Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiative effects of aerosols at an urban location in southern India: Observations versus model

The radiative impact of aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic climate perturbations. Here we have used independent ground-based radiometer measurements made simultaneously with comprehensive measurements of aerosol microphysical and optical properties at a highly populated urban site, Bangalore (13.02 degrees N, 77.6 degrees E) in southern India during a dedicated campaign during winter of 2004 and summer and pre-monsoon season of 2005. We have also used longer term measurements carried out at this site to present general features of aerosols over this region. The aerosol radiative impact assessments were made from direct measurements of ground reaching irradiance as well as by incorporating measured aerosol properties into a radiative transfer model. Large discrepancies were observed between measured and modeled (using radiative transfer models, which employed measured aerosol properties) radiative impacts. It appears that the presence of elevated aerosol layers and (or) inappropriate description of aerosol state of mixing are (is) responsible for the discrepancies. On a monthly scale reduction of surface irradiance due to the presence of aerosols (estimated using radiative flux measurements) varies from 30 to 65 W m(-2). The lowest values in surface radiative impact were observed during June when there is large reduction in aerosol as a consequence of monsoon rainfall. Large increase in aerosol-induced surface radiative impact was observed from winter to summer. Our investigations re-iterate the inadequacy of aerosol measurements at the surface alone and importance of representing column properties (using vertical profiles) accurately in order to assess aerosol-induced climate changes accurately. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature-Sensitive Src-Transformed Mdck Cells nn 3d Cultures as a Model of Malignant Transformation of Epithelial Cells

The equilibrium between cell proliferation, differentiation, and apoptosis is crucial for maintaining homeostasis in epithelial tissues. In order for the epithelium to function properly, individual cells must gain normal structural and functional polarity. The junctional proteins have an important role both in binding the cells together and in taking part in cell signaling. Cadherins form adherens junctions. Cadherins initiate the polarization process by first recognizing and binding the neighboring cells together, and then guiding the formation of tight junctions. Tight junctions form a barrier in dividing the plasma membranes to apical and basolateral membrane domains. In glandular tissues, single layered and polarized epithelium is folded into tubes or spheres, in which the basal side of the epithelial layer faces the outer basal membrane, and the apical side the lumen. In carcinogenesis, the differentiated architecture of an epithelial layer is disrupted. Filling of the luminal space is a hallmark of early epithelial tumors in tubular and glandular structures. In order for the transformed tumor cells to populate the lumen, enhanced proliferation as well as inhibition of apoptosis is required. Most advances in cancer biology have been achieved by using two-dimensional (2D) cell culture models, in which the cells are cultured on flat surfaces as monolayers. However, the 2D cultures are limited in their capacity to recapitulate the structural and functional features of tubular structures and to represent cell growth and differentiation in vivo. The development of three-dimensional (3D) cell culture methods enables the cells to grow and to be studied in a more natural environment. Despite the wide use of 2D cell culture models and the development of novel 3D culture methods, it is not clear how the change of the dimensionality of culture conditions alters the polarization and transformation process and the molecular mechanisms behind them. Src is a well-known oncogene. It is found in focal and adherens junctions of cultured cells. Active src disrupts cell-cell junctions and interferes with cell-matrix binding. It promotes cell motility and survival. Src transformation in 2D disrupts adherens junctions and the fibroblastic phenotype of the cells. In 3D, the adherens junctions are weakened, and in glandular structures, the lumen is filled with nonpolarized vital cells. Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells are an epithelial cell type commonly used as a model for cell polarization. Its-src-transformed variants are useful model systems for analyzing the changes in cell morphology, and they play a role in src-induced malignant transformation. This study investigates src-transformed cells in 3D cell cultures as a model for malignant transformation. The following questions were posed. Firstly: What is the role of the composition and stiffness of the extracellular matrix (ECM) on the polarization and transformation of ts v-src MDCK cells in 3D cell cultures? Secondly: How do the culture conditions affect gene expression? What is the effect of v-src transformation in 2D and in 3D cell models? How does the shift from 2D to 3D affect cell polarity and gene expression? Thirdly: What is the role of survivin and its regulator phosphatase and tensin homolog protein (PTEN) in cell polarization and transformation, and in determining cell fate? How does their expression correlate with impaired mitochondrial function in transformed cells? In order to answer the above questions, novel methods of culturing and monitoring cells had to be created: novel 3D methods of culturing epithelial cells were engineered, enabling real time monitoring of a polarization and transformation process, and functional testing of 3D cell cultures. Novel 3D cell culture models and imaging techniques were created for the study. Attention was focused especially on confocal microscopy and live-cell imaging. Src-transformation disturbed the polarization of the epithelium by disrupting cell adhesion, and sensitized the cells to their environment. With active src, the morphology of the cell cluster depended on the composition and stiffness of the matrix. Gene expression studies revealed a broader impact of src transformation than mere continuous activity of src-kinase. In 2D cultures, src transformation altered the expression of immunological, actin cytoskeleton and extracellular matrix (ECM). In 3D, the genes regulating cell division, inhibition of apoptosis, cell metabolism, mitochondrial function, actin cytoskeleton and mechano-sensing proteins were altered. Surprisingly, changing the culture conditions from 2D to 3D affected also gene expression considerably. The microarray hit survivin, an inhibitor of apoptosis, played a crucial role in the survival and proliferation of src-transformed cells.

