Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition—peri-urbanization—was hypothesized as being associated with ‘hot-spots’ of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely ‘hot-spots’. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk.

Retrocrural space involvement on computed tomography as a predictor of mortality and disease severity in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND Because computed tomography (CT) has advantages for visualizing the manifestation of necrosis and local complications, a series of scoring systems based on CT manifestations have been developed for assessing the clinical outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP), including the CT severity index (CTSI), modified CTSI, etc. Despite the internationally accepted CTSI having been successfully used to predict the overall mortality and disease severity of AP, recent literature has revealed the limitations of the CTSI. Using the Delphi method, we establish a new scoring system based on retrocrural space involvement (RCSI), and compared its effectiveness at evaluating the mortality and severity of AP with that of the CTSI. METHODS We reviewed CT images of 257 patients with AP taken within 3-5 days of admission in 2012. The RCSI scoring system, which includes assessment of infectious conditions involving the retrocrural space and the adjacent pleural cavity, was established using the Delphi method. Two radiologists independently assessed the RCSI and CTSI scores. The predictive points of the RCSI and CTSI scoring systems in evaluating the mortality and severity of AP were estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The RCSI score can accurately predict the mortality and disease severity. The area under the ROC curve for the RCSI versus CTSI score was 0.962±0.011 versus 0.900±0.021 for predicting the mortality, and 0.888±0.025 versus 0.904±0.020 for predicting the severity of AP. Applying ROC analysis to our data showed that a RCSI score of 4 was the best cutoff value, above which mortality could be identified. CONCLUSION The Delphi method was innovatively adopted to establish a scoring system to predict the clinical outcome of AP. The RCSI scoring system can predict the mortality of AP better than the CTSI system, and the severity of AP equally as well.

Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Pressure Ulcer-Related Pelvic Osteomyelitis: A Neglected Disease?

Background. Decubitus ulcers can become complicated by pelvic osteomyelitis. Little is known about the epidemiology of pressure ulcer-related pelvic osteomyelitis. Methods. We performed a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with pressure ulcer and pelvic osteomyelitis admitted to an academic center from 2006 to 2011. Data on clinical presentation, diagnostic evaluation, and treatment during the index admission were collected. Outcome measures included length of hospital stay and number of readmissions in the subsequent year. Results. Two hundred twenty patients were included: 163 (74%) were para/quadriplegic and 148 (67%) were male (148; 67%). Mean age was 50 (±18) years. Pelvic osteomyelitis was the primary admission diagnosis for 117 (53%). Fifty-six (26%) patients had concurrent febrile urinary tract infection. Wound cultures collected for 113 patients (51%) were notable for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (37; 33%), Streptococci (19; 17%), and Pseudomonas spp (20; 18%). Plain films were obtained in 89 (40%) patients, computed tomography scans were obtained for 81 (37%) patients, and magnetic resonance images were obtained for 40 (18%) patients. Most patients received osteomyelitis-directed antibiotics (153; 70%), 134 of 153 (88%) of which were scheduled to receive ≥6 weeks of treatment. Fifty-five (25%) patients underwent surgery during the index admission; 48 (22%) patients received a combined medical-surgical approach. One third of patients had ≥2 readmissions during the subsequent year. Patients treated with a combined approach were less likely to be readmitted than those who received antibiotics alone (0 [range, 0-4] vs 1 [0-7] readmissions; P = .04). Conclusions. This is one of the largest cohort studies of pressure ulcer-related pelvic osteomyelitis to date. Significant variations existed in diagnostic approach. Most patients received antibiotics; those treated with a combined medical-surgical approach had fewer hospital readmissions.

Cytomegalovirus infection and disease reduce 10-year cardiac allograft vasculopathy-free survival in heart transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is associated with an increased risk of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), the major limiting factor for long-term survival after heart transplantation (HTx). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of CMV infection during long-term follow-up after HTx. METHODS A retrospective, single-centre study analyzed 226 HTx recipients (mean age 45 ± 13 years, 78 % men) who underwent transplantation between January 1988 and December 2000. The incidence and risk factors for CMV infection during the first year after transplantation were studied. Risk factors for CAV were included in an analyses of CAV-free survival within 10 years post-transplant. The effect of CMV infection on the grade of CAV was analyzed. RESULTS Survival to 10 years post-transplant was higher in patients with no CMV infection (69 %) compared with patients with CMV disease (55 %; p = 0.018) or asymptomatic CMV infection (54 %; p = 0.053). CAV-free survival time was higher in patients with no CMV infection (6.7 years; 95 % CI, 6.0-7.4) compared with CMV disease (4.2 years; CI, 3.2-5.2; p < 0.001) or asymptomatic CMV infection (5.4 years; CI, 4.3-6.4; p = 0.013). In univariate analysis, recipient age, donor age, coronary artery disease (CAD), asymptomatic CMV infection and CMV disease were significantly associated with CAV-free survival. In multivariate regression analysis, CMV disease, asymptomatic CMV infection, CAD and donor age remained independent predictors of CAV-free survival at 10 years post-transplant. CONCLUSIONS CAV-free survival was significantly reduced in patients with CMV disease and asymptomatic CMV infection compared to patients without CMV infection. These findings highlight the importance of close monitoring of CMV viral load and appropriate therapeutic strategies for preventing asymptomatic CMV infection.

