Impact of different irrigation strategies on grapes and wine quality of four grapevine cultivars (Vitis sp.) in cool climate conditions. An investigation into the relationships among ABA, water status, grape cultivar and wine quality

Niagara Peninsula of Ontario is the largest viticultural area in Canada. Although it is considered to be a cool and wet region, in the last decade many water stress events occurred during the growing seasons with negative effects on grape and wine quality. This study was initiated to understand and develop the best strategies for water management in vineyards and those that might contribute to grape maturity advancement. The irrigation trials investigated the impact of time of initiation (fruit set, lag phase and veraison), water replacement level based on theoretical loss through crop evapotranspiration (ETc; 100,50 and 25%) and different irrigation strategies [partial root zone drying (PRD) versus regulated deficit irrigation (RD!)] on grape composition and wine sensory profiles. The irrigation experiments were conducted in a commercial vineyard (Lambert Vineyards Inc.) located in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario, from 2005 through 2009. The two experiments that tested the combination of different water regimes and irrigation time initiation were set up in a randomized block design as follows: Baco noir - three replicates x 10 treatments [(25%, 50% and 100% of ETc) x (initiation at fruit set, lag phase and veraison) + control]; Chardonnay - three replicates x seven treatments [(25%, 50% and 100% of ETc) x (initiation at fruit set and veraison) + control]. The experiments that tested different irrigation strategies were set up on two cultivars as follows: Sauvignon blanc - four replicates x four treatments [control, fully irrigated (100% ETc), PRD (100% ETc) and RDI (25% ETc)]; Cabemet Sauvignon - four replicates x five treatments [control, fully irrigated (100% ETc), PRD (100% ETc), RDI (50% ETc) and RDI (25% ETc)]. The controls in each experiment were nonirrigated. The irrigation treatments were compared for many variables related to soil water status, vine physiology, berry composition, wine sensory profile, and hormone composition [(abscisic acid (ABA) and its catabolites]. Soil moisture profile was mostly affected by irrigation treatments between 20 and 60 em depth depending on the grapevine cultivar and the regime of water applied. Overall soil moisture was consistently higher throughout the season in 100 and 50% ETc compare to the control. Transpiration rates and leaf temperature as well as shoot growth rate were the most sensitive variables to soil water status. Drip irrigation associated with RDI treatments (50% ETc and 25% ETc) had the most beneficial effects on vine physiology, fruit composition and wine varietal typicity, mainly by maintaining a balance between vegetative and reproductive parts of the vine. Neither the control nor the 100 ETc had overall a positive effect on grape composition and wine sensory typicity. The time of irrigation initiation affected the vine physiology and grape quality, the most positive effect was found in treatments initiated at lag phase and veraison. RDI treatments were overall more consistent in their positive effect on grape composition and wine varietal typicity comparing to PRD treatment. The greatest difference between non-irrigated and irrigated vines in most of the variables studied was found in 2007, the driest and hottest season of the experimental period. Soil water status had a greater and more consistent effect on red grapevine cultivars rather than on white winegrape cultivars. To understand the relationships among soil and plant water status, plant physiology and the hormonal profiles associated with it, abscisic acid (ABA) and its catabolites [phaseic acid (PA), dihydrophaseic acid (DPA), 7-hydroxy-ABA (TOH-ABA), 8' -hydroxy-ABA, neophaseic acid and abscisic acid glucose ester (ABA-GE)] were analyzed in leaves and berries from the Baco noir and Chardonnay irrigation trials over two growing seasons. ABA and some of its catabolites accurately described the water status in the vines. Endogenous ABA and some of its catabolites were strongly affected in Baco noir and Chardonnay by both the water regime (i.e. ET level) and timing of irrigation initiation. Chardonnay grapevines produced less ABA in both leaves and berries compared to Baco noir, which indicated that ABA synthesis is also cultivar dependant. ABA-GE was the main catabolite in treatments with high water deficits, while PA and DPA were higher in treatments with high water status, suggesting that the vine produced more ABA-GE under water deficits to maintain rapid control of the stomata. These differences between irrigation treatments with respect to ABA and catabolites were particularly noticeable in the dry 2007 season. Two trials using exogenous ABA investigated the effect of different concentrations of ABA and organs targeted for spraying, on grape maturation and berry composition of Cabemet Sauvignon grapevines, in two cool and wet seasons (2008-2009). The fIrst experiment consisted of three replicates x three treatments [(150 and 300 mg/L, both applications only on clusters) + untreated control] while the second experiment consisted in three replicates x four treatments [(full canopy, only clusters, and only leaves sprayed with 300 ppm ABA) + untreated control]. Exogenous ABA was effective in hastening veraison, and improving the composition of Cabemet Sauvignon. Ability of ABA to control the timing of grape berry maturation was dependant on both solution concentration and the target organ. ABA affected not only fruit composition but also yield components. Berries treated with ABA had lower weight and higher skin dry mass, which constitutes qualitative aspects desired in the wine grapes. Temporal advancement of ripening through hormonal control can lead to earlier fruit maturation, which is a distinct advantage in cooler areas or areas with a high risk of early frost occurrence. Exogenous ABA could provide considerable benefits to wine industry in terms of grape composition, wine style and schedule activities in the winery, particularly in wet and cool years. These trials provide the ftrst comprehensive data in eastern North America on the response of important hybrid and Vitis vinifera winegrape cultivars to irrigation management. Results from this study additionally might be a forward step in understanding the ABA metabolism, and its relationship with water status. Future research should be focused on ftnding the ABA threshold required to trigger the ripening process, and how this process could be controlled in cool climates.

