Evaluating and predicting overall process risk using event logs

Companies standardise and automate their business processes in order to improve process eff ciency and minimise operational risks. However, it is di fficult to eliminate all process risks during the process design stage due to the fact that processes often run in complex and changeable environments and rely on human resources. Timely identification of process risks is crucial in order to insure the achievement of process goals. Business processes are often supported by information systems that record information about their executions in event logs. In this article we present an approach and a supporting tool for the evaluation of the overall process risk and for the prediction of process outcomes based on the analysis of information recorded in event logs. It can help managers evaluate the overall risk exposure of their business processes, track the evolution of overall process risk, identify changes and predict process outcomes based on the current value of overall process risk. The approach was implemented and validated using synthetic event logs and through a case study with a real event log.

Research outcomes for improved management of insulated rail joints

Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) are safety critical component of the automatic block signalling and broken rail detection systems. IRJs exhibit several failure modes due to complex interaction between the railhead ends and the wheel tread near the gap. These localised zones could not be monitored using automatic sensing devices and hence are resorted to visual inspection only, which is error prone and expensive. In Australia alone currently there are 50,000 IRJs across 80,000 km of rail track. The significance of the problem around the world could thus be realised as there exists one IRJ for each 1.6 km track length. IRJs exhibit extremely low and variable service life; further the track substructure underneath IRJs degrade faster. Thus presence of the IRJs incur significant costs to track maintenance. IRJ failures have also contributed to some train derailments and various traffic disruptions in rail lines. This paper reports a systematic research carried out over seven years on the mechanical behaviour of IRJs for practically relevant outcomes. The research has scientifically established that stiffening the track bed for reduction in impact force is an ill-conceived concept and the most effective method is to reduce the gap size. Further it is established that hardening the railhead ends through laser coating (or other) cannot adequately address the metal flow problem in the long run; modification of the railhead profile is the only appropriate technique to completely eliminate the problem. Part of these outcomes has been adopted by the rail infrastructure owners in Australia.

A nonconservative Lagrangian framework for statistical fluid registration - SAFIRA

In this paper, we used a nonconservative Lagrangian mechanics approach to formulate a new statistical algorithm for fluid registration of 3-D brain images. This algorithm is named SAFIRA, acronym for statistically-assisted fluid image registration algorithm. A nonstatistical version of this algorithm was implemented, where the deformation was regularized by penalizing deviations from a zero rate of strain. In, the terms regularizing the deformation included the covariance of the deformation matrices Σ and the vector fields (q). Here, we used a Lagrangian framework to reformulate this algorithm, showing that the regularizing terms essentially allow nonconservative work to occur during the flow. Given 3-D brain images from a group of subjects, vector fields and their corresponding deformation matrices are computed in a first round of registrations using the nonstatistical implementation. Covariance matrices for both the deformation matrices and the vector fields are then obtained and incorporated (separately or jointly) in the nonconservative terms, creating four versions of SAFIRA. We evaluated and compared our algorithms' performance on 92 3-D brain scans from healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins; 2-D validations are also shown for corpus callosum shapes delineated at midline in the same subjects. After preliminary tests to demonstrate each method, we compared their detection power using tensor-based morphometry (TBM), a technique to analyze local volumetric differences in brain structure. We compared the accuracy of each algorithm variant using various statistical metrics derived from the images and deformation fields. All these tests were also run with a traditional fluid method, which has been quite widely used in TBM studies. The versions incorporating vector-based empirical statistics on brain variation were consistently more accurate than their counterparts, when used for automated volumetric quantification in new brain images. This suggests the advantages of this approach for large-scale neuroimaging studies.

Service composition and binding

Service composition enables the creation of services previously unavailable through the aggregation of existing services. The result is called a service composition. Exposing a service composition as a service, the result is called a composed service. It can be distinguished from atomic services. Service composition approaches can be differentiated along two axes: point in time of composition and degree of automation. With design-time and run-time we can identify two different points in time for doing a composition. Additionally we can distinguish between three different degrees of automation: manual, assisted, and automated service composition. © 2008 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

'I love PEMCO' : Creating conversation worthy buzz in the insurance industry with word of mouth marketing

Surveys by PR-COM, a communications agency, indicate that leading German companies (1) have not recognized the relevance of social media yet or (2) have difficulties with implementing the concept (Meiners et al. 2010). For example, a survey among DAX-companies indicates that their social media activities are “lückenhaft und halbherzig” (PR-COM 2009). Another survey in the German IT industry shows that less than a third had a German and/or English blog (PR-COM 2010), even though blogging is considered a key tool for marketing communications. However, firms “that are not present on social media run the risk of not being in the position to build a positive reputation or to correct negative comments” (Meiners et al. 2010).

