The forward and the equity premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

The Forward Premium Puzzle (FPP) is how the empirical observation of a negative relation between future changes in the spot rates and the forward premium is known. Modeling this forward bias as a risk premium and under weak assumptions on the behavior of the pricing kernel, we characterize the potential bias that is present in the regressions where the FPP is observed and we identify the necessary and sufficient conditions that the pricing kernel has to satisfy to account for the predictability of exchange rate movements. Next, we estimate the pricing kernel applying two methods: i) one, du.e to Araújo et aI. (2005), that exploits the fact that the pricing kernel is a serial correlation common feature of asset prices, and ii) a traditional principal component analysis used as a procedure 1;0 generate a statistical factor modeI. Then, using on the sample and out of the sample exercises, we are able to show that the same kernel that explains the Equity Premi um Puzzle (EPP) accounts for the FPP in all our data sets. This suggests that the quest for an economic mo deI that generates a pricing kernel which solves the EPP may double its prize by simultaneously accounting for the FPP.

Impacto dos países desenvolvidos e emergentes na economia brasileira

A proposta desta dissertação é analisar o comportamento econômico brasileiro em relação às demais economias de países emergentes e desenvolvidos, utilizando-se como metodologia a análise de componentes principais com variáveis de crescimento econômico e macroeconômicas como inflação, bolsa, moeda e juros. Visando obter uma robustez maior nos resultados foram realizados dois exercícios, primeiro buscou-se comparar o resultado obtido para o Brasil com outros países. No segundo exercício a comparação foi realizada para diferentes períodos de tempo, de maneira de separar o período em pré e pós-crise de 2009.

Solid phase microextraction, mass spectrometry and metabolomic approaches for detection of potential urinary cancer biomarkers: a powerful strategy for breast cancer diagnosis

A sensitive assay to identify volatile organic metabolites (VOMs) as biomarkers that can accurately diagnose the onset of breast cancer using non-invasively collected clinical specimens is ideal for early detection. Therefore the aim of this study was to establish the urinary metabolomic profile of breast cancer patients and healthy individuals (control group) and to explore the VOMs as potential biomarkers in breast cancer diagnosis at early stage. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) using CAR/PDMS sorbent combined with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry was applied to obtain metabolomic information patterns of 26 breast cancer patients and 21 healthy individuals (controls). A total of seventy-nine VOMs, belonging to distinct chemical classes, were detected and identified in control and breast cancer groups. Ketones and sulfur compounds were the chemical classes with highest contribution for both groups. Results showed that excretion values of 6 VOMs among the total of 79 detected were found to be statistically different (p < 0.05). A significant increase in the peak area of (−)-4-carene, 3-heptanone, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, 2-methoxythiophene and phenol, in VOMs of cancer patients relatively to controls was observed. Statiscally significant lower abundances of dimethyl disulfide were found in cancer patients. Bioanalytical data were submitted to multivariate statistics [principal component analysis (PCA)], in order to visualize clusters of cases and to detect the VOMs that are able to differentiate cancer patients from healthy individuals. Very good discrimination within breast cancer and control groups was achieved. Nevertheless, a deep study using a larger number of patients must be carried out to confirm the results.

Solid phase microextraction as a reliable alternative to conventional extraction techniques to evaluate the pattern of hydrolytically released components in Vitis vinifera L. grapes

In present research, headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) followed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–qMS), was evaluated as a reliable and improved alternative to the commonly used liquid–liquid extraction (LLE) technique for the establishment of the pattern of hydrolytically released components of 7 Vitis vinifera L. grape varieties, commonly used to produce the world-famous Madeira wine. Since there is no data available on their glycosidic fractions, at a first step, two hydrolyse procedures, acid and enzymatic, were carried out using Boal grapes as matrix. Several parameters susceptible of influencing the hydrolytic process were studied. The best results, expressed as GC peak area, number of identified components and reproducibility, were obtained using ProZym M with b-glucosidase activity at 35 °C for 42 h. For the extraction of hydrolytically released components, HS-SPME technique was evaluated as a reliable and improved alternative to the conventional extraction technique, LLE (ethyl acetate). HS-SPME using DVB/CAR/PDMS as coating fiber displayed an extraction capacity two fold higher than LLE (ethyl acetate). The hydrolyzed fraction was mainly characterized by the occurrence of aliphatic and aromatic alcohols, followed by acids, esters, carbonyl compounds, terpenoids, and volatile phenols. Concerning to terpenoids its contribution to the total hydrolyzed fraction is highest for Malvasia Cândida (23%) and Malvasia Roxa (13%), and their presence according previous studies, even at low concentration, is important from a sensorial point of view (can impart floral notes to the wines), due to their low odor threshold (μg/L). According to the obtained data by principal component analysis (PCA), the sensorial properties of Madeira wines produced by Malvasia Cândida and Malvasia Roxa could be improved by hydrolysis procedure, since their hydrolyzed fraction is mainly characterized by terpenoids (e.g. linalool, geraniol) which are responsible for floral notes. Bual and Sercial grapes are characterized by aromatic alcohols (e.g. benzyl alcohol, 2-phenylethyl alcohol), so an improvement in sensorial characteristics (citrus, sweet and floral odors) of the corresponding wines, as result of hydrolytic process, is expected.

