Demographic Modelling of Human Population Growth

This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

Critical-point yield model to estimate yield damage caused by Cercospora zea-maydis in corn

A model to estimate damage caused by gray leaf spot of corn (Cercospora zea-maydis) was developed from experimental field data gathered during the summer seasons of 2000/01 and during the second crop season [January-seedtime] of 2001, in the southwest of Goiás state. Three corn hybrids were grown over two seasons and on two sites, resulting in 12 experimental plots. A disease intensity gradient (lesions per leaf) was generated through application, three times over the season, of five different doses of the fungicide propiconazol. From tasseling onward, disease intensity on the ear leaf (El), and El - 1, El - 2, El + 1, and El + 2, was evaluated weekly. A manual harvest at the physiological ripening stage was followed by grain drying and cleaning. Finally, grain yield in kg.ha-1 was estimated. Regression analysis, performed between grain yield and all combinations of the number of lesions on each leaf type, generated thirty linear equations representing the damage function. To estimate losses caused by different disease intensities at different corn growth stages, these models should first be validated. Damage coefficients may be used in determining the economic damage threshold.

Effects of Foreign Direct Investment inflows on growth in Central and Eastern European transition countries

The aim of this master’s thesis is to analyze the effects of Foreign Direct Investments on growth in selected Central and Eastern European transition countries. The theoretical part of this thesis, introduces growth theories and how FDI is covered in those theories. In addition, the results from previous studies, which have studied FDI’s effect on growth, are presented in this master’s thesis. This work introduces also the economical progress during the transition period in selected countries. In the empirical part’s regression model, it will be searched for the direct effect of FDI on growth with panel data collected from nine transition countries.

Critical-point model to estimate yield loss caused by Asian soybean rust

ABSTRACTA model to estimate yield loss caused by Asian soybean rust (ASR) (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) was developed by collecting data from field experiments during the growing seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11, in Passo Fundo, RS. The disease intensity gradient, evaluated in the phenological stages R5.3, R5.4 and R5.5 based on leaflet incidence (LI) and number of uredinium and lesions/cm2, was generated by applying azoxystrobin 60 g a.i/ha + cyproconazole 24 g a.i/ha + 0.5% of the adjuvant Nimbus. The first application occurred when LI = 25% and the remaining ones at 10, 15, 20 and 25-day intervals. Harvest occurred at physiological maturity and was followed by grain drying and cleaning. Regression analysis between the grain yield and the disease intensity assessment criteria generated 56 linear equations of the yield loss function. The greatest loss was observed in the earliest growth stage, and yield loss coefficients ranged from 3.41 to 9.02 kg/ha for each 1% LI for leaflet incidence, from 13.34 to 127.4 kg/ha/1 lesion/cm2 for lesion density and from 5.53 to 110.0 kg/ha/1 uredinium/cm2 for uredinium density.

Growth through internationalization of Russian SMEs in Finland

The study examines Russian SMEs motives, needs, prospects and constrains to enter Finland through Lappeenranta. Russian entrepreneurship is a young phenomenon in Finland. The present research becomes a first guide in understanding of Russian SMEs’ capabilities for establishing their subsidiaries in Finland. The extensive model of different theoretical approaches was created for evaluating Russian SMEs growth and internationalization opportunities. The findings of the research indicated that Russian growing companies chose the internationalization to continue their development. Many Finland’ positive conditions were evaluated as important for the Russian entrepreneurship. Finland was the first European country of the expansion to the European Union, for the Russian SMEs established the subsidiaries in Lappeenranta. Their motives for entering Finland were usually based on market and resource views. Generally, the Russian SMEs establish a new company in Finland only when they have sufficient capabilities and resources for internationalization. Entering Finland the Russian firms make better the allocation of their natural, financial and human resources.

Use data from permanent sampling points in growth and yield modeling

This study was carried to evaluate the efficiency of the Bitterlich method in growth and yield modeling of the even-aged Eucalyptus stands. 25 plots were setup in Eucalyptus grandis cropped under a high bole system in the Central Western Region of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The sampling points were setup in the center of each plot. The data of four annual mesurements were colleted and used to adjust the three model types using the age, the site index and the basal area as independent variables. The growths models were fitted for volume and mass of trees. The efficiency of the Bitterlich method was confirmed for generating the data for growth and yield modeling.

