Modelling trajectories through the educational system in North West England

The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and 'A'-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we find no evidence of any locality-level effects. Overall, none of the explanatory variables conventionally considered to affect educational attainment had a consistent effect across all three stages. Rather, each explanatory variable had a contingent effect at specific points within the overall trajectory of educational outcomes.

D3.1 Benefits Analysis of the Initial Operational Cruiser-Feeder Concept

The REsearch on a CRuiser Enabled Air Transport Environment (RECREATE) project is considers the introduction and airworthiness of cruiser-feeder operations for civil aircraft. Cruiser-feeder operations are investigated as a promising pioneering idea for the air transport of the future. The soundness of the concept of cruiser-feeder operations for civil aircraft can be understood, taking air-to-air refueling operations as an example. For this example, a comprehensive estimate of the benefits can be made, which shows a fuel burn reduction potential and a CO2 emission reduction of 31% for a typical 6000 nautical miles flight with a payload of 250 passengers. This reduction potential is known to be large by any standard. The top level objective of the RECREATE project is to demonstrate on a preliminary design level that cruiser-feeder operations (as a concept to reduce fuel burn and CO2 emission levels) can be shown to comply with the airworthiness requirements for civil aircraft. The underlying Scientific and Technological (S&T) objectives are to determine and study airworthy operational concepts for cruiser-feeder operations, and to derive and quantify benefits in terms of CO2 emission reduction but also other benefits.

Work Package (WP) 3 has the objective to substantiate the assumed benefits of the cruiser/feeder operations through refined analysis and simulation. In this report, initial benefits evaluation of the initial RECREATE cruiser/feeder concepts is presented. The benefits analysis is conducted in delta mode, i.e. comparison is made with a baseline system. Since comparing different aircraft and air transport systems is never a trivial task, appropriate measures and metrics are defined and selected first. Non-dimensional parameters are defined and values for the baseline system derived.

The impact of cruiser/feeder operations such as air-to-air refueling are studied with respect to fuel-burn (or carbon-dioxide), noise and congestion. For this purpose, traffic simulations have been conducted.
Cruiser/feeder operations will have an impact on dispatch reliability as well. An initial assessment of the effect on dispatch reliability has been made and is reported.

Finally, a considerable effort has been made to create the infrastructure for economic delta analysis of the cruiser/feeder concept of operation. First results of the cost analysis have been obtained.

Physical activity and the rejuvenation of Connswater (PARC study): protocol for a natural experiment investigating the impact of urban regeneration on public health

Background: There is a dearth of evidence regarding the impact of urban regeneration projects on public health, particularly the nature and degree to which urban regeneration impacts upon health-related behaviour change. Natural experiment methodology enables comprehensive large-scale evaluations of such interventions. The Connswater Community Greenway in Belfast is a major urban regeneration project involving the development of a 9 km linear park, including the provision of new cycle paths and walkways. In addition to the environmental improvements, this complex intervention involves a number of programmes to promote physical activity in the regenerated area. The project affords a unique opportunity to investigate the public health impact of urban regeneration.

Methods/Design: The evaluation framework was informed by the socio-ecological model and guided by the RE-AIM Framework. Key components include: (1) a quasi-experimental before-and-after survey of the Greenway population (repeated cross-sectional design), in tandem with data from a parallel Northern Ireland-wide survey for comparison; (2) an assessment of changes in the local built environment and of walkability using geographic information systems; (3) semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of survey respondents, and a range of community stakeholders, before and after the regeneration project; and (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis. The primary outcome is change in proportion of individuals identified as being regularly physically active, according to the current UK recommendations. The RE-AIM Framework will be used to make an overall assessment of the impact of the Greenway on the physical activity behaviour of local residents.

Discussion: The Connswater Community Greenway provides a significant opportunity to achieve long-term, population level behaviour change. We argue that urban regeneration may be conceptualised meaningfully as a complex intervention comprising multiple components with the potential, individually and interactively, to affect the behaviour of a diverse population. The development and implementation of our comprehensive evaluation framework reflects this complexity and illuminates an approach to the empirical, rigorous evaluation of urban regeneration. More specifically, this study will add to the much needed evidence-base about the impact of urban regeneration on public health as well as having important implications for the development of natural experiment methodology.