Unraveling the helix of change : An activity-theoretical study of health care change efforts and their consequences

M.A. (Educ.) Anu Kajamaa from the University of Helsinki, Center for Research on Activity, Development and Learning (CRADLE), examines change efforts and their consequences in health care in the public sector. The aim of her academic dissertation is, by providing a new conceptual framework, to widen our understanding of organizational change efforts and their consequences and managerial challenges. Despite the multiple change efforts, the results of health care development projects have not been very promising, and many developmental needs and managerial challenges exist. The study challenges the predominant, well-framed health care change paradigm and calls for an expanded view to explore the underlying issues and multiplicities of change efforts and their consequences. The study asks what kind of expanded conceptual framework is needed to better understand organizational change as transcending currently dominant oppositions in management thinking, specifically in the field of health care. The study includes five explorative case studies of health care change efforts and their consequences in Finland. Theory and practice are tightly interconnected in the study. The methodology of the study integrates the ethnography of organizational change, a narrative approach and cultural-historical activity theory. From the stance of activity theory, historicity, contradictions, locality and employee participation play significant roles in developing health care. The empirical data of the study has mainly been collected in two projects, funded by the Finnish Work Environment Fund. The data was collected in public sector health care organizations during the years 2004-2010. By exploring the oppositions between distinct views on organizational change and the multi-site, multi-level and multi-logic of organizational change, the study develops an expanded, multidimensional activity-theoretical framework on organizational change and management thinking. The findings of the study contribute to activity theory and organization studies, and provide information for health care management and practitioners. The study illuminates that continuous development efforts bridged to one another and anchored to collectively created new activity models can lead to significant improvements and organizational learning in health care. The study presents such expansive learning processes. The ways of conducting change efforts in organizations play a critical role in the creation of collective new practices and tools and in establishing ownership over them. Some of the studied change efforts were discontinuous or encapsulated, not benefiting the larger whole. The study shows that the stagnation and unexpected consequences of change efforts relate to the unconnectedness of the different organizational sites, levels and logics. If not dealt with, the unintended consequences such as obstacles, breaks and conflicts may stem promising change and learning processes.

A Study on Effect of Wetting on Mechanism of Coalescence in a Model Coalescer

In order to depict the mechanism of coalescence in fibrous bed coalescers, a model coalescer was fabricated. Both water/oil and oil/water dispersions were run through this model coalescer to check for coalescence on PTFE and glass surfaces. The equilibrium contact angle and the dynamic contact angle of the dispersed drops were measured on these surfaces in the presence of the continuous phase. Coalescence was monitored using a microscope. Based on these observations a mechanism of coalescence in the model coalescer is proposed. Different modes of coalescence are correlated to the equilibrium contact angle and the dynamic contact angle. Deposition of dirt on the coalescing surface is observed to result in change of wettability, leading to redispersion of the already coalesced dispersed phase into larger droplets.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO2. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

A quasi-steady performance prediction model for dynamic characteristics of a volute pump

A performance prediction model generally applicable for volute-type centrifugal pumps has been extended to predict the dynamic characteristics of a pump during its normal starting and stopping periods. Experiments have been conducted on a volute pump with different valve openings to study the dynamic behaviour of the pump during normal start-up and stopping, when a small length of discharge pipeline is connected to the discharge flange of the pump. Such experiments have also been conducted when the test pump was part of a hydraulic system, an experimental rig, where it is pumping against three similar pumps, known as supply pumps, connected in series, with the supply pumps kept idle or running. Instantaneous rotational speed, flowrate, and delivery and suction pressures of the pump were recorded and it was observed in all the tested cases that the change of pump behaviour during the transient period was quasi-steady, which validates the quasi-steady approach presented in this paper. The nature of variation of parameters during the transients has been discussed. The model-predicted dynamic head-capacity curves agree well with the experimental data for almost all the tested cases.

