Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

Sparse density estimation on the multinomial manifold

A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced based on the minimum integrated square error criterion for the finite mixture model. Since the constraint on the mixing coefficients of the finite mixture model is on the multinomial manifold, we use the well-known Riemannian trust-region (RTR) algorithm for solving this problem. The first- and second-order Riemannian geometry of the multinomial manifold are derived and utilized in the RTR algorithm. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with an accuracy competitive with those of existing kernel density estimators.

Análise e otimização de superfícies seletivas de Frequência utilizando redes neurais artificiais e algoritmos de otimização natural

The bidimensional periodic structures called frequency selective surfaces have been well investigated because of their filtering properties. Similar to the filters that work at the traditional radiofrequency band, such structures can behave as band-stop or pass-band filters, depending on the elements of the array (patch or aperture, respectively) and can be used for a variety of applications, such as: radomes, dichroic reflectors, waveguide filters, artificial magnetic conductors, microwave absorbers etc. To provide high-performance filtering properties at microwave bands, electromagnetic engineers have investigated various types of periodic structures: reconfigurable frequency selective screens, multilayered selective filters, as well as periodic arrays printed on anisotropic dielectric substrates and composed by fractal elements. In general, there is no closed form solution directly from a given desired frequency response to a corresponding device; thus, the analysis of its scattering characteristics requires the application of rigorous full-wave techniques. Besides that, due to the computational complexity of using a full-wave simulator to evaluate the frequency selective surface scattering variables, many electromagnetic engineers still use trial-and-error process until to achieve a given design criterion. As this procedure is very laborious and human dependent, optimization techniques are required to design practical periodic structures with desired filter specifications. Some authors have been employed neural networks and natural optimization algorithms, such as the genetic algorithms and the particle swarm optimization for the frequency selective surface design and optimization. This work has as objective the accomplishment of a rigorous study about the electromagnetic behavior of the periodic structures, enabling the design of efficient devices applied to microwave band. For this, artificial neural networks are used together with natural optimization techniques, allowing the accurate and efficient investigation of various types of frequency selective surfaces, in a simple and fast manner, becoming a powerful tool for the design and optimization of such structures

Uma arquitetura baseada em agentes para configuração dinâmica de aplicações inteligentes em ambiente foundation fieldbus

The industrial automation is directly linked to the development of information tecnology. Better hardware solutions, as well as improvements in software development methodologies make possible the rapid growth of the productive process control. In this thesis, we propose an architecture that will allow the joining of two technologies in hardware (industrial network) and software field (multiagent systems). The objective of this proposal is to join those technologies in a multiagent architecture to allow control strategies implementations in to field devices. With this, we intend develop an agents architecture to detect and solve problems which may occur in the industrial network environment. Our work ally machine learning with industrial context, become proposed multiagent architecture adaptable to unfamiliar or unexpected production environment. We used neural networks and presented an allocation strategies of these networks in industrial network field devices. With this we intend to improve decision support at plant level and allow operations human intervention independent

Regulador automático de tensão robusto utilizando técnicas de controle adaptativo

The stability of synchronous generators connected to power grid has been the object of study and research for years. The interest in this matter is justified by the fact that much of the electricity produced worldwide is obtained with the use of synchronous generators. In this respect, studies have been proposed using conventional and unconventional control techniques such as fuzzy logic, neural networks, and adaptive controllers to increase the stabilitymargin of the systemduring sudden failures and transient disturbances. Thismaster thesis presents a robust unconventional control strategy for maintaining the stability of power systems and regulation of output voltage of synchronous generators connected to the grid. The proposed control strategy comprises the integration of a sliding surface with a linear controller. This control structure is designed to prevent the power system losing synchronism after a sudden failure and regulation of the terminal voltage of the generator after the fault. The feasibility of the proposed control strategy was experimentally tested in a salient pole synchronous generator of 5 kVA in a laboratory structure

EFFICIENT FAULT LOCATION IN UNDERGROUND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS THROUGH OPTIMUM-PATH FOREST

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A New Approach for Nontechnical Losses Detection Based on Optimum-Path Forest

Nowadays, fraud detection is important to avoid nontechnical energy losses. Various electric companies around the world have been faced with such losses, mainly from industrial and commercial consumers. This problem has traditionally been dealt with using artificial intelligence techniques, although their use can result in difficulties such as a high computational burden in the training phase and problems with parameter optimization. A recently-developed pattern recognition technique called optimum-path forest (OPF), however, has been shown to be superior to state-of-the-art artificial intelligence techniques. In this paper, we proposed to use OPF for nontechnical losses detection, as well as to apply its learning and pruning algorithms to this purpose. Comparisons against neural networks and other techniques demonstrated the robustness of the OPF with respect to commercial losses automatic identification.