Le développement économique régional, la politique et les disparités régionales des grands territoires : le cas du Canada et de la Chine

Résumé Depuis le début des années 1990, la recherche sur le développement régional a pris une importance considérable dans les disciplines de l’économie et de la géographie dans la plupart des pays. De nombreuses études ont été consacrées à ce sujet et l’on constate une approche analytique de plus en plus sophistiquée. Que les économies pauvres ont tendance à converger vers les pays riches, ou bien à diverger au fil du temps est une question qui a attiré l'attention des décideurs et des universitaires depuis quelques décennies. Convergence ou de divergence économique est un sujet d'intérêt et de débat, non seulement pour valider ou non les deux modèles principaux de croissance qui sont considérés comme concurrent (l’approche néo-classique et celle des approches de croissance endogène), mais aussi pour ses implications pour les publiques politiques. En se basant sur une analyse des politiques de développement régional et des analyses statistiques de la convergence et des disparités régionales, les objectifs de cette thèse sont de tenter de fournir une explication des différents processus et des modèles de développement économique régional poursuivis dans le cas de territoires immenses en utilisant le Canada et la Chine comme études de cas, d'entreprendre une analyse des différents facteurs et des forces motrices qui sous-tendent le développement régional dans ces deux pays, et d'explorer à la fois les réussites et les échecs apparents dans les politiques de développement régional en comparant et contrastant les expériences de développement régional et les modèles de ces deux pays. A fin d'atteindre cet objectif, la recherche utilise une approche multi-scalaire et des méthodes de mesure multidimensionnelle dans le cadre des analyses sur les disparités « régionales » entre les macro régions (sous-ensembles de provinces) des deux pays, des provinces et des régions urbaines sélectionnées, dans le but ultime d’identifier des problèmes existants en termes de développement régional et de pouvoir proposer des solutions. Les étapes principales de la recherche sont : 1. La cueillette des données statistiques pour le Canada et la Chine (incluant les provinces de Québec et de Xinjiang) pour une gamme d’indicateurs (voir ci-dessous). 2. D’entreprendre une analyse de chaque dimension dans les deux juridictions: Population (p.ex. composition, structure, changement); Ressources (p. ex. utilisation, exploitation de l’énergie); Environnement (p.ex. la pollution); et le Développement socioéconomique (p.ex. le développement et la transformation des secteurs clé, et les modèles de développement rural et urbain), et les disparités changeantes par rapport à ces dimensions. 3. La définition d’une typologie de différents types de région en fonction de leurs trajectoires de développement, ce qui servira pour critiquer l’hypothèse centre-périphérie. 4. Le choix d’une région métropolitaine dans chaque juridiction (province). 5. D’entreprendre une analyse temporelle des événements clé (politiques, investissements) dans chaque région et les facteurs impliqués dans chaque événement, en utilisant l’information documentaire générale et des agences institutionnelles impliqués actuellement et dans un passée récent. Cette étude a tenté d'expliquer les schémas et les processus des deux économies, ainsi que la présentation d'études de cas qui illustrent et examinent les différences dans les deux économies à partir de l’échelle nationale jusqu’au niveau régional et provincial et aussi pour certaines zones urbaines. Cette étude a essayé de répondre aux questions de recherche comme: Est-il vrai que les pays avec des plus grandes territoires sont associés avec des plus grandes disparités interrégionales? Quel est le résultat des comparaisons entre pays développés et pays en développement? Quels sont les facteurs les plus importants dans le développement économique de vastes territoires dans les pays développés et pays en développement? Quel est le mécanisme de convergence et de divergence dans les pays développés et, respectivement, les pays en développement? Dans l'introduction à la thèse, le cadre général de l'étude est présenté, suivie dans le chapitre 1 d'une discussion sur les théories et les concepts utilisés dans la littérature théorique principale qui est pertinent à l'étude. Le chapitre 2 décrit la méthodologie de recherche. Le chapitre 3 présente une vue d'ensemble des politiques de développement économique régional et les programmes du Canada et de la Chine dans