Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

Associação entre a apresentação fenotípica e os indicadores de prognóstico em gatos com cardiomiopatia hipertrófica

Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina Veterinária

A marginália como imagem transgressiva: Ligações entre a página medieval e o graffiti contemporâneo

Propõe-se uma reflexão sobre imagens que habitam a margem enquanto lugar menor ou secundário de representação. Este trabalho parte de exemplos encontrados em manuscritos medievais e em graffitis contemporâneos e centra-se nas relações que estas imagens marginais (marginália) estabelecem com o texto central e oficial, tratando-se do texto escrito medievo ou da própria cidade contemporânea. Consideramos que a marginália tende a transgredir esse texto oficial, questionando a sua autoridade e imutabilidade através de uma expansão ou mesmo inversão das suas significações. Nestes fenómenos, a paródia e o humor desempenham um papel relevante. No entanto, a transgressividade da marginália surge como ambígua, facto decorrente da indefinição própria da imagem e da margem onde se inscreve. ABSTRACT: The dissertation explores the issue of images that inhabit the margin as a minor or secondary place of representation. Using examples from medieval manuscripts and contemporary graffiti’s, this work focuses on the connections established between this marginal imagery (marginalia) and the official and central 'text ', whether a written medieval one or one relating more closely with our experience of the contemporary city. lt is considered that marginalia tend to transgress this official text by questioning its authority and immutability through an expansion or even inversion of its original meaning. Parody and humor often play a part in these phenomena. However, the described transgression is filled with ambiguity, which finds its origins within the indefiniteness of the image and the margin where it is inscribed.

Evaluación de pollos camperos en producción intensiva y semi-intensiva con suplementación de extracto de quillaja y residuos de hortalizas

En la presente investigación se evaluó: la ganancia diaria de peso, consumo semanal, índice de productividad, mortalidad, conversión alimenticia, costo por kg de carne, pigmentación en tarsos, porcentaje de grasa y el efecto del extracto de quillaja como coccidiostato, bajo dos sistemas de crianza, intensiva y semi-intensiva. El extracto de quillaja fue utilizado al 0,1% de inclusión en el alimento. La investigación se llevó a cabo en la provincia del Azuay, cantón Cuenca, parroquia San Joaquín, sector Balzay Bajo. Se utilizaron 300 pollitos camperos de la estirpe Hubbard variedad redbro S de 1 día de edad. Las aves se distribuyeron de forma aleatoria en un diseño de bloques al azar con 3 tratamientos, cada uno con 5 repeticiones y con 20 pollitos por unidad experimental. Los tratamientos fueron: T1: testigo, aves alojadas en sistema intensivo; T2: aves alojadas en sistema intensivo, más una dieta modificada que consistía en la adición de extracto de quillaja al 0,1%; T3: sistema semi-intensivo con la misma dieta del T2, las aves de este tratamiento a partir del día 28 de edad tuvieron acceso a un área verde delimitada, la cual poseía una mezcla forrajera de raigrás-alfalfa y además se adicionaron a su alimentación residuos de hortalizas propias de la zona. La investigación duró 56 días, no se evidenciaron diferencias significativas en ganancia diaria de peso, índice de productividad, índice de conversión, costo por kg de carne y porcentaje de grasa (p>0,05), mientras que consumo semanal y mortalidad, mostraron diferencias significativas (p<0,05). En las demás variables se evidenció mejor intensidad de pigmentación en T3 (p<0,05), mientras que en la infestación por coccidios no se observó diferencia entre tratamientos (p>0,05), lo que indica que la aplicación de extracto de quillaja tuvo un efecto similar al programa anticoccidial utilizado en T1

