Credit borrowing constraints in a DSGE framework: income vs. housing

Credit market in Brazil distinguishes from advanced economies in many aspects. One of them is related to collaterals for households borrowing. This work proposes a DSGE framework, based on Gerali et al.(2010), to analyse one pecularity of Brazillian credit market: payroll-deducted personal loans. To original model, we added the possibility to households contract long term debt and compare to differents types of credit constrains: one based on housing and other based on future income. We callibrate and estimate the model to Brazil, using Bayesian technique. Results show that, in a economy where credit constraints are based on income, responses to shocks appear to be stronger, at first, but dissipate faster. This occurs because income responds quickly to shock than housing prices, so does amount available to loans. In order to smooth consumption, agents compensate lower income and borrowing by increasing working hours, restoring loans and debt in a shorter time.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Firm financial constraints and the impact of monetary policy: evidence from financial conglomerates

Building on recent evidence on the functioning of internal capital markets in financial conglomerates, this paper conducts a novel test of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. It does so by comparing monetary policy responses of small banks that are affiliated with the same bank holding company, and this arguably face similar constraints in accessing internal/external sources of funds, but that operate in different geographical regions, and thus face different pools of borrowers. Because these subsidiaries typically concentrate their lending with small local businesses, we can use cross-sectional differences in state-level economic indicators at the time of changes of monetary policy to study whether or not the strength of borrowers' balance sheets influences the response of bank lending. We find evidence that the negative response of bank loan growth to a monetary contraction is significantly stronger when borrowers have 'weak balance sheets. Our evidence suggests that the monetary authority should consider the amplification effects that financial constraints play following changes in basic interest rates and the role of financial conglomerates in the transmission of monetary policy.

Household borrowing constraints and monetary policy in emerging economies

Credit markets in emerging economies can be distinguished from those in advanced economies in many respects, including the collateral required for households to borrow. This work proposes a DSGE framework to analyze one peculiarity that characterizes the credit markets of some emerging markets: payroll-deducted personal loans. We add the possibility for households to contract long-term debt and compare two different types of credit constraints with one another, one based on housing and the other based on future income. We estimate the model for Brazil using a Bayesian technique. The model is able to solve a puzzle of the Brazilian economy: responses to monetary shocks at first appear to be strong but dissipate quickly. This occurs because income – and the amount available for loans – responds more rapidly to monetary shocks than housing prices. To smooth consumption, agents (borrowers) compensate for lower income and for borrowing by working more hours to repay loans and erase debt in a shorter time. Therefore, in addition to the income and substitution effects, workers consider the effects on their credit constraints when deciding how much labor to supply, which becomes an additional channel through which financial frictions affect the economy.

The Effect of Residence Time on the Tensile Properties of Superelastic and Thermal Activated Ni-Ti Orthodontic Wires

Since the 1980s, different devices based on superelastic alloys have been developed to fulfill orthodontic applications. Particularly in the last decades several researches have been carried out to evaluate the mechanical behavior of Ni-Ti alloys, including their tensile, torsion and fatigue properties. However, studies regarding the dependence of elastic properties on residence time of Ni-Ti wires in the oral cavity are scarce. Such approach is essential since metallic alloys are submitted to mechanical stresses during orthodontic treatment as well as pH and temperature fluctuations. The goal of the present contribution is to provide elastic stress-strain results to guide the orthodontic choice between martensitic thermal activated and austenitic superelastic Ni-Ti alloys. From the point of view of an orthodontist, the selection of appropriate materials and the correct maintenance of the orthodontic apparatus are essential needs during clinical treatment. The present work evaluated the elastic behavior of Ni-Ti alloy wires with diameters varying from 0.014 to 0.020 inches, submitted to hysteresis tensile tests with 8% strain. Tensile tests were performed after periods of use of 1, 2 and 3 months in the oral cavity of patients submitted to orthodontic treatment. The results from the hysteresis tests allowed to exam the strain range covered by isostress lines upon loading and unloading, as well as the residual strain after unloading for both superelastic and thermal activated Ni-Ti wires. Superelastic Ni-Ti wires exhibited higher load isostress values compared to thermal activated wires. It was found that such differences in the load isostress values can increase with increasing residence time.

Effects of nitrous oxide on IOP and pupillary diameter in dogs anesthetized with varying concentrations of desflurane

Objective The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of nitrous oxide on TOP and pupillary diameter (PD) of dogs anesthetized with varying desflurane concentrations.Animals studied Twenty adult Mongrel dogs were used.Methods They were anesthetized with propofol (10 mg/kg, IV) and maintained with varying concentrations of desflurane (1.6, 1.4, and 1.2 MAC diluted in 100% oxygen (G1) or in 70% nitrous oxide and 30% oxygen (G2) (30 mL/kg/min). TOP was measured by applanation tonometry and horizontal PD was taken with a caliper adjacent to the cornea. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), and end-tidal CO, (etCO(2)) were also measured. All parameters were measured at TO, T30, T45, and T60 time points. One-way repeated measures ANOVA and the t-test were used to assess statistical differences (P < 0.05).Results T30, T45, and T60 TOP measures were Within normal limits for both groups and TOP did not differ between groups at any time. There was a significant decrease in PD in G I between TO and T30, T45 and T60, and also between T30 and T60. PD did not differ between groups. All vital parameters were within normal limits throughout anesthesia.Conclusions Administration of nitrous oxide with desflurane results in maintenance of normal TOP and prevents a decrease in horizontal PD during anesthesia. Therefore, this may be a suitable protocol in dogs undergoing intraocular surgeries that require mydriasis and maintenance of normal TOP.