Tumor-induced inflammation alters neutrophil phenotype and disease progression

Neutrophils are essential to combat infectious agents but contribute to collateral inflammatory damage. Likewise, neutrophils can kill cancer cells and have been shown to promote malignant growth and metastasis through immunosuppressive functions. Two articles in a recent issue of Nature reveal new mechanisms by which tumors induce changes in neutrophil phenotype through production of inflammatory cytokines. Although the two studies report different outcomes on the effects of neutrophils on tumor growth and metastasis, they delineate novel molecular pathways influencing neutrophil phenotype that may provide new approaches to harnessing neutrophil functions in the treatment of cancer.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes in children hospitalised with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/09 virus infection – a nationwide survey by the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Group of Switzerland

OBJECTIVE To describe all patients admitted to children's hospitals in Switzerland with a diagnosis of influenza A/H1N1/09 virus infection during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and to analyse their characteristics, predictors of complications, and outcome. METHODS All patients ≤18-years-old hospitalised in eleven children's hospitals in Switzerland between June 2009 and January 2010 with a positive influenza A/H1N1/09 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from a nasopharyngeal specimen were included. RESULTS There were 326 PCR-confirmed patients of whom 189 (58%) were younger than 5 years of age, and 126 (38.7%) had one or more pre-existing medical condition. Fever (median 39.1 °C) was the most common sign (85.6% of all patients), while feeding problems (p = 0.003) and febrile seizures (p = 0.016) were significantly more frequent in children under 5 years. In 142 (43.6%) patients there was clinical suspicion of a concomitant bacterial infection, which was confirmed in 36 patients (11%). However, severe bacterial infection was observed in 4% of patients. One third (n = 108, 33.1%) of the patients were treated with oseltamivir, 64 (59.3%, or 20% overall) within 48 hours of onset of symptoms. Almost half of the patients (45.1%) received antibiotics for a median of 7 days. Twenty patients (6.1%) required intensive care, mostly for complicated pneumonia (50%) without an underlying medical condition. The median duration of hospitalisation was 2 days (range 0-39) for 304 patients. Two children (<15 months of age with underlying disease) died. CONCLUSIONS Although pandemic influenza A/H1N1/09 virus infection in children is mostly mild, it can be severe, regardless of past history or underlying disease.

Perspectives on the public health implications of global climate change and the epidemiology of vector-borne disease

Global climate change is becoming an increasing concern among the public health community. Some researchers believe the earth is rapidly undergoing changes in temperature, sea level, population movement, and extreme weather phenomenon. With these geographic, meteorological, and social changes come increased threats to human health. One of these threats is the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. The changes mentioned above are believed to contribute to increased arthropod survival, transmission, and habitation. These changes, in turn, lead to increased incidence among neighboring human populations. It is also argued that human action may play more of a role than climate change. This systematic review served to determine whether or not climate change poses a significant risk to human exposure and increased incidence of vector-borne disease. ^

Identification and characterization of virulence determinants in the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi

Borrelia burgdorferi is the etiological agent of Lyme disease, the most common tick-borne disease in the United States. Although the most frequently reported symptom is arthritis, patients can also experience severe cardiac, neurologic, and dermatologic abnormalities. The identification of virulence determinants in infectious B. burgdorferi strains has been limited by their slow growth rate, poor transformability, and general lack of genetic tools. The present study demonstrates the use of transposon mutagenesis for the identification of infectivity-related factors in infectious B. burgdorferi, examines the potential role for chemotaxis in mammalian infection, and describes the development of a novel method for the analysis of recombination events at the Ids antigenic variation locus. A pool of Himar1 mutants was isolated using an infectious B. burgdorferi clone and the transposon vector pMarGent. Clones exhibiting reduced infectivity in mice possessed insertions in virulence determinants putatively involved in host survival and dissemination. These results demonstrated the feasibility of extensive transposon mutagenesis studies for the identification of additional infectivity-related factors. mcp-5 mutants were chosen for further study to determine the role of chemotaxis during infection. Animal studies indicated that mcp-5 mutants exhibited a reduced infectivity potential, and suggested a role for mcp-5 during the early stages of infection. An in vitro phenotype for an mcp-5 mutant was not detected. Genetic complementation of an mcp-5 mutant resulted in restoration of Mcp-5 expression in the complemented clone, as demonstrated by western blotting, but the organisms were not infectious in mice. We believe this result is a consequence of differences in expression between genes located on the linear chromosome and genes present on the circular plasmid used for trans-complementation. Overall, this work implicates mcp-5 as an important determinant of mammalian infectivity. Finally, the development of a computer-assisted method for the analysis of recombination events occurring at the B. burgdorferi vls antigenic variation locus has proven highly valuable for the detailed examination of vls gene conversion. The studies described here provide evidence for the importance of chemotaxis during infection in mice and demonstrate advances in both genetic and computational approaches for the further characterization of the Lyme disease spirochete. ^

Disease risk factors and humoral antibody response to periodontal-associated pathogens: A model to evaluate periodontal disease in older adults

Periodontal diseases (PD) are infectious, inflammatory, and tissue destructive events which affect the periodontal ligament that surround and support the teeth. Periodontal diseases are the major cause of tooth loss after age 35, with gingivitis and periodontitis affecting 75% of the adult population. A select group of bacterial organisms are associated with periodontal pathogenesis. There is a direct association between oral hygiene and prevention of PD. The importance of genetic differences and host immune response capabilities in determining host, susceptibility or resistance to PD has not been established. This study examined the risk factors and serum (humoral) immune response to periodontal diseased-associated pathogens in a 55 to 80+ year old South Texas study sample with PD. This study sample was described by: age, sex, ethnicity, the socioeconomic factors marital status, income and occupation, IgG, IgA, IgM immunoglobulin status, and the autoimmune response markers rheumatoid factor (RF) and antinuclear antibody (ANA). These variables were used to determine the risk factors associated with development of PD. Serum IgG, IgA, IgM antibodies to bacterial antigens provided evidence for disease exposure.^ A causal model for PD was constructed from associations for risk factors (ethnicity, marital status, income, and occupation) with dental exam and periodontitis. The multiple correlation between PD and ethnicity, income and dental exam was significant. Hispanics of low income were least likely to have had a dental exam in the last year and most likely to have PD. The etiologic agents for PD, as evidenced by elevated humoral antibody responses, were the Gram negative microorganisms Bacteroides gingivalis, serotypes FDC381 and SUNYaBA7A1-28, and Wolinella recta. Recommendation for a PD prevention and control program are provided. ^

THE BACON CHOW STUDY: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFECTIOUS ILLNESS AND GROWTH OF INFANTS

Multiple dietary deficiencies and high rates of infectious illness are major health problems leading to malnutrition and limitation of growth of children in developing countries. Longitudinal studies which provide information on illness incidence and growth velocity are needed in order to untangle the complex interrelationship between nutrition, illness and growth. From 1967 to 1973, researchers led by Dr. Bacon Chow of the Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene undertook a quasi-experimental prospective study in Suilin Township, Taiwan to determine the effects of a nutritional supplement to the diets of pregnant and lactating women on the growth, development and resistance to disease of their offspring. This dissertation presents results from the analysis of infant morbidity and postnatal growth.^ Maternal nutritional supplementation has no apparent effect on the postnatal growth or morbidity of infants. Significant sex differences exist in growth response to illness and in illness susceptibility. Male infants have more diarrhea and upper respiratory illness. Respiratory illness is positively associated with growth rate in weight in the first semester of life. Diarrhea is significantly negatively associated with growth in length in the second semester. Small-for-date infants are more susceptible to illness in general and have a different pattern of growth response than large-for-date infants.^ Principal components analysis of illness data is shown to be an effective technique for making more precise use of ambiguous morbidity data. Multiple regression with component scores is an accurate method for estimating variance in growth rate predicted by indepenent illness variables. A model is advanced in which initial postnatal growth rate determines subsequent susceptibility to nutritional stress and infection. Initial growth rate is a function of prenatal nutrition, but is not significantly affected by maternal supplementation during gestation or lactation. Critical evaluation is made of nutritional supplementation programs which do not afford disease control.^

Effect of Biodiversity Changes in Disease Risk: Exploring Disease Emergence in a Plant-Virus System

