Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

A cocktail of thermally stable, chemically synthesized capture agents for the efficient detection of anti-gp41 antibodies from human sera and techniques

This thesis reports on a method to improve in vitro diagnostic assays that detect immune response, with specific application to HIV-1. The inherent polyclonal diversity of the humoral immune response was addressed by using sequential in situ click chemistry to develop a cocktail of peptide-based capture agents, the components of which were raised against different, representative anti-HIV antibodies that bind to a conserved epitope of the HIV-1 envelope protein gp41. The cocktail was used to detect anti-HIV-1 antibodies from a panel of sera collected from HIV-positive patients, with improved signal-to-noise ratio relative to the gold standard commercial recombinant protein antigen. The capture agents were stable when stored as a powder for two months at temperatures close to 60°C.

Microstructure control and iodine doping of bismuth telluride

On the materials scale, thermoelectric efficiency is defined by the dimensionless figure of merit zT. This value is made up of three material components in the form zT = Tα²/ρκ, where α is the Seebeck coefficient, ρ is the electrical resistivity, and κ is the total thermal conductivity. Therefore, in order to improve zT would require the reduction of κ and ρ while increasing α. However due to the inter-relation of the electrical and thermal properties of materials, typical routes to thermoelectric enhancement come in one of two forms. The first is to isolate the electronic properties and increase α without negatively affecting ρ. Techniques like electron filtering, quantum confinement, and density of states distortions have been proposed to enhance the Seebeck coefficient in thermoelectric materials. However, it has been difficult to prove the efficacy of these techniques. More recently efforts to manipulate the band degeneracy in semiconductors has been explored as a means to enhance α.

The other route to thermoelectric enhancement is through minimizing the thermal conductivity, κ. More specifically, thermal conductivity can be broken into two parts, an electronic and lattice term, κ_e and κ_l respectively. From a functional materials standpoint, the reduction in lattice thermal conductivity should have a minimal effect on the electronic properties. Most routes incorporate techniques that focus on the reduction of the lattice thermal conductivity. The components that make up κ_l (κ_l = 1/3Cνl) are the heat capacity (C), phonon group velocity (ν), and phonon mean free path (l). Since the difficulty is extreme in altering the heat capacity and group velocity, the phonon mean free path is most often the source of reduction.

Past routes to decreasing the phonon mean free path has been by alloying and grain size reduction. However, in these techniques the electron mobility is often negatively affected because in alloying any perturbation to the periodic potential can cause additional adverse carrier scattering. Grain size reduction has been another successful route to enhancing zT because of the significant difference in electron and phonon mean free paths. However, grain size reduction is erratic in anisotropic materials due to the orientation dependent transport properties. However, microstructure formation in both equilibrium and nonequilibrium processing routines can be used to effectively reduce the phonon mean free path as a route to enhance the figure of merit.

This work starts with a discussion of several different deliberate microstructure varieties. Control of the morphology and finally structure size and spacing is discussed at length. Since the material example used throughout this thesis is anisotropic a short primer on zone melting is presented as an effective route to growing homogeneous and oriented polycrystalline material. The resulting microstructure formation and control is presented specifically in the case of In₂Te₃-Bi₂Te₃ composites and the transport properties pertinent to thermoelectric materials is presented. Finally, the transport and discussion of iodine doped Bi₂Te₃ is presented as a re-evaluation of the literature data and what is known today.

An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances

An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope (HEIST), has been developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei in the charge range 3 ≤ Z ≤ 28 and the energy range between 30 and 800 MeV/nuc by employing an energy loss -- residual energy technique. Measurements of particle trajectories and energy losses are made using a multiwire proportional counter hodoscope and a stack of CsI(TI) crystal scintillators, respectively. A detailed analysis has been made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument.

Landau fluctuations set a fundamental limit on the attainable mass resolution, which for this instrument ranges between ~.07 AMU for z~3 and ~.2 AMU for z~2b. Contributions to the mass resolution due to uncertainties in measuring the path-length and energy losses of the detected particles are shown to degrade the overall mass resolution to between ~.1 AMU (z~3) and ~.3 AMU (z~2b).

A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, is developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. This purely secondary isotope is used as a tracer of secondary production during propagation. This technique is illustrated for the isotopes of the elements O, Ne, S, Ar and Ca.

The uncertainties in the derived source ratios due to errors in fragmentation and total inelastic cross sections, in observed spectral shapes, and in measured abundances are evaluated. It is shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances.

These results are applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.

