Measuring drug use patterns in Queensland through wastewater analysis

Estimating the use of illicit drugs in the general community is an important task with ramifications for law enforcement agencies, as well as health portfolios. Australia has four ongoing drug monitoring systems, including the AIC’s DUMA program, the National Drug Strategy Household Survey, the Illicit Drug Reporting System and the Ecstasy and Related Drug Reporting System. The systems vary in methods, but broadly they are reliant upon self-report data and may be subject to selection biases. The present study employed a completely different method. By chemically analysing sewerage water, the study produced daily estimates of consumption of methamphetamine, MDMA and cocaine. Samples were collected in November 2009 and November 2010 from a municipality in Queensland, with an population of over 150,000 people. Estimates were made of the average daily dose and average daily street value per 1,000 people. On the basis of estimated dose and price, the methamphetamine market appeared considerably stronger than either MDMA or cocaine. This paper explains the strengths and weaknesses of wastewater analysis. It considers the potential value of wastewater analysis in measuring net consumption of illicit drugs and the effectiveness of law enforcement agency strategies.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies 11 risk variants associated with the asthma with hay fever phenotype

Background To date, no genome-wide association study (GWAS) has considered the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever. Previous analyses of family data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study provide evidence that this phenotype has a stronger genetic cause than asthma without hay fever. Objective We sought to perform a GWAS of asthma with hay fever to identify variants associated with having both diseases. Methods We performed a meta-analysis of GWASs comparing persons with both physician-diagnosed asthma and hay fever (n = 6,685) with persons with neither disease (n = 14,091). Results At genome-wide significance, we identified 11 independent variants associated with the risk of having asthma with hay fever, including 2 associations reaching this level of significance with allergic disease for the first time: ZBTB10 (rs7009110; odds ratio [OR], 1.14; P = 4 × 10−9) and CLEC16A (rs62026376; OR, 1.17; P = 1 × 10−8). The rs62026376:C allele associated with increased asthma with hay fever risk has been found to be associated also with decreased expression of the nearby DEXI gene in monocytes. The 11 variants were associated with the risk of asthma and hay fever separately, but the estimated associations with the individual phenotypes were weaker than with the combined asthma with hay fever phenotype. A variant near LRRC32 was a stronger risk factor for hay fever than for asthma, whereas the reverse was observed for variants in/near GSDMA and TSLP. Single nucleotide polymorphisms with suggestive evidence for association with asthma with hay fever risk included rs41295115 near IL2RA (OR, 1.28; P = 5 × 10−7) and rs76043829 in TNS1 (OR, 1.23; P = 2 × 10−6). Conclusion By focusing on the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever, variants associated with the risk of allergic disease can be identified with greater efficiency.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Tarskin totuus : Totuuden määrittelemisen taustaehtoja ja seurauksia

Tutkielma esittelee Alfred Tarskin formalisoitujen kielien totuusmääritelmän filosofisia ja loogisia taustaehtoja ja seurauksia. Tutkimuksen keskeisimmät menetelmät ovat filosofinen analyysi ja matemaattinen logiikka. Keinona on myös aatehistoriallinen tutkimus. Keskeisin tutkimuksen kohde on Alfred Tarskin artikkeli "Der Wahrheitsbegriff in den formalisierten Sprachen", 1935 (julkaistu käännöksenä teoksessa Logic, Semantics, Metamathematics, Papers from 1923 to 1938, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1956). Tarskin alkuperäinen totuusmääritelmä formalisoiduille kielille ja totuuden määrittelemättömyystulos ovat esitetty nykyaikaisella notaatiolla. Analyyttisen ja historiallisen lähestymisen kautta Tarskin totuusmääritelmän ja malliteorian suhteita selvennetään absoluuttisen ja suhteellisen totuuskäsityksen avulla. Ajatusta formaalisista kielistä ennalta annetusti tulkittuina kielinä esitellään ja sen historiallisia taustoja selvitetään. Tämän idean olennaisuus todetaan Tarskin 1930-luvun totuusmääritelmän muodostumiselle. Eräiden käännöksen käsitteeseen liittyvien epäselvyyksien esiin nostaminen ja aksiomaattisten totuusteorioiden ja totuusmääritelmän suhteen esitteleminen ovat osa tutkielman loogista osuutta. Näiden lisäksi tutkielma esittelee S. Shapiron ja J. Ketlandin totuusteoreettisen deationismin kritiikkiä, jossa käytetään Tarskin totuusmääritelmää vastaavaa totuusteoreettista aksiomatisointia.

