O credit scoring em apoio ao risco de crédito: a identificação de variáveis que contribuem no sucesso da implantação de empresas franqueadas

A concessão de crédito a empresas que participam do mercado consiste na entrega de um ativo em determinado momento, com a promessa de pagamento deste bem ou direito em data futura. Tal situação se configura como um evento incerto, pois existe a possibilidade de que tal obrigação não seja honrada pela promitente compradora, originando desta forma, o risco de crédito. Cabe à parte concessora do ativo que origina o risco de crédito, verificar a capacidade de seu cliente em cumprir o compromisso futuro assumido, analisando as variáveis que sugerem o sucesso da operação de crédito. As empresas que se encontram em fase de implantação caracterizam-se não somente pela ausência de histórico das variáveis acima, como também pelo aumento considerável do risco de continuidade. Tal situação é comprovada por pesquisas realizadas em empresas com até cinco anos de atuação. A impossibilidade na mensuração da capacidade de crédito proporcionada por este cenário, ocasiona severa restrição creditícia às empresas novas, principalmente ao crédito de longo prazo, imprescindível nesta fase de investimentos. Entretanto, esta restrição não se verifica em empresas de franquia, cujo empreendedor tem o privilégio de iniciar seu negócio com linhas de crédito de investimentos já prontas no mercado com esta finalidade. Este estudo objetiva identificar quais as características presentes em empresas franqueadas que permitem a concessão de crédito segura na fase de implantação por parte das instituições financeiras e se tais características podem discriminar variáveis que são determinantes no sucesso da franqueada proponente ao crédito bancário. A aplicação de análise fatorial em banco de dados com empresas de franquia permitiu identificar com sucesso um grupo de sete principais variáveis principais, que serviram de base a um modelo de regressão logística e análise discriminante. O modelo de regressão logística mostrou-se bom para a melhora da probabilidade de acerto de empresas solventes ao passo que a análise discriminante não apresentou melhora nesses resultados.

A Lei 11.638/2007 e a Harmonização de Práticas Contábeis em Empresas Multinacionais: Um Estudo de Caso sobre a Vale

O mundo transforma-se constantemente, assim como tudo o que nele está inserido. A evolução da economia possibilitou uma maior integração do mercado financeiro, tornando o ambiente de negócios único e global. É cada vez mais comum o ingresso de recursos estrangeiros nos mercados de capitais nacionais, bem como fusões e aquisições entre companhias de países distintos e com características próprias. Essas empresas, por sua vez, esforçam-se em adotar normas que atendam aos stakeholders, sem perder a obrigatoriedade de apresentar suas demonstrações contábeis em conformidade com as características do país em que estão sediadas. Com a unificação dos países da Europa em um único bloco econômico, vislumbrou-se a possibilidade de desenvolver normas que pudessem ser compreendidas e interpretadas pelos diversos usuários destas demonstrações contábeis, em qualquer lugar do globo. Assim criadas, as normas de IFRS International Financial Reporting Standards buscaram a redução de diferenças nas metodologias contábeis e na forma com que são divulgadas em cada país, permitindo a comparabilidade e evidenciação das informações ao mercado. O IFRS, atualmente, já é adotado por mais de 100 países no mundo. No Brasil, em 28 de dezembro de 2007, promulgou-se a Lei 11.638 eliminando barreiras regulatórias que impediam a inserção total das empresas brasileiras no processo de convergência contábil internacional e aproximando sua legislação referente às normas contábeis às do mundo globalizado. O objeto do presente estudo é apresentar as principais mudanças decorrentes dessa adoção e seus impactos na contabilidade das empresas brasileiras, tomando como exemplo a empresa Vale, multinacional brasileira com alto volume diário de negociações de suas ações em Bolsa de Valores, grande parte de investidores estrangeiros. Os assuntos controversos, definições e entendimentos que ainda serão deliberados até 2010, evidenciam que não houve tempo hábil para a discussão e preparação das empresas, do fisco, de profissionais do mundo empresarial e acadêmico, dos contadores e auditores, bem como dos órgãos reguladores. Apesar das aparentes dificuldades, o Brasil deu um grande salto na qualidade das informações prestadas e aproxima-se dos grandes investidores globais, capacitando-se para receber recursos que possibilitem o seu crescimento econômico e o seu papel no cenário mundial.

