915 resultados para Database search Evidential value Bayesian decision theory Influence diagrams


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Sports tourism has received growing attention in academic research over the past two decades (Weed and Bull, 2009, Gibson, 2005) but greater understanding of the consumer is needed, particularly the factors influencing decisions to include sport as part of a leisure trip. This paper provides, through a focus on the sport of golf, insight into the characteristics of the sports tourist and how sports tourist behaviours influence the selection of locations deemed suitable for sports participation. This qualitative research employs a grounded theory methodology, underpinned by a constructivist epistemology, to evaluate twenty-six in-depth interviews with golf tourists. The findings propose a model which explains the relationship between golf tourist behaviours and destination selection. This identifies six strands which determine the relationship between the golf tourist, golf behaviours and destination selection (constructing the golf holiday, emotional rewards of taking a trip, total trip spend, amenities and support facilities, course characteristics and reputation of the destination). Furthermore it illuminates the complexity of these relationships through recognition of four spheres of influence (group dynamics, competition and ability, golfing capital and intermediaries). Discussion elucidates how this increased understanding of the golf tourist behaviours and destination selection might be applied to other sports, with conclusions exploring implications for the sports tourism industry and destinations.

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International migration sets in motion a range of significant transnational processes that connect countries and people. How migration interacts with development and how policies might promote and enhance such interactions have, since the turn of the millennium, gained attention on the international agenda. The recognition that transnational practices connect migrants and their families across sending and receiving societies forms part of this debate. The ways in which policy debate employs and understands transnational family ties nevertheless remain underexplored. This article sets out to discern the understandings of the family in two (often intermingled) debates concerned with transnational interactions: The largely state and policydriven discourse on the potential benefits of migration on economic development, and the largely academic transnational family literature focusing on issues of care and the micro-politics of gender and generation. Emphasizing the relation between diverse migration-development dynamics and specific family positions, we ask whether an analytical point of departure in respective transnational motherhood, fatherhood or childhood is linked to emphasizing certain outcomes. We conclude by sketching important strands of inclusions and exclusions of family matters in policy discourse and suggest ways to better integrate a transnational family perspective in global migration-development policy.