Injection Locked Clocking and Transmitter Equalization Techniques for Chip to Chip Interconnects

Semiconductor technology scaling has enabled drastic growth in the computational capacity of integrated circuits (ICs). This constant growth drives an increasing demand for high bandwidth communication between ICs. Electrical channel bandwidth has not been able to keep up with this demand, making I/O link design more challenging. Interconnects which employ optical channels have negligible frequency dependent loss and provide a potential solution to this I/O bandwidth problem. Apart from the type of channel, efficient high-speed communication also relies on generation and distribution of multi-phase, high-speed, and high-quality clock signals. In the multi-gigahertz frequency range, conventional clocking techniques have encountered several design challenges in terms of power consumption, skew and jitter. Injection-locking is a promising technique to address these design challenges for gigahertz clocking. However, its small locking range has been a major contributor in preventing its ubiquitous acceptance.

In the first part of this dissertation we describe a wideband injection locking scheme in an LC oscillator. Phase locked loop (PLL) and injection locking elements are combined symbiotically to achieve wide locking range while retaining the simplicity of the latter. This method does not require a phase frequency detector or a loop filter to achieve phase lock. A mathematical analysis of the system is presented and the expression for new locking range is derived. A locking range of 13.4 GHz–17.2 GHz (25%) and an average jitter tracking bandwidth of up to 400 MHz are measured in a high-Q LC oscillator. This architecture is used to generate quadrature phases from a single clock without any frequency division. It also provides high frequency jitter filtering while retaining the low frequency correlated jitter essential for forwarded clock receivers.

To improve the locking range of an injection locked ring oscillator; QLL (Quadrature locked loop) is introduced. The inherent dynamics of injection locked quadrature ring oscillator are used to improve its locking range from 5% (7-7.4GHz) to 90% (4-11GHz). The QLL is used to generate accurate clock phases for a four channel optical receiver using a forwarded clock at quarter-rate. The QLL drives an injection locked oscillator (ILO) at each channel without any repeaters for local quadrature clock generation. Each local ILO has deskew capability for phase alignment. The optical-receiver uses the inherent frequency to voltage conversion provided by the QLL to dynamically body bias its devices. A wide locking range of the QLL helps to achieve a reliable data-rate of 16-32Gb/s and adaptive body biasing aids in maintaining an ultra-low power consumption of 153pJ/bit.

From the optical receiver we move on to discussing a non-linear equalization technique for a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) based optical transmitter, to enable low-power, high-speed optical transmission. A non-linear time domain optical model of the VCSEL is built and evaluated for accuracy. The modelling shows that, while conventional FIR-based pre-emphasis works well for LTI electrical channels, it is not optimum for the non-linear optical frequency response of the VCSEL. Based on the simulations of the model an optimum equalization methodology is derived. The equalization technique is used to achieve a data-rate of 20Gb/s with power efficiency of 0.77pJ/bit.

Investigation of competitive antagonist binding to the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor using voltage-jump and light-flash techniques

1. The effect of 2,2’-bis-[α-(trimethylammonium)methyl]azobenzene (2BQ), a photoisomerizable competitive antagonist, was studied at the nicotinic acetycholine receptor of Electrophorus electroplaques using voltage-jump and light-flash techniques.

2. 2BQ, at concentrations below 3 μΜ, reduced the amplitude of voltage-jump relaxations but had little effect on the voltage-jump relaxation time constants under all experimental conditions. At higher concentrations and voltages more negative than -150 mV, 2BQ caused significant open channel blockade.

3. Dose-ratio studies showed that the cis and trans isomers of 2BQ have equilibrium binding constants (K _ᵢ) of .33 and 1.0 μΜ, respectively. The binding constants determined for both isomers are independent of temperature, voltage, agonist concentration, and the nature of the agonist.

4. In a solution of predominantly cis-2BQ, visible-light flashes led to a net cis→trans isomerization and caused an increase in the agonist-induced current. This increase had at least two exponential components; the larger amplitude component had the same time constant as a subsequent voltage-jump relaxation; the smaller amplitude component was investigated using ultraviolet light flashes.

5. In a solution of predominantly trans-2BQ, UV-light flashes led to a net trans→cis isomerization and caused a net decrease in the agonist-induced current. This effect had at least two exponential components. The smaller and faster component was an increase in agonist-induced current and had a similar time constant to the voltage-jump relaxation. The larger component was a slow decrease in the agonist-induced current with rate constant approximately an order of magnitude less than that of the voltage-jump relaxation. This slow component provided a measure of the rate constant for dissociation of cis-2BQ (k_ = 60/s at 20°C). Simple modelling of the slope of the dose-rate curves yields an association rate constant of 1.6 x 10⁸/M/s. This agrees with the association rate constant of 1.8 x 10⁸/M/s estimated from the binding constant (K_i). The Q₁₀ of the dissociation rate constant of cis-2BQ was 3.3 between 6° and 20°C. The rate constants for association and dissociation of cis-28Q at receptors are independent of voltage, agonist concentration, and the nature of the agonist.