des périodes différentes à différentes échelles. Au chapitre 4, la convergence des deux pays à l'échelle nationale et la convergence provinciale pour chaque pays sont examinés en utilisant différentes méthodes de mesure telles que les méthodes traditionnelles, la convergence bêta et la convergence sigma. Dans le chapitre le plus complexe, le chapitre 5, les analyses comparatives sont présentées à l'aide de données statistiques, à partir des analyses des cas régionaux et provinciaux retenus des deux pays. Au chapitre 6, ces dispositions sont complétées par une analyse des régions urbaines choisies, qui permet également des aperçus sur les régions les plus périphériques. Dans la recherche proposée pour cette thèse, la politique, la population, le revenu, l'emploi, la composition industrielle, l'investissement, le commerce et le facteur de la migration sont également pris en compte comme facteurs importants de l'analyse régionale compte tenu de la superficie du territoire des deux pays et les différences de population entre eux. Cette thèse a évalué dans quelle mesure les politiques gouvernementales ont réussi à induire la convergence régionale ou ont encore ont creusé davantage les disparités régionales, ce qui implique nécessairement une évaluation de la durabilité des patrons et des programmes de développement régional. Cette étude a également mis l'accent sur les disparités régionales et la politique de développement régional, les comparaisons entre pays, pour mesurer la convergence entre les pays et entre les régions, y compris l'analyse spatiale, d'identifier les facteurs les plus actifs tels que la population, les ressources, la politique, l'urbanisation, les migrations, l'ouverture économique et leurs différents rôles dans le développement économique de ces grands territoires (au Canada et Chine). Les résultats empiriques et les processus de convergence et de divergence offrent un cadre intéressant pour l'examen de la trajectoire de développement régionales et les disparités régionales dans les deux économies. L'approche adoptée a révélé les différentes mosaïques complexes du développement régional dans les deux pays. Les résultats de cette étude ont démontré que la disparité en termes de revenu régional est une réalité dans chaque zone géographique, et que les causes sont nombreuses et complexes. Les deux économies ont certains parallèles dans la mise en œuvre des politiques de développement économique régional, mais il existe des différences importantes aussi et elles se sont développées à différentes vitesses. Les deux économies se sont développées depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale, mais la Chine a connu une croissance rapide que le Canada comme témoignent de nombreux indicateurs depuis 1980. Cependant, la Chine est maintenant confrontée à un certain nombre de problèmes économiques et sociaux, y compris les disparités régionales marquées, un fossé toujours croissant entre les revenus ruraux et urbains, une population vieillissante, le chômage, la pauvreté et la dégradation rapide de l'environnement avec toujours plus de demandes en énergie. Le développement économique régional en Chine est plus déséquilibré. Le Canada accuse un degré de disparités régionales et provinciales moins important que la Chine. Dans les cas provinciaux, il existe d'importantes différences et de disparités dans la structure économique et spatiale du Québec et du Xinjiang. Les disparités infra provinciales sont plus grandes que celles à l’échelle des provinces et des grandes régions (des sous-ensembles de provinces). Les mécanismes de convergence et de divergence dans les deux pays sont différents. Les résultats empiriques et les processus de convergence et de divergence offrent un cadre intéressant pour l'examen de la trajectoire de développement régionale et les disparités régionales dans les deux économies. Cette étude démontre également que l'urbanisation (les métropoles et les villes) s’avère être le facteur le plus actif et contribue à l'économie régionale dans ces grands territoires. L'ouverture a joué un rôle important dans les économies des deux pays. La migration est un facteur majeur dans la stimulation de l'économie des deux pays mais de façons différentes. Les résultats empiriques démontrent que les disparités régionales ne peuvent pas être évitées et elles existent presque partout. Il n'y a pas une formule universelle et de politiques spécifiques sont de mise pour chaque région. Mais il semble possible pour les décideurs politiques nationaux et régionaux d’essayer de maintenir l'écart à une échelle raisonnable pour éviter l'instabilité sociale.

