Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Information Visualization in a Business Decision Support System

Information visualization is a process of constructing a visual presentation of abstract quantitative data. The characteristics of visual perception enable humans to recognize patterns, trends and anomalies inherent in the data with little effort in a visual display. Such properties of the data are likely to be missed in a purely text-based presentation. Visualizations are therefore widely used in contemporary business decision support systems. Visual user interfaces called dashboards are tools for reporting the status of a company and its business environment to facilitate business intelligence (BI) and performance management activities. In this study, we examine the research on the principles of human visual perception and information visualization as well as the application of visualization in a business decision support system. A review of current BI software products reveals that the visualizations included in them are often quite ineffective in communicating important information. Based on the principles of visual perception and information visualization, we summarize a set of design guidelines for creating effective visual reporting interfaces.

Modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective decisions during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects: A decision rule approach

Major infrastructure and construction (MIC) projects are those with significant traffic or environmental impact, of strategic and regional significance and high sensitivity. The decision making process of schemes of this type is becoming ever more complicated, especially with the increasing number of stakeholders involved and their growing tendency to defend their own varied interests. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of stakeholders may result in project failures. To avoid this necessitates a systematic participatory approach to facilitate decision-making. Though numerous decision models have been established in previous studies (e.g. ELECTRE methods, the analytic hierarchy process and analytic network process) their applicability in the decision process during stakeholder participation in contemporary MIC projects is still uncertain. To resolve this, the decision rule approach is employed for modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective project decisions. Through this, the result is obtained naturally according to the “rules” accepted by any stakeholder involved. In this sense, consensus is more likely to be achieved since the process is more convincing and the result is easier to be accepted by all concerned. Appropriate “rules”, comprehensive enough to address multiple objectives while straightforward enough to be understood by multiple stakeholders, are set for resolving conflict and facilitating consensus during the project decision process. The West Kowloon Cultural District (WKCD) project is used as a demonstration case and a focus group meeting is conducted in order to confirm the validity of the model established. The results indicate that the model is objective, reliable and practical enough to cope with real world problems. Finally, a suggested future research agenda is provided.

Integrating Rapid Phenotyping and Speed Breeding to Improve Stay-Green and Root Adaptation of Wheat in Changing, Water-Limited, Australian Environments

Temperatures have increased and in-crop rainfall decreased over recent decades in many parts of the Australian wheat cropping region. With these trends set to continue or intensify, improving crop adaptation in the face of climate change is particularly urgent in this, already drought-prone, cropping region. Importantly, improved performance under water-limitation must be achieved while retaining yield potential during more favourable seasons. A multi-trait-based approach to improve wheat yield and yield stability in the face of water-limitation and heat has been instigated in northern Australia using novel phenotyping techniques and a nested association mapping (NAM) approach. An innovative laboratory technique allows rapid root trait screening of hundreds of lines. Using soil grown seedlings, the method offers significant advantages over many other lab-based techniques. Another recently developed method allows novel stay-green traits to be quantified objectively for hundreds of genotypes in standard field trial plots. Field trials in multiple locations and seasons allow evaluation of targeted trait values and identification of superior germplasm. Traits, including yield and yield components are measured for hundreds of NAM lines in rain fed environments under various levels of water-limitation. To rapidly generate lines of interest, the University of Queensland “speed breeding” method is being employed, allowing up to 7 plant generations per annum. A NAM population of over 1000 wheat recombinant inbred lines has been progressed to the F5 generation within 18 months. Genotyping the NAM lines with the genome-wide DArTseq molecular marker system provides up to 40,000 markers. They are now being used for association mapping to validate QTL previously identified in bi-parental populations and to identify novel QTL for stay-green and root traits. We believe that combining the latest techniques in physiology, phenotyping, genetics and breeding will increase genetic progress toward improved adaptation to water-limited environments.

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages.

Climate savvy grazing (Developing improved grazing and related practices to assist beef production enterprises across northern Australia to adapt to a changing and more variable climate)