POPLAR GENE EXPRESSION DATA ANALYSIS PIPELINES

Analyzing large-scale gene expression data is a labor-intensive and time-consuming process. To make data analysis easier, we developed a set of pipelines for rapid processing and analysis poplar gene expression data for knowledge discovery. Of all pipelines developed, differentially expressed genes (DEGs) pipeline is the one designed to identify biologically important genes that are differentially expressed in one of multiple time points for conditions. Pathway analysis pipeline was designed to identify the differentially expression metabolic pathways. Protein domain enrichment pipeline can identify the enriched protein domains present in the DEGs. Finally, Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis pipeline was developed to identify the enriched GO terms in the DEGs. Our pipeline tools can analyze both microarray gene data and high-throughput gene data. These two types of data are obtained by two different technologies. A microarray technology is to measure gene expression levels via microarray chips, a collection of microscopic DNA spots attached to a solid (glass) surface, whereas high throughput sequencing, also called as the next-generation sequencing, is a new technology to measure gene expression levels by directly sequencing mRNAs, and obtaining each mRNA’s copy numbers in cells or tissues. We also developed a web portal (http://sys.bio.mtu.edu/) to make all pipelines available to public to facilitate users to analyze their gene expression data. In addition to the analyses mentioned above, it can also perform GO hierarchy analysis, i.e. construct GO trees using a list of GO terms as an input.

Sintaxis del discurso en Dt 4, 1-40

Dt 4, 1-40 it a Biblical text particularly relevant, both for its location and sense within the Deuteronomy book, as well as for its relation with the overall Deuteronomist literature. However, we do not handle in-depth and extensive studies of this text, with exception of the works published by G. Braulik516, D. Knapp517 and K. Holter518, and other exploratory studies much thoroughly investigated, as well as small monographic ones specified in a particular matter. On the other hand, the investigation of the text has been focused mainly around the historical and theological analysis of it, with the purpose to determine the time in which the text was introduced in the total of the book, as well as to weight the significance of the different stratum of the text, its sources... For this reason, other medium of approach to the text has been left aside, or had been used only as instruments to be served to the main purpose of this study. This has been for instance the study of the literary analysis. Nevertheless, during these last years, the literary investigation of the biblical texts (linguistics, narrative, rhetoric, comparative literature...) has gained boom, and had allowed a great appreciation of these texts, overall its historical or theological relevance. Dt 4, 1-40 has been benefit from all of it. The studies dedicated to the literary analysis of Dt 4, 1-40 show considerable patterns on the ways they had been carried. We have analysed them from the syntax and narrative points of view, fields very little investigated up to now. We believe it is necessary to study the text from these two perspectives to appreciate the wealth of this literary composition beyond the topics covered on it, and to contribute this way to a deep investigation of such a significant text in shape and content for the present Biblical Philology. The final objective of our study it is to arrive to a full comprehension of the thematic and literary unity of the text through its syntactic and narrative analysis, and, at the same time, to determine the mutual and necessary relationship that exist between one to another in this line of investigation...

Reforestation challenges in Scandinavia

In the keynote, major reforestation challenges in Scandinavia will be highlighted. The following countries make up Scandinavia: Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. For Iceland, with only a forest cover of 2%, a major reforestation challenge is the deforestation and overgrazing in combination with land degradation and extensive soil erosion. The challenges include the conflicts with livestock farmers. For centuries the commons were used for sheep and horse grazing. However, more and more of farmer grazing land have been fenced up, allowing the regeneration of birch and plantations of other species to increase. With a forest cover of 37% and 69% respectively, for decades a major reforestation challenge in Norway and Sweden has been the risk of seedling damages from the pine weevil. Unprotected seedlings can have a survival rate of less than 25% after being planted. Pine weevils feed on the bark of planted young seedlings at regeneration sites. If the seedling is girdled, it will not survive. In Sweden, and soon in Norway, pesticides have been forbidden. In the keynote, new methods and technology will be presented based on non-chemical protection. In Finland, with a forest cover of 75%, a major reforestation challenge is linked to the forest structure. The structure of Finnish forestry includes many private forests in combination with small regeneration sites. This implies a situation where logistics and methods for lifting and field storage provide a major challenge in order to preserve seedling quality until the planting date. Due to this situation, new logistic systems and technologies are being developed in Finland, including new seedling cultivation programs (including cultivation under Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs)) to match the access of fresh planting stock to different planting dates. In Denmark, with a forest cover of 13%, a major reforestation challenge is the possibility of future plantations based on a wide range of relevant species. For this to become a realistic option, new methods and technology have to be developed in reforestation activities that support this possibility. These methods and technology should make it possible to not be limited to certain species due to problems and restrictions during field establishment. This due to the prospect of establishing stable, healthy, and productive stands of various forest species that can be adapted to future climate change.

