Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

Dealing with flood damages: will prevention, mitigation, and ex post compensation provide for a resilient triangle?

There is a wealth of literature on the design of ex post compensation mechanisms for natural disasters. However, more research needs to be done on the manner in which these mechanisms could steer citizens toward adopting individual-level preventive and protection measures in the face of flood risks. We have provided a comparative legal analysis of the financial compensation mechanisms following floods, be it through insurance, public funds, or a combination of both, with an empirical focus on Belgium, the Netherlands, England, and France. Similarities and differences between the methods in which these compensation mechanisms for flood damages enhance resilience were analyzed. The comparative analysis especially focused on the link between the recovery strategy on the one hand and prevention and mitigation strategies on the other. There is great potential within the recovery strategy for promoting preventive action, for example in terms of discouraging citizens from living in high-risk areas, or encouraging the uptake of mitigation measures, such as adaptive building. However, this large potential has yet to be realized, in part because of insufficient consideration and promotion of these connections within existing legal frameworks. We have made recommendations about how the linkages between strategies can be further improved. These recommendations relate to, among others, the promotion of resilient reinstatement through recovery mechanisms and the removal of legal barriers preventing the establishment of link-inducing measures.

Understanding stakeholder preferences for flood adaptation alternatives with natural capital implications

Inland flood risks are defined by a range of environmental and social factors, including land use and floodplain management. Shifting patterns of storm intensity and precipitation, attributed to climate change, are exacerbating flood risk in regions across North America. Strategies for adapting to growing flood risks and climate change must account for a community’s specific vulnerabilities, and its local economic, environmental, and social conditions. Through a stakeholder-engaged methodology, we designed an interactive decision exercise to enable stakeholders to evaluate alternatives for addressing specific community flood vulnerabilities. We used a multicriteria framework to understand what drives stakeholder preferences for flood mitigation and adaptation alternatives, including ecosystem-based projects. Results indicated strong preferences for some ecosystem-based projects that utilize natural capital, generated a useful discussion on the role of individual values in driving decisions and a critique of local environmental and hazard planning procedure, and uncovered support for a river management alternative that had previously been considered socially infeasible. We conclude that a multicriteria decision framework may help ensure that the multiple benefit qualities of natural capital projects are considered by decision makers. Application of a utility function can demonstrate the role of individual decision-maker values in decision outcomes and help illustrate why one alternative may be a better choice than another. Although designing an efficient and accurate multicriteria exercise is quite challenging and often data intensive, we imagine that this method is applicable elsewhere. It may be especially suitable to group decisions that involve varying levels of expertise and competing values, as is often the case in planning for the ecological and human impacts of climate change.

Impact of node mobility in user-centric routing

Recent paradigms in wireless communication architectures describe environments where nodes present a highly dynamic behavior (e.g., User Centric Networks). In such environments, routing is still performed based on the regular packet-switched behavior of store-and-forward. Albeit sufficient to compute at least an adequate path between a source and a destination, such routing behavior cannot adequately sustain the highly nomadic lifestyle that Internet users are today experiencing. This thesis aims to analyse the impact of the nodes’ mobility on routing scenarios. It also aims at the development of forwarding concepts that help in message forwarding across graphs where nodes exhibit human mobility patterns, as is the case of most of the user-centric wireless networks today. The first part of the work involved the analysis of the mobility impact on routing, and we found that node mobility significance can affect routing performance, and it depends on the link length, distance, and mobility patterns of nodes. The study of current mobility parameters showed that they capture mobility partially. The routing protocol robustness to node mobility depends on the routing metric sensitivity to node mobility. As such, mobility-aware routing metrics were devised to increase routing robustness to node mobility. Two categories of routing metrics proposed are the time-based and spatial correlation-based. For the validation of the metrics, several mobility models were used, which include the ones that mimic human mobility patterns. The metrics were implemented using the Network Simulator tool using two widely used multi-hop routing protocols of Optimized Link State Routing (OLSR) and Ad hoc On Demand Distance Vector (AODV). Using the proposed metrics, we reduced the path re-computation frequency compared to the benchmark metric. This means that more stable nodes were used to route data. The time-based routing metrics generally performed well across the different node mobility scenarios used. We also noted a variation on the performance of the metrics, including the benchmark metric, under different mobility models, due to the differences in the node mobility governing rules of the models.

