How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

Sources of stakeholder salience in the responsible investment movement: why do investors sign the Principles for Responsible Investment?

Since its inception in 2006, the United Nations-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) have grown to over 1300 signatories representing over $45 trillion. This growth is not slowing down. In this paper, we argue that there is a set of attributes which make the PRI salient as a stakeholder and its claim to sign the six PRI important to institutional investors. We use Mitchell et al.’s (Acad Manag Rev 22:853–886, 1997) theoretical framework of stakeholder salience, as extended by Gifford (J Bus Eth 92:79–97, 2010). We use as evidence confidential data from the annual survey of signatories carried out by the PRI in a 5-year period between 2007 and 2011. The findings highlight pragmatic and organizational legitimacy, normative and utilitarian power, and management values as the attributes that contribute most to the salience of the PRI as a stakeholder.

Selective environmental stress caused by magmatic sulfur emissions from continental flood basalt eruptions

Several biotic crises during the past 300 million years have been linked to episodes of continental flood basalt volcanism, and in particular to the release of massive quantities of magmatic sulphur gas species. Flood basalt provinces were typically formed by numerous individual eruptions, each lasting years to decades. However, the environmental impact of these eruptions may have been limited by the occurrence of quiescent periods that lasted hundreds to thousands of years. Here we use a global aerosol model to quantify the sulphur-induced environmental effects of individual, decade-long flood basalt eruptions representative of the Columbia River Basalt Group, 16.5–14.5 million years ago, and the Deccan Traps, 65 million years ago. For a decade-long eruption of Deccan scale, we calculate a decadal-mean reduction in global surface temperature of 4.5 K, which would recover within 50 years after an eruption ceased unless climate feedbacks were very different in deep-time climates. Acid mists and fogs could have caused immediate damage to vegetation in some regions, but acid-sensitive land and marine ecosystems were well-buffered against volcanic sulphur deposition effects even during century-long eruptions. We conclude that magmatic sulphur from flood basalt eruptions would have caused a biotic crisis only if eruption frequencies and lava discharge rates had been high and sustained for several centuries at a time.

A Lagrangian identification of major sources of moisture over Central Brazil and La Plata Basin

[1] This work examines the main sources of moisture over Central Brazil and La Plata Basin during the year through a new Lagrangian diagnosis method which identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along back-trajectories for the previous 10 d. The origin of all air masses residing over each region was tracked during a period of 5 years (2000-2004). These regions were selected because they coincide with two centers of action of a known dipole precipitation variability mode observed in different temporal scales (from intra seasonal up to inter decadal timescales) and are related to the climatic variability of the South American Monsoon System. The results suggested the importance of the tropical south Atlantic as a moisture source for Central Brazil, and of recycling for La Plata basin. It seems that the Tropical South Atlantic plays an important role as a moisture source for Central Brazil and La Plata basin along the year, particularly during the austral summer. The north Atlantic is also an additional source for both regions during the austral summer.

The spiral structure of the Galaxy revealed by CS sources and evidence for the 4:1 resonance

We present a map of the spiral structure of the Galaxy, as traced by molecular carbon monosulphide (CS) emission associated with IRAS sources which are believed to be compact H II regions. The CS line velocities are used to determine the kinematic distances of the sources in order to investigate their distribution in the galactic plane. This allows us to use 870 objects to trace the arms, a number larger than that of previous studies based on classical H II regions. The distance ambiguity of the kinematic distances, when it exists, is solved by different procedures, including the latitude distribution and an analysis of the longitude-velocity diagram. The study of the spiral structure is complemented with other tracers: open clusters, Cepheids, methanol masers and H II regions. The well-defined spiral arms are seen to be confined inside the corotation radius, as is often the case in spiral galaxies. We identify a square-shaped sub-structure in the CS map with that predicted by stellar orbits at the 4:1 resonance (four epicycle oscillations in one turn around the galactic centre). The sub-structure is found at the expected radius, based on the known pattern rotation speed and epicycle frequency curve. An inner arm presents an end with strong inwards curvature and intense star formation that we tentatively associate with the region where this arm surrounds the extremity of the bar, as seen in many barred galaxies. Finally, a new arm with concave curvature is found in the Sagitta to Cepheus region of the sky. The observed arms are interpreted in terms of perturbations similar to grooves in the gravitational potential of the disc, produced by crowding of stellar orbits.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Rapid and slow modulation of nitrate reductase activity in the red macroalga Gracilaria chilensis (Gracilariales, Rhodophyta): influence of different nitrogen sources