Bayesian parametric bootstrap for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper it is demonstrated how the Bayesian parametric bootstrap can be adapted to models with intractable likelihoods. The approach is most appealing when the semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) summary statistics are selected. After a pilot run of ABC, the likelihood-free parametric bootstrap approach requires very few model simulations to produce an approximate posterior, which can be a useful approximation in its own right. An alternative is to use this approximation as a proposal distribution in ABC algorithms to make them more efficient. In this paper, the parametric bootstrap approximation is used to form the initial importance distribution for the sequential Monte Carlo and the ABC importance and rejection sampling algorithms. The new approach is illustrated through a simulation study of the univariate g-and- k quantile distribution, and is used to infer parameter values of a stochastic model describing expanding melanoma cell colonies.

Transportation disadvantage impedance indexing: A methodological approach to reduce policy shortcomings

Access to transport systems and the connection to such systems provided to essential economic and social activities are critical to determine households' transportation disadvantage levels. In spite of the developments in better identifying transportation disadvantaged groups, the lack of effective policies resulted in the continuum of the issue as a significant problem. This paper undertakes a pilot case investigation as test bed for a new approach developed to reduce transportation policy shortcomings. The approach, ‘disadvantage-impedance index’, aims to ease transportation disadvantages by employing representative parameters to measure the differences between policy alternatives run in a simulation environment. Implemented in the Japanese town of Arao, the index uses trip-making behaviour and resident stated preference data. The results of the index reveal that even a slight improvement in accessibility and travel quality indicators makes a significant difference in easing disadvantages. The index, integrated into a four-step model, proves to be highly robust and useful in terms of quick diagnosis in capturing effective actions, and developing potentially efficient policies.

Whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults

Background Recovery strategies are often usedwith the intention of preventing orminimisingmuscle soreness after exercise. Whole-body cryotherapy, which involves a single or repeated exposure(s) to extremely cold dry air (below -100 °C) in a specialised chamber or cabin for two to four minutes per exposure, is currently being advocated as an effective intervention to reduce muscle soreness after exercise. Objectives To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the British Nursing Index and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. We also searched the reference lists of articles, trial registers and conference proceedings, handsearched journals and contacted experts. The searches were run in August 2015. Selection criteria We aimed to include randomised and quasi-randomised trials that compared the use of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) versus a passive or control intervention (rest, no treatment or placebo treatment) or active interventions including cold or contrast water immersion, active recovery and infrared therapy for preventing or treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We also aimed to include randomised trials that compared different durations or dosages of WBC. Our prespecified primary outcomes were muscle soreness, subjective recovery (e.g. tiredness, well-being) and adverse effects. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently screened search results, selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted and cross-checked data. Where appropriate, we pooled results of comparable trials. The random-effects model was used for pooling where there was substantial heterogeneity.We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. Main results Four laboratory-based randomised controlled trials were included. These reported results for 64 physically active predominantly young adults (mean age 23 years). All but four participants were male. Two trials were parallel group trials (44 participants) and two were cross-over trials (20 participants). The trials were heterogeneous, including the type, temperature, duration and frequency of WBC, and the type of preceding exercise. None of the trials reported active surveillance of predefined adverse events. All four trials had design features that carried a high risk of bias, potentially limiting the reliability of their findings. The evidence for all outcomes was classified as ’very low’ quality based on the GRADE criteria. Two comparisons were tested: WBC versus control (rest or no WBC), tested in four studies; and WBC versus far-infrared therapy, also tested in one study. No studies compared WBC with other active interventions, such as cold water immersion, or different types and applications of WBC. All four trials compared WBC with rest or no WBC. There was very low quality evidence for lower self-reported muscle soreness (pain at rest) scores after WBC at 1 hour (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.42 to -0.12; 20 participants, 2 cross-over trials); 24 hours (SMD -0.57, 95%CI -1.48 to 0.33) and 48 hours (SMD -0.58, 95% CI -1.37 to 0.21), both with 38 participants, 2 cross-over studies, 1 parallel group study; and 72 hours (SMD -0.65, 95% CI -2.54 to 1.24; 29 participants, 1 cross-over study, 1 parallel group study). Of note is that the 95% CIs also included either no between-group differences or a benefit in favour of the control group. One small cross-over trial (9 participants) found no difference in tiredness but better well-being after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. One small cross-over trial involving nine well-trained runners provided very low quality evidence of lower levels of muscle soreness after WBC, when compared with infrared therapy, at 1 hour follow-up, but not at 24 or 48 hours. The same trial found no difference in well-being but less tiredness after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. Authors’ conclusions There is insufficient evidence to determine whether whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) reduces self-reportedmuscle soreness, or improves subjective recovery, after exercise compared with passive rest or no WBC in physically active young adult males. There is no evidence on the use of this intervention in females or elite athletes. The lack of evidence on adverse events is important given that the exposure to extreme temperature presents a potential hazard. Further high-quality, well-reported research in this area is required and must provide detailed reporting of adverse events.