6. We have measured the molecular rate constants of a competitive antagonist which has roughly the same K _ᵢ as d-tubocurarine but interacts more slowly with the receptor. This leads to the conclusion that curare itself has an association rate constant of 4 x 10⁹/M/s or roughly as fast as possible for an encounter-limited reaction.

The isolation and partial biochemical analysis of Sindbis virus proteins

Recently, the amino acid sequences have been reported for several proteins, including the envelope glycoproteins of Sindbis virus, which all probably span the plasma membrane with a common topology: a large N-terminal, extracellular portion, a short region buried in the bilayer, and a short C-terminal intracellular segment. The regions of these proteins buried in the bilayer correspond to portions of the protein sequences which contain a stretch of hydrophobic amino acids and which have other common characteristics, as discussed. Reasons are also described for uncertainty, in some proteins more than others, as to the precise location of some parts of the sequence relative to the membrane.

The signal hypothesis for the transmembrane translocation of proteins is briefly described and its general applicability is reviewed. There are many proteins whose translocation is accurately described by this hypothesis, but some proteins are translocated in a different manner.

The transmembraneous glycoproteins E1 and E2 of Sindbis virus, as well as the only other virion protein, the capsid protein, were purified in amounts sufficient for biochemical analysis using sensitive techniques. The amino acid composition of each protein was determined, and extensive N-terminal sequences were obtained for E1 and E2. By these techniques E1 and E2 are indistinguishable from most water soluble proteins, as they do not contain an obvious excess of hydrophobic amino acids in their N-terminal regions or in the intact molecule.

The capsid protein was found to be blocked, and so its N-terminus could not be sequenced by the usual methods. However, with the use of a special labeling technique, it was possible to incorporate tritiated acetate into the N-terminus of the protein with good specificity, which was useful in the purification of peptides from which the first amino acids in the N-terminal sequence could be identified.

Nanomole amounts of PE2, the intracellular precursor of E2, were purified by an immuno-affinity technique, and its N-terminus was analyzed. Together with other work, these results showed that PE2 is not synthesized with an N-terminal extension, and the signal sequence for translocation is probably the N-terminal amino acid sequence of the protein. This N-terminus was found to be 80-90% blocked, also by Nacetylation, and this acetylation did not affect its function as a signal sequence. The putative signal sequence was also found to contain a glycosylated asparagine residue, but the inhibition of this glycosylation did not lead to the cleavage of the sequence.

Algebraic Techniques in Coding Theory: Entropy Vectors, Frames, and Constrained Coding

The study of codes, classically motivated by the need to communicate information reliably in the presence of error, has found new life in fields as diverse as network communication, distributed storage of data, and even has connections to the design of linear measurements used in compressive sensing. But in all contexts, a code typically involves exploiting the algebraic or geometric structure underlying an application. In this thesis, we examine several problems in coding theory, and try to gain some insight into the algebraic structure behind them.

The first is the study of the entropy region - the space of all possible vectors of joint entropies which can arise from a set of discrete random variables. Understanding this region is essentially the key to optimizing network codes for a given network. To this end, we employ a group-theoretic method of constructing random variables producing so-called "group-characterizable" entropy vectors, which are capable of approximating any point in the entropy region. We show how small groups can be used to produce entropy vectors which violate the Ingleton inequality, a fundamental bound on entropy vectors arising from the random variables involved in linear network codes. We discuss the suitability of these groups to design codes for networks which could potentially outperform linear coding.

The second topic we discuss is the design of frames with low coherence, closely related to finding spherical codes in which the codewords are unit vectors spaced out around the unit sphere so as to minimize the magnitudes of their mutual inner products. We show how to build frames by selecting a cleverly chosen set of representations of a finite group to produce a "group code" as described by Slepian decades ago. We go on to reinterpret our method as selecting a subset of rows of a group Fourier matrix, allowing us to study and bound our frames' coherences using character theory. We discuss the usefulness of our frames in sparse signal recovery using linear measurements.

The final problem we investigate is that of coding with constraints, most recently motivated by the demand for ways to encode large amounts of data using error-correcting codes so that any small loss can be recovered from a small set of surviving data. Most often, this involves using a systematic linear error-correcting code in which each parity symbol is constrained to be a function of some subset of the message symbols. We derive bounds on the minimum distance of such a code based on its constraints, and characterize when these bounds can be achieved using subcodes of Reed-Solomon codes.