Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Introduction

Although increasing our knowledge of the properties of networks of cities is essential, these properties can be measured at the city level, and must be assessed by analyzing actor networks. The present volume focuses less on individual characteristics and more on the interactions of actors and institutions that create functional territories in which the structure of existing links constrains emerging links. Rather than basing explanations on external factors, the goal is to determine the extent to which network properties reflect spatial distributions and create local synergies at the meso level that are incorporated into global networks at the macro level where different geographical scales occur. The paper introduces the way to use the graphs structure to identify empirically relevant groups and levels that explain dynamics. It defines what could be called âeurooemulti-levelâeuro, âeurooemulti-scaleâeuro, or âeurooemultidimensionalâeuro networks in the context of urban geography. It explains how the convergence of the network multi-territoriality paradigm collaboratively formulated, and manipulated by geographers and computer scientists produced the SPANGEO project, which is exposed in this volume.

Novas estratégias organizacionais no cenário global

Diante das transformações organizacionais decorrentes dos processos de globalização e de convergência dos meios de comunicação, os países periféricos se encontram confrontados com um duplo dilema: o imperativo econômico-político de se inserir no concerto das nações mais desenvolvidas e a vontade social-cultural de preservar as suas especificidades históricas. Tratando do caso particular do Brasil, o artigo analisa algumas das estratégias possíveis de conciliação entre a dinâmica da globalização e as forças de enraizamento local e regional.

Observatório da cidadania: monitorando as políticas públicas em âmbito global

As análises e discussões teóricas sobre o atual processo de globalização têm dado ênfase aos aspectos econômicos e tecnológicos e seus impactos na vida social e cultural dos indivíduos. Contudo, experiências como a do Social Watch (Observatório da Cidadania em português, Control Ciudadano em espanhol) - uma rede mundial de grupos de cidadãos e organizações civis sem fins lucrativos criada para monitorar as ações de desenvolvimento social - mostram como as informações sobre as políticas públicas dos governos e dos organismos multilaterais podem ser agenciadas e analisadas para subsidiar o processo decisório dos atores sociais, da mesma forma que o fazem as corporações transnacionais. O Observatório da Cidadania estimula a atuação em rede e o intercâmbio de idéias e de informação sobre estratégias bem-sucedidas de combate à pobreza e da discriminação de gênero. Para publicação do seu relatório anual (em inglês, português, espanhol e italiano) e de relatórios locais, nacionais e regionais, a rede coleta, analisa e debate os dados disponíveis em fontes oficiais e alternativas, estruturando seus próprios indicadores de desenvolvimento social. Toda essa informação resulta da competência técnica acumulada por centenas de contra-especialistas no chamado terceiro setor e é veiculada tanto em papel quanto via Internet.

Technology and research in a global Networked University Digital Library (NUDL)

Digital Libraries (DLs) are extremely complex information systems that support the creation, management, distribution, and preservation of complex information resources, while allowing effective and efficient interaction among the several societies that benefit from DL content and services. In this paper, we focus on our experience facing challenges of building, maintaining, and developing the Networked University Digital Library (www.nudl.org), an extension of the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (www.ndltd.org). NUDL is a worldwide initiative that addresses making the intellectual property produced in universities more accessible, stimulating international collaboration across all disciplines. We detail technological aspects of our solutions and research activities carried out to provide powerful and enriched services for the communities served by this initiative.

On the origin of the North Pacific arcs

We present a new hypothesis that relates global plate tectonics to the formation of marginal basins, island arcs, spreading ridges and arc-shaped mountain belts around the North Pacific Ocean. According to our model, the ellipsoidal-shaped Paleogene basins of the South China Sea, Parece-Vela Basin, Shikoku Basin, Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk in addition to those of the North American Cordillera can be attributed to the change in plate convergence direction at 42 Ma between the Indoaustralian and Eurasian plates. The new direction of convergence was parallel to the eastern continental margin of Asia and resulted in widespread extension perpendicular to this margin and to the western margin of North America. Both margins form part of a circle parallel to the Indoaustralian-Eurasian direction of convergence.

Acesso à informação e identidade cultural: entre o global e o local

Apresenta o quadro teórico e metodológico da pesquisa Janelas da Cultura Local, em implementação no Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia com apoio do Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, que tem como objetivo promover, de forma participativa, ações de informação no sentido da inclusão digital. As premissas do projeto - a informação como força de transformação, a responsabilidade social da ciência da informação e a sua relação intrínseca com a tecnologia da informação - se manifestam na proposta de desenvolvimento de competências para produção e comunicação digital da informação, contribuindo para dotar os participantes de elementos de mediação entre a cultura local e a cultura global. Espera-se, com o projeto, trazer contribuição ao resgate e registro da memória cultural da comunidade envolvida na pesquisa, contribuindo, também, para elevação do Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano no município beneficiado.