Studies on Rubber Composition as Passive Acoustic Materials in Underwater Electro Acoustic Tranducer Technology and Their aging Characteristic

The research work has been in the area of compounding and characterization of rubbers for use in under water electro acoustic transducers. The study also covers specific material system such as encapsulation materials, baffle material, seal material, etc. Life prediction techniques of under water rubbers in general have been established with reference to more than one functional property. Ranges of passive materials, besides the active sensing material go into the construction of underwater electro acoustic transducers. Reliability of the transducer is critically dependent on these passive materials. Rubbers are a major class of passive materials. The present work concentrates on these materials. Conventional rubbers are inadequate to meet many of the stringent function specific requirements. There exists a large gap of information in the rubber technology of underwater rubbers, particularly relating to underwater electro acoustic transducers. This study is towards filling up the gaps of information in this crucial area. Water intake into rubber is considered as the single most important issue for the long-term performance of rubbers, especially Neoprene. In this study, the cause and effects of a range of parameters affecting the water absorption by diffusion and permeation have been investigated.

An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India—a historical perspective 1889–2008

Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889–1918 (NP1), 1919–1948 (NP2), 1949–1978 (NP3) and 1979–2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June– September, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889–2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1 mm with a standard deviation of 134.1 mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6 mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2 mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May– October) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during themonth of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During themonth of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November–March) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914– 2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during postmonsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4– 8 years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30–34 years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.

Studies on rubber compositions as passive acoustic materials in underwater electro acoustic transducer technology-and their aging characteristics

Rubber has become an indispensable material in Ocean technology. Rubber components play critical roles such as sealing, damping, environmental protection, electrical insulation etc. in most under water engineering applications. Technology driven innovations in electro acoustic transducers and other sophisticated end uses have enabled quantum jump in the quality and reliability of rubber components. Under water electro acoustic transducers use rubbers as a critical material in their construction. Work in this field has lead to highly reliable and high performance materials which has enhanced service life of transducers to the extent of 1015 years. Present work concentrates on these materials. Conventional rubbers are inadequate to meet many of the stringent functional of the requirements. There exists large gap of information in the rubber technology of under water rubbers, particularly in the context of under water electro acoustic transducers. Present study is towards filling up the gaps of information in this crucial area. The research work has been in the area of compounding and characterisation of rubbers for use in under water electro acoustic transducers. The study also covers specific material system such as encapsulation material, baffle material, seal material, etc. Life prediction techniques of under water rubbers in general has been established with reference to more than one functional property. This thesis is divided into 6 chapters.

Hydrogeology and hydrochemistry of the aquifer systems of Kuttanad area, Kerala: Their role in understanding the evolution of groundwaters