Endodontic 'solutions' part 1:A literature review on the use of endodontic lubricants, irrigants and medicaments

Endodontic lubricants, irrigants and medicaments help prepare and disinfect root canal systems (RCS) but primary and secondary cases involve different microbes and therefore it is unlikely that one protocol will be effective for both case types. Each individual 'solution' or sequence of 'solutions' could play a significant role in each case type, but there are no detailed published guidelines in existence. To help inform clinical practice it was decided to undertake a literature review followed by a UK and Republic of Ireland wide audit on current endodontic 'solution' usage within dental schools. The literature review was undertaken under the following headings: pre-op oral rinse; file lubricants; root canal irrigants and intracanal medicaments and provides an evidence base for protocol development for both primary and retreatment cases. The audit project and the protocols developed from the findings of both the literature review and audit will be presented in Part 2.

Politically sensitive encounters: Ethnography, access and the benefits of ‘hanging out’

Negotiating politically sensitive research environments requires both a careful consideration of the methods involved, and a great deal of personal resolve. In drawing upon two distinct yet comparable fieldwork experiences this paper champions the benefits of ethnographic methods in seeking to gain positionality and research legitimacy amongst those identified as future research participants. The authors explore and discuss their use of the ethnographic concept of ‘hanging out’ in politically sensitive environments when seeking to negotiate access to potentially hard to reach participants living in challenging research environments. Through an illustrative examination of their experiences in researching commemorative rituals in Palestine and mental health in a Northern Irish prison, both authors reflect upon their use of hanging out when seeking to break down barriers and gain acceptance amongst their target research participants. Their involvement in a range of activities, not directly related to the overall aims of the research project, highlight a need for qualitative researchers to adopt a flexible research design, one that embraces serendipitous or chance encounters, when seeking to gain access to hard to reach research participants or when issues of researcher legitimacy are particularly pronounced such as is the case in politically sensitive research environments.

Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa: initiating a regional research network and integrated hydrogeologic, climatic & socio-economic observatories in coastal aquifers of the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania

African coastal regions are expected to experience the highest rates of population growth in coming decades. Fresh groundwater resources in the coastal zone of East Africa (EA) are highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion. Increasing water demand is leading to unsustainable and ill-planned well drilling and abstraction. Wells supplying domestic, industrial and agricultural needs are or have become, in many areas, too saline for use. Climate change, including weather changes and sea level rise, is expected to exacerbate this problem. The multiplicity of physical, demographic and socio-economic driving factors makes this a very challenging issue for management. At present the state and probable evolution of coastal aquifers in EA are not well documented. The UPGro project 'Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa' brings together teams from Kenya, Tanzania, Comoros Islands and Europe to address this knowledge gap. An integrative multidisciplinary approach, combining the expertise of hydrogeologists, hydrologists and social scientists, is investigating selected sites along the coastal zone in each country. Hydrogeologic observatories have been established in different geologic and climatic settings representative of the coastal EA region, where focussed research will identify the current status of groundwater and identify future threats based on projected demographic and climate change scenarios. Researchers are also engaging with end users as well as local community and stakeholder groups in each area in order to understanding the issues most affecting the communities and searching sustainable strategies for addressing these.

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

STARTEC: Novel processing technologies in the development of a decision support tool to ensure safe and nutritious Ready-To-Eat foods

Ready-to-eat (RTE) foods can be readily consumed with minimum or without any further preparation; their processing is complex—involving thorough decontamination processes— due to their composition of mixed ingredients. Compared with conventional preservation technologies, novel processing technologies can enhance the safety and quality of these complex products by reducing the risk of pathogens and/ or by preserving related health-promoting compounds. These novel technologies can be divided into two categories: thermal and non-thermal. As a non-thermal treatment, High Pressure Processing is a very promising novel methodology that can be used even in the already packaged RTE foods. A new “volumetric” microwave heating technology is an interesting cooking and decontamination method directly applied to foods. Cold Plasma technology is a potential substitute of chlorine washing in fresh vegetable decontamination. Ohmic heating is a heating method applicable to viscous products but also to meat products. Producers of RTE foods have to deal with challenging decisions starting from the ingredients suppliers to the distribution chain. They have to take into account not only the cost factor but also the benefits and food products’ safety and quality. Novel processing technologies can be a valuable yet large investment for several SME food manufacturers, but they need support data to be able to make adequate decisions. Within the FP7 Cooperation funded by the European Commission, the STARTEC project aims to develop an IT decision supporting tool to help food business operators in their risk assessment and future decision making when producing RTE foods with or without novel preservation technologies.

Social Services of General Interest: The EU Competence Regime and a Constitution of Social Governance

In discussing the potential role of the EU, the Member States, their composite parts and civil society organisations in establishing social services of general interest at sub-national, national, transnational and EU wide levels, this chapter explores the EU competence regime for social services of general interest. Its analysis contradicts a tendency in academic writing to demand protection of national prerogatives for shaping welfare states against EU intervention at all costs, because this would be counterproductive for the progress of the EU project. It submits that an EU constitution of social governance should create mixed responsibilities so that the EU, states and civil society actors support each other in creating preconditions for social integration in the EU. It uses the field of social services of general interests as an example of applying this general theoretical concept.

