Modelling the control of interceptive actions

In recent years, several phenomenological dynamical models have been formulated that describe how perceptual variables are incorporated in the control of motor variables. We call these short-route models as they do not address how perception-action patterns might be constrained by the dynamical properties of the sensory, neural and musculoskeletal subsystems of the human action system. As an alternative, we advocate a long-route modelling approach in which the dynamics of these subsystems are explicitly addressed and integrated to reproduce interceptive actions. The approach is exemplified through a discussion of a recently developed model for interceptive actions consisting of a neural network architecture for the online generation of motor outflow commands, based on time-to-contact information and information about the relative positions and velocities of hand and ball. This network is shown to be consistent with both behavioural and neurophysiological data. Finally, some problems are discussed with regard to the question of how the motor outflow commands (i.e. the intended movement) might be modulated in view of the musculoskeletal dynamics.

Investigating local relationships between trace elements in soils and cancer data

Medical geology research has recognised a number of potentially toxic elements (PTEs), such as arsenic, cobalt, chromium, copper, nickel, lead, vanadium, uranium and zinc, known to influence human disease by their respective deficiency or toxicity. As the impact of infectious diseases has decreased and the population ages, so cancer has become the most common cause of death in developed countries including Northern Ireland. This research explores the relationship between environmental exposure to potentially toxic elements in soil and cancer disease data across Northern Ireland. The incidence of twelve different cancer types (lung, stomach, leukaemia, oesophagus, colorectal, bladder, kidney, breast, mesothelioma, melanoma and non melanoma(NM) both basal and squamous, were examined in the form of twenty-five coded datasets comprising aggregates over the 12 year period from 1993 to 2006. A local modelling technique,geographically weighted regression (GWR) is usedto explore the relationship between environmental exposure and cancer disease data. The results show comparisons of the geographical incidence of certain cancers (stomach and NM squamous skin cancer) in relation to concentrations of certain PTEs (arsenic levels in soils and radon were identified). Findings from the research have implications for regional human health risk assessments.

Multidimensional modelling of X-ray spectra for AGN accretion disc outflows

We use a multidimensional Monte Carlo code to compute X-ray spectra for a variety of active galactic nucleus (AGN) disc-wind outflow geometries. We focus on the formation of blueshifted absorption features in the Fe K band and show that line features similar to those which have been reported in observations are often produced for lines of sight through disc-wind geometries. We also discuss the formation of other spectral features in highly ionized outflows. In particular, we show that, for sufficiently high wind densities, moderately strong Fe K emission lines can form and that electron scattering in the flow may cause these lines to develop extended red wings. We illustrate the potential relevance of such models to the interpretation of real X-ray data by comparison with observations of a well-known AGN, Mrk 766. Journal compilation © 2008 RAS.

Modelling the X-ray spectra of high-velocity outflows from quasars

High-velocity outflows from supermassive black holes have been invoked to explain the recent identification of strong absorption features in the hard X-ray spectra of several quasars. Here, Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations are performed to synthesize X-ray spectra from models of such flows. It is found that simple, parametric biconical outflow models with plausible choices for the wind parameters predict spectra that are in good qualitative agreement with observations in the 2-10 keV band. The influence on the spectrum of both the mass-loss rate and opening angle of the flow are considered: the latter is important since photon leakage plays a significant role in establishing an ionization gradient within the flow, a useful discriminant between spherical and conical outflow for this and other applications. Particular attention is given to the bright quasar PG 1211+143 for which constraints on the outflow geometry and mass-loss rate are discussed subject to the limitations of the currently available observational data.

Multidimensional modelling of X-ray spectra for AGN accretion disc outflows - II

Highly ionized fast accretion disc winds have been suggested as an explanation for a variety of observed absorption and emission features in the X-ray spectra of active galactic nuclei. Simple estimates have suggested that these flows may be massive enough to carry away a significant fraction of the accretion energy and could be involved in creating the link between supermassive black holes and their host galaxies. However, testing these hypotheses, and quantifying the outflow signatures, requires high-quality theoretical spectra for comparison with observations. Here, we describe extensions of our Monte Carlo radiative transfer code that allow us to generate realistic theoretical spectra for a much wider variety of disc wind models than that was possible in our previous work. In particular, we have expanded the range of atomic physics simulated by the code so that L- and M-shell ions can now be included. We have also substantially improved our treatment of both ionization and radiative heating such that we are now able to compute spectra for outflows containing far more diverse plasma conditions. We present example calculations that illustrate the variety of spectral features predicted by parametrized outflow models and demonstrate their applicability to the interpretation of data by comparison with observations of the bright quasar PG1211+143. We find that the major features in the observed 2-10 keV spectrum of this object can be well reproduced by our spectra, confirming that it likely hosts a massive outflow. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 RAS.

