Social influences on fertility : a comparative mixed methods study in eastern and western Germany

This article uses a mixed methods design to investigate the effects of social influence on family formation in a sample of eastern and western German young adults at an early stage of their family formation. Theoretical propositions on the importance of informal interaction for fertility and family behavior are still rarely supported by systematic empirical evidence. Major problems are the correct identification of salient relationships and the comparability of social networks across population subgroups. This article addresses the two issues through a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. In-depth interviewing, network charts, and network grids are used to map individual personal relationships and their influence on family formation decisions. In addition, an analysis of friendship dyads is provided.

The Formal Independence of Regulators: A Comparison of 17 Countries and 7 Sectors

This article seeks to explain the pattern of delegation to independent regulatory agencies in Western Europe. Two types of arguments are advanced to explain variations in the formal independence of regulators. Firstly, the need for governments to increase their credible commitment capacity may lead them to delegate regulation to an agency that is partly beyond their direct control. Secondly, delegation may be a response to the political uncertainty problem, which arises when governments are afraid of being replaced by another coalition with different preferences, which could decide to change existing policy choices. In addition, veto players may constitute a functional equivalent of delegation, since they influence policy stability and therefore tend to mitigate both the credibility and the political uncertainty problems. These arguments are consistent with the results of the empirical analysis of the formal independence of regulators in seventeen countries and seven sectors.

Bridging Formal/Informal Learning

Recently many OER activities have been getting popular, and users who access those content for informal learning are increasing. Most popular OER must be OCW, which has been proposed and promoted by MIT since 2001. In Japan OCW has been penetrating gradually since 2005. However in terms of formal learning utilization ICT technology has not been so popular yet in Japanese higher education field. In this paper two case studies, one is formal e-Learning using OCW, and the other is portal site of open contents from universities are described

Willingness and preferred methods to help quitting smoking in Switzerland

Purpose: to assess among current smokers in Switzerland the willingness to quit and the preferred methods to help quitting smoking. Methods: cross-sectional study including 1265 current smokers (607 women and 658 men). Difficulty quitting smoking and the preferred methods to help quitting smoking were assessed by questionnaire. Results: 89% of women and 84% of men reported being "very difficult" or "difficult" to quit smoking. Almost three quarters of smokers (73% of women and 70% of men) reported some willingness to quit smoking, but less than 25% of them wanted to do so within the next 30 days, and only 64% within the next 6 months. Willingness to quit was stronger among younger smokers while no differences were found for gender, physical activity or education al Javel. The preferred methods to help quitting smoking were personalized counselling by a doctor (51.4%), acupuncture (35.9%); nicotine replacement therapy (37.6%); hypnosis (28.8%); information flyers (24.9%); autogenic training (15.3%); bupropion (15.2%); personalized counselling by a non-doctor (14.7%) and group interventions (13.2%). Acupuncture and hypnosis were more favoured by women, and autogenic training by younger smokers. Still, a sizable fraction (between 19 and 51%) of smokers did not know some of the methods to help quitting smoking. Conclusion: although more than two thirds of Swiss smokers want to quit, only a small fraction wishes to do so in the short term. Setter information regarding the different methods to help quitting is also necessary.

A closer look at multiple-clone Plasmodium vivax infections: detection methods, prevalence and consequences

The naturally occurring clonal diversity among field isolates of the major human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax remained unexplored until the early 1990s, when improved molecular methods allowed the use of blood samples obtained directly from patients, without prior in vitro culture, for genotyping purposes. Here we briefly review the molecular strategies currently used to detect genetically distinct clones in patient-derived P. vivax samples, present evidence that multiple-clone P. vivax infections are commonly detected in areas with different levels of malaria transmission and discuss possible evolutionary and epidemiological consequences of the competition between genetically distinct clones in natural human infections. We suggest that, when two or more genetically distinct clones are present in the same host, intra-host competition for limited resources may select for P. vivax traits that represent major public health challenges, such as increased virulence, increased transmissibility and antimalarial drug resistance.

Diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis: prenatal and neonatal evaluation of methods used in Toulouse University Hospital and incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis

The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis (CT) and to assess the performances of prenatal and neonatal diagnoses. From 1994-2005, in Toulouse University Hospital, France, amniocentesis was performed on 352 pregnant women who were infected during pregnancy. All women were treated with spiramycin and pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine when prenatal diagnosis was positive. Among the 275 foetuses with follow-up, 66 (24%) were infected. The transmission rates of Toxoplasma gondii were 7%, 24% and 59% in the first, second and third trimesters, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of PCR on amniotic fluid (AF) were 91% and 99.5%, respectively. One case was diagnosed by mouse inoculation with AF and six cases were diagnosed by neonatal or postnatal screening. The sensitivity and specificity of PCR on placentas were 52% and 99%, respectively. The sensitivity of tests for the detection of specific IgA and IgM in cord blood was 53% and 64%, respectively, and specificity values were 91% and 92%. In conclusion, PCR performed on AF had the highest levels of sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of CT. This permits an early diagnosis of most cases and should be recommended.