Konstruktive und funktionale Entwicklung eines selbststeuernden Unterflurbewässerungsverfahrens

Unter Einfluss des gegenwärtigen Klimawandels sowie dem Anstieg der Erdbevölkerung ist der effiziente Umgang mit den vorhandenen Wasserressourcen ein zentrales Thema in der Bewässerungslandwirtschaft. Die Unterflurbewässerung ist ein seit Jahrtausenden bekanntes Verfahren, bei dem das Bewässerungswasser unterhalb der Erdoberfläche aufgebracht wird und der Pflanze direkt im Wurzelraum zur Verfügung steht. Die Gefäßbewässerung ist ein selbststeuerndes Verfahren wobei die Wassergabe aus dem unglasierten Tongefäß aufgrund der im umgebenden Boden anliegenden Saugspannung erfolgt. Diese wassersparende und dem Wasserbedarf der Pflanze angepasste Bewässerungsweise ist Grundlage der Überlegungen und Untersuchungen der vorliegenden Arbeit. Ausgehend von dem Gedanken der Kombination der Vorteile der Gefäßbewässerung mit denen moderner Materialien, die eine maschinelle Installation ermöglichen und eine lange Lebensdauer aufweisen, wurde die Entwicklung einer selbststeuernden Bewässerung verfolgt. Materialrecherchen und eine Auswahl als geeignet identifizierter Materialien führten zu Laboruntersuchungen an Hand derer die Darcy-Eigenschaften (linearer Zusammenhang zwischen Volumenstrom und anliegendem Druck) überprüft wurden. Membranen erwiesen sich danach als geeignet, so dass an einer ausgewählten Schlauchmembran weitergehende Untersuchungen zum Einsatz für die Bewässerung vorgenommen wurden. Diese umfassten Langzeitlaborversuche im Boden zur Untersuchung der Entwicklung der Durchlässigkeit der Schlauchmembran über die Zeit, sowie zum Nachweis der Selbststeuerung des Systems. Mit den gewonnenen Ergebnissen war es möglich großmaßstäbliche Versuche im Gewächshaus zu realisieren, bei der die Schlauchmembran im Vergleich zur Tropfbewässerung hinsichtlich Wasserverbrauch und Ernteertrag an Standorten in Deutschland und Algerien getestet wurde. Diese Gewächshausversuche zeigten vielversprechende Ergebnisse für die Membranschlauchbewässerung mit im Vergleich zur Tropfbewässerung erhöhten Erträgen bei gleichzeitig geringerem Wasserverbrauch. Dies wurde besonders bei Verwendung von Bewässerungswasser mit erhöhtem Salzgehalt deutlich. Sorgfältiger Beachtung bedarf die Wasserqualität, da die Membranschlauchbewässerung auf Wasserverunreinigungen mit Durchflussverminderung reagiert, die sich nachteilig auf die Pflanzenentwicklung auswirkt. Aufgabe weiterer Forschungen muss es demnach sein, technische Verfahren zu entwickeln, die die langfristige Leistungsfähigkeit der Membran im Bewässerungsbetrieb aufrechterhalten.

Characterization of traditional raw materials used in housing construction in Huambo Region - Angola