Prospects of doubling global wheat yields

While an adequate supply of food can be achieved at present for the current global population, sustaining this into the future will be difficult in the face of a steadily increasing population, increased wealth and a diminishing availability of fertile land and water for agriculture. This problem will be compounded by the new uses of agricultural products, for example, as biofuels. Wheat alone provides ≥20% of the calories and the protein for the world's population, and the value and need to increase the production is recognized widely. Currently, the world average wheat yield is around 3 t/ha but there is considerable variation between countries, with region-specific factors limiting yield, each requiring individual solutions. Delivering increased yields in any situation is a complex challenge that is unlikely to be solved by single approaches and a multidisciplinary integrated approach to crop improvement is required. There are three specific major challenges: increasing yield potential, protecting yield potential, and increasing resource use efficiency to ensure sustainability. Since the green revolution, yields at the farm gate have stagnated in many countries, or are increasing at less than half the rate required to meet the projected demand. In some countries, large gains can still be achieved by improvements in agronomy, but in many others the yield gains will only be achieved by further genetic improvement. In this overview, the problems and potential solutions for increased wheat yields are discussed, in the context of specific geographic regions, with a particular emphasis on China. The importance and the prospects for improvement of individual traits are presented. It is concluded that there are opportunities for yield increase but a major challenge will be avoiding a simultaneous increase in resource requirements.

A global marine sedimentary response to the end-Permian mass extinction: Examples from southern Turkey and the western United States

The end-Permian mass extinction greatly diminished marine diversity and brought about a whole-scale restructuring of marine ecosystems; these ecosystem changes also profoundly affected the sedimentary record. Data presented here, attained through facies analyses of strata deposited during the immediate aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction (southern Turkey) and at the close of the Early Triassic (southwestern United States), in combination with a literature review, show that sedimentary systems were profoundly affected by: (1) a reduction in biotic diversity and abundance and (2) long-term environmental fluctuations that resulted from the end-Permian crisis. Lower Triassic strata display widespread microbialite and carbonate seafloor fan development and contain indicators of suppressed infaunal bioturbation such as flat-pebble conglomerates and wrinkle structures (facies considered unusual in post-Cambrian subtidal deposits). Our observations suggest that depositional systems, too, respond to biotic crises, and that certain facies may act as barometers of ecologic and environmental change independent of fossil assemblage analyses. Close investigation of facies changes during other critical times in Earth history may serve as an important tool in interpreting the ecology of metazoans and their environment.

Human capital spillovers, productivity and regional convergence in Spain

This paper analyses the differential impact of human capital, in terms of different levels of schooling, on regional productivity and convergence. The potential existence of geographical spillovers of human capital is also considered by applying spatial panel data techniques. The empirical analysis of Spanish provinces between 1980 and 2007 confirms the positive impact of human capital on regional productivity and convergence, but reveals no evidence of any positive geographical spillovers of human capital. In fact, in some specifications the spatial lag presented by tertiary studies has a negative effect on the variables under consideration.

Europa, la reforma de los planes de estudio para la adaptación a los créditos Europeos, o la reforma global de calidad ecucativa. Un análisis bibliográfico

Idealmente, la educación debería proveer al estudiante de la habilidades necesarias, lasactitudes y los valores que son imprescindibles para el mundo laboral. Los cambios que deben producirse en los planes de estudio del País para incorporarnos a la Comunidad Europea, presentan serias inquietudes frente a situaciones que ya actualmente no controlamos demasiado y podrían modificarse. Para buscar soluciones previas, hemos realizado un análisis bibliográfico exhaustivo para identificar qué problemas son comunes con el resto de escuelas, específicos nuestros y si sehan encontrado soluciones, intentar aplicarlas en nuestro medio ante el cambio que se nosavecina

Maximized Utility of the Global Positioning System, HR-316, 1991

This report describes a project begun in January 1989 and completed December 1990, with the primary objective of obtaining sufficiently accurate horizontal and vertical control by using Global Positioning System (GPS) for highway applications. The ISU research group studied the operations of the Ashtech GPS receiver in static, pseudo-static, kinematic, and pseudo-kinematic modes. By using the Electronic Distance Measuring Instrument (EDMI) Calibration Baseline at ISU, the GPS receiver was tested for distance measurement accuracy. It was found that GPS measurements differed from the baseline distance by about 5.3 mm. Four projects were undertaken to further evaluate and improve the horizontal as well as the vertical accuracies of the GPS receiver -- (1) The Campus Project: with all points concentrated within a one-mile radius; (2) The Des Moines Project: a typical DOT project with all the points within a five-mile radius; (3) The Iowa Project: with all points within a 100-mile radius in the state of Iowa; and (4) The Mustang Project: an extension of the Iowa project, including a typical DOT project of about 10 miles within the inner 30 mile radius of the Iowa project.

Time invested in the global respiratory care of cystic fibrosis paediatrics patients.

INTRODUCTION: Respiratory therapy is a keystone of the treatment for cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease, but it is time consuming. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the total time spent on respiratory therapy, including chest physiotherapy (CPT) and physical activity (PA), as well as inhalation therapy (IT) and maintenance of materials (MM) to rationalise and optimise treatment. METHODS: A cross-sectional prospective study in a paediatric CF cohort. A questionnaire was developed to look at the time spent on respiratory care over 3 months. Enrolled in this study are all CF patients aged from 6 to 16 years (the exclusion criterion was lung transplantation). RESULTS: Of the 40 enrolled patients, 22 participated (13 boys and 9 girls), with a mean age of 11 years. The patients spent approximately 19.46 h per week (standard deviation ± 7.53, 8.00-35.25 h) on therapy: CPT (30.58%), IT (15.11%), PA (50%) and MM (4.32%), without statistical significance between sexes. CONCLUSION: In our cohort, CF patients spent an average of nearly 20 h a week in respiratory therapy, within a wide range of between 8 h to almost 36 h a week. PA consumes almost half of the time. Physicians have to take into consideration the burden of the treatment, to optimise the therapy.