A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

Fluxo de fluído através de um meio poroso fractal desordenado. Análise das tensões de cisalhamento e efeito de escala na estimativa das forças viscosas

In this work we have investigated some aspects of the two-dimensional flow of a viscous Newtonian fluid through a disordered porous medium modeled by a random fractal system similar to the Sierpinski carpet. This fractal is formed by obstacles of various sizes, whose distribution function follows a power law. They are randomly disposed in a rectangular channel. The velocity field and other details of fluid dynamics are obtained by solving numerically of the Navier-Stokes and continuity equations at the pore level, where occurs actually the flow of fluids in porous media. The results of numerical simulations allowed us to analyze the distribution of shear stresses developed in the solid-fluid interfaces, and find algebraic relations between the viscous forces or of friction with the geometric parameters of the model, including its fractal dimension. Based on the numerical results, we proposed scaling relations involving the relevant parameters of the phenomenon, allowing quantifying the fractions of these forces with respect to size classes of obstacles. Finally, it was also possible to make inferences about the fluctuations in the form of the distribution of viscous stresses developed on the surface of obstacles.

Nutrients of pore water in sediments of the central equatorial Pacific

Shipboard whole-core squeezing was used to measure pore water concentration vs depth profiles of [NO3]-, O2 and SiO2 at 12 stations in the equatorial Pacific along a transect from 15°S to 11°N at 135°W. The [NO3]- and SiO2 profiles were combined with fine-scale resistivity and porosity measurements to calculate benthic fluxes. After using O2 profiles, coupled with the [NO3]- profiles, to constrain the C:N of the degrading organic matter, the [NO3]- fluxes were converted to benthic organic carbon degradation rates. The range in benthic organic carbon degradation rates is 7-30 ?mol cm**-2 y**-1, with maximum values at the equator and minimum values at the southern end of the transect. The zonal trend of benthic degradation rates, with its equatorial maximum and with elevated values skewed to the north of the equator, is similar to the pattern of primary production observed in the region. Benthic organic carbon degradation is 1-2% of primary production. The range of benthic biogenic silica dissolution rates is 6.9-20 µmol cm**-2 y**-1, representing 2.5-5% of silicon fixation in the surface ocean of the region. Its zonal pattern is distinctly different from that of organic carbon degradation: the range in the ratio of silica dissolution to carbon degradation along the transect is 0.44-1.7 mol Si mol C**-1, with maximum values occurring between 12°S and 2°S, and with fairly constant values of 0.5-0.7 north of the equator. A box model calculation of the average lifetime of the organic carbon in the upper 1 cm of the sediments, where 80 +/- 11% of benthic organic carbon degradation occurs, indicates that it is short: from 3.1 years at high flux stations to 11 years at low flux stations. The reactive component of the organic matter must have a shorter lifetime than this average value. In contrast, the average lifetime of biogenic silica in the upper centimeter of these sediments is 55 +/- 28 years, and shows no systematic variations with benthic flux.

Sulfate and methane concentrations measured in pore water of sediment core GeoB13809-1 and GeoB13849-1

Several previous studies have shown that submarine mass-movements can profoundly impact the shape of pore water profiles. Therefore, pore water geochemistry and diffusion models were proposed as tools for identifying and dating recent (max. several thousands of years old) mass-transport deposits (MTDs). In particular, sulfate profiles evidentially indicate transient pore water conditions generated by submarine landslides. After mass-movements that result in the deposition of sediment packages with distinct pore water signatures, the sulfate profiles can be kink-shaped and evolve into the concave and linear shape with time due to molecular diffusion. Here we present data from the RV METEOR cruise M78/3 along the continental margin off Uruguay and Argentina. Sulfate profiles of 15 gravity cores are compared with the respective acoustic facies recorded by a sediment echosounder system. Our results show that in this very dynamic depositional setting, non-steady state profiles occur often, but are not exclusively associated with mass-movements. Three sites that show acoustic indications for recent MTDs are presented in detail. Where recent MTDs are identified, a geochemical transport/reaction model is used to estimate the time that has elapsed since the perturbation of the pore water system and, thus, the timing of the MTD emplacement. We conclude that geochemical analyses are a powerful complementary tool in the identification of recent MTDs and provide a simple and accurate way of dating such deposits.

