Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Healing replicas in a software component replication system

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Automated Generation of Indoor Accessibility Information for Mobility-Impaired Individuals

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

A clustering approach for vehicle routing problems with hard time windows

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logica Computicional

A influência da posição postural no ciclo percepção - acção durante estimulação visual dinâmica

A influência da posição postural no ciclo percepção – acção foi investigada com base no potencial evocado visual relacionado com o movimento (M-VEP). Para tal, sinais EEG multicanal de 25 indivíduos saudáveis foram adquiridos durante as posições posturais ortostática (O) e sentada (S), sob estimulação visual dinâmica (ED) de afastamento (AF) e aproximação (AP) de um cenário virtual. Para gerar ED, os móveis e utensílios do cenário virtual foram expandidos (ou reduzidos) enquanto o piso, as paredes e o teto deslocam-se linearmente no sentido anterior (ou posterior) com uma velocidade de 1,2 m/s durante 1 s. O M-VEP foi estimado para cada posição e estimulação pelo cálculo da média coerente dos sinais EEG sincronizados com o início do movimento da ED, a qual evidenciou as componentes P1, N2 e P3 (dominânica N2 em relação a P1). Embora o M-VEP não dependa do sentido da estimulação (Wilcoxon, p > 0,20), o running t-test indicou que no intervalo 470 a 900 ms, após o início da ED, o grand-averaged do M-VEP para posição O difere (p < 0,10) daquele da posição S nas derivações parietais, frontais e centrais. Além disso, a distribuição da latência da componente P3 para O também difere daquela de S (Wilcoxon: p < 0,06), para as mesmas derivações, independentemente do sentido da ED. A correlação cruzada indicou atraso da componente P3 de S em relação à de O, em particular (p < 0,10) nas derivações frontais e centrais durante AP (50 ms) e somente centrais durante AF (30 ms). Estes resultados reflectem a antecipação do processamento cortical hierárquico relacionado com a cognição, o planeamento e a acção motora, associados às maiores exigências da posição ortostática para manter o equilíbrio evidenciando, portanto, a potencialidade deste protocolo para investigar o ciclo percepção – acção durante posições posturais distintas.

Consumer perception of CSR in Portugal: The aftermath of the financial crisis

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) literature has largely neglected consumers’ perceptions in the debate regarding the role of CSR in the aftermath of the financial crisis. In that context, this study aims to test the possibility that consumers’ perceptions of CSR level, firm reputation and brand trust, might depend on the type of industry sector of a firm, the level of fit of an initiative or both. By conducting a survey on Portuguese consumers and running a two-way analysis of variance, it suggests that solely the type of industry sector has an effect on consumer perception and that consumers are less tolerable of controversial industries.

Incremental compilation and deployment for OutSystems Platform

OutSystems Platform is used to develop, deploy, and maintain enterprise web an mobile web applications. Applications are developed through a visual domain specific language, in an integrated development environment, and compiled to a standard stack of web technologies. In the platform’s core, there is a compiler and a deployment service that transform the visual model into a running web application. As applications grow, compilation and deployment times increase as well, impacting the developer’s productivity. In the previous model, a full application was the only compilation and deployment unit. When the developer published an application, even if he only changed a very small aspect of it, the application would be fully compiled and deployed. Our goal is to reduce compilation and deployment times for the most common use case, in which the developer performs small changes to an application before compiling and deploying it. We modified the OutSystems Platform to support a new incremental compilation and deployment model that reuses previous computations as much as possible in order to improve performance. In our approach, the full application is broken down into smaller compilation and deployment units, increasing what can be cached and reused. We also observed that this finer model would benefit from a parallel execution model. Hereby, we created a task driven Scheduler that executes compilation and deployment tasks in parallel. Our benchmarks show a substantial improvement of the compilation and deployment process times for the aforementioned development scenario.

DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

Ethical consumption (in)decisons

Consumers’ indecisions about the ethical value of their choices are amongst the highest concerns regarding ethical products’ purchasing. This is especially true for Fair Trade certified products where the ethical attribute information provided by the packaging is often unacknowledged by consumers. While well-informed consumers are likely to generate positive consumer reactions to ethical products and increase its ethical consumption, less knowledgeable buyers show different purchasing patterns. In such circumstances, decisions are often driven by socio-cultural beliefs about the low functional performance of ethical or sustainable attributes. For instance, products more congruent with sustainability (e.g., produce) are considered to be simpler but less tasty than less sustainable products. Less sustainable products instead, are considered to be more sophisticated and to provide consumers with more hedonic pleasures (e.g., chocolate mousse). The extent that ethicality is linked with experiences that provide consumers with more pain than pleasure is also manifested in pro-social social behaviors. More specifically through conspicuous self-sacrificial consumption experiences like running for charity in marathons with wide public exposure. The willingness of consumers to engage in such costly initiatives is moderated by gender differences and further, mediated by the chronic productivity orientation of some individuals to use time in a productive manner. Using experimental design studies, I show that consumers (1) use a set of affective and cognitive associations with on-package elements to interpret ethical attributes, (2) implicitly associate ethicality with simplicity, and that (3) men versus women show different preferences in their forms of contribution to pro-social causes.

Fiscal dynamics and electoral behavior in the Eurozone

Abstract: The Stability Growth Pact and the 3% rule did not prevent countries from running large deficits. Countries in the EMU administrate fiscal policies differently, despite the existence of a common quantitative goal. The main focus of this work project is to study differences in the fiscal dynamics of eight EMU countries and assess the role of political variables in shaping those dynamics. We find that elections negatively affect government revenue in Austria, Belgium, Portugal, Spain and Germany. Expenditure, on the other hand, responds positively to incoming elections in Portugal, Italy, France and Netherlands, and negatively in the case of Germany.

Gastric myoelectrical activity in neonates of different gestational ages by means of electrogastrography

PURPOSE: to describe the patterns of the gastric myoelectrical activity, pre-and postprandially, in clinically stable neonates of different gestational ages, during their first two weeks of life by means of Electrogastrography. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Electrogastrography was recorded in forty-five clinically stable neonates of different gestational ages (group I: 15 neonates of > 37 weeks, group II: 15 premature neonates of 32-37 weeks; Group III: 15 premature neonates of 28-31 weeks) receiving intermittent enteral feedings during their first two weeks of life. Electrogastrography recordings were performed for 1 hour pre-and postprandially. The Electrogastrography signal was recorded using the portable MicroDigitrapper Electrogastrography recording device and after motion artifacts were deleted, the remaining Electrogastrography data were submitted to quantitative analysis based on the "Running Spectrum Analysis". RESULTS: The percentages of normogastria, pre-and postprandially were greater than the percentages of gastric dysrythmias in all three studied groups. Furthermore, all neonates had the mean values of the Electrogastrography dominant frequency predominantly within the normogastria range, in both periods analyzed. There were no significant differences in the relative change of the Electrogastrography dominant power among the groups. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that the Electrogastrography patterns are similar between premature and full term neonates during the pre-and postprandial periods. The results of this study also indicate that the gastric myoelectrical activity in premature and full term neonates is immature, as compared to that described for older neonates, children and adults.