There is uncertainty over the potential changes to rainfall across northern Australia under climate change. Since rainfall is a key driver of pasture growth, cattle numbers and the resulting animal productivity and beef business profitability, the ability to anticipate possible management strategies within such uncertainty is crucial. The Climate Savvy Grazing project used existing research, expert knowledge and computer modelling to explore the best-bet management strategies within best, median and worse-case future climate scenarios. All three scenarios indicated changes to the environment and resources upon which the grazing industry of northern Australia depends. Well-adapted management strategies under a changing climate are very similar to best practice within current climatic conditions. Maintaining good land condition builds resource resilience, maximises opportunities under higher rainfall years and reduces the risk of degradation during drought and failed wet seasons. Matching stocking rate to the safe long-term carrying capacity of the land is essential; reducing stock numbers in response to poor seasons and conservatively increasing stock numbers in response to better seasons generally improves profitability and maintains land in good condition. Spelling over the summer growing season will improve land condition under a changing climate as it does under current conditions. Six regions were included within the project. Of these, the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory, Gulf country of Queensland and the Kimberley region of Western Australia had projections of similar or higher than current rainfall and the potential for carrying capacity to increase. The Alice Springs, Maranoa-Balonne and Fitzroy regions had projections of generally drying conditions and the greatest risk of reduced pasture growth and carrying capacity. Encouraging producers to consider and act on the risks, opportunities and management options inherent in climate change was a key goal of the project. More than 60,000 beef producers, advisors and stakeholders are now more aware of the management strategies which build resource resilience, and that resilience helps buffer against the effects of variable and changing climatic conditions. Over 700 producers have stated they have improved confidence, skills and knowledge to attempt new practices to build resilience. During the course of the project, more than 165 beef producers reported they have implemented changes to build resource and business resilience.

Information technology and its changing roles to economic growth and productivity in Australia

In this paper we describe our investigation of the role of investment in information technology (IT) on economic output and productivity in Australia over a period of about four decades. The framework used in this paper is the aggregate production function, where IT capital is considered as a separate input of production along with non-IT capital and labour. The empirical results from the study indicate the evidence of robust technical progress in the Australian economy in the 1990s. IT capital had a significant impact on output, labour productivity and technical progress in the 1990s. In recent years, however, the contribution of IT capital on output and labour productivity has slowed down. Regaining the IT capital productivity therefore remains as a key challenge for Australia, especially in the context of greater IT investment in the future.

Optimal maintenance and replacement via a semi-Markov decision model

Optimal bang-coast maintenance policies for a machine, subject to failure, are considered. The approach utilizes a semi-Markov model for the system. A simplified model for modifying the probability of machine failure with maintenance is employed. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the procedure and results.

Organizational competencies and dynamic Accounting Information System capability: Impact on AIS processes and firm performance

Accounting information systems (AIS) capture and process accounting data and provide valuable information for decision-makers. However, in a rapidly changing environment, continual management of the AIS is necessary for organizations to optimise performance outcomes. We suggest that building a dynamic AIS capability enables accounting process and organizational performance. Using the dynamic capabilities framework (Teece 2007) we propose that a dynamic AIS capability can be developed through the synergy of three competencies: a flexible AIS, having a complementary business intelligence system and accounting professionals with IT technical competency. Using survey data, we find evidence of a positive association between a dynamic AIS capability, accounting process performance, and overall firm performance. The results suggest that developing a dynamic AIS resource can add value to an organization. This study provides guidance for organizations looking to leverage the performance outcomes of their AIS environment.

Making and changing wills: Prevalence, predictors, and triggers

Wills are important social, economic, and legal documents. Yet little is known about current will making practices and intentions. A comprehensive national database on the prevalence of will making in Australia was developed to identify who is or is not most likely to draw up a will and triggers for making and changing wills. A national survey of 2,405 adults aged above 18 years was administered by telephone in August and September 2012. Fifty-nine percent of the Australian adult population has a valid will, and the likelihood of will making increases with age and estate value. Efforts to get organized, especially in combination with life stage and asset changes trigger will making; procrastination, rather than a strong resistance, appears to explain not making a will. Understanding will making is timely in the context of predicted significant intergenerational transfers of wealth, changing demographics, and a renewed emphasis on retirement planning.

What influences a patients decision to use custom-made orthopaedic shoes?

Background Despite potential benefits, some patients decide not to use their custom-made orthopaedic shoes (OS). Factors are known in the domains ‘usability’, ‘communication and service’, and ‘opinion of others’ that influence a patient’s decision to use OS. However, the interplay between these factors has never been investigated. The aim of this study was to explore the interplay between factors concerning OS, and the influences thereof on a patient’s decision to use OS. Methods A mixed-methods design was used, combining qualitative and quantitative data by means of sequential data analysis and triangulation. Priority was given to the qualitative part. Qualitative data was gathered with a semi-structured interview covering the three domains. Data was analysed using the framework approach. Quantitative data concerned the interplay between factors and determining a rank-order for the importance of factors of ‘usability’. Results A patient’s decision to use OS was influenced by various factors indicated as being important and by acceptance of their OS. Factors of ‘usability’ were more important than factors of ‘communication’; the ‘opinion of others’ was of limited importance. An improvement of walking was indicated as the most important factor of ‘usability’. The importance of other factors (cosmetic appearance and ease of use) was determined by reaching a compromise between these factors and an improvement of walking. Conclusions A patient’s decision to use OS is influenced by various factors indicated as being important and by acceptance of their OS. An improvement of walking is the most important factor of ‘usability’, the importance of other factors (cosmetic appearance and ease of use) is determined by reaching compromises between these factors and an improvement of walking. Communication is essential to gain insight in a patient’s acceptance and in the compromises they are willing to reach. This makes communication the key for clinicians to influence a patient’s decision to use OS.