Lifetime visual prognosis of patients with glaucoma

BACKGROUND: To investigate the visual outcome of glaucoma patients.

DESIGN: This is a retrospective study of case notes of patients who died while under follow up in a glaucoma clinic of a University Hospital in Scotland between 2006 and 2009.

PARTICIPANTS: Seventy-seven patients were identified.

METHODS: Data collected included type of glaucoma, coexisting pathology and best-corrected visual acuity in Snellen (converted to decimal values) for the first and final clinic visit. The final visual status was evaluated based on the best-corrected visual acuity of the better seeing eye at the last glaucoma clinic visit. Patients who had best-corrected visual acuity of less than Snellen decimal 0.5 were considered not to meet the standards for driving.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Snellen decimal best-corrected visual acuity, fulfilment of driving standards, and eligibility for partial sight and blind registration at the last clinic visit.

RESULTS: The mean ages at presentation and death were 71.8 ± 10.3 years and 82.2 ± 8.7 years respectively. The mean Snellen decimal best-corrected visual acuity of the better eye at presentation was 0.78, and at the final clinic visit was 0.61. At the final clinic visit, no patients were partial sight registrable, four (5.2%) were blind registrable, and 27 (35.1%) did not fulfil UK driving criteria. Glaucoma patients with other ocular pathologies were more likely to fail UK driving criteria at presentation (P = 0.02) and at last clinic visit (P = 0.03).

CONCLUSION: The majority of glaucoma patients maintained good visual function at the end of their lifetime.

Modelling trajectories through the educational system in North West England

The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and 'A'-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we find no evidence of any locality-level effects. Overall, none of the explanatory variables conventionally considered to affect educational attainment had a consistent effect across all three stages. Rather, each explanatory variable had a contingent effect at specific points within the overall trajectory of educational outcomes.

Modelling local-scale determinants and the probability of microarthropod species occurrence in Antarctic soils

Soil fauna in the extreme conditions of Antarctica consists of a few microinvertebrate species patchily distributed at different spatial scales. Populations of the prostigmatic mite Stereotydeus belli and the collembolan Gressittacantha terranova from northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) were used as models to study the effect of soil properties on microarthropod distributions. In agreement with the general assumption that the development and distribution of life in these ecosystems is mainly controlled by abiotic factors, we found that the probability of occurrence of S. belli depends on soil moisture and texture and on the sampling period (which affects the general availability of water); surprisingly, none of the analysed variables were significantly related to the G. terranova distribution. Based on our results and literature data, we propose a theoretical model that introduces biotic interactions among the major factors driving the local distribution of collembolans in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Hydrodynamic Modelling Framework for Strangford Lough Part 1: Tidal Model

Hydrodynamic models are a powerful tool that can be used by a wide range of end users to assist in predicting the effects of both physical and biological processes on local environmental conditions. This paper describes the development of a tidal model for Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen, as well as the UK’s third Marine Nature Reserve. Using MIKE 21 modelling software, the development, calibration and performance of the modelare described in detail. Strangford Lough has a complex flow pattern with high flows through the Narrows (~3.5 m/s) linking the main body of the Lough to the Irish Sea and intricate flow patterns around the numerous islands. With the aid of good quality tidal and current data obtained throughout the Lough during the model development, the surface elevation and current magnitude between the observed and numerical model were almost identical with model skill >0.98 and >0.84 respectively. The applicability of the model is such that it can be used as an important tool for the prediction of important ecological processes as well as engineering applications within Strangford Lough.

Advances in joint modelling: A review of recent developments with application to the survival of end stage renal disease patients

The use of joint modelling approaches is becoming increasingly popular when an association exists between survival and longitudinal processes. Widely recognized for their gain in efficiency, joint models also offer a reduction in bias compared with naïve methods. With the increasing popularity comes a constantly expanding literature on joint modelling approaches. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of recent literature relating to joint models, in particular those that focus on the time-to-event survival process. A discussion is provided on the range of survival submodels that have been implemented in a joint modelling framework. A particular focus is given to the recent advancements in software used to build these models. Illustrated through the use of two different real-life data examples that focus on the survival of end-stage renal disease patients, the use of the JM and joineR packages within R are demonstrated. The possible future direction for this field of research is also discussed. © 2013 International Statistical Institute.

Chemometric techniques in multivariate statistical modelling of process plant

The techniques of principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) are introduced from the point of view of providing a multivariate statistical method for modelling process plants. The advantages and limitations of PCA and PLS are discussed from the perspective of the type of data and problems that might be encountered in this application area. These concepts are exemplified by two case studies dealing first with data from a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) simulation and second a literature source describing a low-density polyethylene (LDPE) reactor simulation.

Multibody modelling of a TB31 and a TB32 crash test with vertical portable concrete barriers: model verification and sensitivity analysis.