The sustainability of buildings associated to the use of raw earth has motivated the studies and the development of techniques and methods in the context of this type of construction. In the region of Huambo, Angola, these construction techniques are widely used, especially for low-income families who represent the majority of the population. Much of the buildings in Huambo province are built with adobe. Due to the climate in this region, subtropical, hot and humid, with altitudes above 1000 meters and extensive river system, these buildings are particularly vulnerable to the action of water and develop, in many situations, early degradation. The Huambo Province is located in central Angola, has 36 km2 area and approximately 2 million inhabitants. This work aims to evaluate, by conducting in-situ tests, physical and mechanical properties of adobe blocks typically used in the construction of those buildings. The methodology is based on field campaigns where in-situ expeditious tests were performed in soils (smell test, color, touch, brightness, sedimentation, ball, hardness, etc.) and tests on adobes blocks made with traditional procedures, particularly in terms of durability and erodibility (erosion test at Geelong method; evaluation test of wet / dry cycle, applying the New Zealand standards 4297: 1998; 4297: 1998 and 4297: 1999). The results will contribute to the characterization of the geomaterials and methods used in construction with earth in Huambo Province, contributing to the improvement of these sustainable solutions, with a strong presence in this region. The results of this study will also contribute to the proposal of constructive solutions with improved performance characteristics, comfort, safety and durability.

Tecniche in vivo ancillari alla chirurgia di Mohs: ruolo delle nuove tecnologie nella valutazione dei margini chirurgici delle neoplasie cutanee maligne

Le neoplasie cutanee di tipo non-melanoma (non-melanoma skin cancers, NMSCs), quali il carcinoma a cellule basali (basal cell carcinoma, BCC) e il carcinoma a cellule squamose (squamous cell carcinoma, SCC) possono mostrare invasività locale e alto tasso di recidiva. La chirurgia microscopicamente controllata di Mohs (Mohs micrographic surgery, MMS) permette di eseguire una valutazione istologica immediata dei margini chirurgici delle neoplasie contestualmente alla loro escissione. Nel nostro studio abbiamo valutato del ruolo delle tecnologie in vivo (dermatoscopia e microscopia confocale a riflettanza, MCR) nella definizione dei margini preoperatori di NMSC ad alto rischio del volto e descritto la nostra esperienza con chirurgia tradizionale e MMS. Sono stati valutati 234 pazienti operati nel triennio 2019-2021: 39 con MMS e guida videodermatoscopica (Gruppo 1) e 195 con chirurgia tradizionale e guida videodermatoscopica (Gruppo 2). I pazienti operati nel periodo 2013-2018 (con MMS, Gruppo 3 (n = 241), e con chirurgia tradizionale, Gruppo 4 (n = 1086)) sono stati usati come confronto. La radicalità chirurgica è stata ottenuta nel Gruppo 1 nel 92,3% dei casi, con 1,2 steps in media di MMS (versus 1,7 nel Gruppo 3), nel Gruppo 2 nell’84,5% dei casi. La percentuale di non radicalità è stata: 7,7% nel Gruppo 1, 15,9% nel Gruppo 2, 6,2% nel Gruppo 3, 17,9% nel Gruppo 4. I tassi di recidiva sono stati: 5,1% nel Gruppo 1, 3,6% nel Gruppo 2, 4,1% nel Gruppo 3, 5,9% nel Gruppo 4, soprattutto in BCC di tipo sclerodermiforme e infiltrante. La MCR prechirurgica è stata utilizzata in 11 pazienti, con alcuni limiti nel delineare BCC di tipo sclerodermiforme e infiltrante. In conclusione, la videodermatoscopia e la MCR appaiono valide tecniche ancillari alla MMS e anche alla chirurgia tradizionale nel trattamento dei NMSCs. La MMS appare indicata soprattutto nei pazienti giovani e salvaguarda l’outcome estetico e funzionale.