Pore water and solid-phase measurements on sediment cores from the Black Sea

The surface sediments in the Black Sea are underlain by extensive deposits of iron (Fe) oxide-rich lake sediments that were deposited prior to the inflow of marine Mediterranean Sea waters ca. 9000 years ago. The subsequent downward diffusion of marine sulfate into the methane-bearing lake sediments has led to a multitude of diagenetic reactions in the sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ), including anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) with sulfate. While the sedimentary cycles of sulfur (S), methane and Fe in the SMTZ have been extensively studied, relatively little is known about the diagenetic alterations of the sediment record occurring below the SMTZ. Here we combine detailed geochemical analyses of the sediment and pore water with multicomponent diagenetic modeling to study the diagenetic alterations below the SMTZ at two sites in the western Black Sea. We focus on the dynamics of Fe, S and phosphorus (P) and demonstrate that diagenesis has strongly overprinted the sedimentary burial records of these elements. Our results show that sulfate-mediated AOM substantially enhances the downward diffusive flux of sulfide into the deep limnic deposits. During this downward sulfidization, Fe oxides, Fe carbonates and Fe phosphates (e.g. vivianite) are converted to sulfide phases, leading to an enrichment in solid phase S and the release of phosphate to the pore water. Below the sulfidization front, high concentrations of dissolved ferrous Fe (Fe2+) lead to sequestration of downward diffusing phosphate as authigenic vivianite, resulting in a transient accumulation of total P directly below the sulfidization front. Our model results further demonstrate that downward migrating sulfide becomes partly re-oxidized to sulfate due to reactions with oxidized Fe minerals, fueling a cryptic S cycle and thus stimulating slow rates of sulfate-driven AOM (~ 1-100 pmol/cm**3/d) in the sulfate-depleted limnic deposits. However, this process is unlikely to explain the observed release of dissolved Fe2+ below the SMTZ. Instead, we suggest that besides organoclastic Fe oxide reduction, AOM coupled to the reduction of Fe oxides may also provide a possible mechanism for the high concentrations of Fe2+ in the pore water at depth. Our results reveal that methane plays a key role in the diagenetic alterations of Fe, S and P records in Black Sea sediments. The downward sulfidization into the limnic deposits is enhanced through sulfate-driven AOM with sulfate and AOM with Fe oxides may provide a deep source of dissolved Fe2+ that drives the sequestration of P in vivianite below the sulfidization front.

The transducer model for contrast detection and discrimination: formal relations, implications, and an empirical test.

The transducer function mu for contrast perception describes the nonlinear mapping of stimulus contrast onto an internal response. Under a signal detection theory approach, the transducer model of contrast perception states that the internal response elicited by a stimulus of contrast c is a random variable with mean mu(c). Using this approach, we derive the formal relations between the transducer function, the threshold-versus-contrast (TvC) function, and the psychometric functions for contrast detection and discrimination in 2AFC tasks. We show that the mathematical form of the TvC function is determined only by mu, and that the psychometric functions for detection and discrimination have a common mathematical form with common parameters emanating from, and only from, the transducer function mu and the form of the distribution of the internal responses. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these relations, which have bearings on the tenability of certain mathematical forms for the psychometric function and on the suitability of empirical approaches to model validation. We also present the results of a comprehensive test of these relations using two alternative forms of the transducer model: a three-parameter version that renders logistic psychometric functions and a five-parameter version using Foley's variant of the Naka-Rushton equation as transducer function. Our results support the validity of the formal relations implied by the general transducer model, and the two versions that were contrasted account for our data equally well.

Toy model to describe the effect of positional blocklike disorder in metamaterials composites

We study theoretically the effect of a new type of blocklike positional disorder on the effective electromagnetic properties of one-dimensional chains of resonant, high-permittivity dielectric particles, where particles are arranged into perfectly well-ordered blocks whose relative position is a random variable. This creates a finite order correlation length that mimics the situation encountered in metamaterials fabricated through self-assembled techniques, whose structures often display short-range order between near neighbors but long-range disorder, due to stacking defects. Using a spectral theory approach combined with a principal component statistical analysis, we study, in the long-wavelength regime, the evolution of the electromagnetic response when the composite filling fraction and the block size are changed. Modifications in key features of the resonant response (amplitude, width, etc.) are investigated, showing a regime transition for a filling fraction around 50%.

A model for the modular evolution of rna addressing open questions on the origin of life

A main unsolved problem in the RNA world scenario for the origin of life is how a template-dependent RNA polymerase ribozyme emerged from short RNA oligomers generated by random polymerization of ribonucleotides (Joyce and Orgel 2006). Current estimates establish a minimum size about 165 nt long for such a ribozyme (Johnston et al. 2001), a length three to four times that of the longest RNA oligomers obtained by random polymerization on clay mineral surfaces (Huang and Ferris 2003, 2006). To overcome this gap, we have developed a stepwise model of ligation-based, modular evolution of RNA (Briones et al. 2009) whose main conceptual steps are summarized in Figure 1. This scenario has two main advantages with respect to previous hypotheses put forward for the origin of the RNA world: i) short RNA....

