991 resultados para Precipitation variability


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11-year satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) anomaly data from January 1993 to December 2003 are used to present the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes show the obvious seasonal variations of SSH in the SCS. EOF mode one is generally characterized by a basin-wide circulation. Mode two describes the double-cell basin scale circulation structure. The two cells were located off west of the Luzon Island and southeast of Vietnam, respectively. EOF mode three presents the mesoscale eddy structure in the western SCS, which develops into a strong cyclonic eddy rapidly from July to September. EOF mode one and mode three are also embedded with interannual signals, indicating that the SCS surface circulation variation is influenced by El Nino events prominently. The strong El Nino of 1997/98 obviously changed the SCS circulation structure. This study also shows that there existed a series of mesoscale eddies in the western SCS, and their temporal variation indicates intra-seasonal and interannual signals.

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利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射(OLR)等资料,应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法,研究了东亚夏季风(EASM)的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下: (1)综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数,并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现,气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率,主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起,造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化,在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变,造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 (2)东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期,以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态,第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势;第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制,主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势;第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 (3)热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此,在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下,大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播,副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区,乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主;北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 (4)季风爆发期,伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋, 冷空气向南输送,10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下,ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋(EAP)以及太平洋-北美(PNA)低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强,东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态,30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性;30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 (5)30-60d滤波场,菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时,季风槽加强、东伸,季风槽内热带气旋(TC)频数增加;当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时,季风槽减弱、西退,TC处于间歇期,生成位置不集中。 (6)在El Nino态下,大气季节内振荡偏弱,北传特征不明显,但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著,东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主,EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域,常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现,易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害,长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下,大气季节内振荡活跃,且具有明显的向北传播特征,PNA低频波列显著,东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主;EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区,这些地区出现异常持续强降水,华南和淮河流域多干旱;在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期,ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主,长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

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To investigate the seasonal and interannual variations in biological productivity in the South China Sea (SCS), a Pacific basin-wide physical - biogeochemical model has been developed and used to estimate the biological productivity and export flux in the SCS. The Pacific circulation model, based on the Regional Ocean Model Systems (ROMS), is forced with daily air-sea fluxes derived from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis between 1990 and 2004. The biogeochemical processes are simulated with a carbon, Si(OH)(4), and nitrogen ecosystem (CoSiNE) model consisting of silicate, nitrate, ammonium, two phytoplankton groups (small phytoplankton and large phytoplankton), two zooplankton grazers (small micrograzers and large mesozooplankton), and two detritus pools. The ROMS-CoSiNE model favourably reproduces many of the observed features, such as ChI a, nutrients, and primary production (PP) in the SCS. The modelled depth-integrated PP over the euphotic zone (0-125 m) varies seasonally, with the highest value of 386 mg C m (-2) d (-1) during winter and the lowest value of 156 mg C m (-2) d (-1) during early summer. The annual mean value is 196 mg C m (-2) d (-1). The model-integrated annual mean new production (uptake of nitrate), in carbon units, is 64.4 mg C m (-2) d (-1) which yields an f-ratio of 0.33 for the entire SCS. The modelled export ratio (e-ratio: the ratio of export to PP) is 0.24 for the basin-wide SCS. The year-to-year variation of biological productivity in the SCS is weaker than the seasonal variation. The large phytoplankton group tends to dominate over the smaller phytoplankton group, and likely plays an important role in determining the interannual variability of primary and new production.

