Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduction of Chromium from Al(2)O(3)-CaO-SiO(2)-CrOx Slags by Carbon Dissolved in Liquid Iron

The goal of this work is to investigate the reduction of chromium from a quaternary slag by carbon dissolved in liquid steel. Laboratory scale experiments were conducted to study the reduction of chromium oxides in the slag by carbon dissolved in the melt. These experiments were made under different conditions of slag basicity and amount of added carbon. Thermodynamic calculations based on Double Sublattice model were applied using the commercial software Thermo-Calc, with the IRSID database. The results obtained showed good correlation with practical and calculated results, making it possible to predict equilibrium conditions of the system and to determine the activities of chromium oxides in the slag.

Study on Iron Formation During the Carbothermic Reduction of Iron Ore in Carbon Composite Pellets in the Temperature Range 1423 K-1623 K

The aim of this work is to study the reaction rate and the morphology of the intermediary reaction products during reduction of iron ore, when iron ore and carbonaceous material are agglomerated together as a carbon composite iron ore pellet. The reaction was performed at high temperatures, and in order to avoid heat transfer constraints small size samples were used. The carbonaceous materials employed were coke breeze and pure graphite. Portland cement was employed as a binder, and the pellets diameter was 5.2 mm. The experimental technique involved the measurement of the pellets weight loss, as well as interruption of the reaction at different stages in order to submit the partially reduced pellet to scanning electron microscopy. It has been observed that above 1523 K there is the formation of liquid slag inside the pellets, which partially dissolves iron oxides. The apparent activation energies obtained were 255 kJ/mol for coke breeze containing pellets, and 230 kJ/mol for those pellets containing graphite. It was possible to avoid heat transfer control of the reaction rate up to 1523 K by employing small composite pellets.

Influence of Temperature, Basiscity and Particle Size on MnO Reduction

The aim of this work is to study MnO reduction by solid carbon. The influence of size of carbon particles, slag basicity, and bath temperature on MnO reduction was investigated. Fine Manganese ore particles were used as a source of MnO. Three sizes of carbon particles were used; 0.230 mm, 0.162 mm and 0.057 mm, binary basicity of 1 and 1.5 and temperatures of 1550, 1550 and 1600 degrees C. Curves were drawn for Mn content in the bath as a function of time and temperature for the several studied parameters. The MnO reduction rates were determined using these data. [doi:10.2320/matertrans.M2011007]

Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.

Optimization and Complexity Reduction of Switch-Reconfigured Antennas Using Graph Models

This letter addresses the optimization and complexity reduction of switch-reconfigured antennas. A new optimization technique based on graph models is investigated. This technique is used to minimize the redundancy in a reconfigurable antenna structure and reduce its complexity. A graph modeling rule for switch-reconfigured antennas is proposed, and examples are presented.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Modeling of transpiration reduction in van Genuchten-Mualem type soils

We derive an analytic expression for the matric flux potential (M) for van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) type soils which can also be written in terms of a converging infinite series. Considering the first four terms of this series, the accuracy of the approximation was verified by comparing it to values of M estimated by numerical finite difference integration. Using values of the parameters for three soils from different texture classes, the proposed four-term approximation showed an almost perfect match with the numerical solution, except for effective saturations higher than 0.9. Including more terms reduced the discrepancy but also increased the complexity of the equation. The four-term equation can be used for most applications. Cases with special interest in nearly saturated soils should include more terms from the infinite series. A transpiration reduction function for use with the VGM equations is derived by combining the derived expression for M with a root water extraction model. The shape of the resulting reduction function and its dependency on the derivative of the soil hydraulic diffusivity D with respect to the soil water content theta is discussed. Positive and negative values of dD/d theta yield concave and convex or S-shaped reduction functions, respectively. On the basis of three data sets, the hydraulic properties of virtually all soils yield concave reduction curves. Such curves based solely on soil hydraulic properties do not account for the complex interactions between shoot growth, root growth, and water availability.

LEAF AREA REDUCTION IN CORN GROWN IN A TROPICAL REGION OF BRAZIL AND ITS EFFECTS ON AGRONOMIC TRAITS

Global climate change may reduce leaf area in crop plants due to factors such as increasing occurrence of pests and diseases. The aim of this work was to estimate the impact of leaf area reduction on agronomic traits in corn. An experiment simulating leaf area reduction was carried out in a tropical region of Brazil. The agronomic performance of corn plants was evaluated at different percentages of leaf loss. It was observed that leaf area reductions over 41.01% significantly harm yield, mass of 1000 grains, cob density, and stem and root quality Crop improvement programs should take into account the development of genotypes resistant to factors that cause leaf area reduction in tropical crops.