Mechanism that dictates pore width and <111>a pore propagation in InP

We report a mechanism for pore growth and propagation based on a three-step charge transfer model. The study is supported by electron microscopy analysis of highly doped n-InP samples anodised in aqueous KOH. The model and experimental data are used to explain propagation of pores of characteristic diameter preferentially along the <111>A directions. We also show evidence for deviation of pore growth from the <111>A directions and explain why such deviations should occur. The model is self-consistent and predicts how carrier concentration affects the internal dimensions of the porous structures.

Bioengineered Approaches to Prevent Hypertrophic Scar Contraction

Burn injuries in the United States account for over one million hospital admissions per year, with treatment estimated at four billion dollars. Of severe burn patients, 30-90% will develop hypertrophic scars (HSc). Current burn therapies rely upon the use of bioengineered skin equivalents (BSEs), which assist in wound healing but do not prevent HSc. HSc contraction occurs of 6-18 months and results in the formation of a fixed, inelastic skin deformity, with 60% of cases occurring across a joint. HSc contraction is characterized by abnormally high presence of contractile myofibroblasts which normally apoptose at the completion of the proliferative phase of wound healing. Additionally, clinical observation suggests that the likelihood of HSc is increased in injuries with a prolonged immune response. Given the pathogenesis of HSc, we hypothesize that BSEs should be designed with two key anti-scarring characterizes: (1) 3D architecture and surface chemistry to mitigate the inflammatory microenvironment and decrease myofibroblast transition; and (2) using materials which persist in the wound bed throughout the remodeling phase of repair. We employed electrospinning and 3D printing to generate scaffolds with well-controlled degradation rate, surface coatings, and 3D architecture to explore our hypothesis through four aims.

In the first aim, we evaluate the impact of elastomeric, randomly-oriented biostable polyurethane (PU) scaffold on HSc-related outcomes. In unwounded skin, native collagen is arranged randomly, elastin fibers are abundant, and myofibroblasts are absent. Conversely, in scar contractures, collagen is arranged in linear arrays and elastin fibers are few, while myofibroblast density is high. Randomly oriented collagen fibers native to the uninjured dermis encourage random cell alignment through contact guidance and do not transmit as much force as aligned collagen fibers. However, the linear ECM serves as a system for mechanotransduction between cells in a feed-forward mechanism, which perpetuates ECM remodeling and myofibroblast contraction. The electrospinning process allowed us to create scaffolds with randomly-oriented fibers that promote random collagen deposition and decrease myofibroblast formation. Compared to an in vitro HSc contraction model, fibroblast-seeded PU scaffolds significantly decreased matrix and myofibroblast formation. In a murine HSc model, collagen coated PU (ccPU) scaffolds significantly reduced HSc contraction as compared to untreated control wounds and wounds treated with the clinical standard of care. The data from this study suggest that electrospun ccPU scaffolds meet the requirements to mitigate HSc contraction including: reduction of in vitro HSc related outcomes, diminished scar stiffness, and reduced scar contraction. While clinical dogma suggests treating severe burn patients with rapidly biodegrading skin equivalents, these data suggest that a more long-term scaffold may possess merit in reducing HSc.

In the second aim, we further investigate the impact of scaffold longevity on HSc contraction by studying a degradable, elastomeric, randomly oriented, electrospun micro-fibrous scaffold fabricated from the copolymer poly(l-lactide-co-ε-caprolactone) (PLCL). PLCL scaffolds displayed appropriate elastomeric and tensile characteristics for implantation beneath a human skin graft. In vitro analysis using normal human dermal fibroblasts (NHDF) demonstrated that PLCL scaffolds decreased myofibroblast formation as compared to an in vitro HSc contraction model. Using our murine HSc contraction model, we found that HSc contraction was significantly greater in animals treated with standard of care, Integra, as compared to those treated with collagen coated-PLCL (ccPLCL) scaffolds at d 56 following implantation. Finally, wounds treated with ccPLCL were significantly less stiff than control wounds at d 56 in vivo. Together, these data further solidify our hypothesis that scaffolds which persist throughout the remodeling phase of repair represent a clinically translatable method to prevent HSc contraction.