Headspace solid-phase microextraction-gas chromatography-quadrupole mass spectrometric methodology for the establishment of the volatile composition of Passiflora fruit species

Dynamic headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) followed by thermal desorption gas chromatography-quadrupole mass spectrometry analysis (GC-qMS), was used to investigate the aroma profile of different species of passion fruit samples. The performance of five commercially available SPME fibres: 65 μm polydimethylsiloxane/divinylbenzene, PDMS/DVB; 100 μm polydimethylsiloxane, PDMS; 85 μm polyacrylate, PA; 50/30 μm divinylbenzene/carboxen on polydimethylsiloxane, DVB/CAR/PDMS (StableFlex); and 75 μm carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane, CAR/PDMS; was evaluated and compared. Several extraction times and temperature conditions were also tested to achieve optimum recovery. The SPME fibre coated with 65 μm PDMS/DVB afforded the highest extraction efficiency, when the samples were extracted at 50 °C for 40 min with a constant stirring velocity of 750 rpm, after saturating the sample with NaCl (17%, w/v — 0.2 g). A comparison among different passion fruit species has been established in terms of qualitative and semi-quantitative differences in volatile composition. By using the optimal extraction conditions and GC-qMS it was possible to tentatively identify seventy one different compounds in Passiflora species: 51 volatiles in Passiflora edulis Sims (purple passion fruit), 24 in P. edulis Sims f. flavicarpa (yellow passion fruit) and 21 compounds in Passiflora mollissima (banana passion fruit). It was found that the ethyl esters comprise the largest class of the passion fruit volatiles, including 82.8% in P. edulis variety, 77.4% in P. edulis Sims f. flavicarpa variety and 39.9% in P. mollissima. The semi-quantitative results were then submitted to principal component analysis (PCA) in order to establish relationships between the compounds and the different passion fruit species under investigation.

Optimisation of solid-phase microextraction combined with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry based methodology to establish the global volatile signature in pulp and skin of Vitis vinifera L. grape varieties

The volatiles (VOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) responsible for aroma are mainly present in skin of grape varieties. Thus, the present investigation is directed towards the optimisation of a solvent free methodology based on headspace-solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC–qMS) in order to establish the global volatile composition in pulp and skin of Bual and Bastardo Vitis vinifera L. varieties. A deep study on the extraction-influencing parameters was performed, and the best results, expressed as GC peak area, number of identified compounds and reproducibility, were obtained using 4 g of sample homogenised in 5 mL of ultra-pure Milli-Q water in a 20 mL glass vial with addition of 2 g of sodium chloride (NaCl). A divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane fibre was selected for extraction at 60 °C for 45 min under continuous stirring at 800 rpm. More than 100 VOCs and SVOCs, including 27 monoterpenoids, 27 sesquiterpenoids, 21 carbonyl compounds, 17 alcohols (from which 2 aromatics), 10 C13 norisoprenoids and 5 acids were identified. The results showed that, for both grape varieties, the levels and number of volatiles in skin were considerably higher than those observed in pulp. According to the data obtained by principal component analysis (PCA), the establishment of the global volatile signature of grape and the relationship between different part of grapes—pulp and skin, may be an useful tool to winemaker decision to define the vinification procedures that improves the organoleptic characteristics of the corresponding wines and consequently contributed to an economic valorization and consumer acceptance.

Detecting cell assemblies in large neuronal populations

Recent progress in the technology for single unit recordings has given the neuroscientific community theopportunity to record the spiking activity of large neuronal populations. At the same pace, statistical andmathematical tools were developed to deal with high-dimensional datasets typical of such recordings.A major line of research investigates the functional role of subsets of neurons with significant co-firingbehavior: the Hebbian cell assemblies. Here we review three linear methods for the detection of cellassemblies in large neuronal populations that rely on principal and independent component analysis.Based on their performance in spike train simulations, we propose a modified framework that incorpo-rates multiple features of these previous methods. We apply the new framework to actual single unitrecordings and show the existence of cell assemblies in the rat hippocampus, which typically oscillate attheta frequencies and couple to different phases of the underlying field rhythm