Nitrate is one of the most important stimuli in nitrate reductase (NR) induction, while ammonium is usually an inhibitor. We evaluated the influence of nitrate, ammonium or urea as nitrogen sources on NR activity of the agarophyte Gracilaria chilensis. The addition of nitrate rapidly (2 min) induced NR activity, suggesting a fast post-translational regulation. In contrast, nitrate addition to starved algae stimulated rapid nitrate uptake without a concomitant induction of NR activity. These results show that in the absence of nitrate, NR activity is negatively affected, while the nitrate uptake system is active and ready to operate as soon as nitrate is available in the external medium, indicating that nitrate uptake and assimilation are differentially regulated. The addition of ammonium or urea as nitrogen sources stimulated NR activity after 24 h, different from that observed for other algae. However, a decrease in NR activity was observed after the third day under ammonium or urea. During the dark phase, G. chilensis NR activity was low when compared to the light phase. A light pulse of 15 min during the dark phase induced NR activity 1.5-fold suggesting also fast post-translational regulation. Nitrate reductase regulation by phosphorylation and dephosphorylation, and by protein synthesis and degradation, were evaluated using inhibitors. The results obtained for G. chilensis show a post-translational regulation as a rapid response mechanism by phosphorylation and dephosphorylation, and a slower mechanism by regulation of RNA synthesis coupled to de novo NR protein synthesis.

Human Multipotent Mesenchymal Stromal Cells from Distinct Sources Show Different In Vivo Potential to Differentiate into Muscle Cells When Injected in Dystrophic Mice

Limb-girdle muscular dystrophies are a heterogeneous group of disorders characterized by progressive degeneration of skeletal muscle caused by the absence or deficiency of muscle proteins. The murine model of Limb-Girdle Muscular Dystrophy 2B, the SJL mice, carries a deletion in the dysferlin gene. Functionally, this mouse model shows discrete muscle weakness, starting at the age of 4-6 weeks. The possibility to restore the expression of the defective protein and improve muscular performance by cell therapy is a promising approach for the future treatment of progressive muscular dystrophies (PMD). We and others have recently shown that human adipose multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells (hASCs) can differentiate into skeletal muscle when in contact with dystrophic muscle cells in vitro and in vivo. Umbilical cord tissue and adipose tissue are known rich sources of multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs), widely used for cell-based therapy studies. The main objective of the present study is to evaluate if MSCs from these two different sources have the same potential to reach and differentiate in muscle cells in vivo or if this capability is influenced by the niche from where they were obtained. In order to address this question we injected human derived umbilical cord tissue MSCs (hUCT MSCs) into the caudal vein of SJL mice with the same protocol previously used for hASCs; we evaluated the ability of these cells to engraft into recipient dystrophic muscle after systemic delivery, to express human muscle proteins in the dystrophic host and their effect in functional performance. These results are of great interest for future therapeutic application.

Biosynthesis and characterization of biodegradable Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) from renewable sources

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) was produced in fed-batch cultures of Ralstonia eutropha DSM 428 and Alcaligenes latus ATCC 29712 on a mineral medium with different carbon sources such as sucrose, sodium lactate, lactic acid, soybean oil and fatty acid. The bacteria converted the different carbon sources supplied into P3HB. The best results were obtained when lactate or soybean oil were supplied as the sole carbon source. The range of number average molar mass (Mn) for the polymers, analyzed by Gel Permeation Chromatography was 1.65 to 0.79 x 10(5) g mol(-1). FTIR spectroscopy revealed a characteristic absorbance associated with polyester structures. The crystallinity degree, determinate from X-ray diffractograms, was about 69% in all synthesized polymers. The thermal properties associated to semicrystalline polymers indicated a glass transition at 0.1 degrees C and a melting point at about 175 degrees C and enthalpy of 63-89 J g(-1). The (1)H-NMR and (13)C-NMR spectra of the polymers were in agreement with the calculated chemical shifts associated with P3HB structures.