Brazilian consumer views on food irradiation

This study investigated the consumer attitude to food irradiation in Sao Paulo, Brazil, through a qualitative research perspective. Three focus groups were conducted with 30 consumers, responsible for food choices and purchases. Both irradiated and nonirradiated food samples were served in the sessions to motivate the discussion and elicit the participants knowledge, opinions, feelings and concerns towards the irradiation process. Reactions were similar among the groups and differences between the irradiated and the nonirradiated samples were hardly perceived. When provided with positive information about irradiation and its benefits to foods and human health, many people still remained suspicious about the safety of the technology. Risk perception seemed to be related to unease and lack of knowledge about nuclear power and its non-defense use. Participants claimed for more transparency in communication about risks and benefits of irradiated foods to the human health, especially with respect to the continued consumption. Industrial relevance: Irradiation is an emerging food processing technology, which has been gaining interest by food technologists, producers and manufacturers all over the world in the last decades. Irradiation is suitable for disinfestation, microorganism load reduction or sterilization, assuring the safety, as well as having benefits in the shelf-life of foodstuffs. Food irradiation is approved in many countries and its use in food processing is endorsed by several reputed authorities, such as FAD and USDA. Despite the approval and recommendation, this technology still remains underutilized not only in Brazil, but also in other countries. The main reason appears to be the consumer concerns and doubts about the use of radiations in food processing. To develop communication strategies in promotion of irradiated foods it is necessary to investigate consumer attitudes, knowledge. opinions, as well as fears, with respect to the use of radiation in food processing. It is well-known that consumer views on technology may vary from a culture to another. So, findings from consumer research in a country may certainly not reflect the consumer views in other countries. In this sense, Brazilian studies focused on consumer views on food irradiation are necessary to gain understanding on how the local market accepts the technology. Brazil is one of the most important food producers in the world and an emerging consumer market with a population of about 184 million people. Food irradiation is regulated in Brazil since 1973, but to date only a few food ingredients are subjected to irradiation. The wide use of irradiation in food processing would favor Brazilian producers in the quality and safety assurance of food products, both for the local market and for exports. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cyclophosphamide levels in sites of preparation and administration of antineoplastic drugs

The extensive use of antineoplastic agents in chemotherapy may be at risk to health care workers involved in the preparation and administration of these drugs. In this study cyclophosphamide, a drug classified as a human carcinogen, was quantified by adapting a previous analytical method using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC-MS) after solid phase extraction with diatomaceous earth. The drug was measured by analysis in surfaces (wipe samples) and gloves, collected from four different hospitals, before and after the practice of cleaning procedures, and the use of a closed-system device for the preparation and administration. Validation results were satisfactory and cyclophosphamide levels ranging from below the quantification limit to 141000 ng. Our findings demonstrated that surfaces and materials contamination was found in all hospitals during the traditional open technique for preparation and administration of cyclophosphamide and a significant reduction in contamination when a closed-system device was used. However, some values were considered unexpected, especially those obtained from samples collected after the cleaning surfaces.

Influence of a probiotic soy product on fecal microbiota and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in an animal model

Background: Previous work showed that daily ingestion of an aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416, supplemented or not with isoflavones, reduced the total cholesterol and non-HDL-cholesterol levels, increased the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) concentration and inhibited the raising of autoantibody against oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL Ab) and the development of atherosclerotic lesions. Objective: The aim of this study was to characterize the fecal microbiota in order to investigate the possible correlation between fecal microbiota, serum lipid parameters and atherosclerotic lesion development in rabbits with induced hypercholesterolemia, that ingested the aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416. Methods: The rabbits were randomly allocated to five experimental groups (n = 6): control (C), hypercholesterolemic (H), hypercholesterolemic plus unfermented soy product (HUF), hypercholesterolemic plus fermented soy product (HF) and hypercholesterolemic plus isoflavone-supplemented fermented soy product (HIF). Lipid parameters and microbiota composition were analyzed on days 0 and 60 of the treatment and the atherosclerotic lesions were quantified at the end of the experiment. The fecal microbiota was characterized by enumerating the Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Enterococcus spp., Enterobacteria and Clostridium spp. populations. Results: After 60 days of the experiment, intake of the probiotic soy product was correlated with significant increases (P < 0.05) on Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp. and Enterococcus spp. and a decrease in the Enterobacteria population. A strong correlation was observed between microbiota composition and lipid profile. Populations of Enterococcus spp., Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. were negatively correlated with total cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol, autoantibodies against oxidized LDL (ox-LDL Ab) and lesion size. HDL-C levels were positively correlated with Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., and Enterococcus spp. populations. Conclusion: In conclusion, daily ingestion of the probiotic soy product, supplemented or not with isoflavones, may contribute to a beneficial balance of the fecal microbiota and this modulation is associated with an improved cholesterol profile and inhibition of atherosclerotic lesion development.

Pleiotropic Effects With Equivalent Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Reduction: Comparative Study Between Simvastatin and Simvastatin/Ezetimibe Coadministration

Background: Coadministration of any statin with ezetimibe is as effective as using high doses of the same statin in the reduction Of tow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c). There may be other effects called pleiotropics. Objective: To compare the effectiveness of 2 different treatments that obtain equivalent LDL-c reductions (80 mg of simvastatin, once a clay and coadministration of 10 mg of simvastatin and 10 mg of ezetimibe, once a day) over endothelial function and inflammation. Methods: Twenty-three randomized patients with hypercholesterolemia in a 2 X 2 crossover protocol were Studied. Endothelial function was analyzed by ultrasound assessment of endothelial dependent flow-mediated vasodilation of the brachial artery, and inflammation was estimated by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Results: LDL-c reduction was similar between the 2 treatments with simvastatin/ezetimibe and with simvastatin (P < 0.001); no difference between treatments was found (P = 0.968). Both treatments improved significantly the endothelial function [3.61% with simvastatin/ezetimibe (P = 0.003) and 5.08%. with simvastatin (P < 0.001)]; no difference was found between the 2 treatments (P = 0.291). hs-CRP had a 23% reduction with simvastatin/ezetimibe (P = 0.004) and a 30% reduction with simvastatin alone (P = 0.01), with no significant difference between the 2 treatments (P = 0.380). Conclusion: The 2 forms of treatment presented similar pleiotropic effects: improvement in endothelial function and decrease in hsCRP levels.