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Phytoplankton size structure plays a significant role in controlling the carbon flux of marine pelagic ecosystems. The mesoscale distribution and seasonal variation of total and size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass in surface waters. as measured by chlorophyll a (Chl a), was studied in the Southern Yellow Sea using data from four cruises during 2006-2007. The distribution of Chl a showed a high degree of spatial and temporal variation in the study area. Chl a concentrations were relatively high in the summer and autumn, with a mean of 142 and 1.27 mg m(-3), respectively. Conversely, in the winter and spring. the average Chl a levels were only 098 and 0.99 mg m(-3) Total Chl a showed a clear decreasing gradient from coastal areas to the open sea in the summer, autumn and winter cruises. Patches of high Chl a were observed in the central part of the Southern Yellow Sea in the spring due to the onset of the phytoplankton bloom. The eutrophic coastal waters contributed at least 68% of the total phytoplankton biomass in the surface layer. Picophytoplankton showed a consistent and absolute dominance in the central region of the Southern Yellow Sea (>40%) in all of the cruises, while the proportion of microphytoplankton was the highest in coastal waters The relative proportions of pico- and nanophytoplankton decreased with total biomass, whereas the proportion of the micro-fraction increased with total biomass. Relationships between phytoplankton biomass and environmental factors were also analysed. The results showed that the onset of the spring bloom was highly dependent on water column stability. Phytoplankton growth was limited by nutrient availability in the summer due to the strong thermocline. The combined effects of P-limitation and vertical mixing in the autumn restrained the further increase of phytoplankton biomass in the Surface layer. The low phytoplankton biomass in winter was caused by vertical dispersion due to intense mixing. Compared with the availability of nutrients. temperature did not seem to cause direct effects on phytoplankton biomass and its size structure. Although interactions of many different environmental factors affected phytoplankton distributions. hydrodynamic conditions seemed to be the dominant factor. Phytoplankton size structure was determined mainly by the size-differential capacity in acquiring resource. Short time scale events, such as the spring bloom and the extension of Yangtze River plume, can have substantial influences, both on the total Chl a concentration and on the size structure of the phytoplankton. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Temporal and spatial variability in the kinetic parameters of uptake of nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), urea, and glycine was measured during dinoflagellate blooms in Changjiang River estuary and East China Sea coast, 2005. Karenia mikimotoi was the dominant species in the early stage of the blooms and was succeeded by Prorocentrum donghaiense. The uptake of nitrogen (N) was determined using N-15 tracer techniques. The results of comparison kinetic parameters with ambient nutrients confirmed that different N forms were preferentially taken up during different stages of the bloom. NO3- (V-max 0.044 h(-1); K-s 60.8 mu M-N) was an important N source before it was depleted. NH4+ (V-max 0.049 h(-1); K-s 2.15 mu M-N) was generally the preferred N. Between the 2 organic N sources, urea was more preferred when K. mikimotoi dominated the bloom (V-max 0.020 h(-1); K-s 1.35 mu M-N) and glycine, considered as a dominant amino acid, was more preferred when P. donghaiense dominated the bloom (V-max 0.025 h(-1); K-s 1.76 mu M-N). The change of N uptake preference by the bloom-forming algae was also related to the variation in ambient N concentrations. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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High molecular weight dissolved organic matter (HMW-DOM, > 1000 Da) represents a major fraction (> 30%) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the ocean and thus plays an important role in the global biogeochemical cycling of carbon and many other elements. Its organic sources and formation mechanisms, however, are still not well understood especially in estuarine and coastal regions where multiple natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to total HMW-DOM. In this paper we report our measurements of natural radiocarbon (C-14) abundances and stable carbon isotope (C-13) compositions of the major biochemical compound classes: amino acids, carbohydrates and lipids separated from eight HMW-DOM samples collected from five US estuaries as part of our on-going study of sources, distribution and transport of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in estuarine and coastal waters. Distinct differences in both C-14 and C-13 values were found among the bulk HMW-DOM samples as well as the individual compound classes. Radiocarbon ages of the major compound classes varied by as much as 27,000 years in a single sample. The calculated average radiocarbon ages of the compound fractions of HMW-DOM indicate that the total lipid fraction is very "old", while the acid-insoluble fraction is slightly younger. Total amino acid and carbohydrate fractions, however, have relatively modern apparent C-14 ages. The significant variability in C-14 ages among the compound classes indicates not only multiple organic carbon sources but also different formation and turnover pathways controlling the cycling of different biochemical components of HMW-DOM in estuarine and coastal waters. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The distributions of heterotrophic bacterial abundance and production were investigated in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea during the autumn of 2000 and spring of 2001. Bacterial abundance varied in the range 3.2-15.7 (averaging 5.7) x 10(5) and 2.3-13.6 (averaging 6.2) x 10(5) cells cm(-3) in the spring and autumn, respectively. During autumn, bacterial production (BP) (0.27-7.77 mg C m(-3) day(-1)) was on average 3 fold that in spring (0.001-2.04 mg C m(-3) day(-1)). Bacterial average turnover rate (ratio of bacterial production:bacterial biomass, mu=0.21 day(-1)) in autumn was 3 times as high as in spring (0.07 day(-1)). The ratio of integrated bacterial biomass to integrated phytoplankton biomass in the euphotic zone ranged from 4 to 101% (averaging 35%) in spring and 24 to 556% (averaging 121%) in autumn. The results indicate that the distributions of heterotrophic bacteria were controlled generally by temperature in spring and additionally by substrate supply in autumn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Precipitation is considered to be the primary resource limiting terrestrial biological activity in water-limited regions. Its overriding effect on the production of grassland is complex. In this paper, field data of 48 sites (including temperate meadow steppe,temperate steppe, temperate desert steppe and alpine meadow) were gathered from 31 published papers and monographs to analyze the relationship between above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation by the method of regression analysis. The results indicated that there was a great difference between spatial pattern and temporal pattern by which precipitation influenced grassland ANPP. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) was the main factor determining spatial distribution of grassland ANPP (r~2 = 0.61,P < 0.01); while temporally, no significant relationship was found between the variance of AN PP and inter-annual precipitation for the four types of grassland. However, after dividing annual precipitation into monthly value and taking time lag effect into account, the study found significant relationships between ANPP and precipitation. For the temperate meadow steppe, the key variable determining inter-annual change of ANPP was last August-May precipitation (r~2= 0.47, P = 0.01); for the temperate steppe, the key variable was July precipitation (r~2 = 0.36, P = 0.02); for the temperate desert steppe, the key variable was April-June precipitation (r~2 = 0.51, P <0.01); for the alpine meadow, the key variable was last September-May precipitation (r~2 = 0.29, P < 0.05). In comparison with analogous research, the study demonstrated that the key factor determining inter-annual changes of grassland ANPP was the cumulative precipitation in certain periods of that year or the previous year.

