Simulation and modelling tools for quantitative safety assessments of unmanned aircraft systems and operations

This paper presents two simple simulation and modelling tools designed to aid in the safety assessment required for unmanned aircraft operations within unsegregated airspace. First, a fast pair-wise encounter generator is derived to simulate the See and Avoid environment. The utility of the encounter generator is demonstrated through the development of a hybrid database and a statistical performance evaluation of an autonomous See and Avoid decision and control strategy. Second, an unmanned aircraft mission generator is derived to help visualise the impact of multiple persistent unmanned operations on existing air traffic. The utility of the mission generator is demonstrated through an example analysis of a mixed airspace environment using real traffic data in Australia. These simulation and modelling approaches constitute a useful and extensible set of analysis tools, that can be leveraged to help explore some of the more fundamental and challenging problems facing civilian unmanned aircraft system integration.

The Impact of Lifestyle and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Midlife on the Health-Related Quality of Life among Old Men

Prevention of cardiovascular diseases is known to postpone death, but in an aging society it is important to ensure that those who live longer are neither disabled nor suffering an inferior quality of life. It is essential both from the point of view of the aging individual as well as that of society that any individual should enjoy a good physical, mental and social quality of life during these additional years. The studies presented in this thesis investigated the impact of modifiable risk factors, all of which affect cardiovascular health in the long term, on mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The data is based on the all male cohort of the Helsinki Businessmen Study. This cohort, originally of 3.490 men born between 1919 and 1934 has been followed since the 1960s. The socioeconomic status of the participants is similar, since all the men were working in leading positions. Extensive baseline examinations were conducted among 2.375 of the men in 1974 when their mean age was 48 and at this time the health, medication and cardiovascular risk factors of the participants were observed. In 2000, at the mean age of 73, the HRQoL of the survivors of the original cohort was examined using the RAND-36 mailed questionnaire (n=1.864). RAND-36, along with the equivalent SF-36, is the world s most widely used means of assessing generic health. The response rate was generally over 90%. Mortality was retrieved from national registers in 2000 and 2002. For the six substudies of this thesis, the impact of four different modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (weight gain, cholesterol, alcohol and smoking) on the HRQoL in old age was studied both independently and in combination. The follow-up time for these studies varies from 26 up to 39 years. Mortality is reported separately or included in the RAND-36 scores for HRQoL. Elevated levels of all the risk factors examined among the participants in midlife led to a diminished life expectancy. Among survivors, lower weight gain in midlife was associated with better HRQoL, both physically and mentally. Higher levels of serum cholesterol in middle age indicated both an earlier mortality and a decline in the physical component of HRQoL in a dose-response manner during the 39-year follow-up. Mortality was significantly higher in the highest baseline category of reported mean alcohol consumption (≥ 5 drinks/day), but fairly comparable in abstainers and moderate drinkers during the 29-year follow-up. When HRQoL in old age was accounted for mortality, the men with the highest alcohol consumption in midlife clearly had poorer physical and mental health in old age, but the HRQoL of abstainers and those who drank alcohol in moderation were comparatively similar. The amount of cigarette smoking in midlife was shown to have had a dose-response effect on both mortality and HRQoL in old age during the 26 year follow-up. The men smoking over 20 cigarettes daily in middle age lost about 10 years of their life-expectancy. Meanwhile, the physical functioning of surviving heavy smokers in old age was similar to men 10 years older in the general population. The impact of clustered cardiovascular risk factors was examined by comparing two subcohorts of men who were healthy in 1974, but with different baseline risk factor status. The men with low risk had a 50 % lower mortality during the 29-years follow-up. Their RAND-36 scores for the physical quality of life in old age were significantly better, and the 2002 questionnaire examining psychological well-being indicated also significantly better mental health among the low-risk group. The results indicate that different risk factor levels in midlife have a meaningful impact on life-expectancy and the quality of these extra years. Leading a healthy lifestyle improves both survival and the quality of life.