"Philly Joe" Jonesin Jazz-rumpukomppaus : Improvisoitu säestys ja vuorovaikutus kappaleessa 'Blues for Philly Joe'

Tutkielma käsittelee jazz-rumpali Joseph Rudolph Philly Joe Jonesin (1923 1985) improvisoitua säestystä, komppausta, ja soittajien välisen vuorovaikutuksen osuutta jazz-esityksen muotoutumisessa. Jazz-rumpalin soitolle on tyypillistä, että kaikki toiminta on improvisoitua, kappaleen ja lajin viitekehyksen sekä häneen kohdistuvien odotusten raameissa tapahtuvaa luomisprosessia. Jazz-analyysi on painottunut kontekstista irrotetun improvisoinnin tutkimiseen, mutta tässä työssä painopiste on ryhmädynamiikassa. Analyysikohde on Sonny Rollinsin säveltämä 12-tahtinen blues Blues for Philly Joe (1957) Rollinsin levyltä Newk s Time (Blue Note 7243 5 76752 2 2). Rumpukomppausta tarkastellaan kolmesta näkökulmasta. Aluksi rumpuosuudesta pelkistetään erityisen karsimismenetelmän avulla komppauksen rytminen hahmo, rytmilinja. Rytmilinja-analyysin avulla vastataan tutkimuskysymykseen minkälaisilla rytmeillä Jones komppaa, ja miten sen rytmi suhteutuu pulssiin, metriin ja muotoon nähden. Seuraavaksi motiivianalyysista kehitetyllä aiheiden erittely- ja variaatiomenetelmällä määritellään Jonesin komppausfraasien piirteet, rakenteet ja variaatiot. Lopuksi Jonesin ja solistin välistä vuorovaikutusta tutkitaan kartoittamalla aihelainaukset, sekä rytmisektion sisäistä koordinointia rytmilinjojen avulla. Rytmilinja paljastaa Jonesin korostavan usein tiettyjä tahdinosia tietyissä rakennepaikoissa eri kertauksissa. Komppaus tuo rakenteelliset taitepaikat esiin, ja samalla sen polyrytmit horjuttavat vallitsevaa 4/4-metriä. Fraasianalyysi paljastaa Jonesin komppiaiheiden käytön olevan johdonmukaista, ja joillakin fraaseilla on oma täsmällinen funktionsa. Pitkätkin komppifraasit perustuvat vain muutamaan hahmoon, joista tärkeimmät ovat kolmijakoiset polymetrit ja synkoopit. Vuorovaikutus solistin kanssa ilmenee kahdensuuntaisina aihelainauksina tai vaihtoehtoisesti kontrasteina. Rytmisektion sisäisen vuorovaikutuksen muodoista merkittäviin on yhteisten toistuvien rytmiaiheiden, riffien, koordinoitu käyttö. Rytmisektion jäsenet myös hakeutuvat tietoisesti toisen soittajan rytmilinjan sisään päätyäkseen samoille tahdinosille. Työssä konkretisoituu säestämisen ja vuorovaikutuksen merkitys jazz-improvisoinnin synnyttäjänä. Tutkimuskohde ei olisi voinut tulla lopulliseen muotoonsa ilman soittajien vuorovaikutusta. Tämän työn myötä nousee tarve tutkia rytmisektion toimintaa ja vuorovaikutuksen evoluutiota eri tyylikausina.