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The Tianshan Mountains is located about 1000-2000 km north of the India-Asia suture and is the most outstanding topography in central Asia, with transmeridional length of nearly 2500 km, north-southern wideness of ~ 300-500 km, peaks exceeding 7000 m above sea level (asl.), and average altitude of over 4000 m asl. Much of the modern relief of the Tianshan Range is a result of contraction driven by the collision of the India subcontinent with the southern margin of Asia, which began in early Tertiary and continues today. Understanding where, when and how the deformation of the Tianshan Mountains occurred is essential to decipher the mechanism of intracontinental tectonics, the process of foreland basin evolution and mountain building, and the history of climate change in central Asia. In order to better constrain the Cenozoic building history of the Tianshan Mountains and the climate change in the southern margin of the Junggar Basin, we carried out multiple studies of magnetostratigraphy, sedimentology, and stable isotopes of paleosol carbonate at the Jingou River section, which is located at the Huoerguosi anticline, the westernest one of the second folds and thrust faults zone in the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains. The Jingou River section with a thickness of about 4160 m is continuous in deposits according to the observed gradual change in sedimentary environments and can be divided into five formations: Anjihaihe, Shawan, Taxihe, Dushanzi and Xiyu in upward sequence. Characteristic remamences were isolated by progressive thermal demagnetization, generally between 300 and 680℃. A total of 1133 out of 1607 samples yielded well-defined ChRMs and were used to establish the magnetostratigraphic column of a 3270-m-thick section from the exposed base of the Anjihaihe Formation to the middle of the Xiyu Formation. Two vertebrate fossil sites and a good correlation with the CK95 geomagnetic polarity time scale suggest that the section was deposited from ~30.5 to ~4.6 Ma and the age of the top of the Xiyu formation is ~2.6 Ma based on an extrapolation of the sedimentation rates. A plot of magnetostratigraphic age vs. height at the Jingou River section shows that significant increases in sedimentation rates as well as notable changes in depositional environments occurred at ~26-22.5 Ma, ~13-11 Ma and ~7 Ma, which represent the initial uplift of the Tianshan Mountains and two subsequent rapid uplift events. In addition, changes in sedimentation rates display characteristic alternations between increases and decreases, which probably indicate that the uplift of the Tianshan Mountains was episodic. We discussed the history of C4 biomass and climatic conditions in the southern margin of the Junggur Basin using the stable carbon and oxygen isotope composition of paleosol carbonates from the Jingou River section during ~17.5-6.5 Ma. The δ13C values indicate that the proportion of C4 biomass was uniform and moderate (15-20 %) during the interval of ~17.5-6.5 Ma. We proposed three hypotheses for this pattern of C4 biomass: (1) counteraction of two opposed factors (global cooling since ~15 Ma and thereafter increased dry and seasonality in central Asia) controlling the growth of C4 grasses, (2) variability in abundance of C3 grasses relative to C3 trees and shrubs if vegetation had ever changed in ecosystems, and (3) the higher latitude of the studied region. The δ18O values show a stepwise negative trend since ~13 Ma which may be attributed to three factors: (1) the temperature decreasing gradually after the middle Miocene (~15 Ma), (2) the increasing contribution of the moistures carried by the polar air masses from the Arctic Ocean to precipitation, and (3) the gradual retreat westward and disappearance of the Paratethys Ocean. Among them, which one played a more important role will need further study of the paleoclimate in central Asia.

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Rothwell, W., 'Synonymity and Semantic Variability in Medieval French and Middle English', Modern Language Review (2007) 102(2) pp.363-380 RAE2008

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Jednym z wyników prognoz wykonywanych z zastosowaniem globalnych i regionalnych modeli klimatycznych jest odkrycie wysokiego prawdopodobieństwa wzrostu częstości oraz natężenia ekstremalnych opadów. Poznanie prawidłowości ich powtarzalności i zasięgu przestrzennego ma oczywiście bardzo duże znaczenie gospodarcze i społeczne. Dlatego, niezależnie od wprowadzania nowych technik pomiarowych należy dokonywać analizy i reinterpretacji archiwalnych danych, korzystając z możliwości stwarzanych przez rozwój GIS. Głównym celem opracowania jest analiza prawidłowości przestrzennej i czasowej zmienności miesięcznych oraz rocznych maksymalnych dobowych sum opadów (MSDO) z lat 1956-1980, z obszaru Polski. W pracy wykorzystano nowe w geografii polskiej metody geostatystyczne. Do publikacji dołączono dysk DVD ze źródłową bazą danych i najważniejszymi wynikami w postaci numerycznej i kartograficznej.