A Possible and Necessary Consistency Proof

After Gödel's incompleteness theorems and the collapse of Hilbert's programme Gerhard Gentzen continued the quest for consistency proofs of Peano arithmetic. He considered a finitistic or constructive proof still possible and necessary for the foundations of mathematics. For a proof to be meaningful, the principles relied on should be considered more reliable than the doubtful elements of the theory concerned. He worked out a total of four proofs between 1934 and 1939. This thesis examines the consistency proofs for arithmetic by Gentzen from different angles. The consistency of Heyting arithmetic is shown both in a sequent calculus notation and in natural deduction. The former proof includes a cut elimination theorem for the calculus and a syntactical study of the purely arithmetical part of the system. The latter consistency proof in standard natural deduction has been an open problem since the publication of Gentzen's proofs. The solution to this problem for an intuitionistic calculus is based on a normalization proof by Howard. The proof is performed in the manner of Gentzen, by giving a reduction procedure for derivations of falsity. In contrast to Gentzen's proof, the procedure contains a vector assignment. The reduction reduces the first component of the vector and this component can be interpreted as an ordinal less than epsilon_0, thus ordering the derivations by complexity and proving termination of the process.

Early Growth and Later Health, Focus on Metabolic Syndrome, Obesity and Physical Activity

The Developmental Origins of Health and Disease Hypothesis proposes that adverse health outcomes in adult life are in part programmed during fetal life and infancy. This means that e.g. restricted nutrition during pregnancy programmes the offspring to store fat more effectively, to develop faster and to reach puberty earlier. These adaptations are beneficial in terms of short term survival. However, in developed countries these adaptations often lead to an increased risk of obesity and metabolic disturbances in later life, due to a mismatch between the prenatal and postnatal environment. This thesis aimed to study the role of early growth in people who are obese as adults, but metabolically healthy as well as in those who are normal in weight but metabolically obese. Other study aims were to assess whether physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness are programmed early in life. The role of socioeconomic status in the development of obesity from a life course setting was also studied. These studies included 2003 men and women born in Helsinki between 1934 and 1944 with detailed information of their prenatal and childhood growth as well as living conditions. They participated in the detailed clinical examination during the years 2001-2004. A sub-group of the subjects participated in the UKK Institute 2-kilometre walk test. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the 2005 criteria of the International Diabetes Federation. Among the obese men and women 20 % were metabolically healthy. Those with metabolic syndrome did not differ in birth size compared to the healthy ones, but by two years of age, they were lighter and thinner, and remained so up to 11 years. The period when changes in BMIs were predictive of the metabolic syndrome was from birth to 7 years. Of the normal weight individuals 17 % were metabolically obese. Again, there were no differences in birth size. However, by the age 7 years, those men who later developed metabolic syndrome were thinner. Gains in BMI during the first two years of life were protective of the syndrome. Children who were heavier, and especially taller, were more physically active, exercised with higher intensity and had higher cardiorespiratory fitness in their adult life than those who were shorter and thinner as children. Lower educational attainment and lower adult social class were associated with obesity in both men and women. Childhood social class was inversely associated with body mass index only in men while lower household income was associated with higher BMI in women. These results support the role of early life factors in the development of metabolic syndrome and adult life style. Early detection of risk factors predisposing to these conditions is highly relevant from a public health point of view.

Annales Societatis zoologicae-botanicae Fennicae Vanamo tom. 14

Kielet saksa ja suomi.

Paleoseismological evidence of surface faulting along the northeastern Himalayan front, India: Timing, size, and spatial extent of great earthquakes

