The use of ALOS/PALSAR data for estimating sugarcane productivity

Some models have been developed using agrometeorological and remote sensing data to estimate agriculture production. However, it is expected that the use of SAR images can improve their performance. The main objective of this study was to estimate the sugarcane production using a multiple linear regression model which considers agronomic data and ALOS/PALSAR images obtained from 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons. The performance of models was evaluated by coefficient of determination, t-test, Willmott agreement index (d), random error and standard error. The model was able to explain 79%, 12% and 74% of the variation in the observed productions of the 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons, respectively. Performance of the model for the 2008/09 cropping season was poor because of the occurrence of a long period of drought in that season. When the three seasons were considered all together, the model explained 66% of the variation. Results showed that SAR-based yield prediction models can contribute and assist sugar mill technicians to improve such estimates.

Predictors of "occult" intra-abdominal injuries in blunt trauma patients

Objective: to assess predictors of intra-abdominal injuries in blunt trauma patients admitted without abdominal pain or abnormalities on the abdomen physical examination. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of trauma registry data, including adult blunt trauma patients admitted from 2008 to 2010 who sustained no abdominal pain or abnormalities on physical examination of the abdomen at admission and were submitted to computed tomography of the abdomen and/or exploratory laparotomy. Patients were assigned into: Group 1 (with intra-abdominal injuries) or Group 2 (without intra-abdominal injuries). Variables were compared between groups to identify those significantly associated with the presence of intra-abdominal injuries, adopting p<0.05 as significant. Subsequently, the variables with p<0.20 on bivariate analysis were selected to create a logistic regression model using the forward stepwise method. Results: A total of 268 cases met the inclusion criteria. Patients in Group I were characterized as having significantly (p<0.05) lower mean AIS score for the head segment (1.0±1.4 vs. 1.8±1.9), as well as higher mean AIS thorax score (1.6±1.7 vs. 0.9±1.5) and ISS (25.7±14.5 vs. 17,1±13,1). The rate of abdominal injuries was significantly higher in run-over pedestrians (37.3%) and in motorcyclists (36.0%) (p<0.001). The resultant logistic regression model provided 73.5% accuracy for identifying abdominal injuries. The variables included were: motorcyclist accident as trauma mechanism (p<0.001 - OR 5.51; 95%CI 2.40-12.64), presence of rib fractures (p<0.003 - OR 3.00; 95%CI 1.47-6.14), run-over pedestrian as trauma mechanism (p=0.008 - OR 2.85; 95%CI 1.13-6.22) and abnormal neurological physical exam at admission (p=0.015 - OR 0.44; 95%CI 0.22-0.85). Conclusion Intra-abdominal injuries were predominantly associated with trauma mechanism and presence of chest injuries.

A seroepidemiological survey of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in sheep from North of Portugal

The aim of this study was evaluate the risk factors for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) seroprevalence in sheep in the North of Portugal. The effects on seroprevalence of several variables such as individual characteristics, management practices, farm characteristics, animal health, and available veterinary services were evaluated. This information was then used in a multivariable logistic regression model in order to identify risk factors for Map seropositivity. Univariable analysis was used to screen the variables used in the logistic regression model. Variables that showed p values of <0.15 were retained for the multivariable analysis. Fifteen variables were associated with paratuberculosis in univariable analysis. The multivariable logistic regression model identified a number of variables as risk factors for seropositivity like sheep pure local and/or a cross of a local breed (OR=2.02), herd size with 31-60 head (OR=2.14), culling during the Spring-Summer season (OR=1.69) and the use of an anti-parasitic treatment such as Ivermectin as the only anti-parasitic medication (OR=5.60). Potential risk factors identified in this study support current recommendations for the control of paratuberculosis.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Chlamydophila abortus infection in dairy goats in the Northeast of Brazil

Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraíba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats > 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.

