Sex ratio adjustment in relation to paternal attractiveness in a wild bird population.

When the relative fitness of sons and daughters differs, sex-allocation theory predicts that it would be adaptive for individuals to adjust their investment in different sexes of offspring. Sex ratio adjustment by females in response to the sexual attractiveness of their mate would be an example of this. In vertebrates the existence of this form of sex ratio adjustment is controversial and may be confounded with sex-biased mortality, particularly in sexually size-dimorphic species. Here we use PCR amplification of a conserved W-chromosome-linked gene to show that the sex ratio within broods of a natural population of sexually size-monomorphic collared flycatchers Ficedula albicollis is related to the size of their father's forehead patch, a heritable secondary sexual character implicated in female choice. Experimental manipulations of paternal investment, which influence the size of his character in future breeding attempts, result in corresponding changes in the sex ratio of offspring born to males in those breeding attempts. In contrast, manipulations of maternal investment have no effect on future sex ratios, and there is no relationship between variables predicting the reproductive value of the brood and nestling sex ratio. Analysis of recruitment of offspring reveals similar patterns of sex ratio bias. The results suggest that female collared flycatchers be able to adjust the sex ratio of eggs ovulated in response to the phenotype of their mate. This finding is most consistent with "genetic quality" models of sexual selection.

Paternal and maternal DNA lineages reveal a bottleneck in the founding of the Finnish population.

An analysis of Y-chromosomal haplotypes in several European populations reveals an almost monomorphic pattern in the Finns, whereas Y-chromosomal diversity is significantly higher in other populations. Furthermore, analyses of nucleotide positions in the mitochondrial control region that evolve slowly show a decrease in genetic diversity in Finns. Thus, relatively few men and women have contributed the genetic lineages that today survive in the Finnish population. This is likely to have caused the so-called "Finnish disease heritage"-i.e., the occurrence of several genetic diseases in the Finnish population that are rare elsewhere. A preliminary analysis of the mitochondrial mutations that have accumulated subsequent to the bottleneck suggests that it occurred about 4000 years ago, presumably when populations using agriculture and animal husbandry arrived in Finland.

Phenotypic variations among paternal centrosomes expressed within the zygote as disparate microtubule lengths and sperm aster organization: correlations between centrosome activity and developmental success.

This study describes a paternal effect on sperm aster size and microtubule organization during bovine fertilization. Immunocytochemistry using tubulin antibodies quantitated with confocal microscopy was used to measure the diameter of the sperm aster and assign a score (0-3) based on the degree of radial organization (0, least organized; 3, most organized). Three bulls (A-C) were chosen based on varying fertility (A, lowest fertility; C, highest fertility) as assessed by nonreturn to estrus after artificial insemination and in vitro embryonic development to the blastocyst stage. The results indicate a statistically significant bull-dependent difference in diameter of the sperm aster and in the organization of the sperm astral microtubules. Insemination from bull A resulted in an average sperm aster diameter of 101.4 microm (76.3% of oocyte diameter). This significantly differs (P < or = 0.0001) from the average sperm aster diameters produced after inseminations from bull B (78.2 microm; 60.8%) or bull C (77.9 microm; 57.8%), which themselves displayed no significant differences. The degree of radial organization of the sperm aster was also bull-dependent. Sperm asters organized by bull A-derived sperm had an average quality score of 1.8, which was higher than that of bull B (1.4; P < or = 0.0005) or bull C (1.2; P < or = 0.0001). Results with bulls B and C were also significantly different (P < or = 0.025). These results indicate that the paternally derived portion of the centrosome varies among males and that this variation affects male fertility, the outcome of early development, and, therefore, reproductive success.

Elimination of paternal mitochondrial DNA in intraspecific crosses during early mouse embryogenesis.

To examine whether mtDNA is uni- or biparentally transmitted in mice, we developed an assay that can detect sperm mtDNA in a single mouse embryo. In intraspecific hybrids of Mus musculus, paternal mtDNA was detected only through the early pronucleus stage, and its disappearance co-incided with loss of membrane potential in sperm-derived mitochondria. By contrast, in interspecific hybrids between M. musculus and Mus spretus, paternal mtDNA was detected throughout development from pronucleus stage to neonates. We propose that oocyte cytoplasm has a species-specific mechanism that recognizes and eliminates sperm mitochondria and mtDNA. This mechanism must recognize nuclearly encoded proteins in the sperm midpiece, and not the mtDNA or the proteins it encodes, because sperm mitochondria from the congenic strain B6.mtspr, which carries M. spretus mtDNA on background of M. musculus (B6) nuclear genes, were eliminated early by B6 oocytes as in intraspecific crosses. We conclude that cytoplasmic genomes are transmitted uniparentally in intraspecific crosses in mammals as in Chlamydomonas and that leakage of parental mtDNA is limited to interspecific crosses, which rarely occur in nature.

