Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Will attracting the creative class boost economic growth in old industrial regions? A case study of Scotland

Attracting in-migration of the creative class has been argued by Florida (2002) to be a route to higher economic growth in the era of the knowledge economy. This paper critically evaluates this proposition in relation to old industrial regions using the example of Scotland. The paper presents an assessment of, in the first instance, to what extent there is a shortage of skilled, talented and entrepreneurial individuals and, in the second instance, whether a talent attraction strategy alone can hope to attract such people to Scotland. It is proposed that for most migrants the availability of appropriate economic opportunities is a prerequisite for mobility. However, despite uncertain evidence that place attractiveness is a catalyst to mobility among the so-called creative class, this is not a reason for dismissing talent attraction programmes. Instead it is argued that talent attraction programmes have the potential to contribute to old industrial economies, but their success will be greatest when talent attraction is carefully targeted and based on economic realities rather than the marketing of ethereal conceptions of place attractiveness.

Participation of 8-12 year old children with cerebral palsy: a cross-sectional European Survey

Objectives
To evaluate how involvement in life situations (participation) in children with cerebral palsy varies with type and severity of impairment and to investigate geographical variation in participation.

Design
Cross sectional study. Trained interviewers visited parents of children with cerebral palsy; multilevel multivariable regression related participation to impairments, pain, and sociodemographic characteristics.

Setting
Eight European regions with population registers of children with cerebral palsy; one further region recruited children from multiple sources.

Participants
1174 children aged 8-12 with cerebral palsy randomly selected from the population registers, 743 (63%) joined in the study; the further region recruited 75 children.

Main outcome measure
Children’s participation assessed by the Life-H questionnaire covering 10 main areas of daily life. Scoring ignored adaptations or assistance required for participation.

Results
Children with pain and those with more severely impaired walking, fine motor skills, communication, and intellectual abilities had lower participation across most domains. Type of cerebral palsy and problems with feeding and vision were associated with lower participation for specific domains, but the sociodemographic factors examined were not. Impairment and pain accounted for up to a sixth of the variation in participation. Participation on all domains varied substantially between regions: children in east Denmark had consistently higher participation than children in other regions. For most participation domains, about a third of the unexplained variation could be ascribed to variation between regions and about two thirds to variation between individuals.

Conclusions
Participation in children with cerebral palsy should be assessed in clinical practice to guide intervention and assess its effect. Pain should be carefully assessed. Some European countries facilitate participation better than others, implying some countries could make better provision. Legislation and regulation should be directed to ensuring this happens.

Phylogeographic analysis of North American populations of the parasitic herbaceous plant Monotropa hypopitys reveals a complex history of range expansion from multiple late glacial refugia

Aim We carried out a phylogeographic study across the range of the herbaceous plant species Monotropa hypopitys L. in North America to determine whether its current disjunct distribution is due to recolonization from separate eastern and western refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Location North America: Pacific Northwest and north-eastern USA/south-eastern Canada. Methods Palaeodistribution modelling was carried out to determine suitable climatic regions for M. hypopitys at the LGM. We analysed between 155 and 176 individuals from 39 locations spanning the species' entire range in North America. Sequence data were obtained for the chloroplast rps2 gene (n=168) and for the nuclear ITS region (n=158). Individuals were also genotyped for eight microsatellite loci (n=176). Interpolation of diversity values was used to visualize the range-wide distribution of genetic diversity for each of the three marker classes. Minimum spanning networks were constructed showing the relationships between the rps2 and ITS haplotypes, and the geographical distributions of these haplotypes were plotted. The numbers of genetic clusters based on the microsatellite data were estimated using Bayesian clustering approaches. Results The palaeodistribution modelling indicated suitable climate envelopes for M. hypopitys at the LGM in both the Pacific Northwest and south-eastern USA. High levels of genetic diversity and endemic haplotypes were found in Oregon, the Alexander Archipelago, Wisconsin, and in the south-eastern part of the species' distribution range. Main conclusions Our results suggest a complex recolonization history for M. hypopitys in North America, involving persistence in separate eastern and western refugia. A generally high degree of congruence between the different marker classes analysed indicated the presence of multiple refugia, with at least two refugia in each area. In the west, putative refugia were identified in Oregon and the Alexander Archipelago, whereas eastern refugia may have been located in the southern part of the species' current distribution, as well as in the 'Driftless Area'. These findings are in contrast to a previous study on the related species Orthilia secunda, which has a similar disjunct distribution to M. hypopitys, but which appears to have recolonized solely from western refugia. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Creating advantage in peripheral regions: The role of publicly funded R&D centres