Scheffleriläinen rationaalisuus ja kasvatustodellisuuden monikerroksisuus : Jännitteitä ja ratkaisuja Israel Schefflerin kasvatusfilosofiassa

The study is a philosophical analysis of Israel Scheffler’s philosophy of education, focusing on three crucial conceptions in his philosophy: the conception of rationality, the conception of human nature, and the conception of reality. The interrelations of these three concepts as well as their relations to educational theorizing are analysed and elaborated. A conceptual problem concerning Scheffler’s ideal of rationality derives from Scheffler’s supposition of the strong analogy between science education and moral education in terms of the ideal of rationality. This analogy is argued to be conceptually problematic, since the interconnections of rationality, objectivity, and truth, appear to differ from each other in the realms of ethics and science, given the presuppositions of ontological realism and ethical naturalism, to which Scheffler explicitly subscribes. This study considers two philosophical alternatives for solving this problem. The first alternative relates the analogy to the normative concept of personhood deriving from the teleological understanding of human nature. Nevertheless, this position turns out to be problematic for Scheffler, since he rejects all teleological thinking in his philosophy. The problem can be solved, as it is argued, by limiting Scheffler’s rejection of teleology – in light of his philosophical outlook on the whole – in a manner that allows a modest version of a teleological conception of human nature. The second alternative, based especially on Scheffler’s later contributions, is to suggest that reality is actually more complex and manifold than it appears to be in light of a contemporary naturalist worldview. This idea of plurealism – Scheffler’s synthesis of pluralism and realism – is represented especially in Scheffler’s contributions related to his debate with Nelson Goodman dealing with both constructivism and realism. The idea of plurealism is not only related to the ethics-science-distinction, but is more widely related to the relationship between ontological realism and the incommensurable systems of description in diverse realms of human understanding. The Scheffler-Goodman debate is also analysed in relation to the contemporary constructivism-realism debate in educational philosophy. In terms of educational questions, Scheffler’s plurealism is argued as offering a fruitful perspective. Scheffler’s philosophy of education can be interpreted as searching for solutions to the problems deriving from the tension between the tradition of analytical philosophy and the complexity and multiplicity of educational reality. The complexity of reality combined with the supposition of the limitedness of human knowledge does not lead Scheffler to relativism or particularism, but, in contrast, Schefflerian formulations of rationality and objectivity preserve the possibility for critical inquiry in all realms of educational reality. In light of this study, Scheffler’s philosophy of education provides an exceptional example of combining ontological realism, epistemological fallibilism, and the defence of the ideal of rationality, combined with a wide-ranging understanding of educational reality.

Meeting of the Joint Distribution Committee and the Executive Committee of the American Jewish Relief Committee 1918 in New York

Reproduction of a painting of a meeting of the Joint Distribution Committee (representing the American Jewish Relief Committee, the Central Rellief Committee and the People's Relief Committee) and the Executive Committee of the American Jewish Relief Committee, with chairman Felix Warburg, secretary Albert Lucas, stenographer Mrs. F. Friedman, executive director Boris Bogen, comptroller Harriet Lowenstein, associate treasurer Paul Baerwald and treasurer Arthur Lehman; Office of Mr. Felix M. Warburg, 52 William Street, New York

Freddy Godshaw (Gottschalk) sailing with his friend Peter Zander at a camp shortly after Freddy left Germany; England.

Left: Freddy Godshaw (Gottschalk); right: Peter Zander

Freddy Godshaw (Gottschalk) with his friend Peter Zander celebrating their shared birthday; Cellerina, Switzerland.

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Freddy Godshaw (Gottschalk) (far left) on Pfingsten (Pentacost) with two unidentified friends who perished in the Holocaust. Portraits Children

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Studio portrait of Sarah-Bertha Klarenmeyer nee Meyerhof called Spatz Portrait Women

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Ilse and Rudolph Gottschalk; Hannover, Germany.

Photograph taken shortly before they left Hannover for England on the Kindertransport

Portrait of the six Gottschalk children Walter, Ursula, Freddy, Hal, Elizabeth and Kurt in garden; Hannover, Germany. Portraits Children

Front row from left to right: Walter, Ursula, and Freddy; back row from left to right: Hal, Elizabeth, and Kurt Godshaw; picture was probably taken in their backyard on Seelhorststrasse in Hannover, Germany

Portrait of the six Gottschalk children Walter, Ursula, Freddy, Hal, Elizabeth and Kurt in garden; Hannover, Germany. Portraits children

Front row from left to right: Walter, Ursula, and Freddy; back row from left to right: Hal, Elizabeth, and Kurt Godshaw; picture was probably taken in their backyard on Seelhorststrasse in Hannover, Germany