This is an attempt to understand the important factors that control the occurrence, development and hydrochemical evolution of groundwater resources in sedimentary multi aquifer systems. The primary objective of this work is an integrated study of the hydrogeology and hydrochemistry with a view to elucidate the hydrochemical evolution of groundwater resources in the aquifer systems. The study is taken up in a typical coastal sedimentary aquifer system evolved under fluvio-marine environment in the coastal area of Kerala, known as the Kuttanad. The present study has been carried out to understand the aquifer systems, their inter relationships and evolution in the Kuttanad area of Kerala. The multi aquifer systems in the Kuttanad basin were formed from the sediments deposited under fluvio-marine and fluvial depositional environments and the marine transgressions and regressions in the geological past and palaeo climatic conditions influenced the hydrochemical environment in these aquifers. The evolution of groundwater and the hydrochemical processes involved in the formation of the present day water quality are elucidated from hydrochemical studies and the information derived from the aquifer geometry and hydraulic properties. Kuttanad area comprises of three types of aquifer systems namely phreatic aquifer underlain by Recent confined aquifer followed by Tertiary confined aquifers. These systems were formed by the deposition of sediments under fluvio-marine and fluvial environment. The study of the hydrochemical and hydraulic properties of the three aquifer systems proved that these three systems are separate entities. The phreatic aquifers in the area have low hydraulic gradients and high rejected recharge. The Recent confined aquifer has very poor hydraulic characteristics and recharge to this aquifer is very low. The Tertiary aquifer system is the most potential fresh water aquifer system in the area and the groundwater flow in the aquifer is converging towards the central part of the study area (Alleppey town) due to large scale pumping of water for water supply from this aquifer system. Mixing of waters and anthropogenic interferences are the dominant processes modifying the hydrochemistry in phreatic aquifers. Whereas, leaching of salts and cation exchange are the dominant processes modifying the hydrochemistry of groundwater in the confined aquifer system of Recent alluvium. Two significant chemical reactions modifying the hydrochemistry in the Recent aquifers are oxidation of iron in ferruginous clays which contributes hydrogen ions and the decomposition of organic matter in the aquifer system which consumes hydrogen ions. The hydrochemical environment is entirely different in the Tertiary aquifers as the groundwater in this aquifer system are palaeo waters evolved during various marine transgressions and regressions and these waters are being modified by processes of leaching of salts, cation exchange and chemical reactions under strong reducing environment. It is proved that the salinity observed in the groundwaters of Tertiary aquifers are not due to seawater mixing or intrusion, but due to dissolution of salts from the clay formations and ion exchange processes. Fluoride contamination in this aquifer system lacks a regional pattern and is more or less site specific in natureThe lowering of piezometric heads in the Tertiary aquifer system has developed as consequence of large scale pumping over a long period. Hence, puping from this aquifer system is to be regulated as a groundwater management strategy. Pumping from the Tertiary aquifers with high capacity pumps leads to well failures and mixing of saline water from the brackish zones. Such mixing zones are noticed from the hydrochemical studies. This is the major aquifer contamination in the Tertiary aquifer system which requires immediate attention. Usage of pumps above 10 HP capacities in wells taping Tertiary aquifers should be discouraged for sustainable development of these aquifers. The recharge areas need to be identified precisely for recharging the aquifer systems throughartificial means.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Effects of changing water availability on land use in irrigated mountain oases of Al Jabal Al Akhdar, northern Oman

In Oman, during the last three decades, agricultural water use and groundwater extraction has dramatically increased to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population and major changes in lifestyle. This has triggered agricultural land-use changes which have been poorly investigated. In view of this our study aimed at analysing patterns of shortterm land-use changes (2007-2009) in the five irrigated mountain oases of Ash Sharayjah, Al’Ayn, Al’Aqr, Qasha’ and Masayrat ar Ruwajah situated in the northern Oman Hajar mountains of Al Jabal Al Akhdar where competitive uses of irrigation water are particularly apparent. Comprehensive GIS-based field surveys were conducted over three years to record changes in terrace use in these five oases where farmers have traditionally adapted to rain-derived variations of irrigation water supply, e.g. by leaving agricultural terraces of annual crops uncultivated in drought years. Results show that the area occupied with field crops decreased in the dry years of 2008 and 2009 for all oases. In Ash Sharayjah, terrace areas grown with field crops declined from 4.7 ha (32.4 % of total terrace area) in 2007 to 3.1 ha (21.6 %) in 2008 and 3.0 ha (20.5 %) in 2009. Similarly, the area proportion of field crops shrunk in Al’Ayn, Qasha’ and Masayrat from 35.2, 36.3 and 49.6 % in 2007 to 19.8, 8.5 and 41.3 % in 2009, respectively. In Al’Aqr, the area of field crops slightly increased from 0.3 ha (17.0 %) in 2007 to 0.7 (39.1 %) in 2008, and decreased to 0.5 ha (28.8 %) in 2009. During the same period annual dry matter yields of the cash crop garlic in Ash Sharayjah increased from 16.3 t ha-1 in 2007 to 19.8 t ha-1 in 2008 and 18.3 t ha-1 in 2009, while the same crop yielded only 0.4, 1.6 and 1.1 t ha-1 in Masayrat. In 2009, the total estimated agricultural area of the new town of Sayh Qatanah above the five oases was around 13.5 ha. Our results suggest that scarcity of irrigation water as a result of low precipitation and increased irrigation and home water consumption in the new urban settlements above the five oases have led to major shifts in the land-use pattern and increasingly threaten the centuries-long tradition and drought-resilience of agriculture in the oases of the studied watershed.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Determinantes socio-económicas de la desnutrición global infantil en la Localidad de Ciudad Bolívar (Bogotá, Colombia) en el año 2011

