Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Statistics as a basis for discrimination in the insurance business

The European Court of Justice has held that as from 21 December 2012 insurers may no longer charge men and women differently on the basis of scientific evidence that is statistically linked to their sex, effectively prohibiting the use of sex as a factor in the calculation of premiums and benefits for the purposes of insurance and related financial services throughout the European Union. This ruling marks a sharp turn away from the traditional view that insurers should be allowed to apply just about any risk assessment criterion, so long as it is sustained by the findings of actuarial science. The naïveté behind the assumption that insurers’ recourse to statistical data and probabilistic analysis, given their scientific nature, would suffice to keep them out of harm’s way was exposed. In this article I look at the flaws of this assumption and question whether this judicial decision, whilst constituting a most welcome landmark in the pursuit of equality between men and women, has nonetheless gone too far by saying too little on the million dollar question of what separates admissible criteria of differentiation from inadmissible forms of discrimination.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Machine ethics via logic programming

Machine ethics is an interdisciplinary field of inquiry that emerges from the need of imbuing autonomous agents with the capacity of moral decision-making. While some approaches provide implementations in Logic Programming (LP) systems, they have not exploited LP-based reasoning features that appear essential for moral reasoning. This PhD thesis aims at investigating further the appropriateness of LP, notably a combination of LP-based reasoning features, including techniques available in LP systems, to machine ethics. Moral facets, as studied in moral philosophy and psychology, that are amenable to computational modeling are identified, and mapped to appropriate LP concepts for representing and reasoning about them. The main contributions of the thesis are twofold. First, novel approaches are proposed for employing tabling in contextual abduction and updating – individually and combined – plus a LP approach of counterfactual reasoning; the latter being implemented on top of the aforementioned combined abduction and updating technique with tabling. They are all important to model various issues of the aforementioned moral facets. Second, a variety of LP-based reasoning features are applied to model the identified moral facets, through moral examples taken off-the-shelf from the morality literature. These applications include: (1) Modeling moral permissibility according to the Doctrines of Double Effect (DDE) and Triple Effect (DTE), demonstrating deontological and utilitarian judgments via integrity constraints (in abduction) and preferences over abductive scenarios; (2) Modeling moral reasoning under uncertainty of actions, via abduction and probabilistic LP; (3) Modeling moral updating (that allows other – possibly overriding – moral rules to be adopted by an agent, on top of those it currently follows) via the integration of tabling in contextual abduction and updating; and (4) Modeling moral permissibility and its justification via counterfactuals, where counterfactuals are used for formulating DDE.

Vulnerabilidade em pessoas idosas residentes na comunidade : estudo exploratório em utentes da Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa

RESUMO: Objectivo: O presente estudo tem como principal objectivo a caracterização da vulnerabilidade individual em pessoas idosas residentes na comunidade. Metodologia: Trata-se de um estudo não experimental, exploratório, quantitativo, e transversal numa amostra probabilística de aleatorização simples (n=213). A vulnerabilidade individual foi avaliada com recurso ao instrumento Vulnerable Elders Survey 13 e as restantes variáveis sócio-demográficas por questionário, ambas por via telefónica. Resultados: A amostra era predominantemente feminina, com uma maior prevalência das pessoas com 75 ou mais anos, viúvas, sem escolaridade, maioritariamente a viverem sós e mais de com um rendimento mensal igual ou inferior a 485€. Relativamente à vulnerabilidade, numa amostra aleatorizada de 213 pessoas, apenas 15 não apresentavam vulnerabilidade, avaliada pelo Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13). Das 198 pessoas vulneráveis, correspondendo a 93% da amostra, 164, ou seja, 77% deste grupo, tinham uma pontuação total igual ou superior a 7 em 10, revelando um grau elevado de vulnerabilidade. Conclusão: As variáveis preditoras da vulnerabilidade são a idade, quanto maior a idade maior a vulnerabilidade, e o ser-se viúvo. As variáveis preditoras da dificuldade na realização das actividades físicas (AF) são a idade e pessoa isolada em alojamento colectivo. Para as actividades de vida diária (AVD), as variáveis que demostram ser preditoras são a idade, pessoa isolada em alojamento colectivo e residir em agregado familiar de casal de idosos.----------------------- ABSTRACT:Objective: The present study has as its principal objective the characterization of individual vulnerability in community-dwelling older people. Methodology: This is a non-experimental study, exploratory, qualitative, quantitative, and cross-sectional in a probabilistic sample of simple randomization (n=213). Individual vulnerability was assessed using the instrument Vulnerable Elders Survey 13 and the other socio-demographic variables by questionnaire, both by telephone. Results: the sample was predominantly female, with a higher prevalence of persons with 75 or more years, widows, without education, mostly living alone and most of all with less than or equal to 485€ per month. Concerning vulnerability, in a random sample of 213 people, only 15 doesn´t present vulnerability, evaluated by the Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13). Of the 198 people vulnerable, accounting for 93% of the sample, 164, i.e. 77% of this group, had a total score equal to or greater than 7 in 10, revealing a high degree of vulnerability. Conclusion: The predictors of vulnerability are the age, where higher the age means greater vulnerability as well as being a widow. The predictors of the difficulty in physical activities are old age and isolated persons in collective accommodation. For the activities of daily life, the variables that demonstrate as being predictors are old age, isolated persons in collective accommodation and living in elderly couple.

Teste de um modelo preditor da integridade

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Contraexemplos e raciocínio dedutivo

Tese de Doutoramento apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvements on this forecasts’ accuracy and it is thus, by providing a more accurate model on its capsules’ sales, as well as recommending adequate implementations that positively contribute to the referred Planning Process, that value is brought to the Project

Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Exploração de séries temporais em processos de previsão de vendas

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas

Relation between oral health and socioeconomic variables among schoolchildren aged 12 in the City of Manaus - AM

Studies have shown that the age of 12 was determined as the age of global monitoring of caries for international comparisons and monitoring of disease trends. The aimed was to evaluate the prevalence of dental caries, fluorosis and periodontal condition and their relation with socioeconomic factors among schoolchildren aged twelve in the city of Manaus, AM. This study with a probabilistic sample of 661 children was conducted, 609 from public and 52 from private schools, in 2008. Dental caries, periodontal condition and dental fluorosis were evaluated. In order to obtain the socioeconomic classification of each child (high, upper middle, middle, lower middle, low and lower low socioeconomic classes), the guardians were given a questionnaire. The mean decayed teeth, missing teeth, and filled teeth (DMFT) found at age twelve was 1.89. It was observed that the presence of dental calculus was the most severe periodontal condition detected in 39.48%. In relation to dental fluorosis, there was a low prevalence in the children examined, i.e., the more pronounced lines of opacity only occasionally merge, forming small white areas. The study showed a significant association of 5% among social class with dental caries and periodontal condition. In schoolchildren of Manaus there are low mean of DMFT and fluorosis, but a high occurrence of gingival bleeding.

Método de desagregação temporal para a previsão da taxa de desemprego em Portugal

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Para uma pedagogia das literacias: das conceções e práticas docentes aos conceitos e competências discentes. Um estudo da aula de língua portuguesa no 2º ciclo do ensino básico

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação (Especialidade em Literacias e Ensino do Português)