The effect of biodiversity on the ability of parasites to infect their host and cause disease (i.e. disease risk) is a major question in pathology, which is central to understand the emergence of infectious diseases, and to develop strategies for their management. Two hypotheses, which can be considered as extremes of a continuum, relate biodiversity to disease risk: One states that biodiversity is positively correlated with disease risk (Amplification Effect), and the second predicts a negative correlation between biodiversity and disease risk (Dilution Effect). Which of them applies better to different host-parasite systems is still a source of debate, due to limited experimental or empirical data. This is especially the case for viral diseases of plants. To address this subject, we have monitored for three years the prevalence of several viruses, and virus-associated symptoms, in populations of wild pepper (chiltepin) under different levels of human management. For each population, we also measured the habitat species diversity, host plant genetic diversity and host plant density. Results indicate that disease and infection risk increased with the level of human management, which was associated with decreased species diversity and host genetic diversity, and with increased host plant density. Importantly, species diversity of the habitat was the primary predictor of disease risk for wild chiltepin populations. This changed in managed populations where host genetic diversity was the primary predictor. Host density was generally a poorer predictor of disease and infection risk. These results support the dilution effect hypothesis, and underline the relevance of different ecological factors in determining disease/infection risk in host plant populations under different levels of anthropic influence. These results are relevant for managing plant diseases and for establishing conservation policies for endangered plant species.

Epithelial antibiotic induced in states of disease

Epithelial defensins provide an active defense against the external microbial environment. We investigated the distribution and expression of this class of antimicrobial peptides in normal cattle and in animals in varying states of disease. β-defensin mRNA was found to be widely expressed in numerous exposed epithelia but was found at higher levels in tissues that are constantly exposed to and colonized by microorganisms. We observed induction in ileal mucosa during chronic infection with Mycobacterium paratuberculosis and in bronchial epithelium after acute infection with Pasteurella haemolytica. It has been proposed that expression of antimicrobial peptides is an integral component of the inflammatory response. The results reported here support this hypothesis and suggest that epithelial defensins provide a rapidly mobilized local defense against infectious organisms.

Solution structure of a 142-residue recombinant prion protein corresponding to the infectious fragment of the scrapie isoform

The scrapie prion protein (PrPSc) is the major, and possibly the only, component of the infectious prion; it is generated from the cellular isoform (PrPC) by a conformational change. N-terminal truncation of PrPSc by limited proteolysis produces a protein of ≈142 residues designated PrP 27–30, which retains infectivity. A recombinant protein (rPrP) corresponding to Syrian hamster PrP 27–30 was expressed in Escherichia coli and purified. After refolding rPrP into an α-helical form resembling PrPC, the structure was solved by multidimensional heteronuclear NMR, revealing many structural features of rPrP that were not found in two shorter PrP fragments studied previously. Extensive side-chain interactions for residues 113–125 characterize a hydrophobic cluster, which packs against an irregular β-sheet, whereas residues 90–112 exhibit little defined structure. Although identifiable secondary structure is largely lacking in the N terminus of rPrP, paradoxically this N terminus increases the amount of secondary structure in the remainder of rPrP. The surface of a long helix (residues 200–227) and a structured loop (residues 165–171) form a discontinuous epitope for binding of a protein that facilitates PrPSc formation. Polymorphic residues within this epitope seem to modulate susceptibility of sheep and humans to prion disease. Conformational heterogeneity of rPrP at the N terminus may be key to the transformation of PrPC into PrPSc, whereas the discontinuous epitope near the C terminus controls this transition.

Neonatal gene transfer leads to widespread correction of pathology in a murine model of lysosomal storage disease

For many inborn errors of metabolism, early treatment is critical to prevent long-term developmental sequelae. We have used a gene-therapy approach to demonstrate this concept in a murine model of mucopolysaccharidosis type VII (MPS VII). Newborn MPS VII mice received a single intravenous injection with 5.4 × 106 infectious units of recombinant adeno-associated virus encoding the human β-glucuronidase (GUSB) cDNA. Therapeutic levels of GUSB expression were achieved by 1 week of age in liver, heart, lung, spleen, kidney, brain, and retina. GUSB expression persisted in most organs for the 16-week duration of the study at levels sufficient to either reduce or prevent completely lysosomal storage. Of particular significance, neurons, microglia, and meninges of the central nervous system were virtually cleared of disease. In addition, neonatal treatment of MPS VII mice provided access to the central nervous system via an intravenous route, avoiding a more invasive procedure later in life. These data suggest that gene transfer mediated by adeno-associated virus can achieve therapeutically relevant levels of enzyme very early in life and that the rapid growth and differentiation of tissues does not limit long-term expression.