An investigation into the factors influencing tooth brushing behaviour amongst school children living in Northern Ireland: An application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

Background: Northern Ireland has the worst oral health in the UK and its children have among the highest levels of tooth decay in Europe (DHSSPS, 2007).
Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing tooth brushing behaviour among Year 6 primary schoolchildren using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB).
Method: Seven semi-structured focus groups involving 56 children were conducted during which children were asked questions about the factors that influence whether or not they brush their teeth. Thematic analysis was used with the purpose of eliciting the belief-based measures for all the TPB constructs.
Results: The findings suggest that children are knowledgeable about their teeth and are aware of the importance of maintaining good oral health; although a number of barriers to consistent tooth brushing exist.
Discussion: The findings will be used to inform stage 2 of the research project; questionnaire development to identify the factors influencing young people’s motivations to improve their tooth brushing behaviour and to assess their relative importance.

Pathways Project Final Report Volume 1: Field Investigation and Catchment Conceptual Models

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Executive Summary
The Pathways Project field studies were targeted at improving the understanding of contaminant transport along different hydrological pathways in Irish catchments, including their associated impacts on water quality and river ecology. The contaminants of interest were phosphorus, nitrogen and sediment. The working Pathways conceptual model included overland flow, interflow, shallow groundwater flow, and deep groundwater flow. This research informed the development of a set of Catchment Management Support Tools (CMSTs) comprising an Exploratory Tool, Catchment Characterization Tool (CCT) and Catchment Modelling Tool (CMT) as outlined in Pathways Project Final Reports Volumes 3 and 4.
In order to inform the CMST, four suitable study catchments were selected following an extensive selection process, namely the Mattock catchment, Co. Louth/Meath; Gortinlieve catchment, Co. Donegal; Nuenna catchment, Co. Kilkenny and the Glen Burn catchment, Co. Down. The Nuenna catchment is well drained as it is underlain by a regionally important karstified limestone aquifer with permeable limestone tills and gravels, while the other three catchments are underlain by poorly productive aquifers and low permeability clayey tills, and are poorly drained.
All catchments were instrumented, and groundwater, surface and near-surface water and aquatic ecology were monitored for a period of two years. Intensive water quality sampling during rainfall events was used to investigate the pathways delivering nutrients. The proportion of flow along each pathway was determined using chemical and physical hydrograph separation techniques, supported by numerical modelling.
The outcome of the field studies broadly supported the use of the initial four-pathway conceptual model used in the Pathways CMT (time-variant model). The artificial drainage network was found to be a significant contributing pathway in the poorly drained catchments, at low flows and during peak flows in wet antecedent conditions. The transition zone (TZ), i.e. the broken up weathered zone at the top of the bedrock, was also found to be an important pathway. It was observed to operate in two contrasting hydrogeological scenarios: in groundwater discharge zones the TZ can be regarded as being part of the shallow groundwater pathway, whereas in groundwater recharge zones it behaves more like interflow.
In the catchments overlying poorly productive aquifers, only a few fractures or fracture zones were found to be hydraulically active and the TZ, where present, was the main groundwater pathway. In the karstified Nuenna catchment, the springs, which are linked to conduits as well as to a diffuse fracture network, delivered the majority of the flow. These findings confirm the two-component groundwater contribution from bedrock but suggest that the size and nature of the hydraulically active fractures and the nature of the TZ are the dominant factors at the scale of a stream flow event.
Diffuse sources of nitrate were found to be typically delivered via the subsurface pathways, especially in the TZ and land drains in the poorly productive aquifer catchments, and via the bedrock groundwater in the Nuenna. Phosphorus was primarily transported via overland flow in both particulate and soluble forms. Where preferential flow paths existed in the soil and subsoil, soluble P, and to a lesser extent particulate P, were also transported via the TZ and in drains and ditches. Arable land was found to be the most important land use for
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the delivery of sediment, although channel bank and in-stream sources were the most significant in the Glen Burn catchment. Overland flow was found to be the predominant transport sediment pathway in the poorly productive catchments. These findings informed the development of the transport and attenuation equations used in the CCT and CMT. From an assessment of the relationship between physico-chemical and biological conditions, it is suggested that in the Nuenna, Glen Burn and Gortinlieve catchments, a relationship may exist between biological water quality and nitrogen concentrations, as well as with P. In the Nuenna, there was also a relationship between macroinvertebrate status and alkalinity.
Further research is recommended on the transport and delivery of phosphorus in groundwater, the transport and attenuation dynamics in the TZ in different hydrogeological settings and the relationship between macroinvertebrates and co-limiting factors. High resolution temporal and spatial sampling was found to be important for constraining the conceptual understanding of nutrient and sediment dynamics which should also be considered in future studies.