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Which 'actor' takes the management accountant role as an extravert business partner? Does a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling a management accountant role as a business partner exist? Open Universiteit Nederland End thesis MSc Management, Accounting & Finance Support 1: Prof. dr. A.C.N. van de Ven RA Support 2: dr. P.C.M. Claes Examinator: dr. P. Kamminga Date of approval: September 3, 2014 student: P.R. van der Wal (studentnumber 839104017 email petervanderwal2003@yahoo.com The main question of this research is: Does a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling a management accountant role as a business partner exist? This research is based on the dataset obtained by the controller survey 2013, executed in commission of the 'Open Universiteit' (Bork & van der Wal, 2014). From the literature review it is clear: among other management accountant roles we need business partners. And there is a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling the role as business partner. At the same time a lack of necessary personal traits for this role has been noticed, among which is Extraversion. The factor- and cluster analyses reported by Bork & van der Wal (2014) resulted in the identification of two types of management accountant roles. In this extended research TYPE II is identified as a business partner because (s)he practices activity-combinations which are related to strategy, analyzing, supporting management in decision making, advisory, change-agency and representing the organization. 36% of the population of Dutch management accountants with a master degree (or similar) meet with the role of the business partner. Although the fulfillment of the role (TYPE II) is not purely business partnering. E.g. reporting and scorekeeping are still activities executed by TYPE II and it is not clear to what extent. Apart from that, role TYPE I executes change management and risk-management activities, which are (according to the definition) activities that belong to the business partner. The role as business partner is practiced but not that optimal as defined in theory. The logistic regression analyses on the survey-data show that Extraversion among three other triggers is significant for the prediction of the fulfillment of the management accountant role (Bork & van der Wal, 2014). A more extravert personal trait predicts a preference for TYPE II, which relates to the business partner. This 'in depth research' concentrated on the relation between the Big Five personal traits and the six activity-combinations (factors) instead of on the two clusters (I and II). The statistic analyses confirm the predicting influence of Extraversion on the business partner role. Although, except for one factor, no extra significance has been found in this additional research. The essential question can be confirmed positively: the management accountant role business partner exists in practice, some management accountants are more extravert then others, and there is a positive relation between extraversion and fulfilling the business partner role. Some formulated research limitations are related to the statistical weakness of some prediction outcomes and to interpretation differences that might occur. Further research can e.g. concentrate on the other personal traits and the significance for role-differentiation in education programs. The management accountant survey 2013 Management accountant roles in 2013 in the Netherlands Open Universiteit Nederland End thesis MSc Management, Accounting & Finance Support 1: Prof. dr. A.C.N. van de Ven RA Support 2: dr. P.C.M. Claes Examinator: dr. P. Kamminga Date of approval: September 3, 2014 student: P.R. van der Wal and H.J. Bork studentnumber: 839104017 and 838532340) email: petervanderwal2003@yahoo.com and hjbork@hotmail.com This paper describes the conceptual model and results of the 'management accountants survey 2013'. The survey is part of a longitudinal survey, earlier executed in 2004, 2007 and 2010 under responsibility of the 'Open Universiteit Nederland'. Secondly the dataset of this survey will be used by us to do our own analyses on the predicting value of the triggers 'personality factor: extraversion' and 'lever of control: interactive controls' on the management accounting role that comes close to a role defined as 'Business Partner'. Scientific research shows that there are different management accounting roles, and that these roles change and that preferences exist for certain roles (Verstegen B. , Loo, Mol, Slagter, & Geerkens, 2007). The main question that will be answered in this paper is which coherent combinations of activities are being executed by management accountants in 2013 in the Netherlands by master-graduates? And secondly which triggers of management accountants' activities predict to which cluster a management accountant belongs? The conceptual model of this research has been developed in 2004 (Verstegen B. , Loo, Mol, Slagter, & Geerkens, 2007). For this research the same 37 activities as in the former researches are included (appendix 1). In the trigger-set (appendix 1) some adaptations have been made for reasons of restricting the length of the survey and to pinpoint on particular research goals (e.g. personality and levers of control). The coherent combinations of activities were found by a factor-analysis and the groups of controllers by a cluster analysis. A regression analysis shows which trigger-items are most significant. The survey has been sent to 2.353 students that finished a controller-study on a Dutch University. There was a 9% (211) response with a completely filled survey. 137 of which indicated to work in a controller-function at the moment. These controllers have been included in the results. The factor-analysis results in six different coherent combinations of activities (factors). Shortly these factors are: advising top management on strategic level with result-effecting information (1), organizing internal reporting (2) organizing and representing the organization on external reporting (3), advising and managing changes by shortcomings in processes and control systems (4), maintaining and managing administrative organization- , information- and control systems (5) and organizing/executing risk management and internal audit (6). Factors 4, 5 and 6 are clustered in cluster TYPE I (125 controllers) and factors 1, 2 and 3 in cluster TYPE II (69 controllers). TYPE II can be associated with the management accountant role 'Business Partner', although the accountant keeps partly active in a scorekeeper role. The four most significant triggers for predicting being a TYPE II controller are 'Executing a risk-management task in order to meet compliance standards' (1), extraversion (2), company size in terms of fte (3) and gender (4).

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Purpose – This paper aims to contribute towards understanding how safety knowledge can be elicited from railway experts for the purposes of supporting effective decision-making. Design/methodology/approach – A consortium of safety experts from across the British railway industry is formed. Collaborative modelling of the knowledge domain is used as an approach to the elicitation of safety knowledge from experts. From this, a series of knowledge models is derived to inform decision-making. This is achieved by using Bayesian networks as a knowledge modelling scheme, underpinning a Safety Prognosis tool to serve meaningful prognostics information and visualise such information to predict safety violations. Findings – Collaborative modelling of safety-critical knowledge is a valid approach to knowledge elicitation and its sharing across the railway industry. This approach overcomes some of the key limitations of existing approaches to knowledge elicitation. Such models become an effective tool for prediction of safety cases by using railway data. This is demonstrated using passenger–train interaction safety data. Practical implications – This study contributes to practice in two main directions: by documenting an effective approach to knowledge elicitation and knowledge sharing, while also helping the transport industry to understand safety. Social implications – By supporting the railway industry in their efforts to understand safety, this research has the potential to benefit railway passengers, staff and communities in general, which is a priority for the transport sector. Originality/value – This research applies a knowledge elicitation approach to understanding safety based on collaborative modelling, which is a novel approach in the context of transport.