Diagnóstico ecotoxicológico dos efluentes lançados no complexo estuarino do Jundiaí/Potengi, Natal/RN

Untreated effluents that reach surface water affect the aquatic life and humans. This study aimed to evaluate the wastewater s toxicity (municipal, industrial and shrimp pond effluents) released in the Estuarine Complex of Jundiaí- Potengi, Natal/RN, through chronic quantitative e qualitative toxicity tests using the test organism Mysidopsis Juniae, CRUSTACEA, MYSIDACEA (Silva, 1979). For this, a new methodology for viewing chronic effects on organisms of M. juniae was used (only renewal), based on another existing methodology to another testorganism very similar to M. Juniae, the M. Bahia (daily renewal).Toxicity tests 7 days duration were used for detecting effects on the survival and fecundity in M. juniae. Lethal Concentration 50% (LC50%) was determined by the Trimmed Spearman-Karber; Inhibition Concentration 50% (IC50%) in fecundity was determined by Linear Interpolation. ANOVA (One Way) tests (p = 0.05) were used to determinate the No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) and Low Observed Effect Concentration (LOEC). Effluents flows were measured and the toxic load of the effluents was estimated. Multivariate analysis - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Correspondence Analysis (CA) - identified the physic-chemical parameters better explain the patterns of toxicity found in survival and fecundity of M. juniae. We verified the feasibility of applying the only renewal system in chronic tests with M. Juniae. Most efluentes proved toxic on the survival and fecundity of M. Juniae, except for some shrimp pond effluents. The most toxic effluent was ETE Lagoa Aerada (LC50, 6.24%; IC50, 4.82%), ETE Quintas (LC50, 5.85%), Giselda Trigueiro Hospital (LC50, 2.05%), CLAN (LC50, 2.14%) and COTEMINAS (LC50, IC50 and 38.51%, 6.94%). The greatest toxic load was originated from ETE inefficient high flow effluents, textile effluents and CLAN. The organic load was related to the toxic effects of wastewater and hospital effluents in survival of M. Juniae, as well as heavy metals, total residual chlorine and phenols. In industrial effluents was found relationship between toxicity and organic load, phenols, oils and greases and benzene. The effects on fertility were related, in turn, with chlorine and heavy metals. Toxicity tests using other organisms of different trophic levels, as well as analysis of sediment toxicity are recommended to confirm the patterns found with M. Juniae. However, the results indicate the necessity for implementation and improvement of sewage treatment systems affluent to the Potengi s estuary

Ecomorfologia de dez espécies de peixes marinhos mais abundantes de Galinhos/RN

Ecomorphology is a science based on the idea that morphological differences among species could be associated with distinct biological and environmental pressures suffered by them. These differences can be studied employing morphological and biometric indexes denominated Ecomorphological attributes , representing standards that express characteristics of the individual in relation to its environment, and can be interpreted as indicators of life habits or adaptations suffered due its occupation of different habitats. This work aims to contribute for the knowledge of the ecomorphology of the Brazilian marine ichthyofauna, specifically from Galinhos, located at Rio Grande do Norte state. 10 different species of fish were studied, belonging the families Gerreidae (Eucinostomus argenteus), Haemulidae (Orthopristis ruber,Pomadasyscorvinaeformis,Haemulonaurolineatum,Haemulonplumieri,Haemulonsteindachneri), Lutjanidae (Lutjanus synagris), Paralichthyidae (Syaciummicrurum), Bothidae (Bothus ocellatus) and Tetraodontidae (Sphoeroidestestudineus), which were obtained during five collections, in the period time of September/2004 to April/2005, utilizing three special nets. The ecomorphological study was performed at the laboratory. Eight to ten samples of each fish specie were measured. Fifteen morphological aspects were considered to calculate twelve ecomorphological attributes. Multivariate statistical analysis methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis were done to identify ecmorphological patterns to describe the data set obtained. As results, H.aurolineatumwas the most abundant specie found (23,03%) and S.testudineusthe less one with 0,23%. The 1st Principal component showed variation of 60,03% with influence of the ecomorphological attribute related to body morphology, while the 2nd PC with 23,25% variation had influence of the ecomorphological attribute related to oral morphology. The Cluster Analiysis promoted the identification of three distinct groups Perciformes, Pleuronectiformes and Tetraodontiformes. Based on the obtained data, considering morphological characters differences among the species studied, we suggest that all of them live at the medium (E.argenteus,O.rubber, P.corvinaeformis,H.aurolineatum,H.plumieri,H.steindachneri,L.synagris) and bottom (S.micrurum,B.ocellatus,S.testudineus) region of column water.

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period