Measurement and simulation of solar radiation availability in relation to the growth of coffee plants in an agroforestry system with rubber trees

Solar radiation is an important factor for plant growth, being its availability to understory crops strongly modified by trees in an Agroforestry System (AFS). Coffee trees (Coffea arabica - cv. Obatã IAC 1669-20) were planted at a 3.4 x 0.9 m spacing inside and aside rows of monocrops of 12 year-old rubber trees (Hevea spp.), in Piracicaba-SP, Brazil (22º42'30" S, 47º38'00" W - altitude: 546m). One-year-old coffee plants exposed to 25; 30; 35; 40; 45; 80; 90; 95 and 100% of the total solar radiation were evaluated according to its biophysical parameters of solar radiation interception and capture. The Goudriaan (1977) adapted by Bernardes et al. (1998) model for radiation attenuation fit well to the measured data. Coffee plants tolerate a decrease in solar radiation availability to 50% without undergoing a reduction on growth and LAI, which was approximately 2m².m-2 under this condition. Further reductions on the availability of solar radiation caused a reduction in LAI (1.5m².m-2), thus poor land cover and solar radiation interception, resulting in growth reduction.

Determination of total accumulated rainfall, global radiation, evapotranspiration and degree-days originated from the ECMWF model to sugar cane crop

The climate variability between the growth and harvesting of sugar cane is very important because it directly affects yield. The MODIS sensor has characteristics like spatial and temporal resolution that can be applied to monitoring of vegetative vigor variability in the land surface and then, temporal profiles generation. Agro meteorological data from ECMWF model are free and easy to access and have a good representation of reality. In this study, we used the period between sugar cane growth and harvest in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from temporal profiles selecting of NDVI behavior. For each period the precipitation, evapotranspiration, global radiation, length (days) and degree-days were accumulated. The periods were presented in a map format on MODIS spatial resolution of 250 meters. The results showed the spatial variability of climate variables and the relationship to the reality presented by official data.

Mathematical modeling applied to the growth of tilapia in net cages in the sub middle of the São Francisco river

This study aimed to apply mathematical models to the growth of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) reared in net cages in the lower São Francisco basin and choose the model(s) that best represents the conditions of rearing for the region. Nonlinear models of Brody, Bertalanffy, Logistic, Gompertz, and Richards were tested. The models were adjusted to the series of weight for age according to the methods of Gauss, Newton, Gradiente and Marquardt. It was used the procedure "NLIN" of the System SAS® (2003) to obtain estimates of the parameters from the available data. The best adjustment of the data were performed by the Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Logistic models which are equivalent to explain the growth of the animals up to 270 days of rearing. From the commercial point of view, it is recommended that commercialization of tilapia from at least 600 g, which is estimated in the Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Logistic models for creating over 183, 181 and 184 days, and up to 1 Kg of mass , it is suggested the suspension of the rearing up to 244, 244 and 243 days, respectively.

Repair of segmental bone defects with fiber-reinforced composite: a study of material development and an animal model on rabbits

The Repair of segmental defects in load-bearing long bones is a challenging task because of the diversity of the load affecting the area; axial, bending, shearing and torsional forces all come together to test the stability/integrity of the bone. The natural biomechanical requirements for bone restorative materials include strength to withstand heavy loads, and adaptivity to conform into a biological environment without disturbing or damaging it. Fiber-reinforced composite (FRC) materials have shown promise, as metals and ceramics have been too rigid, and polymers alone are lacking in strength which is needed for restoration. The versatility of the fiber-reinforced composites also allows tailoring of the composite to meet the multitude of bone properties in the skeleton. The attachment and incorporation of a bone substitute to bone has been advanced by different surface modification methods. Most often this is achieved by the creation of surface texture, which allows bone growth, onto the substitute, creating a mechanical interlocking. Another method is to alter the chemical properties of the surface to create bonding with the bone – for example with a hydroxyapatite (HA) or a bioactive glass (BG) coating. A novel fiber-reinforced composite implant material with a porous surface was developed for bone substitution purposes in load-bearing applications. The material’s biomechanical properties were tailored with unidirectional fiber reinforcement to match the strength of cortical bone. To advance bone growth onto the material, an optimal surface porosity was created by a dissolution process, and an addition of bioactive glass to the material was explored. The effects of dissolution and orientation of the fiber reinforcement were also evaluated for bone-bonding purposes. The Biological response to the implant material was evaluated in a cell culture study to assure the safety of the materials combined. To test the material’s properties in a clinical setting, an animal model was used. A critical-size bone defect in a rabbit’s tibia was used to test the material in a load-bearing application, with short- and long-term follow-up, and a histological evaluation of the incorporation to the host bone. The biomechanical results of the study showed that the material is durable and the tailoring of the properties can be reproduced reliably. The Biological response - ex vivo - to the created surface structure favours the attachment and growth of bone cells, with the additional benefit of bioactive glass appearing on the surface. No toxic reactions to possible agents leaching from the material could be detected in the cell culture study when compared to a nontoxic control material. The mechanical interlocking was enhanced - as expected - with the porosity, whereas the reinforcing fibers protruding from the surface of the implant gave additional strength when tested in a bone-bonding model. Animal experiments verified that the material is capable of withstanding load-bearing conditions in prolonged use without breaking of the material or creating stress shielding effects to the host bone. A Histological examination verified the enhanced incorporation to host bone with an abundance of bone growth onto and over the material. This was achieved with minimal tissue reactions to a foreign body. An FRC implant with surface porosity displays potential in the field of reconstructive surgery, especially regarding large bone defects with high demands on strength and shape retention in load-bearing areas or flat bones such as facial / cranial bones. The benefits of modifying the strength of the material and adjusting the surface properties with fiber reinforcement and bone-bonding additives to meet the requirements of different bone qualities are still to be fully discovered.