Setor escuro do universo: uma análise termodinâmica

Significant observational effort has been directed to unveiling the nature of the so-called dark energy. However, given the large number of theoretical possibilities, it is possible that this a task cannot be based only on observational data. In this thesis we investigate the dark energy via a thermodynamics approach, i.e., we discuss some thermodynamic properties of this energy component assuming a general time-dependent equation-of-state (EoS) parameter w(a) = w0 + waf(a), where w0 and wa are constants and f(a) may assume different forms. We show that very restrictive bounds can be placed on the w0 - wa space when current observational data are combined with the thermodynamic constraints derived. Moreover, we include a non-zero chemical potential μ and a varying EoS parameter of the type ω(a) = ω0 + F(a), therefore more general, in this thermodynamical description. We derive generalized expressions for the entropy density and chemical potential, noting that the dark energy temperature T and μ evolve in the same way in the course of the cosmic expansion. The positiveness of entropy S is used to impose thermodynamic bounds on the EoS parameter ω(a). In particular, we find that a phantom-like behavior ω(a) < −1 is allowed only when the chemical potential is a negative quantity (μ < 0). Thermodynamically speaking, a complete treatment has been proposed, when we address the interaction between matter and energy dark

Feeding selectivity of ichthyofauna in a tropical stream: space-time variations in trophic plasticity

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of artificial substratum types and exposure time on macroalgal colonization in a tropical stream

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Resonances in a trapped 3D Bose-Einstein condensate under periodically varying atomic scattering length

Nonlinear oscillations of a 3D radial symmetric Bose-Einstein condensate under periodic variation in time of the atomic scattering length have been studied. The time-dependent variational approach is used for the analysis of the characteristics of nonlinear resonances in the oscillations of the condensate. The bistability in oscillations of the BEC width is investigated. The dependence of the BEC collapse threshold on the drive amplitude and parameters of the condensate and trap is found. Predictions of the theory are confirmed by numerical simulations of the full Gross-Pitaevskii equation.

Mass varying neutrinos in supernovae

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Penetration time of Salmonella Heidelberg through shells of white and brown commercial eggs

This study aimed at determining the minimum time required for the penetration of Salmonella Heidelberg inside the eggs after contact with contaminated material. Recently-collected brown and white eggs from laying hens between 45-50 weeks of age, reared in a commercial poultry house, were artificially contaminated by contact with wood shavings moistened with liquid inoculum of Salmonella Heidelberg in stationary-growth phase (10³-10(4) CFU g-1). According to type (white or brown), eggs were distributed into three different groups, with four replicates each: negative control group (no artificial contamination), positive control group (analyzed externally immediately after contamination and internally after the maximum storage period of the test group) and test group. Eggs were stored at controlled environmental temperature varying from 25ºC to 30ºC. In the test group, eggs contents (yolk and albumen) were pooled and analyzed after 1:00, 1:30, 2:00, 2:30, 3:00, 3:30, and 4:00 hours after contamination for the presence of Salmonella Heidelberg in 25g of this pool. The experimental unit consisted of five eggs in each test. The analysis protocol included pre-enrichment, selective enrichment, plating on selective agar, and biochemical and serological tests. The results obtained were submitted to logistic regression, which indicated that the presence of Salmonella Heidelberg was verified after 2:16 h and 2:44 h of contact with white and brown eggs, respectively.

Real-time optical monitoring of the dip coating process

A significant part of film production by the coating industry is based on wet bench processes, where better understanding of their temporal dynamics could facilitate control and optimization. In this work, in situ laser interferometry is applied to study properties of flowing liquids and quantitatively monitor the dip coating batch process. Two oil standards Newtonian, non-volatile, with constant refractive indices and distinct flow properties - were measured under several withdrawing speeds. The dynamics of film physical thickness then depends on time as t(-1/2), and flow characterization becomes possible with high precision (linear slope uncertainty of +/-0.04%). Resulting kinematic viscosities for OP60 and OP400 are 1,17 +/- 0,03. St and 9,9 +/- 0,2 St, respectively. These results agree with nominal values, as provided by the manufacturer. For more complex films (a multi-component sol-gel Zirconyl Chloride aqueous solution) with a varying refractive index, through a direct polarimetric measurement, allowing also determination of the temporal evolution of physical thickness (uncertainty of +/- 0,007 microns) is also determined during dip coating.

TIME-OPTIMAL GEOMAGNETIC ATTITUDE MANEUVERS OF AN AXISYMMETRICAL SPINNING SATELLITE

A formulation used to determine the time-optimal geomagnetic attitude maneuvers subject to dynamic and geometric constraints is proposed in this paper. This was obtained by a direct search procedure based on a control function parametrization method, using linear programming to obtain numerical suboptimal solutions by linear perturbation. Due to its characteristics it can be used in small computers and to generate computer programs of general application. The dynamic modeling, the magnetic torque model and the suboptimal control procedure are presented. Simulation runs have verified the feasibility of the formulation thus derived and have shown a notable improvement in performance.

ENERGY GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING MODEL CONSIDERING EMISSIONS CONSTRAINTS

The generation expansion planning (GEP) problem consists in determining the type of technology, size, location and time at which new generation units must be integrated to the system, over a given planning horizon, to satisfy the forecasted energy demand. Over the past few years, due to an increasing awareness of environmental issues, different approaches to solve the GEP problem have included some sort of environmental policy, typically based on emission constraints. This paper presents a linear model in a dynamic version to solve the GEP problem. The main difference between the proposed model and most of the works presented in the specialized literature is the way the environmental policy is envisaged. Such policy includes: i) the taxation of CO(2) emissions, ii) an annual Emissions Reduction Rate (ERR) in the overall system, and iii) the gradual retirement of old inefficient generation plants. The proposed model is applied in an 11-region to design the most cost-effective and sustainable 10-technology US energy portfolio for the next 20 years.