Governance and Uncertainty

Government actors create law against a backdrop of uncertainty. Limited information, unpredictable events, and lack of understanding interfere with accurately predicting a legal regime’s costs, benefits, and effects on other legal and social programs and institutions. Does the availability of no-fault divorce increase the number of terminated marriages? Will bulk-collection of telecommunications information about American citizens reveal terrorist plots? Can a sensitive species breed in the presence of oil and gas wells? The answers to these questions are far from clear, but lawmakers must act nonetheless. The problems posed by uncertainty cut across legal fields. Scholars and regulators in a variety of contexts recognize the importance of uncertainty, but no systematic, generally-applicable framework exists for determining how law should account for gaps in information. This Article suggests such a framework and develops a novel typology of strategies for accounting for uncertainty in governance. This typology includes “static law,” as well as three varieties of “dynamic law.” “Static law” is a legal rule initially intended to last in perpetuity. “Dynamic law” is intended to change, and includes: (1) durational regulation, or fixed legal rules with periodic opportunities for amendment or repeal; (2) adaptive regulation, or malleable legal rules with procedural mechanisms allowing rules to change; and (3) contingent regulation, or malleable legal rules with triggering mechanisms to substantively change to the rules. Each of these strategies, alone or in combination, may best address the uncertainty inherent in a particular lawmaking effort. This Article provides a diagnostic framework that lawmakers can use to identify optimal strategies. Ultimately, this approach to uncertainty yields immediate practical benefits by enabling lawmakers to better structure governance.

Robust linear semi-infinite programming duality under uncertainty

In this paper, we propose a duality theory for semi-infinite linear programming problems under uncertainty in the constraint functions, the objective function, or both, within the framework of robust optimization. We present robust duality by establishing strong duality between the robust counterpart of an uncertain semi-infinite linear program and the optimistic counterpart of its uncertain Lagrangian dual. We show that robust duality holds whenever a robust moment cone is closed and convex. We then establish that the closed-convex robust moment cone condition in the case of constraint-wise uncertainty is in fact necessary and sufficient for robust duality. In other words, the robust moment cone is closed and convex if and only if robust duality holds for every linear objective function of the program. In the case of uncertain problems with affinely parameterized data uncertainty, we establish that robust duality is easily satisfied under a Slater type constraint qualification. Consequently, we derive robust forms of the Farkas lemma for systems of uncertain semi-infinite linear inequalities.

Multi-objective optimization of environmentally conscious chemical supply chains under demand uncertainty

In this work, we analyze the effect of demand uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear program (MILP) with the unique feature of incorporating explicitly the demand uncertainty using scenarios with given probability of occurrence. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Robust Solutions of MultiObjective Linear Semi-Infinite Programs under Constraint Data Uncertainty

The multiobjective optimization model studied in this paper deals with simultaneous minimization of finitely many linear functions subject to an arbitrary number of uncertain linear constraints. We first provide a radius of robust feasibility guaranteeing the feasibility of the robust counterpart under affine data parametrization. We then establish dual characterizations of robust solutions of our model that are immunized against data uncertainty by way of characterizing corresponding solutions of robust counterpart of the model. Consequently, we present robust duality theorems relating the value of the robust model with the corresponding value of its dual problem.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

[Student essay on life's uncertainty] (fragment), undated

Folio-sized leaf containing a handwritten essay on life's uncertainty with an epitaph from English philosopher and scientist Francis Bacon (1561-1626): "He that to vain mortality does trust, / But limns the water, or but writes in dust." The remaining pages of the essay are missing.