Modelling of potentiometric ion sensors

Potentiometric ion sensors are a very important subgroup of electrochemical sensors, very attractive for practical applications due to their small size, portability, low-energy consumption, relatively low cost and not changing the sample composition. They are investigated by the researchers from many fields of science. The continuous development of this field creates the necessity for a detailed description of sensor response and the electrochemical processes important in the practical applications of ion sensors. The aim of this thesis is to present the existing models available for the description of potentiometric ion sensors as well as their applicability and limitations. This includes the description of the diffusion potential occurring at the reference electrodes. The wide range of existing models, from most idealised phase boundary models to most general models, including migration, is discussed. This work concentrates on the advanced modelling of ion sensors, namely the Nernst-Planck-Poisson (NPP) model, which is the most general of the presented models, therefore the most widely applicable. It allows the modelling of the transport processes occurring in ion sensors and generating the potentiometric response. Details of the solution of the NPP model (including the numerical methods used) are shown. The comparisons between NPP and the more idealized models are presented. The applicability of the model to describe the formation of diffusion potential in reference electrode, the lower detection limit of both ion-exchanger and neutral carrier electrodes and the effect of the complexation in the membrane are discussed. The model was applied for the description of both types of electrodes, i.e. with the inner filling solution and solidcontact electrodes. The NPP model allows the electrochemical methods other than potentiometry to be described. Application of this model in Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy is discussed and a possible use in chrono-potentiometry is indicated. By combining the NPP model with evolutionary algorithms, namely Hierarchical Genetic Strategy (HGS), a novel method allowing the facilitation of the design of ion sensors was created. It is described in detail in this thesis and its possible applications in the field of ion sensors are indicated. Finally, some interesting effects occurring in the ion sensors (i.e. overshot response and influence of anionic sites) as well as the possible applications of NPP in biochemistry are described.

Wheat Yield Loss in a Two Species Competition with Emex australis and Emex spinosa

Emex australis and E. spinosa are significant weed species in wheat and other crops. Information on the extent of competition of the Emex species will be helpful to access yield losses in wheat. Field experiments were conducted to quantify the interference of tested weed densities each as single or mixture of both at 1:1 on their growth and yield, wheat yield components and wheat grain yield losses in two consecutive years. Dry weight of both weed species increased from 3-6 g m-2 with every additional plant of weed, whereas seed number and weight per plant decreased with increasing density of either weed. Both weed species caused considerable decrease in yield components like spike bearing tillers, number of grains per spike, 1000-grain weight of wheat with increasing density population of the weeds. Based on non-linear hyperbolic regression model equation, maximum yield loss at asymptotic weed density was estimated to be 44 and 62% with E. australis, 56 and 70% with E. spinosa and 63 and 72% with mixture of both species at 1:1 during both year of study, respectively. It was concluded that E. spinosa has more competition effects on wheat crop as compared to E. australis.

Dialysis, time and death: comparisons of two consecutive decades among patients treated at the same Brazilian dialysis center

The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced not only by well-known risk factors like age and comorbidity, but also by changes in dialysis technology and practices accumulated along time. We compared the survival curves, dialysis routines and some risk factors of two groups of patients admitted to a Brazilian maintenance hemodialysis program during two consecutive decades: March 1977 to December 1986 (group 1, N = 162) and January 1987 to June 1997 (group 2, N = 237). The median treatment time was 22 months (range 1-198). Survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank method. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to investigate the more important variables associated with outcome. The most important changes in dialysis routine and in patient care during the total period of observation were the progressive increase in the dose of dialysis delivered, the prohibition of potassium-free dialysate, the use of bicarbonate as a buffer and the upgrading of the dialysis equipment. There were no significant differences between the survival curves of the two groups. Survival rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 84, 53 and 29%, respectively, for group 1 and 77, 42 and 21% for group 2. Patients in group 1 were younger (45.5 ± 15.2 vs 55.2 ± 15.9 years, P<0.001) and had a lower prevalence of diabetes (11.1 vs 27.4%, P<0.001) and of cardiovascular disease (9.3 vs 20.7%, P<0.001). According to the Cox multivariate model, only age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.05, P<0.001) and diabetes (HR 2.55, CI 1.82-3.58, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mortality for the whole group. Patients of group 2 had a lower prevalence of sudden death (19.1 vs 9.7%, P<0.001). After adjusting for age, diabetes and other mortality risk factors, the risk of death was 17% lower in group 2, although this difference was not statistically significant. We conclude that the negative effects of advanced age and of higher frequency of comorbidity on the survival of group 2 patients were probably offset by improvements in patient care and in the quality and dose of dialysis delivered, so that the survival curves did not undergo significant changes along time.