The Role of Universities in the Triple Helix model of innovation management within the biotechnology industry, Case example: Turku Science Park Network

Biotechnology has been recognized as the key strategic technology for industrial growth. The industry is heavily dependent on basic research. Finland continues to rank in the top 10 of Europe's most innovative countries in terms of tax-policy, education system, infrastructure and the number of patents issued. Regardless of the excellent statistical results, the output of this innovativeness is below acceptable. Research on the issues hindering the output creation has already been done and the identifiable weaknesses in the Finland's National Innovation system are the non-existent growth of entrepreneurship and the missing internationalization. Finland is proven to have all the enablers of the innovation policy tools, but is lacking the incentives and rewards to push the enablers, such as knowledge and human capital, forward. Science Parks are the biggest operator in research institutes in the Finnish Science and Technology system. They exist with the purpose of speeding up the commercialization process of biotechnology innovations which usually include technological uncertainty, technical inexperience, business inexperience and high technology cost. Innovation management only internally is a rather historic approach, current trend drives towards open innovation model with strong triple helix linkages. The evident problems in the innovation management within the biotechnology industry are examined through a case study approach including analysis of the semi-structured interviews which included biotechnology and business expertise from Turku School of Economics. The results from the interviews supported the theoretical implications as well as conclusions derived from the pilot survey, which focused on the companies inside Turku Science Park network. One major issue that the Finland's National innovation system is struggling with is the fact that it is technology driven, not business pulled. Another problem is the university evaluation scale which focuses more on number of graduates and short-term factors, when it should put more emphasis on the cooperation success in the long-term, such as the triple helix connections with interaction and knowledge distribution. The results of this thesis indicated that there is indeed requirement for some structural changes in the Finland's National innovation system and innovation policy in order to generate successful biotechnology companies and innovation output. There is lack of joint output and scales of success, lack of people with experience, lack of language skills, lack of business knowledge and lack of growth companies.

Identification of research trends in the field of separation processes. Application of epidemiological model, citation analysis, text mining, and technical analysis of the financial markets

Choice of industrial development options and the relevant allocation of the research funds become more and more difficult because of the increasing R&D costs and pressure for shorter development period. Forecast of the research progress is based on the analysis of the publications activity in the field of interest as well as on the dynamics of its change. Moreover, allocation of funds is hindered by exponential growth in the number of publications and patents. Thematic clusters become more and more difficult to identify, and their evolution hard to follow. The existing approaches of research field structuring and identification of its development are very limited. They do not identify the thematic clusters with adequate precision while the identified trends are often ambiguous. Therefore, there is a clear need to develop methods and tools, which are able to identify developing fields of research. The main objective of this Thesis is to develop tools and methods helping in the identification of the promising research topics in the field of separation processes. Two structuring methods as well as three approaches for identification of the development trends have been proposed. The proposed methods have been applied to the analysis of the research on distillation and filtration. The results show that the developed methods are universal and could be used to study of the various fields of research. The identified thematic clusters and the forecasted trends of their development have been confirmed in almost all tested cases. It proves the universality of the proposed methods. The results allow for identification of the fast-growing scientific fields as well as the topics characterized by stagnant or diminishing research activity.