In this article the multibody simulation software package MADYMO for analysing and optimizing occupant safety design was used to model crash tests for Normal Containment barriers in accordance with EN 1317. The verification process was carried out by simulating a TB31 and a TB32 crash test performed on vertical portable concrete barriers and by comparing the numerical results to those obtained experimentally. The same modelling approach was applied to both tests to evaluate the predictive capacity of the modelling at two different impact speeds. A sensitivity analysis of the vehicle stiffness was also carried out. The capacity to predict all of the principal EN1317 criteria was assessed for the first time: the acceleration severity index, the theoretical head impact velocity, the barrier working width and the vehicle exit box. Results showed a maximum error of 6% for the acceleration severity index and 21% for theoretical head impact velocity for the numerical simulation in comparison to the recorded data. The exit box position was predicted with a maximum error of 4°. For the working width, a large percentage difference was observed for test TB31 due to the small absolute value of the barrier deflection but the results were well within the limit value from the standard for both tests. The sensitivity analysis showed the robustness of the modelling with respect to contact stiffness increase of ±20% and ±40%. This is the first multibody model of portable concrete barriers that can reproduce not only the acceleration severity index but all the test criteria of EN 1317 and is therefore a valuable tool for new product development and for injury biomechanics research.

Understanding macroalgal dispersal in a complex hydrodynamic environment: a combined population genetic and physical modelling approach

Gene flow in macroalgal populations can be strongly influenced by spore or gamete dispersal. This, in turn, is influenced by a convolution of the effects of current flow and specific plant reproductive strategies. Although several studies have demonstrated genetic variability in macroalgal populations over a wide range of spatial scales, the associated current data have generally been poorly resolved spatially and temporally. In this study, we used a combination of population genetic analyses and high-resolution hydrodynamic modelling to investigate potential connectivity between populations of the kelp Laminaria digitata in the Strangford Narrows, a narrow channel characterized by strong currents linking the large semi-enclosed sea lough, Strangford Lough, to the Irish Sea. Levels of genetic structuring based on six microsatellite markers were very low, indicating high levels of gene flow and a pattern of isolation-by-distance, where populations are more likely to exchange migrants with geographically proximal populations, but with occasional long-distance dispersal. This was confirmed by the particle tracking model, which showed that, while the majority of spores settle near the release site, there is potential for dispersal over several kilometres. This combined population genetic and modelling approach suggests that the complex hydrodynamic environment at the entrance to Strangford Lough can facilitate dispersal on a scale exceeding that proposed for L. digitata in particular, and the majority of macroalgae in general. The study demonstrates the potential of integrated physical–biological approaches for the prediction of ecological changes resulting from factors such as anthropogenically induced coastal zone changes.

Nonlinear numerical modelling of lightning strike effect on composite panels with temperature dependent material properties

This paper presents a physics based modelling procedure to predict the thermal damage of composite material when struck by lightning. The procedure uses the Finite Element Method with non-linear material models to represent the extreme thermal material behaviour of the composite material (carbon/epoxy) and an embedded copper mesh protection system. Simulation predictions are compared against published experimental data, illustrating the potential accuracy and computational cost of virtual lightning strike tests and the requirement for temperature dependent material modelling. The modelling procedure is then used to examine and explain a number of practical solutions to minimize thermal material damage. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

The lifetime direct cost of periodontal treatment:A case study from a norwegian specialist practice

Background: Successful periodontal treatment requires a commitment to regular lifelong maintenance and may be perceived by patients to be costly. This study calculates the total lifetime cost of periodontal treatment in the setting of a specialist periodontal practice and investigates the cost implications of choosing not to proceed with such treatment. Methods: Data from patients treated in a specialist practice in Norway were used to calculate the total lifetime cost of periodontal treatment that included baseline periodontal treatment, regular maintenance, retreatment, and replacing teeth lost during maintenance. Incremental costs for alternative strategies based on opting to forego periodontal treatment or maintenance and to replace any teeth lost with either bridgework or implants were calculated. Results: Patients who completed baseline periodontal treatment but did not have any additional maintenance or retreatment could replace only three teeth with bridgework or two teeth with implants before the cost of replacing additional teeth would exceed the cost of lifetime periodontal treatment. Patients who did not have any periodontal treatment could replace ≤4 teeth with bridgework or implants before a replacement strategy became more expensive. Conclusions: Within the limits of the assumptions made, periodontal treatment in a Norwegian specialist periodontal practice is cost-effective when compared to an approach that relies on opting to replace teeth lost as a result of progressive periodontitis with fixed restorations. In particular, patients who have initial comprehensive periodontal treatment but do not subsequently comply with maintenance could, on average, replace ≤3 teeth with bridgework or two teeth with implants before this approach would exceed the direct cost of lifetime periodontal treatment in the setting of the specialist practice studied. © 2012 American Academy of Periodontology.