Influence of different light sources and photo-activation methods on degree of conversion and polymerization shrinkage of a nanocomposite resin

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of different light sources and photo-activation methods on degree of conversion (DC%) and polymerization shrinkage (PS) of a nanocomposite resin (Filtek (TM) Supreme XT, 3M/ESPE). Two light-curing units (LCUs), one halogen-lamp (QTH) and one light-emitting-diode (LED), and two different photo-activation methods (continuous and gradual) were investigated in this study. The specimens were divided in four groups: group 1-power density (PD) of 570 mW/cm(2) for 20 s (QTH); group 2-PD 0 at 570 mW/cm(2) for 10 s + 10 s at 570 mW/cm(2) (QTH); group 3-PD 860 mW/cm(2) for 20 s (LED), and group 4-PD 125 mW/cm(2) for 10 s + 10 s at 860 mW/cm(2) (LED). A testing machine EMIC with rectangular steel bases (6 x 1 x 2 mm) was used to record the polymerization shrinkage forces (MPa) for a period that started with the photo-activation and ended after two minutes of measurement. For each group, ten repetitions (n = 40) were performed. For DC% measurements, five specimens (n = 20) for each group were made in a metallic mold (2 mm thickness and 4 mm diameter, ISO 4049) and them pulverized, pressed with bromide potassium (KBr) and analyzed with FT-IR spectroscopy. The data of PS were analyzed by Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with Welch`s correction and Tamhane`s test. The PS means (MPa) were: 0.60 (G1); 0.47 (G2); 0.52 (G3) and 0.45 (G4), showing significant differences between two photo-activation methods, regardless of the light source used. The continuous method provided the highest values for PS. The data of DC% were analyzed by Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and shows significant differences for QTH LCUs, regardless of the photo-activation method used. The QTH provided the lowest values for DC%. The gradual method provides lower polymerization contraction, either with halogen lamp or LED. Degree of conversion (%) for continuous or gradual photo-activation method was influenced by the LCUs. Thus, the presented results suggest that gradual method photo-activation with LED LCU would suffice to ensure adequate degree of conversion and minimum polymerization shrinkage.

Orthodontic brackets removal under shear and tensile bond strength resistance tests - a comparative test between light sources

We have investigated if a new LEDs system has enough efficient energy to promote efficient shear and tensile bonding strength resistance under standardized tests. LEDs 470 +/- 10 nm can be used to photocure composite during bracket fixation. Advantages considering resistance to tensile and shear bonding strength when these systems were used are necessary to justify their clinical use. Forty eight human extracted premolars teeth and two light sources were selected, one halogen lamp and a LEDs system. Brackets for premolar were bonded through composite resin. Samples were submitted to standardized tests. A comparison between used sources under shear bonding strength test, obtained similar results; however, tensile bonding test showed distinct results: a statistical difference at a level of 1% between exposure times (40 and 60 seconds) and even to an interaction between light source and exposure time. The best result was obtained with halogen lamp use by 60 seconds, even during re-bonding; however LEDs system can be used for bonding and re-bonding brackets if power density could be increased.

Active galactic nuclei: sources for ultra high energy cosmic rays

Ultra high energy cosmic ray events presently show a spectrum, which we interpret here as galactic cosmic rays due to a starburst, in the radio galaxy Cen A which is pushed up in energy by the shock of a relativistic jet. The knee feature and the particles with energy immediately higher in galactic cosmic rays then turn into the bulk of ultra high energy cosmic rays. This entails that all ultra high energy cosmic rays are heavy nuclei. This picture is viable if the majority of the observed ultra high energy events come from the radio galaxy Cen A, and are scattered by intergalactic magnetic fields across much of the sky.