La desnutrición infantil y la pobreza se encuentran asociadas y estas a su vez con el progreso de los países. Conocer las determinantes sociales y económicas de la niñez que padece de bajo peso es necesario para crear escenarios propicios para el adecuado desarrollo de la primera infancia y de esta manera contribuir con la superación de la pobreza en el marco de sistemas sanitarios equitativos. Se realiza una descripción de las características socio-económicas y un análisis de posibles asociaciones entre estas y el bajo peso infantil de una muestra de infantes de uno de los sectores de mayor vulnerabilidad y pobreza de Bogotá (Colombia). La tasa del bajo peso infantil en la muestra del estudio en más alta a la presentada en Bogotá y Colombia (8.5%, 2.9% y 3.4% respectivamente). Al realizar el análisis de las posibles asociaciones entre el bajo peso y las variables de estudio, se evidencia que las relaciones son débiles entre la primera y las segundas, siendo la condición de desplazamiento la que mayor asociación positiva presenta con la deficiencia nutricional seguido del rango de edad entre los 25 y 36 meses. La situación que presenta mayor independencia con respecto al bajo peso infantil es contar con vivienda propia seguida del sexo. La desnutrición infantil se presenta en niveles importantes en sectores de mayor vulnerabilidad con implicaciones para el adecuado desarrollo de los infantes y para las intenciones de reducción de los índices de pobreza en el país. El fortalecimiento de las políticas públicas que favorezca el desarrollo infantil, la superación de la pobreza y las inequidades en los sistemas de salud deben contemplar acciones integrales dirigidas a los más vulnerables, con la participación de la sociedad civil y los sectores públicos y privados, el compromiso político y económico de los gobiernos y reglas claras que contribuyan a la solución estructural de la pobreza y que promueva el adecuado desarrollo infantil.

Conflicto por el agua: un análisis geopolítico al sistema Tigris-Éufrates. 1990-2003

El interés de este estudio de caso es analizar la situación vivida entre los Estados de la cuenca del Sistema Tigris-Éufrates, un recurso hídrico transfronterizo entre 1990 y el 2003. Se estudia y explica cómo el Interés Nacional de Turquía, Siria e Irak, Estados ribereños del Sistema supuso un obstáculo para la implementación de la Gestión Integrada de Recursos Hídricos sobre la cuenca, al impedir la cooperación y coordinación de las políticas gubernamentales, dificultando la protección de la cuenca y la garantía del acceso al recurso de forma equitativa. Este trabajo se enmarca en los estudios sobre Seguridad Ambiental, particularmente en la teoría de la Escasez Ambiental de Thomas Homer-Dixon y el Grupo de Toronto, referente a la relación entre la escasez de un recurso natural renovable y el surgimiento de un conflicto.

Fatiga del reanimador y calidad de las compresiones torácicas en niños con y sin vía aérea asegurada

Introducción: La calidad de las compresiones torácicas tiene importancia durante la reanimación pediátrica y se ve afectada por diversos factores como la fatiga del reanimador, esta puede verse condicionada por las características de las compresiones establecidas según la presencia o ausencia de un dispositivo avanzado en la vía aérea determinando la interrupción continuidad de las mismas. En este estudio se realizó una simulación clínica, evaluando la presencia de fatiga del reanimador frente a pacientes con y sin dispositivo avanzado de la vía aérea. Metodología: Se incluyeron 12 participantes, quienes realizaron compresiones torácicas a un simulador clínico, tanto para el caso de la maniobra 1 correspondiente a ciclos interrumpidos con el fin de proporcionar ventilaciones, como para el caso de la maniobra 2 en la que la actividad fue continua. Se midieron calidad de compresiones, VO2 max y fatiga mediante escala de Borg RPE 6-20. Resultados: La calidad de las compresiones disminuyó en ambos grupos después del minuto 2 y más rápidamente cuando fueron ininterrumpidas. La fatiga se incrementó cuando las compresiones fueron continuas. Discusión: Se evidencia una relación directamente proporcional del aumento de la fatiga en relación al tiempo de reanimación e inversamente proporcional entre la calidad de las compresiones y la sensación de cansancio, en especial después del minuto 2. Un tiempo de 2 minutos podría ser el tiempo ideal para lograr compresiones de calidad y para realizar el reemplazo de la persona que realiza las compresiones.