The Effects of Fibroblast Growth Factor 8b on Reproductive Organs and Prostate Tumorigenesis

Fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) are involved in the development and homeostasis of the prostate and other reproductive organs. FGF signaling is altered in prostate cancer. Fibroblast growth factor 8 (FGF8) is a mitogenic growth factor and its expression is elevated in prostate cancer and in premalignant prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) lesions. FGF8b is the most transforming isoform of FGF8. Experimental models show that FGF8b promotes several phases of prostate tumorigenesis - including cancer initiation, tumor growth, angiogenesis, invasion and development of bone metastasis. The mechanisms activated by FGF8b in the prostate are unclear. In the present study, to examine the tumorigenic effects of FGF8b on the prostate and other FGF8b expressing organs, an FGF8b transgenic (TG) mouse model was generated. The effect of estrogen receptor beta (ERβ) deficiency on FGF8binduced prostate tumorigenesis was studied by breeding FGF8b-TG mice with ERβ knockout mice (BERKOFVB). Overexpression of FGF8b caused progressive histological and morphological changes in the prostate, epididymis and testis of FGF8b-TG-mice. In the prostate, hyperplastic, preneoplastic and neoplastic changes, including mouse PIN (mPIN) lesions, adenocarcinomas, sarcomas and carcinosarcomas were present in the epithelium and stroma. In the epididymis, a highly cancer-resistant tissue, the epithelium contained dysplasias and the stroma had neoplasias and hyperplasias with atypical cells. Besides similar histological changes in the prostate and epididymis, overexpression of FGF8b induced similar changes in the expression of genes such as osteopontin (Spp1), connective tissue growth factor (Ctgf) and FGF receptors (Fgfrs) in these two tissues. In the testes of the FGF8b-TG mice, the seminiferous epithelium was frequently degenerative and the number of spermatids was decreased. A portion of the FGF8b-TG male mice was infertile. Deficiency of ERβ did not accelerate prostate tumorigenesis in the FGF8b-TG mice, but increased significantly the frequency of mucinous metaplasia and slightly the frequency of inflammation in the prostate. This suggests putative differentiation promoting and anti-inflammatory roles for ERβ. In summary, these results underscore the importance of FGF signaling in male reproductive organs and provide novel evidence for a role of FGF8b in stromal activation and prostate tumorigenesis.

Effects of bromocriptine on serum prolactin levels, pituitary weight and immunoreactive prolactin cells in estradiol-treated ovariectomized rats: an experimental model of estrogen-dependent hyperprolactinemia

The present study was designed to assess the effects of bromocriptine, a dopamine agonist, on pituitary wet weight, number of immunoreactive prolactin cells and serum prolactin concentrations in estradiol-treated rats. Ovariectomized Wistar rats were injected subcutaneously with sunflower oil vehicle or estradiol valerate (50 or 300 µg rat-1 week-1) for 2, 4 or 10 weeks. Bromocriptine (0.2 or 0.6 mg rat-1 day-1) was injected daily during the last 5 or 12 days of estrogen treatment. Data were compared with those obtained for intact control rats. Administration of both doses of estrogen increased serum prolactin levels. No difference in the number of prolactin cells in rats treated with 50 µg estradiol valerate was observed compared to intact adult animals. In contrast, rats treated with 300 µg estradiol valerate showed a significant increase in the number of prolactin cells (P<0.05). Therefore, the increase in serum prolactin levels observed in rats treated with 50 µg estradiol valerate, in the absence of morphological changes in the pituitary cells, suggests a "functional" estrogen-induced hyperprolactinemia. Bromocriptine decreased prolactin levels in all estrogen-treated rats. The administration of this drug to rats previously treated with 300 µg estradiol valerate also resulted in a significant decrease in pituitary weight and number of prolactin cells when compared to the group treated with estradiol alone. The general antiprolactinemic and antiproliferative pituitary effects of bromocriptine treatment reported here validate the experimental model of estrogen-induced hyperprolactinemic rats

Gap junction modulation by extracellular signaling molecules: the thymus model

Gap junctions are intercellular channels which connect adjacent cells and allow direct exchange of molecules of low molecular weight between them. Such a communication has been described as fundamental in many systems due to its importance in coordination, proliferation and differentiation. Recently, it has been shown that gap junctional intercellular communication (GJIC) can be modulated by several extracellular soluble factors such as classical hormones, neurotransmitters, interleukins, growth factors and some paracrine substances. Herein, we discuss some aspects of the general modulation of GJIC by extracellular messenger molecules and more particularly the regulation of such communication in the thymus gland. Additionally, we discuss recent data concerning the study of different neuropeptides and hormones in the modulation of GJIC in thymic epithelial cells. We also suggest that the thymus may be viewed as a model to study the modulation of gap junction communication by different extracellular messengers involved in non-classical circuits, since this organ is under bidirectional neuroimmunoendocrine control.