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Stimuli that cannot be perceived (i.e., that are subliminal) can still elicit neural responses in an observer, but can such stimuli influence behavior and higher-order cognition? Empirical evidence for such effects has periodically been accepted and rejected over the last six decades. Today, many psychologists seem to consider such effects well-established and recent studies have extended the power of subliminal processing to new limits. In this thesis, I examine whether this shift in zeitgeist is matched by a shift in evidential strength for the phenomenon. This thesis consists of three empirical studies involving more than 250 participants, a simulation study, and a quantitative review. The conclusion based on these efforts is that several methodological, statistical, and theoretical issues remain in studies of subliminal processing. These issues mean that claimed subliminal effects might be caused by occasional or weak percepts (given the experimenters’ own definitions of perception) and that it is still unclear what evidence there is for the cognitive processing of subliminal stimuli. New data are presented suggesting that even in conditions traditionally claimed as “subliminal”, occasional or weak percepts may in fact influence cognitive processing more strongly than do the physical stimuli, possibly leading to reversed priming effects. I also summarize and provide methodological, statistical, and theoretical recommendations that could benefit future research aspiring to provide solid evidence for subliminal cognitive processing.

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Purpose - To examine the leisure cruise service environment—the shipscape—and its effects on cruisers’ emotions, meaning-making, and onboard behavior. Design/methodology/approach - This paper uses qualitative data from 260 cruise customers that was mined from archived online discussion boards. Data were analyzed based on grounded theory and interpretive methods to derive an understanding of shipscape meanings and influences from the cruiser’s perspective. Research limitations/implications - Given the exploratory research objective and interpretive methodology, generalizability beyond the cruise context is limited. However, research findings suggest not only that ambient shipscape conditions influence cruisers’ pleasure, but also that ship layout, décor, size, facilities, and social factors influence the meanings cruisers attach to cruise brands and to the overall cruise experience. Originality/value - This paper explores atmospheric effects on consumer behavior in a context as yet examined by tourism and hospitality scholars. The findings extend Bitner’s (1992) servicescape framework and reveal novel atmospheric and social effects that influence cruise travelers’ experience.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

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Drawing on an empirical study of public transport, this paper studies interactive value formation at the provider—customer interface, from a practice—theory perspective. In contrast to the bulk of previous research, it argues that interactive value formation is not only associated with value co-creation but also with value co-destruction. In addition, the paper also identifies five interaction value practices — informing, greeting, delivering, charging, and helping — and theorizes how interactive value formation takes place as well as how value is intersubjectively assessed by actors at the provider—customer interface. Furthermore, the paper also distinguishes between four types of interactive value formation praxis corresponding with four subject positions which practitioners step into when engaging in interactive value formation.

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Purpose – The paper aims to conceptualise cosmopolitanism drivers from the third-level power perspective by drawing on Lukes’ (1974; 2005) theory of power. In addition, the paper aims to investigate the relationship between entrepreneurs’ cosmopolitan dispositions and habitus, i.e. a pattern of an individual’s demeanour, as understood by Bourdieu. Design/methodology/approach – This conceptual paper makes use of Bourdieu’s framework (habitus) by extending it to the urban cosmopolitan environment and linking habitus to the three-dimensional theory of power and, importantly, to the power’s third dimension – preference-shaping. Findings – Once cosmopolitanism is embedded in the urban area’s values, this creates multiple endless rounds of mutual influence (by power holders onto entrepreneurs via political and business elites, and by entrepreneurs onto power holders via the same channels), with mutual benefit. Therefore, mutually beneficial influence that transpires in continuous support of a cosmopolitan city’s environment may be viewed as one of the factors that enhances cosmopolitan cities’ resilience to changes in macroeconomic conditions. Originality/value – The paper offers a theoretical model that enriches the understanding of the power-cosmopolitanism-entrepreneurship link, by emphasising the preference-shaping capacity of power, which leads to the embedment of cosmopolitanism in societal values. As a value shared by political and business elites, cosmopolitanism is also actively promoted by entrepreneurs through their disposition and habitus. This ensures not only their willing compliance with power and the environment, but also their enhancement of favourable business conditions. Entrepreneurs depart from mere acquiescence (to power and its explicit dominance), and instead practice their cosmopolitan influence by active preference-shaping.