Congenital toxoplasmosis: evaluation of serological methods for the detection of anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgM and IgA antibodies

A study was carried out to evaluate the presence of serological markers for the immunodiagnosis of the vertical transmission of toxoplasmosis. We tested the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values (positive and negative) of different serological methods for the early diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis. In a prospective longitudinal study, 50 infants with suspected congenital toxoplasmosis were followed up in the ambulatory care centre of Congenital Infections at University Hospital in Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil, from 1 January 2004-30 September 2005. Microparticle Enzyme Immunoassay (MEIA), Enzyme-Linked Fluorescent Assay (ELFA) and Immune-Fluorescent Antibody Technique (IFAT) were used to detect specific IgM anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies and a capture ELISA was used to detect specific IgA antibodies. The results showed that 28/50 infants were infected. During the neonatal period, IgM was detected in 39.3% (11/28) of those infected infants and IgA was detected in 21.4% (6/28). The sensitivity, specificity and predictive values (positive and negative) of each assay were, respectively: MEIA and ELFA: 60.9%, 100%, 100%, 55.0%; IFAT: 59.6%, 91.7%, 93.3%, 53.7%; IgA capture ELISA: 57.1%, 100%, 100%, 51.2%. The presence of specific IgM and IgA antibodies during the neonatal period was not frequent, although it was correlated with the most severe cases of congenital transmission. The results indicate that the absence of congenital disease markers (IgM and IgA) in newborns, even after confirming the absence with several techniques, does not constitute an exclusion criterion for toxoplasmosis.

Comparative study of two extraction methods for enteric virus recovery from sewage sludge by molecular methods

The aim of this study was to compare two nucleic acid extraction methods for the recovery of enteric viruses from activated sludge. Test samples were inoculated with human adenovirus (AdV), hepatitis A virus (HAV), poliovirus (PV) and rotavirus (RV) and were then processed by an adsorption-elution-precipitation method. Two extraction methods were used: an organic solvent-based method and a silica method. The organic-based method was able to recoup 20% of the AdV, 90% of the RV and 100% of both the PV and HAV from seeded samples. The silica method was able to recoup 1.8% of the AdV and 90% of the RV. These results indicate that the organic-based method is more suitable for detecting viruses in sewage sludge.

Scoring Methods for Ordinal Multidimensional Forced-Choice Items

In most psychological tests and questionnaires, a test score is obtained bytaking the sum of the item scores. In virtually all cases where the test orquestionnaire contains multidimensional forced-choice items, this traditionalscoring method is also applied. We argue that the summation of scores obtained with multidimensional forced-choice items produces uninterpretabletest scores. Therefore, we propose three alternative scoring methods: a weakand a strict rank preserving scoring method, which both allow an ordinalinterpretation of test scores; and a ratio preserving scoring method, whichallows a proportional interpretation of test scores. Each proposed scoringmethod yields an index for each respondent indicating the degree to whichthe response pattern is inconsistent. Analysis of real data showed that withrespect to rank preservation, the weak and strict rank preserving methodresulted in lower inconsistency indices than the traditional scoring method;with respect to ratio preservation, the ratio preserving scoring method resulted in lower inconsistency indices than the traditional scoring method

Comparing methods for dimensionality reduction when data are density functions

Functional Data Analysis (FDA) deals with samples where a whole function is observedfor each individual. A particular case of FDA is when the observed functions are densityfunctions, that are also an example of infinite dimensional compositional data. In thiswork we compare several methods for dimensionality reduction for this particular typeof data: functional principal components analysis (PCA) with or without a previousdata transformation and multidimensional scaling (MDS) for diferent inter-densitiesdistances, one of them taking into account the compositional nature of density functions. The difeerent methods are applied to both artificial and real data (householdsincome distributions)

Dynamic graphics of parametrically linked multivariate methods used in compositional data analysis

Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing oneor more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way arecorrespondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter alsoknown as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principalcomponent analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) andmultidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of thesemethods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linkedthrough parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations andconvex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual mapsof data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary insmall steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smoothchange from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving adeeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods

Testing of Diagnostic Methods for Detection of Influenza Virusfor Optimal Performance in the Context of an Influenza Surveillance Network

Influenza surveillance networks must detect early the viruses that will cause the forthcoming annual epidemics and isolate the strains for further characterization. We obtained the highest sensitivity (95.4%) with a diagnostic tool that combined a shell-vial assay and reverse transcription-PCR on cell culture supernatants at 48 h, and indeed, recovered the strain

Diagnostic accuracy of the Eurotest for dementia: a naturalistic, multicenter phase II study

BACKGROUND Available screening tests for dementia are of limited usefulness because they are influenced by the patient's culture and educational level. The Eurotest, an instrument based on the knowledge and handling of money, was designed to overcome these limitations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the Eurotest in identifying dementia in customary clinical practice. METHODS A cross-sectional, multi-center, naturalistic phase II study was conducted. The Eurotest was administered to consecutive patients, older than 60 years, in general neurology clinics. The patients' condition was classified as dementia or no dementia according to DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. We calculated sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp) and area under the ROC curves (aROC) with 95% confidence intervals. The influence of social and educational factors on scores was evaluated with multiple linear regression analysis, and the influence of these factors on diagnostic accuracy was evaluated with logistic regression. RESULTS Sixteen neurologists recruited a total of 516 participants: 101 with dementia, 380 without dementia, and 35 who were excluded. Of the 481 participants who took the Eurotest, 38.7% were totally or functionally illiterate and 45.5% had received no formal education. Mean time needed to administer the test was 8.2+/-2.0 minutes. The best cut-off point was 20/21, with Sn = 0.91 (0.84-0.96), Sp = 0.82 (0.77-0.85), and aROC = 0.93 (0.91-0.95). Neither the scores on the Eurotest nor its diagnostic accuracy were influenced by social or educational factors. CONCLUSION This naturalistic and pragmatic study shows that the Eurotest is a rapid, simple and useful screening instrument, which is free from educational influences, and has appropriate internal and external validity.

A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.