Markets, marketing and production issues for aquaculture in East Africa: the case of Uganda

Aquaculture is currently responsible for an insignificant proportion of total fish production in Uganda. However, given the increasing demand for fresh fish in urban and peri-urban araes, and threats to the supply of fish from natural catch fisheries, the potential exists for a strong market in aquaculture. Small-scale fish farmers located relatively close to markets or all-season roads, and who can supply consistent and high quality produce, will have the widest range of marketing opportunities, and will likely be within the area of operation of potential traders and intermediaries that deliver fish to markets. Fish farmers that are not close to roads, or produce unreliable quantities and variable quality products may face high transaction costs of marketing their product, and decreasing net returns to production. The authors found that significant on-farm labor, and access to input markets are important factors leading to positive net returns to fish production. Areas with high population density and relatively low wages will be well suited to labor intensive aquaculture. The authors concluded that aquaculture development has good potential in certain areas of Uganda and should therefore be pursued as a potential development pathway. However, policy makers should consider the importance of the price of fresh fish relative to the cost of labor, as well as other factors including the importance of smallholder credit and access to extension services, when directing investments in aquaculture technology.

Clam farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The Mekong Delta region in southern Vietnam has high potential for coastal aquaculture, including mollusc culture. Many mollusc species are cultured for domestic and export markets including white clam (Meretrix lyrata Showerby) and blood cockle (Arca granosa). Techniques for clam farming include the nursery and grow-out phases. At present, there are approximately 600 coastal families engaged in clam farming over a total area of 1,870 ha, of which 82.63% is used for the grow-out phased and 17.7% for the nursery phase. Nursery areas are near the coast and receive less than 5 hours of sunlight per day. The average area for a nursery is 3-4 ha and it is fenced with a net or bamboo stakes to prevent clams from escaping and to prevent water currents from carrying them away. Grow-out farm areas are further from the coast and are exposed to sunlight for only 2-3 hours/day. Average farm area for grow-out is 5-6 ha, and may or may not be fenced. Average operating cost is US$1100 per ha for nursery and US$757 per ha for grow-out (the cost of capital assets are not included) with loans being the main source of financial. Problems for clam farmers in the area include natural phenomena, inadequate culture techniques, lack of financing or credit systems, and marketing. Environment-related problems that cause clam mortality include flooding, and freshwater effluent and siltation or sedimentation from Mekong River. Other problems that constrain the development of clam culture in the area are: marketing problems such as lack of buyers and price fluctuations; exploitation of the natural clam populations.

O Estado como investidor institucional: a disciplina jurídica de uma atuação estatal não interventiva na economia

Em um contexto de demandas sociais tendencialmente crescentes, uma das alternativas para o aumento da arrecadação de receitas pelo Estado reside no manejo de aplicações financeiras. Os investimentos financeiros estatais, a rigor, já acontecem, mas nem sempre o objetivo claro e explícito de obtenção de resultados financeiramente interessantes e, eventualmente ou mesmo por isso , sob gestão economicamente ineficiente. Às vezes, até se enxerga o foco na obtenção de rendimentos relevantes na ação estatal, mas sem uma disciplina específica, o que pode abrir espaço a uma gestão de ativos desqualificada ou mesmo fraudulenta, com sérios prejuízos aos cofres públicos e, em situações extremas, ampliação ainda maior das despesas públicas. O objetivo desta tese, portanto, é reconhecer que nem sempre o Estado atua na economia com propósito interventivo e que, na qualidade de investidor institucional vale dizer, de ente que tem o dever de proceder aos investimentos e às aplicações financeiras que digam com as melhores práticas de administração dos ativos públicos , precisa atuar sob o jugo de normas jurídicas claras, que permitam ao Estado ampliar suas receitas dentro de limites razoáveis de exposição a risco financeiro e disponibilizem aos órgãos de fiscalização e controle da Administração Pública as ferramentas necessárias para, também quanto a esse aspecto, aferir a eficiência da ação estatal. Para tanto, têm-se como pressupostos o anacronismo da resistência cultural às aplicações financeiras dos entes da Administração Pública e a noção de que quaisquer ferramentas de obtenção de receitas pelo Estado estão sujeitas a algum grau de risco. Com base nas bem-sucedidas experiências nacionais e internacionais, será possível concluir, ao final, que é admissível, do ponto de vista constitucional e legal, a ação do Estado como investidor nos mercados financeiro e de capitais e que é viável a formulação de parâmetros gerais para a disciplina jurídica do Estado investidor.