A distributed, compact routing protocol for the Internet

The Internet has grown in size at rapid rates since BGP records began, and continues to do so. This has raised concerns about the scalability of the current BGP routing system, as the routing state at each router in a shortest-path routing protocol will grow at a supra-linearly rate as the network grows. The concerns are that the memory capacity of routers will not be able to keep up with demands, and that the growth of the Internet will become ever more cramped as more and more of the world seeks the benefits of being connected. Compact routing schemes, where the routing state grows only sub-linearly relative to the growth of the network, could solve this problem and ensure that router memory would not be a bottleneck to Internet growth. These schemes trade away shortest-path routing for scalable memory state, by allowing some paths to have a certain amount of bounded “stretch”. The most promising such scheme is Cowen Routing, which can provide scalable, compact routing state for Internet routing, while still providing shortest-path routing to nearly all other nodes, with only slightly stretched paths to a very small subset of the network. Currently, there is no fully distributed form of Cowen Routing that would be practical for the Internet. This dissertation describes a fully distributed and compact protocol for Cowen routing, using the k-core graph decomposition. Previous compact routing work showed the k-core graph decomposition is useful for Cowen Routing on the Internet, but no distributed form existed. This dissertation gives a distributed k-core algorithm optimised to be efficient on dynamic graphs, along with with proofs of its correctness. The performance and efficiency of this distributed k-core algorithm is evaluated on large, Internet AS graphs, with excellent results. This dissertation then goes on to describe a fully distributed and compact Cowen Routing protocol. This protocol being comprised of a landmark selection process for Cowen Routing using the k-core algorithm, with mechanisms to ensure compact state at all times, including at bootstrap; a local cluster routing process, with mechanisms for policy application and control of cluster sizes, ensuring again that state can remain compact at all times; and a landmark routing process is described with a prioritisation mechanism for announcements that ensures compact state at all times.

Map index, upper section, flood hazard analyses, Assunpink Creek watershed, Mercer and Monmouth Counties, New Jersey /

Shows "Stream reaches analyzed" and "Map location & plate number."

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

FIRM, flood insurance rate map and street index, borough of Carteret, New Jersey, Middlesex County /

Relief shown by spot heights.

The suitability for building of zones liable to flooding or the territorial negotiation of Flood Prevention Plans

International audience

Equilibrium Assignments in Competitive and Cooperative Traffic Flow Routing

Part 18: Optimization in Collaborative Networks

Vehicle Routing Problems that Minimize the Completion Time: Heuristics, Worst-Case Analyses, and Computational Results

In the standard Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), we route a fleet of vehicles to deliver the demands of all customers such that the total distance traveled by the fleet is minimized. In this dissertation, we study variants of the VRP that minimize the completion time, i.e., we minimize the distance of the longest route. We call it the min-max objective function. In applications such as disaster relief efforts and military operations, the objective is often to finish the delivery or the task as soon as possible, not to plan routes with the minimum total distance. Even in commercial package delivery nowadays, companies are investing in new technologies to speed up delivery instead of focusing merely on the min-sum objective. In this dissertation, we compare the min-max and the standard (min-sum) objective functions in a worst-case analysis to show that the optimal solution with respect to one objective function can be very poor with respect to the other. The results motivate the design of algorithms specifically for the min-max objective. We study variants of min-max VRPs including one problem from the literature (the min-max Multi-Depot VRP) and two new problems (the min-max Split Delivery Multi-Depot VRP with Minimum Service Requirement and the min-max Close-Enough VRP). We develop heuristics to solve these three problems. We compare the results produced by our heuristics to the best-known solutions in the literature and find that our algorithms are effective. In the case where benchmark instances are not available, we generate instances whose near-optimal solutions can be estimated based on geometry. We formulate the Vehicle Routing Problem with Drones and carry out a theoretical analysis to show the maximum benefit from using drones in addition to trucks to reduce delivery time. The speed-up ratio depends on the number of drones loaded onto one truck and the speed of the drone relative to the speed of the truck.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.

Assessment of Flood Risk Under Future Climate Conditions

Global climate change is predicted to have impacts on the frequency and severity of flood events. In this study, output from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for a range of possible future climate scenarios was used to force hydrologic models for four case study watersheds built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). GCM output was applied with either the "delta change" method or a bias correction. Potential changes in flood risk are assessed based on modeling results and possible relationships to watershed characteristics. Differences in model outputs when using the two different methods of adjusting GCM output are also compared. Preliminary results indicate that watersheds exhibiting higher proportions of runoff in streamflow are more vulnerable to changes in flood risk. The delta change method appears to be more useful when simulating extreme events as it better preserves daily climate variability as opposed to using bias corrected GCM output.