Effect of Melt Convection on The Optimum Thermal Design Of Heat Sinks With Phase Change Material

In this paper, the role of melt convection on the performance of heat sinks with phase change material (PCM) is investigated numerically. The heat sink consists of aluminum plate fins embedded in PCM, and is subjected to heat flux supplied from the bottom. A single-domain enthalpy-based CFD model is developed, which is capable of simulating the phase change process and the associated melt convection. The CFD model is coupled with a genetic algorithm for carrying out the optimization. Two cases are considered, namely, one without melt convection (i.e., conduction heat transfer analysis), and the other with convection. It is found that the geometrical optimizations of heat sinks are different for the two cases, indicating the importance of melt convection in the design of heat sinks with PCMs. In the case of conduction analysis, the optimum width of half fin (i.e., sum of half pitch and half fin thickness) is a constant, which is in good agreement with results reported in the literature. On the other hand, if melt convection is considered, the optimum half fin width depends on the effective thermal diffusivity due to conduction and convection. With melt convection, the optimized design results in a significant improvement of operational time.

Steady state three-dimensional mathematical model for cupola

A three-dimensional mathematical model has been developed to simulate the gas flow, composition, and temperature profiles inside a cupola. Comparison of the model with the reported experimental data shows the presence of a zone with low combustion rate at the tuyere level. For a 24 in (610 mm) cupola with four rows of tuyeres, the combustion zones from each tuyere overlap each other, forming an overall combustion zone of cylindrical shape of height similar to 0.2 m. Using the model, it is found that the spout temperature initially increases with increasing blast velocity and attains a maximum. Further increase in blast velocity does not change the spout temperature. This suggests that smaller size tuyeres and higher permeability of the bed can give superior cupola performance. (C) 1997 The Institute of Materials.

A cold model study of raceway hysteresis

The effect of a gas flow field on the size of raceway has been studied experimentally using a two-dimensional (2-D) cold model. It is observed that as the blast velocity from the tuyere increases, raceway size increases, and when the blast velocity is decreased from its highest value, raceway size does not change much until the velocity reaches a critical velocity. Below the critical velocity, raceway size decreases with decreasing velocity but is always larger than that for the same velocity when the velocity increased. This phenomenon is called "raceway hysteresis." Raceway hysteresis has been studied in the presence of different gas flow rates and different particle densities. Raceway hysteresis has been observed in all the experiments. The effect of liquid flow, with various superficial velocities, on raceway hysteresis has also been studied. A study of raceway size hysteresis shows that interparticle and particle-wall friction have a very large effect on raceway size. A hypothesis has been proposed to describe the hysteresis phenomenon in the packed beds. The relevance of hysteresis to blast furnace raceways has been discussed. Existing literature correlations for raceway size ignore the frictional effects. Therefore, their applicability to the ironmaking blast furnace is questionable.

Analytical solutions for heat transfer during cyclic melting and freezing of a phase change material used in electronic or electrical packaging

In this paper we develop an analytical heat transfer model, which is capable of analyzing cyclic melting and solidification processes of a phase change material used in the context of electronics cooling systems. The model is essentially based on conduction heat transfer, with treatments for convection and radiation embedded inside. The whole solution domain is first divided into two main sub-domains, namely, the melting sub-domain and the solidification sub-domain. Each sub-domain is then analyzed for a number of temporal regimes. Accordingly, analytical solutions for temperature distribution within each subdomain are formulated either using a semi-infinity consideration, or employing a method of quasi-steady state, depending on the applicability. The solution modules are subsequently united, leading to a closed-form solution for the entire problem. The analytical solutions are then compared with experimental and numerical solutions for a benchmark problem quoted in the literature, and excellent agreements can be observed.