In the third aim, we attempt to optimize cell-scaffold interactions by employing an anti-inflammatory coating on electrospun PLCL scaffolds. The anti-inflammatory sub-epidermal glycosaminoglycan, hyaluronic acid (HA) was used as a coating material for PLCL scaffolds to encourage a regenerative healing phenotype. To minimize local inflammation, an anti-TNFα monoclonal antibody (mAB) was conjugated to the HA backbone prior to PLCL coating. ELISA analysis confirmed mAB activity following conjugation to HA (HA+mAB), and following adsorption of HA+mAB to the PLCL backbone [(HA+mAB)PLCL]. Alican blue staining demonstrated thorough HA coating of PLCL scaffolds using pressure-driven adsorption. In vitro studies demonstrated that treatment with (HA+mAB)PLCL prevented downstream inflammatory events in mouse macrophages treated with soluble TNFα. In vivo studies using our murine HSc contraction model suggested positive impact of HA coating, which was partiall impeded by the inclusion of the TNFα mAB. Further characterization of the inflammatory microenvironment of our murine model is required prior to conclusions regarding the potential for anti-TNFα therapeutics for HSc. Together, our data demonstrate the development of a complex anti-inflammatory coating for PLCL scaffolds, and the potential impact of altering the ECM coating material on HSc contraction.

In the fourth aim, we investigate how scaffold design, specifically pore dimensions, can influence myofibroblast interactions and subsequent formation of OB-cadherin positive adherens junctions in vitro. We collaborated with Wake Forest University to produce 3D printed (3DP) scaffolds with well-controlled pore sizes we hypothesized that decreasing pore size would mitigate intra-cellular communication via OB-cadherin-positive adherens junctions. PU was 3D printed via pressure extrusion in basket-weave design with feature diameter of ~70 µm and pore sizes of 50, 100, or 150 µm. Tensile elastic moduli of 3DP scaffolds were similar to Integra; however, flexural moduli of 3DP were significantly greater than Integra. 3DP scaffolds demonstrated ~50% porosity. 24 h and 5 d western blot data demonstrated significant increases in OB-cadherin expression in 100 µm pores relative to 50 µm pores, suggesting that pore size may play a role in regulating cell-cell communication. To analyze the impact of pore size in these scaffolds on scarring in vivo, scaffolds were implanted beneath skin graft in a murine HSc model. While flexural stiffness resulted in graft necrosis by d 14, cellular and blood vessel integration into scaffolds was evident, suggesting potential for this design if employed in a less stiff material. In this study, we demonstrate for the first time that pore size alone impacts OB-cadherin protein expression in vitro, suggesting that pore size may play a role on adherens junction formation affiliated with the fibroblast-to-myofibroblast transition. Overall, this work introduces a new bioengineered scaffold design to both study the mechanism behind HSc and prevent the clinical burden of this contractile disease.

Together, these studies inform the field of critical design parameters in scaffold design for the prevention of HSc contraction. We propose that scaffold 3D architectural design, surface chemistry, and longevity can be employed as key design parameters during the development of next generation, low-cost scaffolds to mitigate post-burn hypertrophic scar contraction. The lessening of post-burn scarring and scar contraction would improve clinical practice by reducing medical expenditures, increasing patient survival, and dramatically improving quality of life for millions of patients worldwide.

(Table 1) Chemical and isotopic composition of pore fluids in cores TGC-1 and TGC-6

The role of sediment diagenesis in the marine cycles of Li and B is poorly understood. Because Li and B are easily mobilized during burial and are consumed in authigenic clay mineral formation, their abundance in marine pore waters varies considerably. Exchange with the overlying ocean through diffusive fluxes should thus be common. Nevertheless, only a minor Li sink associated with the low-temperature alteration of volcanic ash has been observed. We describe a low-temperature diagenetic environment in the Black Sea dominated by the alteration of detrital plagioclase feldspars. Fluids expelled from the Odessa mud volcano in the Sorokin Trough originate from shallow (~100-400 m deep) sediments which are poor in volcanic materials but rich in anorthite. These fluids are depleted in Na+, K+, Li+, B, and 18O and enriched in Ca2+ and Sr2+, indicating that anorthite is dissolving and authigenic clays are forming. Using a simple chemical model, we calculate the pH and the partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) in fluids associated with this alteration process. Our results show that the pH of these fluids is up to 1.5 pH units lower than in most deep marine sediments and that PCO2 levels are up to several hundred times higher than in the atmosphere. These conditions are similar to those which favor the weathering of silicate minerals in subaerial soil environments. We propose that in Black Sea sediments enhanced organic matter preservation favors CO2 production through methanogenesis and results in a low pore water pH, compared to most deep sea sediments. As a result, silicate mineral weathering, which is a sluggish process in most marine diagenetic environments, proceeds rapidly in Black Sea sediments. There is a potential for organic matter-rich continental shelf environments to host this type of diagenesis. Should such environments be widespread, this new Li and B sink could help balance the marine Li and Li isotope budgets but would imply an apparent imbalance in the B cycle.