Rights and wrongs of Australian government asylum seeker policy

Worldwide, no fewer than 50 million people a year are now fleeing dangerous and often life threatening situations in their countries of origin (UNHCR, 2014c). As one part of this movement, thousands risk journeys through dangerous waters hoping to obtain asylum in Australia. However, Australian Government policies adopted since 2013 aim to ensure that no asylum seeker nor any of the 3,500 detainees held in offshore detention centres will ever be settled on the mainland. To this has now been added a declaration that none of the recent refugees or 6200 asylum seekers waiting in Indonesia in centres run by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) will gain entry (Whyte, 2014a). These immigration policies differ dramatically from those adopted in earlier decades that produced the country’s decidedly multicultural identity. This article reviews these changing perspectives of Australian governments and communities within the context of international obligations and expectations; the experiences of those directly involved in border policing practices and in detention centres; and the attitudes of national media. Relations and conflicts among the interests of the different parties are discussed and the scope for less punitive responses to the plight of asylum seekers is examined. The authors then focus on alternative processes to better address the interests and objectives of legitimately interested parties by processes which successively examine, optimise and reconcile the concerns of each. In so doing, they aim to demonstrate that such methods of sequential problem solving can respond effectively to the multiple concerns of the many significant stakeholders involved in increasingly significant global issues, whereas recourse to such single-goal, top-down programs as are expressed in the government’s current determination to “Stop the boats” at all costs are unlikely to prove sustainable.

Efficient simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics with the Stochastic Bulirsch-Stoer extrapolation method

Background Biochemical systems with relatively low numbers of components must be simulated stochastically in order to capture their inherent noise. Although there has recently been considerable work on discrete stochastic solvers, there is still a need for numerical methods that are both fast and accurate. The Bulirsch-Stoer method is an established method for solving ordinary differential equations that possesses both of these qualities. Results In this paper, we present the Stochastic Bulirsch-Stoer method, a new numerical method for simulating discrete chemical reaction systems, inspired by its deterministic counterpart. It is able to achieve an excellent efficiency due to the fact that it is based on an approach with high deterministic order, allowing for larger stepsizes and leading to fast simulations. We compare it to the Euler τ-leap, as well as two more recent τ-leap methods, on a number of example problems, and find that as well as being very accurate, our method is the most robust, in terms of efficiency, of all the methods considered in this paper. The problems it is most suited for are those with increased populations that would be too slow to simulate using Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm. For such problems, it is likely to achieve higher weak order in the moments. Conclusions The Stochastic Bulirsch-Stoer method is a novel stochastic solver that can be used for fast and accurate simulations. Crucially, compared to other similar methods, it better retains its high accuracy when the timesteps are increased. Thus the Stochastic Bulirsch-Stoer method is both computationally efficient and robust. These are key properties for any stochastic numerical method, as they must typically run many thousands of simulations.

Exploring the nexus between tourism and output in Cook Islands: An ARDL bounds approach

Tourism plays an important role in the development of Cook Islands. In this paper we examine the nexus between tourism and growth using quarterly data over the period 2009Q1–2014Q2 using the recently upgraded ARDL bounds test to cointegration tool, Microfit 5.01, which provides sample adjusted bounds and hence is more reliable for small sample size studies. We perform the cointegration using the ARDL bounds test and examine the direction of causality. Using visitor arrival and output in per capita terms as respective proxy for tourism development and growth, we examine the long-run association and report the elasticity coefficient of tourism and causality nexus, accordingly. Using unit root break tests, we note that 2011Q1 and 2011Q2 are two structural break periods in the output series. However, we note that this period is not statistically significant in the ARDL model and hence excluded from the estimation. Subsequently, the regression results show the two series are cointegrated. The long-run elasticity coefficient of tourism is estimated to be 0.83 and the short-run is 0.73. A bidirectional causality between tourism and income is noted for Cook Islands which indicates that tourism development and income mutually reinforce each other. In light of this, socio-economic policies need to focus on broad-based, inclusive and income-generating tourism development projects which are expected to have feedback effect.

Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit

South Africa is an emerging and industrializing economy which is experiencing remarkable progress. We contend that amidst the developments in the economy, the role of energy, trade openness and financial development are critical. In this article, we revisit the pivotal role of these factors. We use the ARDL bounds [72], the Bayer and Hanck [11] cointegration techniques, and an extended Cobb–Douglas framework, to examine the long-run association with output per worker over the sample period 1971–2011. The results support long-run association between output per worker, capital per worker and the shift parameters. The short-run elasticity coefficients are as follows: energy (0.24), trade (0.07), financial development (−0.03). In the long-run, the elasticity coefficients are: trade openness (0.05), energy (0.29), and financial development (−0.04). In both the short-run and the long-run, we note the post-2000 period has a marginal positive effect on the economy. The Toda and Yamamoto [91] Granger causality results show that a unidirectional causality from capital stock and energy consumption to output; and from capital stock to trade openness; a bidirectional causality between trade openness and output; and absence (neutrality) of any causality between financial development and output thus indicating that these two variables evolve independent of each other.

Impacts of tillage and application methods on atrazine and alachlor losses from upland fields: Research paper

The effects of tillage practises and the methods of chemical application on atrazine and alachlor losses through run-off were evaluated for five treatments: conservation (untilled) and surface (US), disk and surface, plow and surface, disk and preplant-incorporated, and plow and preplant-incorporated treatments. A rainfall simulator was used to create 63.5 mm h^-1 of rainfall for 60 min and 127 mm h^-1 for 15 min. Rainfall simulation occurred 24-36 h after chemical application. There was no significant difference in the run-off volume among the treatments but the untilled treatment significantly reduced erosion loss. The untilled treatments had the highest herbicide concentration and the disk treatments were higher than the plow treatments. The surface treatments showed a higher concentration than the incorporated treatments. The concentration of herbicides in the water decreased with time. Among the experimental sites, the one with sandy loam soil produced the greatest losses, both in terms of the run-off volume and herbicide loss. The US treatments had the highest loss and the herbicide incorporation treatments had smaller losses through run-off as the residue cover was effective in preventing herbicide losses. Incorporation might be a favorable method of herbicide application to reduce the herbicide losses by run-off.

Physical activity cost in children following an acquired brain injury : a comparative study

Background: Alterations in energy expenditure during activity post head injury has not been investigated due primarily to the difficulty of measurement. Objective: The aim of this study was to compare energy expenditure during activity and body composition of children following acquired brain injury (ABI) with data from a group of normal controls. Design: Energy expenditure was measured using the Cosmed K4b2 in a group of 15 children with ABI and a group of 67 normal children during rest and when walking and running. Mean number of steps taken per 3 min run was also recorded and body composition was measured. Results: The energy expended during walking was not significantly different between both groups. A significant difference was found between the two groups in the energy expended during running and also for the number of steps taken as children with ABI took significantly less steps than the normal controls during a 3 min run. Conclusions: Children with ABI exert more energy per activity than healthy controls when controlled for velocity or distance. However, they expend less energy to walk and run when they are free to choose their own desirable, comfortable pace than normal controls. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of gas and air flow distributions on the performance of the Farleigh No. 3 boiler

As more raw sugar factories become involved in the manufacture of by-products and cogeneration, bagasse is becoming an increasingly valuable commodity. However, in most factories, most of the bagasse produced is used to generate steam in relatively old and inefficient boilers. Efficient bagasse fired boilers are a high capital cost item and the cost of supplying the steam required to run a sugar factory by other means is prohibitive. For many factories a more realistic way to reduce bagasse consumption is to increase the efficiency of existing boilers. The Farleigh No. 3 boiler is a relatively old low efficiency boiler. Like many in the industry, the performance of this boiler has been adversely affected by uneven gas and air flow distributions and air heater leaks. The combustion performance and efficiency of this boiler have been significantly improved by making the gas and air flow distributions through the boiler more uniform and repairing the air heater. The estimated bagasse savings easily justify the cost of the boiler improvements.