Ending uncertainty: recapitalisation under European Central Bank supervision. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/18, 17 December 2013

Estimates of the recapitalisation needs of the euro-area banking system vary between €50 and €600 billion. The range shows the considerable uncertainty about the quality of banks’ balance sheets and about the parameters of the forthcoming European Central Bank stress tests, including the treatment of sovereign debt and systemic risk. Uncertainty also prevails about the rules and discretion that will applyto bank recapitalisation, bank restructuring and bank resolution in 2014 and beyond. The ECB should communicate the relevant parameters of its exercise early and in detail to give time to the private sector to find solutions. The ECB should establish itself as a tough supervisor and force non-viable banks into restructuring. This could lead to short-term financial volatility, but it should be weighed against the cost of a durably weak banking system and the credibility risk to the ECB. The ECB may need to provide large amounts of liquidity to the financial system. Governments should support the ECB, accept cross-border bank mergers and substantial creditor involvement under clear bail-in rules and should be prepared to recapitalise banks. Governments should agree on the eventual creation of a single resolution mechanism with efficient and fast decision-making procedures, and which can exercise discretion where necessary. A resolution fund, even when fully built-up, needs to have a common fiscal backstop to be credible.

Renewables: The great uncertainty of the EU energy strategy. Egmont Paper No. 71, November 2014

Summary. For more than two decades, the development of renewable energy sources (RES) has been an important aim of EU energy policy. It accelerated with the adoption of a 1997 White Paper and the setting a decade later of a 20% renewable energy target, to be reached by 2020. The EU counts on renewable energy for multiple purposes: to diversify its energy supply; to increase its security of supply; and to create new industries, jobs, economic growth and export opportunities, while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Many expectations rest on its development. Fossil fuels have been critical to the development of industrial nations, including EU Member States, which are now deeply reliant upon coal, oil and gas for nearly every aspect of their existence. Faced with some hard truths, however, the Member States have begun to shelve fossil fuel. These hard truths are as follows: firstly, fossil fuels are a finite resource, sometimes difficult to extract. This means that, at some point, fossil fuels are going to be more difficult to access in Europe or too expensive to use.1 The problem is that you cannot just stop using fossil fuels when they become too expensive; the existing infrastructure is profoundly reliant on fossil fuels. It is thus almost normal that a fierce resistance to change exists. Secondly, fossil fuels contribute to climate change. They emit GHG, which contribute greatly to climate change. As a consequence, their use needs to be drastically reduced. Thirdly, Member States are currently suffering a decline in their own fossil fuel production. This increases their dependence on increasingly costly fossil fuel imports from increasingly unstable countries. This problem is compounded by global developments: the growing share of emerging economies in global energy demand (in particular China and India but also the Middle East) and the development of unconventional oil and gas production in the United States. All these elements endanger the competitiveness of Member States’ economies and their security of supply. Therefore, new indigenous sources of energy and a diversification of energy suppliers and routes to convey energy need to be found. To solve all these challenges, in 2008 the EU put in place a strategy based on three objectives: sustainability (reduction of GHG), competitiveness and security of supply. The adoption of a renewable energy policy was considered essential for reaching these three strategic objectives. The adoption of the 20% renewable energy target has undeniably had a positive effect in the EU on the growth in renewables, with the result that renewable energy sources are steadily increasing their presence in the EU energy mix. They are now, it can be said, an integral part of the EU energy system. However, the necessity of reaching this 20% renewable energy target in 2020, combined with other circumstances, has also engendered in many Member States a certain number of difficulties, creating uncertainties for investors and postponing benefits for consumers. The electricity sector is the clearest example of this downside. Subsidies have become extremely abundant and vary from one Member State to another, compromising both fair competition and single market. Networks encountered many difficulties to develop and adapt. With technological progress these subsidies have also become quite excessive. The growing impact of renewable electricity fluctuations has made some traditional power plants unprofitable and created disincentives for new investments. The EU does clearly need to reassess its strategy. If it repeats the 2008 measures it will risk to provoke increased instability and costs.

Balancing realism and vision - The prospects of EU-Israel relations in times of change and uncertainty. European Policy Brief, 28 May 2015

In this joint EPC-FSD Policy Brief, Andrea Frontini and Eran Etzion assess the state of play and the future prospects of EU-Israel relations in the light of recent domestic and regional political developments. They argue that, despite frequent cacophony and recurring stalemates, the EU-Israel partnership still has the potential to pursue shared strategic objectives. The two sides have to realign their relations, taking into account new realities and common challenges in the Middle East and Northern Africa region, and the current state of the Middle East Peace Process. More careful differentiation and stronger prioritisation of the policy dossiers at stake are urgently needed. An autonomous but joined up review of the overall relationship, guided by courage, pragmatism and stronger strategic direction, is crucial in order to move ahead.