable. The scientific and technological development is a consequence of the relevant information is handled. The "heap" is a source of information that libraries must consider and integrate them because they give rise to more information and new technology. The need for improved information systems in recent years, it has become critical because the information data grows in quantity and complexity of organization. Consequently, some libraries have tried to coordinate functions, redistribute resources, identify needs and work together to give easier access to information

INFORMATION PRACTICES DURING LIFE TRANSITION: KOREAN IMMIGRANT WOMEN’S EVERYDAY LIFE INFORMATION SEEKING AND ACCULTURATION

In this dissertation, I explore information practices during life transition in the context of immigration. This study aims to understand how their unique personal, social, and life contexts shape immigration experiences, and how these diverse contexts are related to various information practices that they engage in to resolve daily information needs and achieve immigration goals. In my study I examined daily information needs and acquisition of Korean immigrant women. Data were collected through two interview sessions, diary entries on everyday information seeking up to three weeks, post-diary debriefing interviews to reveal contexts surrounding information practices, and observation sessions. My study shows that one’s accumulated experiences with information-related situations shape the person’s attitudes toward diverse information resources and habitual information practices. Both personal and social contexts surrounding immigrant women change during life transition and shape how they interpret their immigration experiences, what information they need to deal with both daily and long-term goals, and how they modify their information practices to obtain the relevant information in an unfamiliar information environment. Also, life transition of immigration entails changes in immigrant women’s social roles, which engender their daily responsibilities in the new society. These daily responsibilities motivate immigrant women’s everyday interactions with a variety of communities in order to exchange information and conduct their social roles in the new sociocultural environment. While immigrant women had common information needs around culture learning, social roles and associated responsibilities explain differences in their differing information needs and tend to direct daily information practices. The advancement of ICTs allows immigrant women to conduct their social roles in a remote city as well as to maintain multiple connections with both the heritage and host society. Limited cultural knowledge influences immigrant women’s evaluation and use of the obtained information as well as their acquisition of relevant information. This study provides understandings on the role of information during life transition as well as Korean immigrant women’s information practices.