Knowledge Exchange, Spatial Analysis & Healthy Urban Environments (KESUE): Project Report

The Knowledge Exchange, Spatial Analysis and Healthy Urban Environments (KESUE) project has extended work previously undertaken by a QUB team of inter-disciplinary researchers engaged with the Physical Activity in the Regeneration of Connswater (PARC) project (Tully et al, 2013). The PARC project focussed on parts of East Belfast to assess the health impact of the Connswater Community Greenway. The KESUE project has aimed to extend some of the tools used initially in East Belfast so that they have data coverage of all of Belfast and Derry-Londonderry. The purpose of this has been to enable the development of evidence and policy tools that link features of the built environment with physical activity in these two cities. The project has used this data to help shape policy decisions in areas such as physical activity, park management, public transport and planning.

Working with a range of local partners who part-funded the project (City Councils in Belfast and Derry-Londonderry, Public Health Agency, Belfast Healthy Cities and Department of Regional Development), this project has mapped all the footpaths in the two cities (covering 37% of the NI population) and employed this to develop evidence used in strategies related to healthy urban planning. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the footpath network has been used as a basis for a wide range of policy-relevant analyses including pedestrian accessibility to public facilities, site options for new infrastructure and assessing how vulnerable groups can access services such as pharmacies. Key outputs have been Accessibility Atlases and maps showing how walkability of the built environment varies across the two cities.

In addition to generating this useful data, the project included intense engagement with potential users of the research, which has led to its continued uptake in a number of policies and strategies, creating a virtuous circle of research, implementation and feedback. The project has proved so valuable to Belfast City Council that they have now taken on one of the researchers to continue the work in-house.

Freshwater reservoir effect (FRE) on re-dating of the prehistoric Eurasian Steppe cultures

There is a major problem with dating human skeletal material in Eurasian
steppe, possibly due to the freshwater reservoir effects (FRE). The goal of the
project is to examine the extent of the FRE in key areas of Siberia and
Kazakhstan through AMS 14C dating and stable isotope (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S)
analysis of c. 150 archaeological and modern samples. Here, we present the
very first results of the tests. We hope that within next years the study will
provide advanced knowledge of FRE across the region; improved 14C sampling
protocols for 14C and isotopic studies; new data on the chronology, diet and
isotopic ecology of particular archaeological sites, and a database on the
extent and variability of the FRE in the region

Combining Bio- and Chemo-catalysis for the Conversion of Bio-Renewable Alcohols

The use of biomass as a source of fuel is on the sharp increase. In parallel with this expansion, new chemical processes and technologies are required to improve efficiency, sustainability, and profitability.
Biocatalytic and chemocatalytic methods can be combined to affect the conversion of bio-alcohols, and convert them to valuable chemical targets in an atom efficient and environmentally benign manor. Fermentation offers a useful first step in biomass conversion, as whole cell biocatalysts can provide sustained activity when fed with crude biomass. Coupling this with homogeneous and/or heterogeneous catalysis enables the preparation of a diverse product range. The transition between biocatalytic and chemocatalytic steps can be assisted by utilising ionic liquids.
Ionic liquids have potential roles in biorefineries that generate alcohols; as an extractant, reaction medium, and catalytic reagent. Underpinning the potential of ionic liquids in this area is: 1. the ability of ionic liquids to solubilize polyols and alcohols; 2. the facility to functionalise ionic liquids and tune properties; 3. the low volatility of ionic liquids.
The FP7 project GRAIL will be highlighted; this project focusses on the utilisation of glycerol formed as a by-product in biodiesel synthesis.

The Role and Effectiveness of Public – Private Partnerships (NHS LIFT) in the Development of Enhanced Primary Care Premises and Services:Report for the National Institute for Health Research Service Delivery and Organisation programme

The research project analysed the role and effectiveness of LIFT via a multi-method study which included semi-structured interviews with policy elites and users, as well as case studies and an exploratory analysis of the financial characteristics of three LIFT Companies. While the team felt that it was able to identify key aspects relating to the advantages and drawbacks surrounding LIFT, some aspects relating to the representativeness of the study was adversely affected by a reluctance of PCTs to participate in the case study analysis and commercial confidentiality restrictions. The study was nonetheless able to identify important issues in relation to the funding and procurement of primary care premises and services.