Naiset ja naisten puheet kirkolliskokouksen naispappeuskeskusteluissa vuosina 1974-1987

Women and women s words in discussions about the ordination of women in the General Synod between 1974 and 1987. In 1986, the General Synod of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Finland approved the ordination of women. Prior to that decision, a considerable amount of discussion and debate took place about this renewal in both the Synod and the general public. The different points of view had divided the church and the people, and had placed the church under pressure to resolve the issue as soon as possible. At the same time, the changing climate in people s attitudes toward the church and the changing position of women in society clearly weighed in on this matter. The research material consists of the speeches about the ordination of women given by the women representatives in the General Synod of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Finland between the years 1974 and 1987. The aim is to determine why these representatives wanted to ordain women as pastors, what kind of women pastors they wanted to have in the congregations, and what they wanted to change in the church through this renewal. The basic methods of the analysis include discourse analysis as well as the new rhetorics and some concepts used by Pierre Bourdieu. A framework, which I named rhetoric patterning, was developed to interpret the results. This framework has facilitated the identification of three effective discourses in the studied argumentation: the folk church discourse, the pastor image discourse and the church image discourse. According to the opinions of the women representatives, the concept of change turned out to be a very decisive factor as the church sought a way to reach its members. To maintain a good and modern image seemed very important for the church to be able to perform its task in the modern era. The women representatives presented the situation of the church in terms of contextual theology and took seriously the membership of all those baptized into the church. They were therefore ready to take into account the opinion of all church members. The problem was that even though the ordination of women was established, the fixed mental schemes of the people and the strong power structures of the church remained untouched. Women were allowed into a new area of church life, but with certain publicly pronounced and unconsciously recognized conditions. Did this change really mean greater equality between women and men, as was intended? Key words: ordination of women, General Synod, contextualization, discourse analysis.

Regional Integration and the State : The Changing Nature of Sovereignty in Southern Africa and Europe

The study explores the role of the state in regional integration processes. The question is approached through theoretical discussion and two case-studies - SADC (Southern African Development Community) and the EU. The main research question of the study is, what are the possibilities and problems of the integration process in Southern Africa and how do they differ from the possibilities and problems of the integration process in Europe. The undelrying question of the study is why do states decide to participate in an integration process where they have to limit their sovereignty. Review of the theoretical discussion of the integration studies shows that the integration process is affected by several factors on different levels of the international system. But the state plays a central role in integration processes - integration processes are inititated and carried on by the participatig states. The European integration process shows that the interests of the state can change over time. At the beginning of the integration process, the objective was to strengthen participating states. Later EU member states have decided that it is in their interest to deepen the process even if it has meant limitation of their sovereignty. The determinant factor has been that the member states have considered it to be in their interst to deepen the process. In Southern Africa the integration process is only at the beginning. SADC aims to establish a free trade area by 2008. The biggest challenge is how to implement the integration process so that it benefits all member states in a region that is economically dominated by South Africa. In practice this can be achieved through establishment of corrective mechanisms, which ensure equitable distribution of benefits. This would require deeper integration and South Africa to adapt responsibility towards its regional partners. African integration processes in general have not been as successful as for example the EU. African states have been reluctant to limit their sovereignty in favour of regional organisations.This can be explained by the differences between European and African states. The EU member states have been democracies while African states have been characterised by concentration of power in the executive branch. Furthermore the political systems in Africa have been characterised by vertical clientelist reltionships. As a result it has not been in the interest of the political elite to limit the state sovereignty in favour of regional organisations. In recent years SADC has been relatively succesful in its integration process and reforms, but a lot remains to be done before the implementation of the free trade area can be succesful. The institutional structure and treaties of SADC differ from the structures of the EU. Member states are the main actors of the integration processes. Their differences are reflected in the process and produce different kinds of integration in different parts of the world.