The similar to 2500 km long Himalayan arc has experienced three large to great earthquakes of M-w 7.8 to 8.4 during the past century, but none produced surface rupture. Paleoseismic studies have been conducted during the last decade to begin understanding the timing, size, rupture extent, return period, and mechanics of the faulting associated with the occurrence of large surface rupturing earthquakes along the similar to 2500 km long Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) system of India and Nepal. The previous studies have been limited to about nine sites along the western two-thirds of the HFT extending through northwest India and along the southern border of Nepal. We present here the results of paleoseismic investigations at three additional sites further to the northeast along the HFT within the Indian states of West Bengal and Assam. The three sites reside between the meizoseismal areas of the 1934 Bihar-Nepal and 1950 Assam earthquakes. The two westernmost of the sites, near the village of Chalsa and near the Nameri Tiger Preserve, show that offsets during the last surface rupture event were at minimum of about 14 m and 12 m, respectively. Limits on the ages of surface rupture at Chalsa (site A) and Nameri (site B), though broad, allow the possibility that the two sites record the same great historical rupture reported in Nepal around A.D. 1100. The correlation between the two sites is supported by the observation that the large displacements as recorded at Chalsa and Nameri would most likely be associated with rupture lengths of hundreds of kilometers or more and are on the same order as reported for a surface rupture earthquake reported in Nepal around A.D. 1100. Assuming the offsets observed at Chalsa and Nameri occurred synchronously with reported offsets in Nepal, the rupture length of the event would approach 700 to 800 km. The easternmost site is located within Harmutty Tea Estate (site C) at the edges of the 1950 Assam earthquake meizoseismal area. Here the most recent event offset is relatively much smaller (<2.5 m), and radiocarbon dating shows it to have occurred after A.D. 1100 (after about A.D. 1270). The location of the site near the edge of the meizoseismal region of the 1950 Assam earthquake and the relatively lesser offset allows speculation that the displacement records the 1950 M-w 8.4 Assam earthquake. Scatter in radiocarbon ages on detrital charcoal has not resulted in a firm bracket on the timing of events observed in the trenches. Nonetheless, the observations collected here, when taken together, suggest that the largest of thrust earthquakes along the Himalayan arc have rupture lengths and displacements of similar scale to the largest that have occurred historically along the world's subduction zones.

Revisiting the earthquake sources in the Himalaya: Perspectives on past seismicity

The similar to 2500 km-long Himalaya plate boundary experienced three great earthquakes during the past century, but none of them generated any surface rupture. The segments between the 1905-1934 and the 1897-1950 sources, known as the central and Assam seismic gaps respectively, have long been considered holding potential for future great earthquakes. This paper addresses two issues concerning earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary. One, the absence of surface rupture associated with the great earthquakes, vis-a-vis the purported large slip observed from paleoseismological investigations and two, the current understanding of the status of the seismic gaps in the Central Himalaya and Assam, in view of the paleoseismological and historical data being gathered. We suggest that the ruptures of earthquakes nucleating on the basal detachment are likely to be restricted by the crustal ramps and thus generate no surface ruptures, whereas those originating on the faults within the wedges promote upward propagation of rupture and displacement, as observed during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, that showed a peak offset of 7 m. The occasional reactivation of these thrust systems within the duplex zone may also be responsible for the observed temporal and spatial clustering of earthquakes in the Himalaya. Observations presented in this paper suggest that the last major earthquake in the Central Himalaya occurred during AD 1119-1292, rather than in 1505, as suggested in some previous studies and thus the gap in the plate boundary events is real. As for the Northwestern Himalaya, seismically generated sedimentary features identified in the 1950 source region are generally younger than AD 1400 and evidence for older events is sketchy. The 1897 Shillong earthquake is not a decollement event and its predecessor is probably similar to 1000 years old. Compared to the Central Himalaya, the Assam Gap is a corridor of low seismicity between two tectonically independent seismogenic source zones that cannot be considered as a seismic gap in the conventional sense. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seismic hazard analysis of Lucknow considering local and active seismic gaps

The Himalayas are one of very active seismic regions in the world where devastating earthquakes of 1803 Bihar-Nepal, 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, 1950 Assam and 2011 Sikkim were reported. Several researchers highlighted central seismic gap based on the stress accumulation in central part of Himalaya and the non-occurrence of earthquake between 1905 Kangra and 1934 Bihar-Nepal. The region has potential of producing great seismic event in the near future. As a result of this seismic gap, all regions which fall adjacent to the active Himalayan region are under high possible seismic hazard due to future earthquakes in the Himalayan region. In this study, the study area of the Lucknow urban centre which lies within 350 km from the central seismic gap has been considered for detailed assessment of seismic hazard. The city of Lucknow also lies close to Lucknow-Faizabad fault having a seismic gap of 350 years. Considering the possible seismic gap in the Himalayan region and also the seismic gap in Lucknow-Faizabad fault, the seismic hazard of Lucknow has been studied based on deterministic and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Results obtained show that the northern and western parts of Lucknow are found to have a peak ground acceleration of 0.11-0.13 g, which is 1.6- to 2.0-fold higher than the seismic hazard compared to the other parts of Lucknow.