Scaling In-Memory databases on multicores

Current computer systems have evolved from featuring only a single processing unit and limited RAM, in the order of kilobytes or few megabytes, to include several multicore processors, o↵ering in the order of several tens of concurrent execution contexts, and have main memory in the order of several tens to hundreds of gigabytes. This allows to keep all data of many applications in the main memory, leading to the development of inmemory databases. Compared to disk-backed databases, in-memory databases (IMDBs) are expected to provide better performance by incurring in less I/O overhead. In this dissertation, we present a scalability study of two general purpose IMDBs on multicore systems. The results show that current general purpose IMDBs do not scale on multicores, due to contention among threads running concurrent transactions. In this work, we explore di↵erent direction to overcome the scalability issues of IMDBs in multicores, while enforcing strong isolation semantics. First, we present a solution that requires no modification to either database systems or to the applications, called MacroDB. MacroDB replicates the database among several engines, using a master-slave replication scheme, where update transactions execute on the master, while read-only transactions execute on slaves. This reduces contention, allowing MacroDB to o↵er scalable performance under read-only workloads, while updateintensive workloads su↵er from performance loss, when compared to the standalone engine. Second, we delve into the database engine and identify the concurrency control mechanism used by the storage sub-component as a scalability bottleneck. We then propose a new locking scheme that allows the removal of such mechanisms from the storage sub-component. This modification o↵ers performance improvement under all workloads, when compared to the standalone engine, while scalability is limited to read-only workloads. Next we addressed the scalability limitations for update-intensive workloads, and propose the reduction of locking granularity from the table level to the attribute level. This further improved performance for intensive and moderate update workloads, at a slight cost for read-only workloads. Scalability is limited to intensive-read and read-only workloads. Finally, we investigate the impact applications have on the performance of database systems, by studying how operation order inside transactions influences the database performance. We then propose a Read before Write (RbW) interaction pattern, under which transaction perform all read operations before executing write operations. The RbW pattern allowed TPC-C to achieve scalable performance on our modified engine for all workloads. Additionally, the RbW pattern allowed our modified engine to achieve scalable performance on multicores, almost up to the total number of cores, while enforcing strong isolation.

Relatório de estágio curricular

The purpose of the current internship report is to share the opportunity I have had to learn during my stay in CMVM as an intern, specifically in relation to the exercise of private equity supervision in Portugal, in order to contribute to the study of private equity legal framework. Private equity is the activity to finance or acquire enterprises with growth potential (normally consider as genuine industry), for a limited period of time, in order to support the enterprise’s development to benefit from future profit sales of participations. By observing and studying the registration procedures, as well as the specific legislation and reality of other jurisdictions, it is concluded that supervision specifically related to private equity is one of the most important aspects in this industry, as it is the best way to know and control it. To improve the performance of supervisory functions, and the very development of private equity, it is essential to have a legislative review in order to simplify the rules enforcement necessary for the proper running of the industry as well as for more efficient supervision and control of this activity, thus developing it and making it more attractive in a national and international basis.

Yacht charter in Portugal- developing a business model for a sailing charter company

Given the signals that Portugal can be a great destination for charter sailing, the purpose of this work is to disprove this. Thereby the model of Porter’s five forces has been used to analyze the Portuguese yacht charter market, whereas a SWOT analysis should give an overview and compare the Portuguese market with the well running charter market of Croatia. The research outcome on the supply side as well as on the demand side should then serve as a foundation for establishing a model of a sailing charter company in Portugal, explained with the aid of the Canvas model.

Interdisciplinary knowledge transfer and technological applications for assessment, strengthening and monitoring of timber structures in Europe

COST (European Co-operation in the field of scientific and technical research) is the longest running framework for research co-operation iri Europe, having been established in 1971 by a Ministerial Conference attended by Ministers for Science and Technology from 19 countries. Today COST is used by the scientific communities of 35 European countries to cooperate in exchanging knowledge and technology developed within research projects supported by national or European funds. The main objective of COST is to contribute to the realization of the European Research Área (ERA) anticipating and complementing the activities of the' Framework Programmes, constituting a "bridge" towards the scientific communities of emerging countries, increasing the mobility of researchers across Europe and fostering the establishment of "Networks of Excelience". Another essential objective is the knowledge transfer between the scientific soc'iety and industry. It is widely acknowledged that European scientific performance in relation to investment in science is excellent but technological and commercial performance has steadily worsened. The present paper discusses how the COST Action's instruments, from training schools to short scientific missions and workshops have been used within The COST ACTION FP11O1 Assessment, Reinforcement and Monitoring of Timber Structures to achieve such objectives.