Structural FRF acquisition via electric impedance measurement applied to damage location

Continuing development of new materials makes systems lighter and stronger permitting more complex systems to provide more functionality and flexibility that demands a more effective evaluation of their structural health. Smart material technology has become an area of increasing interest in this field. The combination of smart materials and artificial neural networks can be used as an excellent tool for pattern recognition, turning their application adequate for monitoring and fault classification of equipment and structures. In order to identify the fault, the neural network must be trained using a set of solutions to its corresponding forward Variational problem. After the training process, the net can successfully solve the inverse variational problem in the context of monitoring and fault detection because of their pattern recognition and interpolation capabilities. The use of structural frequency response function is a fundamental portion of structural dynamic analysis, and it can be extracted from measured electric impedance through the electromechanical interaction of a piezoceramic and a structure. In this paper we use the FRF obtained by a mathematical model (FEM) in order to generate the training data for the neural networks, and the identification of damage can be done by measuring electric impedance, since suitable data normalization correlates FRF and electrical impedance.

Evidence for production of single top quarks

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Infrared face recogniton by optimum-path forest

This paper presents a novel, fast and accurate appearance-based method for infrared face recognition. By introducing the Optimum-Path Forest classifier, our objective is to get good recognition rates and effectively reduce the computational effort. The feature extraction procedure is carried out by PCA, and the results are compared to two other well known supervised learning classifiers; Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines. The achieved performance asserts the promise of the proposed framework. ©2009 IEEE.

Fast non-technical losses identification through Optimum-Path Forest

Fraud detection in energy systems by illegal consumers is the most actively pursued study in non-technical losses by electric power companies. Commonly used supervised pattern recognition techniques, such as Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines have been applied for automatic commercial frauds identification, however they suffer from slow convergence and high computational burden. We introduced here the Optimum-Path Forest classifier for a fast non-technical losses recognition, which has been demonstrated to be superior than neural networks and similar to Support Vector Machines, but much faster. Comparisons among these classifiers are also presented. © 2009 IEEE.

Parkinson's disease identification through Optimum-Path Forest

Artificial intelligence techniques have been extensively used for the identification of several disorders related with the voice signal analysis, such as Parkinson's disease (PD). However, some of these techniques flaw by assuming some separability in the original feature space or even so in the one induced by a kernel mapping. In this paper we propose the PD automatic recognition by means of Optimum-Path Forest (OPF), which is a new recently developed pattern recognition technique that does not assume any shape/separability of the classes/feature space. The experiments showed that OPF outperformed Support Vector Machines, Artificial Neural Networks and other commonly used supervised classification techniques for PD identification. © 2010 IEEE.

Intrusion detection system using optimum-path forest

Intrusion detection systems that make use of artificial intelligence techniques in order to improve effectiveness have been actively pursued in the last decade. Neural networks and Support Vector Machines have been also extensively applied to this task. However, their complexity to learn new attacks has become very expensive, making them inviable for a real time retraining. In this research, we introduce a new pattern classifier named Optimum-Path Forest (OPF) to this task, which has demonstrated to be similar to the state-of-the-art pattern recognition techniques, but extremely more efficient for training patterns. Experiments on public datasets showed that OPF classifier may be a suitable tool to detect intrusions on computer networks, as well as allow the algorithm to learn new attacks faster than the other techniques. © 2011 IEEE.

Fast robot voice interface through optimum-path forest

Voice-based user interfaces have been actively pursued aiming to help individuals with motor impairments, providing natural interfaces to communicate with machines. In this work, we have introduced a recent machine learning technique named Optimum-Path Forest (OPF) for voice-based robot interface, which has been demonstrated to be similar to the state-of-the-art pattern recognition techniques, but much faster. Experiments were conducted against Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks and a Bayesian classifier to show the OPF robustness. The proposed architecture provides high accuracy rates allied with low computational times. © 2012 IEEE.

Sistema inteligente híbrido intercomunicativo para detecção de perdas comerciais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)