Monitoring and modelling the three-dimensional flow of water under drip irrigation

The interpretation of soil water dynamics under drip irrigation systems is relevant for crop production as well as on water use and management. In this study a three-dimensional representation of the flow of water under drip irrigation is presented. The work includes analysis of the water balance at point scale as well as area-average, exploring uncertainties in water balance estimations depending on the number of locations sampled. The water flow was monitored by detailed profile water content measurements before irrigation, after irrigation and 24 h later with a dense array of soil moisture access tubes radially distributed around selected drippers. The objective was to develop a methodology that could be used on selected occasions to obtain 'snap shots' of the detailed three-dimensional patterns of soil moisture. Such patterns are likely to be very complex, as spatial variability will be induced for a number of reasons, such as strong horizontal gradients in soil moisture, variations between individual sources in the amount of water applied and spatial variability is soil hydraulic properties. Results are compared with a widely used numerical model, Hydrus-2D. The observed dynamic of the water content distribution is in good agreement with model simulations, although some discrepancies concerning the horizontal distribution of the irrigation bulb are noted due to soil heterogeneity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops

The formulation of a new process-based crop model, the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops is presented. The model has been designed to operate on spatial scales commensurate with those of global and regional climate models. It aims to simulate the impact of climate on crop yield. Procedures for model parameter determination and optimisation are described, and demonstrated for the prediction of groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) yields across India for the period 1966-1989. Optimal parameters (e.g. extinction coefficient, transpiration efficiency, rate of change of harvest index) were stable over space and time, provided the estimate of the yield technology trend was based on the full 24-year period. The model has two location-specific parameters, the planting date, and the yield gap parameter. The latter varies spatially and is determined by calibration. The optimal value varies slightly when different input data are used. The model was tested using a historical data set on a 2.5degrees x 2.5degrees grid to simulate yields. Three sites are examined in detail-grid cells from Gujarat in the west, Andhra Pradesh towards the south, and Uttar Pradesh in the north. Agreement between observed and modelled yield was variable, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.42 and 0, respectively. Skill was highest where the climate signal was greatest, and correlations were comparable to or greater than correlations with seasonal mean rainfall. Yields from all 35 cells were aggregated to simulate all-India yield. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated yields was 0.76, and the root mean square error was 8.4% of the mean yield. The model can be easily extended to any annual crop for the investigation of the impacts of climate variability (or change) on crop yield over large areas. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hillslope scale surface runoff, sediment, and nutrient losses associated with tramline wheelings

Research on arable sandy loam and silty clay loam soils on 4° slopes in England has shown that tramlines (i.e. the unseeded wheeling areas used to facilitate spraying operations in cereal crops) can represent the most important pathway for phosphorus and sediment loss from moderately sloping fields. Detailed monitoring over the October–March period in winters 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 included event-based sampling of surface runoff, suspended and particulate sediment, and dissolved and particulate phosphorus from hillslope segments (each ∼300–800 m2) established in a randomized block design with four replicates of each treatment at each of two sites on lighter and heavier soils. Experimental treatments assessed losses from the cropped area without tramlines, and from the uncropped tramline area, and were compared to losses from tramlines which had been disrupted once in the autumn with a shallow tine. On the lighter soil, the effects of removal or shallow incorporation of straw residues was also determined. Research on both sandy and silty clay loam soils across two winters showed that tramline wheelings represented the dominant pathway for surface runoff and transport of sediment, phosphorus and nitrogen from cereal crops on moderate slopes. Results indicated 5·5–15·8% of rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0·8–2·9 kg TP ha−1 and 0·3–4·8 t ha−1 sediment in tramline treatments, compared to only 0·2–1·7% rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0·0–0·2 kg TP ha−1 and 0·003–0·3 t ha−1 sediment from treatments without tramlines or those where tramlines had been disrupted. The novel shallow disruption of tramline wheelings using a tine once following the autumn spray operation consistently and dramatically reduced (p < 0·001) surface runoff and loads of sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus to levels similar to those measured in cropped areas between tramlines. Results suggest that options for managing tramline wheelings warrant further refinement and evaluation with a view to incorporating them into spatially-targeted farm-level management planning using national or catchment-based agri-environment policy instruments aimed at reducing diffuse pollution from land to surface water systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.