Relationship between microalbuminuria and cardiac structural changes in mild hypertensive patients

The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between urinary albumin excretion (UAE), cardiac structural changes upon echocardiography and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure (ABPM) levels. Twenty mild hypertensive patients (mean age 56.8 ± 9.6 years) were evaluated. After 2 weeks of a washout period of all antihypertensive drugs, all patients underwent an echocardiographic evaluation, a 24-h ABPM and an overnight urine collection. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure during 24-h ABPM was 145 ± 14/91 ± 10 mmHg (daytime) and 130 ± 14/76 ± 8 mmHg (nighttime), respectively. Seven (35%) patients presented UAE > or = 15 µg/min, and for the whole group, the geometric mean value for UAE was 10.2 x/÷ 3.86 µg/min. Cardiac measurements showed mean values of interventricular septum thickness (IVS) of 11 ± 2.3 mm, left ventricular posterior wall thickness (PWT) of 10 ± 2.0 mm, left ventricular mass (LVM) of 165 ± 52 g, and left ventricular mass index (LVMI) of 99 ± 31 g/m². A forward stepwise regression model indicated that blood pressure levels did not influence UAE. Significant correlations were observed between UAE and cardiac structural parameters such as IVS (r = 0.71, P<0.001), PWT (r = 0.64, P<0.005), LVM (r = 0.65, P<0.005) and LVMI (r = 0.57, P<0.01). Compared with normoalbuminuric patients, those who had microalbuminuria presented higher values of all cardiac parameters measured. The predictive positive and negative values of UAE > or = 15 µg/min for the presence of geometric cardiac abnormalities were 75 and 91.6%. These data indicate that microalbuminuria in essential hypertension represents an early marker of cardiac structural damage.

Predicting bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies from historical financial statements

This master’s thesis studies the probability of bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies as a part of credit risk assessment. The main idea of this thesis is to build and test bankruptcy prediction models for Finnish limited liability companies that can be utilized in credit decision making. The data used in this thesis consists of historical financial statements from 2112 Finnish limited liability companies, half of which have filed for bankruptcy. A total of four models are developed, two with logistic regression and two with multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA). The time horizon of the models varies from 1 to 2 years prior to the bankruptcy, and 14 different financial variables are used in the model formation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models ranges between 81.7% and 88.9%, and the best prediction accuracy is achieved with the one year prior the bankruptcy logistic regression model. However the difference between the best logistic model and the best MDA model is minimal. Overall based on the results of this thesis it can be concluded that predicting bankruptcy is possible to some extent, but naturally the results are not perfect.

Patient and physician evaluation of the severity of acute asthma exacerbations

We studied the ability of patients not experienced in the use of peak expiratory flow meters to assess the severity of their asthma exacerbations and compared it to the assessment of experienced clinicians. We also evaluated which data of physical examination and medical history are used by physicians to subjectively evaluate the severity of asthma attacks. Fifty-seven adult patients (15 men and 42 women, with a mean (± SD) age of 37.3 ± 14.5 years and 24.0 ± 17.9 years of asthma symptoms) with asthma exacerbations were evaluated in a University Hospital Emergency Department. Patients and physicians independently evaluated the severity of the asthma attack using a linear scale. Patient score, physician score and forced expiratory volume at the first second (FEV1) were correlated with history and physical examination variables, and were also considered as dependent variables in multiple linear regression models. FEV1 correlated significantly with the physician score (rho = 0.42, P = 0.001), but not with patient score (rho = 0.03; P = 0.77). Use of neck accessory muscles, expiratory time and wheezing intensity were the explanatory variables in the FEV1 regression model and were also present in the physician score model. We conclude that physicians evaluate asthma exacerbation severity better than patients and that physician's scoring of asthma severity correlated significantly with objective measures of airway obstruction (FEV1). Some variables (the use of neck accessory muscles, expiratory time and wheezing intensity) persisted as explanatory variables in physician score and FEV1 regression models, and should be emphasized in medical schools and emergency settings.

Effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions

In order to assess the effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory morbidity, we carried out a time series study using daily levels of PM10, SO2, NO2, ozone, and CO and daily numbers of pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions at the Children's Institute of the University of São Paulo Medical School, from August 1996 to August 1997. In this period there were 43,635 hospital emergency room visits, 4534 of which were due to lower respiratory tract disease. The total number of hospital admissions was 6785, 1021 of which were due to lower respiratory tract infectious and/or obstructive diseases. The three health end-points under investigation were the daily number of emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases, hospital admissions due to pneumonia, and hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were fitted, controlling for smooth functions of time, temperature and humidity, and an indicator of weekdays. NO2 was positively associated with all outcomes. Interquartile range increases (65.04 µg/m³) in NO2 moving averages were associated with an 18.4% increase (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 12.5-24.3) in emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases (4-day moving average), a 17.6% increase (95% CI = 3.3-32.7) in hospital admissions due to pneumonia or bronchopneumonia (3-day moving average), and a 31.4% increase (95% CI = 7.2-55.7) in hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis (2-day moving average). The study showed that air pollution considerably affects children's respiratory morbidity, deserving attention from the health authorities.