Medieval pulse of great earthquakes in the central Himalaya: Viewing past activities on the frontal thrust

The Himalaya has experienced three great earthquakes during the last century1934 Nepal-Bihar, 1950 Upper Assam, and arguably the 1905 Kangra. Focus here is on the central Himalayan segment between the 1905 and the 1934 ruptures, where previous studies have identified a great earthquake between thirteenth and sixteenth centuries. Historical data suggest damaging earthquakes in A.D. 1255, 1344, 1505, 1803, and 1833, although their sources and magnitudes remain debated. We present new evidence for a great earthquake from a trench across the base of a 13m high scarp near Ramnagar at the Himalayan Frontal Thrust. The section exposed four south verging fault strands and a backthrust offsetting a broad spectrum of lithounits, including colluvial deposits. Age data suggest that the last great earthquake in the central Himalaya most likely occurred between A.D. 1259 and 1433. While evidence for this rupture is unmistakable, the stratigraphic clues imply an earlier event, which can most tentatively be placed between A.D. 1050 and 1250. The postulated existence of this earlier event, however, requires further validation. If the two-earthquake scenario is realistic, then the successive ruptures may have occurred in close intervals and were sourced on adjacent segments that overlapped at the trench site. Rupture(s) identified in the trench closely correlate with two damaging earthquakes of 1255 and 1344 reported from Nepal. The present study suggests that the frontal thrust in central Himalaya may have remained seismically inactive during the last similar to 700years. Considering this long elapsed time, a great earthquake may be due in the region.

Seismic hazard maps and spectrum for Patna considering region-specific seismotectonic parameters

The objective of this paper was to develop the seismic hazard maps of Patna district considering the region-specific maximum magnitude and ground motion prediction equation (GMPEs) by worst-case deterministic and classical probabilistic approaches. Patna, located near Himalayan active seismic region has been subjected to destructive earthquakes such as 1803 and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes. Based on the past seismicity and earthquake damage distribution, linear sources and seismic events have been considered at radius of about 500 km around Patna district center. Maximum magnitude (M (max)) has been estimated based on the conventional approaches such as maximum observed magnitude (M (max) (obs) ) and/or increment of 0.5, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics. Maximum of these three is taken as maximum probable magnitude for each source. Twenty-seven ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are found applicable for Patna region. Of these, suitable region-specific GMPEs are selected by performing the `efficacy test,' which makes use of log-likelihood. Maximum magnitude and selected GMPEs are used to estimate PGA and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1 s and mapped for worst-case deterministic approach and 2 and 10 % period of exceedance in 50 years. Furthermore, seismic hazard results are used to develop the deaggregation plot to quantify the contribution of seismic sources in terms of magnitude and distance. In this study, normalized site-specific design spectrum has been developed by dividing the hazard map into four zones based on the peak ground acceleration values. This site-specific response spectrum has been compared with recent Sikkim 2011 earthquake and Indian seismic code IS1893.

Caracterización y evaluación de seis híbridos y seis variedades de polinización libre de maíz (Zea mays L.) en El Viejo, Chinandega

Con el propósito de comparar materiales genéticos y contribuir al incremento de la producción de maíz, se desarrolló el presente estudio en la finca “La Frutalosa” en El Viejo, Chinandega. Se estableció un diseño en Bloques Completos al Azar con cuatro bloques y el factor estudio fueron 12 cultivares de maíz (híbridos: HQ-INTA 993, H-53, H-INTA 991, C-343, C-385, HS-56; sintéticos: NB-NUTR INTA, NB-6, NBS, NB-9043; criollos: MAICITO y MAIZON). Los resultados obtenidos fueron objetos de un análisis de varianza (ANDEVA), separación de medias según Tukey (∞=0.05), análisis de correlación y contrastes ortogonales. Los cultivares evaluados presentaron variación en la mayoría de los descriptores de crecimiento y desarrollo. Los materiales criollos obtuvieron mayor altura de planta que los híbridos y sintéticos. En promedio de rendimiento los sintéticos superaron a los criollos e híbridos. Los materiales de mayor rendimiento fueron MAIZON (3534.6 kg ha-1), NB-9043 (2964.8 kg ha-1) y HS-56 (2922.4 kg ha-1). La distancia apical se correlacionó de manera negativa con las variables peso de mazorca, longitud de mazorca y el rendimiento, lo que indica que la mayoría de los materiales evaluados de altos rendimientos tienen poca cobertura de mazorca.