Regional investment in R&D, technological development and innovation is perceived as being strongly associated with productivity, growth and sustained international competitiveness. One policy instrument by which policy makers have attempted to create regional advantage has been the establishment of publicly funded research centres (PRCs). In this paper we develop a logic model for this type of regional intervention and examine the outputs and longer-term outcomes from a group of (18) publicly funded R&D centres. Our results suggest some positive regional impacts but also identify significant differences in terms of innovation, additionality and sustainability between university-based and company-based PRCs. University-based PRCs have higher levels of short-term additionality, demonstrate higher levels of organisational innovation but prove less sustainable. Company-based PRCs demonstrate more partial additionality in the short-term but ultimately prove more sustainable.

Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of quinolone resistance-determining regions (QRDRs) of gyrA, gyrB, parC and parE gene loci in viridans group streptococci isolated from adult patients with cystic fibrosis

This study demonstrated key resistance genes to fluroquinilones in Streptococcci isolated from sputum of people with CF. This suggests that other bacteria which are sometimes considered commensal may be a resovoir for resistance. Jse designed the study with Moore.

Business representation and the UK regions: mapping institutional change

Political devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are prompting changes in the organization of business interest representation within the devolved and decentralized territories. In this paper we seek to describe the realignment of business interest representation at the 'regional' scale, first through a detailed review of changes underway across specific business associations and representative fora, and secondly through an initial attempt to compare and 'map' the patterns of institutional change recorded in the various territories. In broad terms the overall scale, operation and degree of formalization of the new political arrangements for business representation tend broadly to reflect the established institutional and political contexts of the respective nations and regions and the level of devolution ceded to the territories. However, there are important variations in a complex process of uneven development. In the concluding section we present some initial thoughts on the nature of the changes observed in the institutional framework for business representation. A key argument is that to date such changes suggest a reconfiguration of business political activity rather than a step-change in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geographical Influences on Long-Run Development

We show that geographical factors influence long-run per capita income directly, as well as indirectly, through the quality of institutions. The direct influence of geography on per capita incomes is robust to the inclusion of a sub-Saharan Africa dummy and other tests. We obtain our results by replacing the usual instrument (settlers’ mortality (SM)) by stronger instruments for institutional quality (latitude, the share of the country in the temperate climatic zone). We also provide evidence that SM suffers from endogeneity with respect to institutional quality for early colonies, because of its dependence on nineteenth-century mortality data.

A survey of molecular line emission towards ultracompact HII regions

We have used the JCMT to survey molecular line emission towards 14 ultracompact HII regions (G5.89, G9.62, G10.30, G10.47, G12.21, G13.87, G29.96, G31.41, G34.26, G43.89, G45.12, G45.45, G45.47, and G75.78). For each source, we observed up to ten 1 GHz bands between 200 and 350 GHz, covering lines of more than 30 species including multiple transitions of CO isotopes, CH3OH, CH3CCH, CH3CN and HCOOCH3, and sulphuretted molecules. The number of transitions detected varied by a factor of 20 between sources; which were chosen following observations of high-excitation ammonia (Cesaroni et al. 1994a) and methyl cyanide (Olmi et al. 1993). In half our sample (the line-poor sources), only (CO)-O-17: (CO)-O-18, SO, (CS)-S-34 and CH3OH were detected. In the line-rich sources, we detected over 150 lines, including high excitation lines of CH3CN, HCOOCH3; C2H5CN, CH3OH, and CH3CCH. We have calculated the physical conditions of the molecular gas. To reproduce the emission from the line-rich sources requires both a hot, dense compact core and an ambient cloud consisting of less dense, cooler gas. The hot cores, which are less than 0.1 pc in size; reach densities of at least 10(8) cm(-3) and temperatures of more than 80 K. The line-poor sources can be modelled without a hot core by a 20-30 K, 10(5) cm(-3) cloud. We find no correlation between the size of the HII region and the current physical conditions in the molecular environment. A comparison with chemical models (Millar et al. 1997) confirms that grain surface chemistry is important in hot cores.