Noninvasive prognostic markers for cardiac death and ventricular arrhythmia in long-term follow-up of subjects with chronic Chagas' disease

The objective of the present study was to investigate clinical, echocardiographic and electrocardiographic (12-lead resting ECG, 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring and signal-averaged ECG (SAECG)) parameters in subjects with chronic Chagas' disease in a long-term follow-up as prognostic markers for adverse outcomes. Fifty adult outpatients (34 to 74 years old, 31 females) staged according to Los Andes class I, II or III and complaining of palpitation were enrolled in a longitudinal study. SAECG was analyzed in time and frequency domains and the endpoint was a composite of cardiac death and ventricular tachycardia. During a follow-up of 84.2 ± 39.0 months, 34.0% of the patients developed adverse outcomes (9 cardiac deaths and 11 episodes of ventricular tachycardia). After optimal dichotomization, in a stepwise multivariate Cox-hazard regression model, apical aneurysm (HR = 3.7; 95% CI = 1.2-1.3; P = 0.02), left ventricular ejection fraction <62% (HR = 4.60; 95% CI = 1.39-15.24; P = 0.01) and incidence of ventricular premature contractions >614 per 24 h (hazard ratio = 6.1; 95% CI = 1.7-22.6; P = 0.006) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint. Although a high frequency content in SAECG demonstrated association with the presence of left ventricular dysfunction and myocardial fibrosis, its predictive value for the composite endpoint was not significant. Apical aneurysms, reduced left ventricular function and a high incidence of ventricular ectopic beats over a 24-h period have a strong predictive value for a composite endpoint of cardiac death and ventricular tachycardia in subjects with chronic Chagas' disease.

Multiple factor analysis of metachronous upper urinary tract transitional cell carcinoma after radical cystectomy

Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urothelium is often multifocal and subsequent tumors may occur anywhere in the urinary tract after the treatment of a primary carcinoma. Patients initially presenting a bladder cancer are at significant risk of developing metachronous tumors in the upper urinary tract (UUT). We evaluated the prognostic factors of primary invasive bladder cancer that may predict a metachronous UUT TCC after radical cystectomy. The records of 476 patients who underwent radical cystectomy for primary invasive bladder TCC from 1989 to 2001 were reviewed retrospectively. The prognostic factors of UUT TCC were determined by multivariate analysis using the COX proportional hazards regression model. Kaplan-Meier analysis was also used to assess the variable incidence of UUT TCC according to different risk factors. Twenty-two patients (4.6%). developed metachronous UUT TCC. Multiplicity, prostatic urethral involvement by the bladder cancer and the associated carcinoma in situ (CIS) were significant and independent factors affecting the occurrence of metachronous UUT TCC (P = 0.0425, 0.0082, and 0.0006, respectively). These results were supported, to some extent, by analysis of the UUT TCC disease-free rate by the Kaplan-Meier method, whereby patients with prostatic urethral involvement or with associated CIS demonstrated a significantly lower metachronous UUT TCC disease-free rate than patients without prostatic urethral involvement or without associated CIS (log-rank test, P = 0.0116 and 0.0075, respectively). Multiple tumors, prostatic urethral involvement and associated CIS were risk factors for metachronous UUT TCC, a conclusion that may be useful for designing follow-up strategies for primary invasive bladder cancer after radical cystectomy.

Inadequate utilization of prenatal care in two Brazilian birth cohorts

Data for two birth cohorts from two Brazilian municipalities, Ribeirão Preto in 1994 and São Luís in 1997/1998, were used to identify and compare factors associated with inadequate utilization of prenatal care and to identify factors capable of explaining the differences observed between the two cities. Prenatal care was defined as adequate or inadequate according to the recommendations of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The chi-square test and Poisson regression were used to compare differences in the inadequacy of prenatal care utilization. The percentage of inadequacy was higher in São Luís (34.6%) than in Ribeirão Preto (16.9%). Practically the same variables were associated with inadequacy in both cities. Puerperae with lower educational level, without a companion or cohabiting, who delivered in public health units, younger than 20 years, multiparae and smokers, with low family income presented higher percentages of inadequate prenatal care utilization. However, the effects of some variables differed between the two cities. The risk for inadequate use of prenatal care was higher for women attended in the public health sector in São Luís and for cohabiting women in Ribeirão Preto. The effect of the remaining factors studied did not differ between cities. The category of admission accounted for 57.0% of the difference in the inadequate use of prenatal care between cities and marital status accounted for 45.3% of the difference. Even after adjustment for all variables, part of the difference in the inadequacy of prenatal care utilization remained unexplained.