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The blast furnace is the main ironmaking production unit in the world which converts iron ore with coke and hot blast into liquid iron, hot metal, which is used for steelmaking. The furnace acts as a counter-current reactor charged with layers of raw material of very different gas permeability. The arrangement of these layers, or burden distribution, is the most important factor influencing the gas flow conditions inside the furnace, which dictate the efficiency of the heat transfer and reduction processes. For proper control the furnace operators should know the overall conditions in the furnace and be able to predict how control actions affect the state of the furnace. However, due to high temperatures and pressure, hostile atmosphere and mechanical wear it is very difficult to measure internal variables. Instead, the operators have to rely extensively on measurements obtained at the boundaries of the furnace and make their decisions on the basis of heuristic rules and results from mathematical models. It is particularly difficult to understand the distribution of the burden materials because of the complex behavior of the particulate materials during charging. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to clarify some aspects of burden distribution and to develop tools that can aid the decision-making process in the control of the burden and gas distribution in the blast furnace. A relatively simple mathematical model was created for simulation of the distribution of the burden material with a bell-less top charging system. The model developed is fast and it can therefore be used by the operators to gain understanding of the formation of layers for different charging programs. The results were verified by findings from charging experiments using a small-scale charging rig at the laboratory. A basic gas flow model was developed which utilized the results of the burden distribution model to estimate the gas permeability of the upper part of the blast furnace. This combined formulation for gas and burden distribution made it possible to implement a search for the best combination of charging parameters to achieve a target gas temperature distribution. As this mathematical task is discontinuous and non-differentiable, a genetic algorithm was applied to solve the optimization problem. It was demonstrated that the method was able to evolve optimal charging programs that fulfilled the target conditions. Even though the burden distribution model provides information about the layer structure, it neglects some effects which influence the results, such as mixed layer formation and coke collapse. A more accurate numerical method for studying particle mechanics, the Discrete Element Method (DEM), was used to study some aspects of the charging process more closely. Model charging programs were simulated using DEM and compared with the results from small-scale experiments. The mixed layer was defined and the voidage of mixed layers was estimated. The mixed layer was found to have about 12% less voidage than layers of the individual burden components. Finally, a model for predicting the extent of coke collapse when heavier pellets are charged over a layer of lighter coke particles was formulated based on slope stability theory, and was used to update the coke layer distribution after charging in the mathematical model. In designing this revision, results from DEM simulations and charging experiments for some charging programs were used. The findings from the coke collapse analysis can be used to design charging programs with more stable coke layers.

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This research aimed to explore the privileging of growth and its influence on planning in England. The research examined two contrasting case studies: Middlesbrough Borough Council and Cambridge City Council. The analysis of growth privileging is rooted within a constructionist ontology which argues that planning is about the way in which people construct value relative to the function of land. This perspective enables the research to position growth privileging as a social construction; a particular mental frame for understanding and analyzing place based challenges and an approach which has been increasingly absorbed by the UK planning community. Through interviews with a range of planning actors, the first part of the research examined the state of planning in the current political and economic context and the influence that a privileging of growth has on planning. The second part of the research investigated the merits and feasibility of the capabilities approach as an alternative mental frame for planning, an approach developed through the work of Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum. The research results disaggregate the concept of economic growth, based on the responses of interviewees and conclude that it is characterized by homogeneity. Growth is valued, not only because of its economic role, for example, supporting jobs and income but its potential in creating diversity, enriching culture and precipitating transformative change. Pursuing growth as an objective has a range of influences upon planning. In particular, it supports a utilitarian framework for decision-making which values spatial decisions on their ability to support aggregate economic growth. The research demonstrates the feasibility and merits of the capabilities approach as a means with which to better understand the relationship between planning and human flourishing. Based on this analysis, the research proposes that the capabilities approach can provide an alternative ‘mental frame’ for planning which privileges human flourishing as the primary objective or ‘final end’ instead of economic growth.