High power density electrical machines with hairpin windings

Nowadays, electrical machines are seeing an ever-increasing development and extensive research is currently being dedicated to the improvement of their efficiency and torque/power density. Compared to conventional random windings, hairpin winding inherently features lower DC resistance, higher fill factor, better thermal performance, improved reliability, and an automated manufacturing process. However, several challenges need to be addressed, including electromagnetic, thermal, and manufacturing aspects. Of these, the high ohmic losses at high-frequency operations due to skin and proximity effects are the most severe, resulting in low efficiency or high-temperature values. In this work, the hairpin winding challenges were highlighted at high-frequency operations and at showing the limits of applicability of these standard approaches. Afterward, a multi-objective design optimization is proposed aiming to enhance the exploitation of the hairpin technology in electrical machines. Efficiency and volume power density are considered as main design objectives. Subsequently, a changing paradigm is made for the design of electric motors equipped with hairpin windings, where it is proven that a temperature-oriented approach would be beneficial when designing this type of pre-formed winding. Furthermore, the effect of the rotor topology on AC losses is also considered. After providing design recommendations and FE electromagnetic and thermal evaluations, experimental tests are also performed for validation purposes on a motorette wound with pre-formed conductors. The results show that operating the machine at higher temperatures could be beneficial to efficiency, particularly in high-frequency operations where AC losses are higher at low operating temperatures. The last part of the thesis focuses on comparing the main electromagnetic performance metrics for a conventional hairpin winding, wound onto a benchmark stator with a semi-closed slot opening design, and a continuous hairpin winding, in which the slot opening is open. Lastly, the adoption of semi-magnetic slot wedges is investigated to improve the overall performance of the motor.

Parametric pension reform and the intensive margin of labor supply, evidence from Colombia

We analyze the effect of a parametric reform of the fully-funded pension regime in Colombia on the intensive margin of the labor supply. We take advantage of a threshold defined by law in order to identify the causal effect using a regression discontinuity design. We find that a pension system that increases retirement age and the minimum weeks during which workers must contribute to claim pension benefits causes an increase of around 2 hours on the number of weekly worked hours; this corresponds to 4% of the average number of weekly worked hours or around 14% of a standard deviation of weekly worked hours. The effect is robust to different specifications, polynomial orders and sample sizes.

Extensive and intensive globalizations: explicating the low connectivity puzzle of U.S. cities using a city-dyad analysis

This article reports an experiment in world city network analysis focusing on city-dyads. Results are derived from an unusual principal components analysis of 27,966 city-dyads across 5 advanced producer service sectors. A 2-component solution is found that identifies different forms of globalization: extensive and intensive. The latter is characterized by very high component scores and describes the more important city-dyads focused upon London-New York (NYLON). The extensive globalization component heavily features London and New York but with each linked to less important cities. U.S. cities score relatively high on the intensive globalization component and we use this finding to explain the low connectivities of U.S. cities in previous studies of the world city network. The two components are tentatively interpreted in world-systems terms: intensive globalization is the process of core-making through city-dyads; extensive globalization is the process of linking core with non-core through city-dyads.

Hierarchic species-area relationships and the management of forest habitat islands in intensive farmland

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.

The potential of grass field margin management for enhancing beetle diversity in intensive livestock farms

1. Declining populations of UK grassland flora and fauna have been attributed to intensification of agricultural management practices, including changes in cutting, fertilizer, grazing and drainage regimes. We aimed to develop field margin management practices that could reverse declines in intensively managed grassland biodiversity that would have application in the UK and Europe. Here we focus on one aspect of grassland biodiversity, the beetles. 2. In four intensively managed livestock farms in south-west England, 10-m wide field margins in existing grasslands were managed to create seven treatments of increasing sward architectural complexity. This was achieved through combinations of inorganic (NPK) fertilizer, cattle grazing, and timing and height of cutting. To examine the potential influence of complexity on faunal diversity, beetles were identified to species level from suction samples taken between 2003 and 2005, and their assemblage structure was related to margin management, floral assemblages and sward architecture. 3. Beetle abundance, and species richness and evenness were influenced by margin management treatment and its interaction with year. Correlations with sward architecture and the percentage cover of dominant forbs and grasses were also found. Functional groups of the beetles showed different responses to the management treatments. In particular, higher proportional abundances of seed/flower-feeding guilds were found in treatments not receiving NPK fertilizer. 4. The assemblage structure was shown to respond to margin management treatments, sward architecture and the percentage cover of dominant forbs and grasses. The most extensively managed treatments were characterized by distinct successional trajectories from the control treatment. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study provides management options suitable for use within agri-environment schemes intended to improve faunal diversity associated with intensively managed lowland grasslands. Field margins receiving either no management or a single July silage cut were shown to support greater abundances and species richness of beetles, although subtler modifications of conventional management may also be beneficial, for example the absence of NPK fertilizer while maintaining grazing and silage cutting systems.