Financial assistance for purchase of large fishing vessels

The Government of Sri Lanka is improving off-shore and deep-shore fishing by introducing more sophisticated and larger vessels into the Sri Lanka waters, together with the offer of subsidies, tax holidays and other concessions to those who seek to operate such fishing vessels. As a first step, some thirty 38 foot class fishing vessels are to be introduced. The requisite variety and quantity of fishing gear is supplied together with the vessels, and operators will be given further assistance to either export or market their catches locally by provision of insulated fish transport vans, jeeps with trailers, crushed ice plants, fish storage cabinets and adequate spares for at least the next few years. A description is given of the credit terms offered for the purchase of such vessels, pre-shipment finance, and loans and hire purchase facilities.

Marketing of small indigenous species of fish (SIS) in three selected fish markets of Mymensingh

A socio-economic survey was conducted round the year in three fish markets at Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The selected markets were categorized as rural market (Sutiakhali market), a peri-urban market (Kamal Ranjeet market, BAU) and an urban market (Notun Bazar market, Mymensingh town). It was learnt from the survey that the availability of Small Indigenous Fish Species (SIS) declined to a great extent over the last few years and at presently many of such fish species are either threatened or at the edge of extinction. The supply of SIS was highest in KR market (37% of total) and more or less similar in Notun Bazar and Sutiakhali fish market (25 and 27% respectively). The total supply of SIS fluctuated from 25% to 35% throughout the year in these markets. About 48 SIS were found in the sampled markets over the survey period. The highest number of species (45) was found in KR market followed by Notun Bazar (42) and Sutiakhali (37) fish markets. During the survey, three critically endangered species namely, schilbid catfish, garua catfish and rita were found in these markets. Beside these, other 11 and 10 species were listed to be endangered and vulnerable respectively. The biodiversity of 21 SIS found in three markets were no threat at all. Three species (guntea loach, Indian glass barb and flying barb) were 'data deficient' as reported by the IUCN Red Book (IUCN-Bangladesh 2000). From the supply point of view small prawn, spotted snakehead, stinging catfish, pool barb, striped dwarf catfish, Gangetic mystus, walking catfish and tank goby were the prominent fish. The least available species found in this survey were lesser spiny eel, barred spiny eel, Gangetic ailia, freshwater garfish, zig-zag eel, flying barb, Ganges river sprat, freshwater river shad and dwarf gourami. The weight of SIS available in Notun bazar was highest and nearly double than other two markets. There was no significant difference recorded in the supply of SIS in Sutiakhali and KR markets. The average monthly SIS supply was 185, 192 and 467 kg in KR, Sutiakhali and Notun Bazar, respectively; therefore, the cumulative average supply was 844 kg per month in three markets. The price of SIS ranged widely from taka 50-450/kg depending on species, location of market, time of purchase and the condition of fish. In general small prawn, ticto barb, dwarf gourami, Gangetic leaffish, and Annandale loach were sold at a lower price (ranged taka 50-100/kg) and these species could be considered at the bottom of the market-price list. Other SIS like walking catfish, climbing parch, butter catfish, cotio and schilbid catfish valued as highest price (ranged taka 150-450/kg). There was no specific marketing chain for SIS in Mymensingh region. The components of marketing channels and their expansion varied with seasons and locations. The general pattern, however, was as this - after buying fish from fish farmer/fishermen, middlemen (locally known as Foria) used to buy fish to wholesale market and sell to the wholesalers. The retailers used to buy fish from wholesaler through auction to the highest bidders. The retailers then send the fish to particular market where the fish reached the consumers. The livelihood strategy of SIS retailers in three fish markets showed that socio-economic constraints such as low income, poor educational background, low economic status and lack of capital are the main constrains [sic]. Most of the retailers proposed that government should control the fish price throughout the year, so that the producers can get reasonable and stable price. Construction of cold storage and preservation facilities at market sites, improvement of road and communication, improvement of physical market facilities and reduction of market chain is essential. Credit facilities, improvement of their standard of living, health and sanitary condition, housing condition, children education and access to drinking water facilities were identified as additional aspects to improve socio-economic condition of SIS retailers.