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Abstract Considerable research has been carried out on entrepreneurship in efforts to understand its incidence in order to influence and maximize its benefits. Essentially, researchers and policy makers have sought to understand the link between individuals and business creation: Why some people start businesses while others do not. The research indicates that personality traits, individual background factors and association of entrepreneurship with career choice and small business enterprises, cannot sufficiently explain entrepreneurship. It is recognized that entrepreneurship is an intentional process and based on Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior, the most defining characteristic of entrepreneurship is the intention to start a business. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to examine factors that influence entrepreneurial intention in high school students in Kenya. Specifically, the study aimed at determining if there were relationships between the perceptions of desirability, and feasibility of entrepreneurship with entrepreneurial intention of the students, identifying any difference in these perceptions with students of different backgrounds, and developing a model to predict entrepreneurship in the students. The study, therefore, tested how well Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior applied in the Kenyan situation. A questionnaire was developed and administered to 969 final year high school students at a critical important point in their career decision making. Participants were selected using a combined convenience and random sampling technique, considering gender, rural/urban location, cost, and accessibility. Survey was the major method of data collection. Data analysis methods included descriptive statistics, correlation, ANOVA, factor analysis, effect size, and regression analysis. iii The findings of this study corroborate results from past studies. Attitudes are found to influence intention, and the attitudes to be moderated by individual background factors. Perceived personal desirability of entrepreneurship was found to have the greatest influence on entrepreneurial intention and perceived feasibility the lowest. The study findings also showed that perceived social desirability and feasibility of entrepreneurship contributed to perception of personal desirability, and that the background factors, including gender and prior experience, influenced entrepreneurial intention both directly and indirectly. In addition, based on the literature reviewed, the study finds that entrepreneurship promotion requires reduction of the high small business mortality rate and creation of both entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial opportunities (Kruger, 2000; Shane & Venkataraman, 2000). These findings have theoretical and practical implications for researchers, policy makers, teachers, and other entrepreneurship practitioners in Kenya.

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This dissertation comprises three chapters. The first chapter motivates the use of a novel data set combining survey and administrative sources for the study of internal labor migration. By following a sample of individuals from the American Community Survey (ACS) across their employment outcomes over time according to the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) database, I construct a measure of geographic labor mobility that allows me to exploit information about individuals prior to their move. This enables me to explore aspects of the migration decision, such as homeownership and employment status, in ways that have not previously been possible. In the second chapter, I use this data set to test the theory that falling home prices affect a worker’s propensity to take a job in a different metropolitan area from where he is currently located. Employing a within-CBSA and time estimation that compares homeowners to renters in their propensities to relocate for jobs, I find that homeowners who have experienced declines in the nominal value of their homes are approximately 12% less likely than average to take a new job in a location outside of the metropolitan area where they currently reside. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that housing lock-in has contributed to the decline in labor mobility of homeowners during the recent housing bust. The third chapter focuses on a sample of unemployed workers in the same data set, in order to compare the unemployment durations of those who find subsequent employment by relocating to a new metropolitan area, versus those who find employment in their original location. Using an instrumental variables strategy to address the endogeneity of the migration decision, I find that out-migrating for a new job significantly reduces the time to re-employment. These results stand in contrast to OLS estimates, which suggest that those who move have longer unemployment durations. This implies that those who migrate for jobs in the data may be particularly disadvantaged in their ability to find employment, and thus have strong short-term incentives to relocate.

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The fundamental objective for health research is to determine whether changes should be made to clinical decisions. Decisions made by veterinary surgeons in the light of new research evidence are known to be influenced by their prior beliefs, especially their initial opinions about the plausibility of possible results. In this paper, clinical trial results for a bovine mastitis control plan were evaluated within a Bayesian context, to incorporate a community of prior distributions that represented a spectrum of clinical prior beliefs. The aim was to quantify the effect of veterinary surgeons’ initial viewpoints on the interpretation of the trial results. A Bayesian analysis was conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures. Stochastic models included a financial cost attributed to a change in clinical mastitis following implementation of the control plan. Prior distributions were incorporated that covered a realistic range of possible clinical viewpoints, including scepticism, enthusiasm and uncertainty. Posterior distributions revealed important differences in the financial gain that clinicians with different starting viewpoints would anticipate from the mastitis control plan, given the actual research results. For example, a severe sceptic would ascribe a probability of 0.50 for a return of <£5 per cow in an average herd that implemented the plan, whereas an enthusiast would ascribe this probability for a return of >£20 per cow. Simulations using increased trial sizes indicated that if the original study was four times as large, an initial sceptic would be more convinced about the efficacy of the control plan but would still anticipate less financial return than an initial enthusiast would anticipate after the original study. In conclusion, it is possible to estimate how clinicians’ prior beliefs influence their interpretation of research evidence. Further research on the extent to which different interpretations of evidence result in changes to clinical practice would be worthwhile.