Evaluation of resources to support production of high quality health information for patients and the public. Final report for NHS Research Outputs Programme

Durbin, J., Urquhart, C. & Yeoman, A. (2003). Evaluation of resources to support production of high quality health information for patients and the public. Final report for NHS Research Outputs Programme. Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth. Sponsorship: Department of Health

Credit and Debt in medieval England, c.1180-c.1350

Schofield, Phillipp, and N. J. Mayhew, eds., Credit and Debt in medieval England, c.1180-c.1350 (Oxford: Oxbow Books, 2002), pp.x+164 RAE2008

The impact of investor sentiment on stock returns in emerging markets. The case of Central European markets

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Eastern European Economics on July 2015, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1079139

Using Markets and Spam to Combat Malware

We propose an economic mechanism to reduce the incidence of malware that delivers spam. Earlier research proposed attention markets as a solution for unwanted messages, and showed they could provide more net benefit than alternatives such as filtering and taxes. Because it uses a currency system, Attention Bonds faces a challenge. Zombies, botnets, and various forms of malware might steal valuable currency instead of stealing unused CPU cycles. We resolve this problem by taking advantage of the fact that the spam-bot problem has been reduced to financial fraud. As such, the large body of existing work in that realm can be brought to bear. By drawing an analogy between sending and spending, we show how a market mechanism can detect and prevent spam malware. We prove that by using a currency (i) each instance of spam increases the probability of detecting infections, and (ii) the value of eradicating infections can justify insuring users against fraud. This approach attacks spam at the source, a virtue missing from filters that attack spam at the destination. Additionally, the exchange of currency provides signals of interest that can improve the targeting of ads. ISPs benefit from data management services and consumers benefit from the higher average value of messages they receive. We explore these and other secondary effects of attention markets, and find them to offer, on the whole, attractive economic benefits for all – including consumers, advertisers, and the ISPs.

The Irish credit union movement: member participation and organisational effectiveness

This thesis explores the relationship between organisational effectiveness and member participation in Irish credit unions. It is hypothesised that a positive relationship exists between both variables. Co-operative literature suggests that co-operatives require the involvement of the members in identifying and meeting their own needs in order to be effective organisations. Previous research studies into the issue across a variety of organisational types have shown mixed results. Related research into credit unions is sparse. The primary research undertaken is both quantitative and qualitative in approach. Organisational effectiveness is examined in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Member participation, being an organisational process, is examined in qualitative terms. Indicators of organisational effectiveness, specific to credit unions, are drawn up and form a framework through which effectiveness is examined. A typology and indicators of member participation are also developed and form a framework through which member participation is examined. The case study method is used primarily, to examine organisational effectiveness and member participation in Irish credit unions. A case study of a theoretical credit union, which is based on a composite of good practice in credit unions in Ireland and internationally, is also drawn up to develop the analysis further. The case studies allow an analysis of both organisational effectiveness and member participation, as well as an exploration of the relationship between the two. The findings support the hypothesis that there is a direct relationship between the two variables. In order to be effective, credit unions must involve their members in identifying their needs and in designing services to meet these needs. At present, they do not do this to any large extent. In order to continue to meet the needs of their members and to compete in the financial services sector, credit unions will need to find ways of involving members, drawing on good practice in other co-operatives. This will be critical to their continued success.

The impact of saving and credit cooperatives on food security in the West Amhara Region of Ethiopia

In rural Ethiopia, among other things, lack of adequate financial service is considered as the basic problem to alleviate rural poverty and to solve the problem of food insecurity. Commercial banks are restricted to urban centres. Providing rural financial service through RUSACCO to the poor has been proposed as a tool for economic development and for achieving food security. Evidence from research in this regard has been so far scanty, especially in rural Ethiopia. The aims of this study are to analyze the determinants of membership, to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors that influence members’ participation in RUSACCOs and to quantify the impact of RUSACCOs on member households’ food security. The study was conducted in two purposely selected woredas in the Amhara region one from food insecure (Lay Gayint woreda) and the other from food secure (Dejen woreda). Six RUSACCOs were selected randomly from these two woredas. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected. Key informant interviews, focus group discussions and survey techniques were used to collect primary data. Collected data was then analyzed using mixed methods depending on the nature of data. For quantitative data analysis appropriate statistical models were used. The study result reveals that the number of members in each RUSACCO is very small. However, the majority of non-member respondents are willing to join RUSACCO. Lack of information about the benefits of RUSACCO membership is the main problem why many rural poor do not join RUSACCOs. Members participate in different aspects of the cooperatives, starting from attending general assembly up to board membership. They also participate actively in saving and borrowing activities of RUSACCO. The majority of the respondents believe the RUSACCO is a vital instrument in combating food insecurity. The empirical findings indicate that gender, marital status, occupation, educational level, participation in local leadership and participation in other income generation means determine the decision of rural poor to join a RUSACCO or not. The amount of saving is determined by household head occupation, farming experience and income level. While age of household head, primary occupation, farming experience, date of membership, annual total consumption expenditure, amount of saving and participation in other income generation activities influence members’ amount of borrowing by RUSACCO members. Finally, the study confirms that RUSACCO participation improves household food security. RUSACCO membership has made positive impact on household total consumption expenditure and food expenditure.

Trade credit linkages along the supply chain: evidence for the Italian textile sector

We examine the trade credit linkages among firms within a supply chain to reckon the effect of such linkages on the propagation of liquidity shocks from downstream to upstream firms. We choose a sample appropriate for this task, consisting of a large data set of Italian firms from the textile industry, a well known example of a comprehensive manufacturing cluster featuring a large number of small and specialized firms at each level of the supply chain. The results of the analysis indicate that the level of trade credit that firms provide to their suppliers is positively related to the level of trade credit granted to their clients: when the level of trade credit granted to clients divided by sales goes up by 1, the level of trade credit provided to suppliers divided by cost-of goods-sold goes up by an amount that varies between 0,22 and 0,52. Since all firms along the chain are linked by trade credit relationships, an increase in the level of trade credit granted by wholesalers generates a liquidity cascade throughout the chain. We designate the overall increase in the level of trade credit among all firms in the chain as a result of a unitary impulse in the level of trade credit granted by wholesalers as the multiplier effect of trade credit for the industry chain. We estimate such multiplier to vary between 1.28 and 2.04. We also investigate the effect of final demand on the level of trade credit sourced by firms at various levels of the chain and, in particular, whether such effect is amplified for firms further up in the chain as a result of liquidity propagation via trade credit linkages. We uncover evidence of such amplification when the links of liquidity transmission along the chain are individually modeled and estimated. An unitary increase in wholesalers’ sales is found to produce an effect on trade payables among firms at the top of the chain (i.e., Preparers and Spinners) that is more than twice as big as the corresponding effect among firms at the bottom of the chain (i.e., Wholesalers).

Technology and the architecture of markets: re-configuring the Canadian equity market

This paper examines the relation between technical possibilities, liberal logics, and the concrete reconfiguration of markets. It focuses on the enrolling of innovations in communication and information technologies into the markets traditionally dominated by stock exchanges. With the development of capacities to trade on-screen, the power of incumbent market makers has been challenged as a less stable array of competing quasi-public and private marketplaces emerges. Developing a case study of the Toronto Stock Exchange, I argue that narrative emphasis on the performative power of sociotechnical innovations, the deterritorialisation of financial relations, and the erosion of state capacities needs qualification. A case is made for the importance of developing an understanding of: the spaces of encounter between emerging social technologies and property rights, rules of exchange, and structures of governance; and the interplay of orderings of different institutional composition and spatial reach in the reconfiguration of market architectures. Only then can a better grasp be gained of the evolving dynamics between making markets, the regulatory powers of the state, and their delimitations.